Analysis: In debt row, hints of emerging-economy crises — from Reuters by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
WASHINGTON | Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:59pm EDT
Debt default. A ratings downgrade. Political deadlock. Such terms, once associated primarily with the developing world, now abound in the mighty United States.

 

What the Kindle textbook rental program portends for higher education — from xplana.com by Rob Reynolds

Excerpt:

Almost as soon as the press release hit the Internet yesterday, I began fielding questions about Amazon’s new Kindle textbook rental program. What does this mean for publishers? How will this affect textbook prices? What impact will it have on institutions and their students?

While the general answer to all of these questions is “We don’t know yet,” there are a number of projections I think we can make based on current market trends. Before launching into those projections, however, let’s take a quick look at what the Kindle textbook rental program actually offers.

BlackBerry’s blues continue as platform falls to third place – from mashable.com by Todd Wasserman

Excerpt:

It’s another humiliating day for Research In Motion. The company’s BlackBerry, which once owned 55% of the smartphone market, has now fallen to third place with less than a quarter share, according to comScore.

To make matters worse, BlackBerry’s share seems to be falling pretty quickly. In February, RIM was number two in the market with 28.9%, based on an average of the previous three months. By May, RIM’s share had dropped 4.2% to 24.7%, behind Apple’s iOS with 26.6% and Google’s Android platform with 38.1%.

 

From DSC:
RIM did not innovate fast enough. They did not reinvent themselves as Apple has done, and now they are paying the price. The hurt has set in. This is a good reminder to all of us to constantly be reinventing our organizations and ourselves.

 


 Paying Off Student Loans Has Become More Difficult

 

Also see:

 

The sky has not fallen — but pieces of it could soon be hitting a campus near you.

That is one way of summing up the findings of Inside Higher Ed’s first-ever Survey of College and University Business Officers, released today in advance of the annual meeting of the National Association of College and University Business Officers. (A copy of the survey report can be found here.)

Colleges in Crisis - Harvard Magazine -- July-August 2011

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Surveys of the American public and of more than 1,000 college and university presidents, conducted this past spring by the Pew Research Center in association with the Chronicle of Higher Education, revealed significant concerns not only about the costs of such education, but also about its direction and goals.

More fundamentally, the business model that has characterized American higher education is at—or even past—its breaking point. Many institutions are increasingly beset by financial difficulties, and the meltdown since 2008 is but a shadow of what is to come. Undergraduate tuition has risen dramatically: at a 6.3 percent annual clip for nearly the last three decades—even faster than the much-decried 4.9 percent annual cost increases plaguing the healthcare industry. The full increase in the price of higher education has actually been hidden from many students and families over the years because gifts from alumni, earnings from private university endowments, subsidies from state tax revenues for public universities, and federal subsidies for students have been used to mitigate some costs. But universities are exhausting these mechanisms.


A Thriving, Disruptive Innovation
Just at the moment when these challenges to established higher education have arisen and compounded, another group of universities has arisen whose financial health is strong and enrollments have been booming. And yet the brands of these schools are weak and their campuses far from glamorous; sometimes the campuses are even nonexistent from the perspective of students, as online learning has largely driven their growth. How could this upstart group be so successful when the rest of higher education is treading water at best?

DIY U: The Future Of Learning [Video] — from FastCompany.com by Anya Kamenetz
From Khan Academy and TED Talks to instructional YouTube videos, the future of learning is open and free.


DYI: The future of learning

 


A related comment from DSC:


I have it that higher ed is a bubble and if an increasingly larger group of people can’t afford ityet still want it — then, in my book, that’s a major problem.

I’ll use myself as an example. My wife and I could not begin to afford to send our kids to many of the colleges and universities out there right now — today, in 2011! (Let alone in 2017+ when our kids start hitting the college scene.)  I should note that our kids are doing well in school and are very talented, hard workers.  I should also point out that my wife and I place a very high value on being educated and we are both trying to pass that value along to the next generation.

But if you tell me that higher ed is not a bubble, the first question I will ask you (besides what planet are you living on) is what’s the gross income for your household? If you are making close to 6 figures, I highly doubt that your perspective will be the same as that of folks from households who are making $20,000-$50,000 a year. In fact, my hunch is that those who say higher ed is not a bubble are:

  • Upper middle class to upper class (i.e. wealthy in the eyes of many in the world today)
  • Folks who don’t have to worry about where their next paycheck is coming from (nor have they had to live like that in years!); that is, they are doing quite well these days…living quite comfortably
  • College educated (nothing wrong with that!)
  • Potentially involved with higher ed — or at least want to maintain the status quo
  • Folks who do not have children

My take on this is that all of us in higher education need to figure out how we can greatly reduce the price of higher education. It shouldn’t be how well you understand the system or how many hours of work you have done to figure out the grants, loans, etc. that exist out there.

NEVER again should we be pleased with ANY sort of increase in tuition. Never again should we say, “Well, our tuition only went up by ___% which is the smallest increase in our history (or the smallest increase relative to our competition…or the smallest in our state/country/nation).”

Such a situation is causing a backlash against the current higher education environment/setup.
As such, we need to constantly be looking to reinvent ourselves — and to staying relevant.

 

Addendum on 6/17/11:

Potential disrupters in the higher education space — Lloyd Armstrong, University Professor and Provost Emeritus at the University of Southern California

Excerpt:

…I thought it useful to introduce a blogroll on some companies, institutions, think tanks, etc. that seem to me to be doing interesting things that might well turn out to be disruptive for various aspects higher education, and/or sustaining for others. The blogroll will not seek to be all-inclusive. Rather, it will be indicative of areas in which I find that very interesting things are happening. I will  add more sites to the roll from time to time as I see things that attract my interest.

The original set of sites I have chosen give an idea of some of the areas that I find to be interesting from the standpoint of disruption of traditional higher education. My descriptions of each are too short to serve them well, so follow some of the links for more details. Most are working on concepts that can be used in both sustaining and disrupting modes.

From ‘gainful employment’ to lower college costs — from The WashingtonPost.com by Matt Miller

Excerpt (extra emphasis by DSC):

But whatever happens as these new rules are implemented in next few years, for-profit colleges will never get out from under a cloud, nor make good on their potential social contribution, until they pass on to students the benefit of the lower educational cost structures they are creating. To date, they’ve been reluctant to do so, because, for public companies especially, it seems tantamount to ignoring the shareholder interest in maximizing profits.

But this is shortsighted. For one thing, it ensures a perennial political backlash, which can’t serve shareholders over time. And beyond this, as a business matter, it means there’s a huge opening for any number of “Wal-Marts of higher ed” to win a vast market of underserved or overindebted young Americans (or mid-career workers who seek training) who desperately need affordable, high-quality educational services. The strategy should be to lower costs, lower prices and “make it up on the volume.” The firms that do this and earn a reputation for quality will force the traditional college world to reexamine its own inefficient practices, to the lasting benefit of students and the governments that fund them.

 

From DSC:
Also see:

 

Is Higher Education Ready for “The Education Bubble”? — from CampusTechnology.com by Trent Batson

Excerpts:

American higher education–the jewel in the global crown of universal education, with nearly a quarter of the total number of higher education institutions in the world, and including graduate programs that are the envy of the world–is facing the prospect of being the next bubble to burst. Technology is both a culprit and a promising ally.

The spread of information technology, and its infusion into our culture, has opened the world to learning opportunities–raising expectations for college graduates and changing the terms of success.

Is American higher education ready to either prevent the bubble from bursting or to weather the storm when it does burst? And what is the bubble?

The bubble, as we can see by all the dimensions just described, is, in fact, a potential “perfect storm.”

But this effort must also result from a presidential-level decree: “The learning theory that fit so well in our culture and with the dominant technology pre-1995 (print-based and paper-based technologies), now is not working very well for any of us, so we have to change. Each of you on campus has sincerely and devotedly committed yourselves fully to learning, but now we know that our learning epistemology is less and less appropriate. This is not your fault; it is simply a time of incredible human growth; it is a time of rapid evolution in our culture; a time of re-shaping our economy. We must transform or become irrelevant.”

 

From DSC:
Good to see I have some company in these perspectives; thanks for the article Trent. Also see:

  • The Forthcoming Walmart of Education
  • The below graphics that I created a while back reflecting on whether there was a bubble building within higher ed (2/16/09) as well some of the elements of “The Perfect Storm in Higher Education” (9/10/10).
  • The point is we need a response to these trends — we don’t want to be broadsided.

 

The perfect storm in higher ed -- by Daniel S. Christian

Is higher ed the next bubble?

 

Daniel S. Christian: My concerns with just maintaining the status quo (from 2009).

From 5/21/09

Update on “Perspectives on the elephant of college pricing” — by Lloyd Armstrong, University Professor and Provost Emeritus at the University of Southern California

Excerpt/conclusion:

The situation from all perspectives is obviously greatly exacerbated by the current unusually bad economic times. Pressures to increase discounting have been enormous for many institutions, especially those whose selectivity is lower. Economic times eventually will get better, of course, but NACUBO warns that it may be some time before institutions see the year-to- year gains in net tuition revenue they experienced before the beginning of the economic downturn. In fact, there are increasing indications that there may not ever be a return to such gains for many institutions.  There are serious questions being raised by the general public regarding whether higher education produces a value equal to its cost. This issue will hit those institutions that are “non-elite” most strongly, and make it increasingly difficult for them to raise tuition at the historic rate.   It also may well be the case that the American public will be more cautious in taking on loans in the future, and thus will look much more carefully at the concept that a loan is really decreasing the net cost of education (as the current terminology implies). Should this happen, it could significantly raise pressure to raise grant aid, leading to higher discount rates.

All in all, the data clearly indicate that the current cost/price model of higher education is working less well with each passing year from each of the three perspectives. Is it time to start thinking of sustainable alternatives?

Stepping up to the Genius Bar — from CampusTechnology.com by John Waters
As they reconsider their role on campus, college bookstores take inspiration from the Apple Store.

Excerpt:

“The advent of this technology isn’t going to eliminate the need for college bookstores,” insists Isabella Hinds, director of digital strategies and products for Follett Higher Education Group. “It’s disruptive–or it will be, eventually–but the role of the bookstore is already evolving. The college bookstore of the future is likely to be a very different environment. The digital textbook is going to be one of a range of course-material offerings…delivered on a variety of devices. As these options proliferate, the expertise of the bookstore personnel will be much more important. They will become trusted advisers who can talk knowledgeably about the strengths and weaknesses of increasingly sophisticated and complex products.”

In other words, the college bookstore of the future is going to look a lot like an Apple Store.

Higher education’s toughest test — from by Jon Bischke and Semil Shah

In the debate sparked by Peter Thiel’s “20 Under 20 Fellowship” (which pays bright students to drop out of college), one fact stands out: the cost of U.S. post-secondary education is spiraling upward, out of control. Thiel calls this a “bubble,” similar to the sub-prime mortgage crisis, where hopeful property owners over-leveraged themselves to lay claim to a coveted piece of the American dream: home ownership.

Today, however, the credentialing provided by universities is becoming decoupled from the knowledge and skills acquired by students. The cost of obtaining learning materials is falling, with OpenCourseWare resources from MIT and iTunes U leading the charge. Classes can be taken online on sites like Udemy and eduFire, either for free or a fraction of the cost to learn similar material at a university, and sites like Veri, which recently launched at TechStars NYC Demo Day, aims to organize and spread one’s accumulated knowledge.

The fresh cadavers from the shakeouts in the music and publishing industries should provide motivation to presidents, chancellors, and provosts to look seriously at this problem, as many of the same dynamics that disrupted those industries are now at play in higher education. As students around the world start preparing for their year-end exams, it will be interesting to see how seriously leaders of universities prepare for one of the toughest tests that they’ll ever face.

 

From DSC:
I have been trying to get these trends/warnings/messages across to others for years — more people are starting to raise the same red flags on some of these same topics as well.

There is great danger in the status quo these days. Don’t get me wrong — I’m a firm believer in education, especially liberal arts education. But the traditional model is simply not sustainable it continually shuts more people out of the system and/or puts such a burden on students’ backs as to significantly influence — if not downright limit — their future options and experiences.

But as the saying goes, “Change is optional — survival is not mandatory.”


Addendum:

 

 

A hugely powerful vision: A potent addition to our learning ecosystems of the future

 

Daniel Christian:
A Vision of Our Future Learning Ecosystems


In the near future, as the computer, the television, the telephone (and more) continues to converge, we will most likely enjoy even more powerful capabilities to conveniently create and share our content as well as participate in a global learning ecosystem — whether that be from within our homes and/or from within our schools, colleges, universities and businesses throughout the world.

We will be teachers and students at the same time — even within the same hour — with online-based learning exchanges taking place all over the virtual and physical world.  Subject Matter Experts (SME’s) — in the form of online-based tutors, instructors, teachers, and professors — will be available on demand. Even more powerful/accurate/helpful learning engines will be involved behind the scenes in delivering up personalized, customized learning — available 24x7x365.  Cloud-based learner profiles may enter the equation as well.

The chances for creativity,  innovation, and entrepreneurship that are coming will be mind-blowing! What employers will be looking for — and where they can look for it — may change as well.

What we know today as the “television” will most likely play a significant role in this learning ecosystem of the future. But it won’t be like the TV we’ve come to know. It will be much more interactive and will be aware of who is using it — and what that person is interested in learning about. Technologies/applications like Apple’s AirPlay will become more standard, allowing a person to move from device to device without missing a  beat. Transmedia storytellers will thrive in this environment!

Much of the professionally done content will be created by teams of specialists, including the publishers of educational content, and the in-house teams of specialists within colleges, universities, and corporations around the globe. Perhaps consortiums of colleges/universities will each contribute some of the content — more readily accepting previous coursework that was delivered via their consortium’s membership.

An additional thought regarding higher education and K-12 and their Smart Classrooms/Spaces:
For input devices…
The “chalkboards” of the future may be transparent, or they may be on top of a drawing board-sized table or they may be tablet-based. But whatever form they take and whatever is displayed upon them, the ability to annotate will be there; with the resulting graphics saved and instantly distributed. (Eventually, we may get to voice-controlled Smart Classrooms, but we have a ways to go in that area…)

Below are some of the graphics that capture a bit of what I’m seeing in my mind…and in our futures.

Alternatively available as a PowerPoint Presentation (audio forthcoming in a future version)

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

— from Daniel S. Christian | April 2011

See also:

Addendum on 4-14-11:

 

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