The 2031 Crisis in Higher Education: a stark scenario — from bryanalexander.org by Bryan Alexander — with commentary on a posting by Matthew F. Wilson, Ph.D.
Today’s post is about a scenario for higher ed’s future. It’s not from me, but created by one Matthew F. Wilson, director of Research Translation and AI Strategy at Baylor’s Institute for Global Human Flourishing. “The 2031 Crisis in Higher Education” is a dark one, imagining an accelerating decline for American colleges and universities.
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One key assumption of this scenario is that most colleges and universities will be unable to redesign themselves for the changing time.
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All of that said, it’s a fascinating and daunting scenario. It’s an interesting vision of my post-peak higher ed world.
A graphic from Matthew Wilson:
From DSC:
From what I can tell and have read, the things in the above graphic are already happening — and have been happening for some time now.
Also, I don’t think traditional institutions of higher education have the culture(s) it takes to change. So that part about colleges and U’s not being able to redesign themselves for the changing times could easily turn out to be the case.
Instructional Design Trends: What’s Shaping The Future Of Learning? — from elearningindustry.com by Christopher Pappas
Table of contents
1. Why Instructional Design Is Entering A New Era
2. The State Of Instructional Design Today
3. Top Instructional Design Trends Shaping 2026
4. The Future Of Instructional Design And Technology

Also from elearningindustry.com, see:
The Future Of Personalized Learning And The Leaders Being Trained To Deliver It — by Ryan Ayers
Table of contents
1. Personalized Learning For Future Leaders
2. Where Personalized Learning Is Heading
3. What Implementing Personalized Learning At Scale Actually Requires
4. The Educational Leaders Being Trained To Deliver This Future
5. Conclusion
Tuition discount rate reaches 57% for private nonprofits, NACUBO says — from highereddive.com by Ben Unglesbee
Price cuts are getting even deeper for first-year undergraduates, while net tuition revenue has fallen, according to the organization.
Early data from the 2025-26 academic year shows historically deep tuition discounts getting even deeper at private nonprofit colleges, according to a study released Monday from the National Association of College and University Business Officers.
For first-time undergraduates, the tuition discount rate at these colleges is projected to reach 57.1% in the current academic year. That’s up from 54.5% from the year before, and the highest point in the past decade. For all undergraduates, the discount rate is poised to hit 51.3%, up from 50% last year and above the most recent peak at 50.8% in 2022-23.
However, revenue declines across the undergraduate body pose difficulties for tuition-dependent colleges. It “suggests that retention alone is not enough to eliminate financial strain at many tuition-dependent institutions,” NACUBO said in its report.





