future of higher education

2019 Horizon Report Higher Education Edition

On 04/25/2019, in 21st century, A/V -- audio/visual, active learning, adjunct faculty, algorithms, analytics, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning / Deep Learning, blended learning, Blockchain, change, changing business models, colleges, community colleges, credentialing, curriculum, data mining, digital learning, distance education, education technology, educational games / serious games, emerging technologies, face-to-face, faculty, formal learning, future of higher education, higher education, hybrid learning, ideas, innovation, instructional design, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, internet, Law Schools, learning, Learning Agents, learning ecosystem, learning spaces, Mixed reality, Mobile learning, new business models, online learning, personalized/customized learning, student-related, teaching & learning, teaching online, Technologies for your home, technology (general), tools, trends, United States, user experience (UX), XR - extended reality, by Daniel Christian

The finalized 2019 Horizon Report Higher Education Edition (from library.educause.edu) was just released on 4/23/19.

Excerpt:

Key Trends Accelerating Technology Adoption in Higher Education:

Short-Term—Driving technology adoption in higher education for the next one to two years

Redesigning Learning Spaces
Blended Learning Designs

Mid-Term—Driving technology adoption in higher education for the next three to five years

Advancing Cultures of Innovation
Growing Focus on Measuring Learning

Long-Term—Driving technology adoption in higher education for five or more years

Rethinking How Institutions Work
Modularized and Disaggregated Degrees

Minerva’s Innovative Platform Makes Quality Higher Ed Personal and Affordable [Vander Ark]

On 04/22/2019, in 1:1 / 1:World, 21st century, 24x7x365 access, A/V -- audio/visual, active learning, adult learning, business side of he, career development, change, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, collaboration, colleges, communications, communities of practice, community colleges, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, Daniel S. Christian, distance education, education technology, engagement / engaging students, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, global / globalization, higher education, ideas, innovation, learning, learning ecosystem, learning from the living [class] room, learning hubs, learning spaces, Lifelong learning, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more choice more control, online learning, online tutoring, platforms, second screen apps, society, student-related, teaching & learning, teaching online, Technologies for your home, television, tools, training / L&D, United States, universities, user experience (UX), Using teams, vendors, videoconferencing, vision, Walmart of Education --> New Amazon.com of Higher Education, webinars, by Daniel Christian

Minerva’s Innovative Platform Makes Quality Higher Ed Personal and Affordable — from linkedin.com by Tom Vander Ark

Excerpt:

The first external partner, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), loved the course design and platform but told Nelson they couldn’t afford to teach 15 students at a time. The Minerva team realized that to be applicable at major universities, active learning needed to be scalable.

Starting this summer, a new version of Forum will be available for classes of up to 400 at a time. For students, it will still feel like a small seminar. They’ll see the professor, themselves, and a dozen other students. Forum will manage the movement of students from screen to screen. “Everybody thinks they are in the main room,” said Nelson.
…
Forum enables real-time polling and helps professors create and manage breakout groups.
…
Big Implications
With Forum, “For the first time you can deliver better than Ivy League education at absurdly low cost,” said Nelson.

Online courses and MOOCs just repackaged the same format and just offered it with less interaction. As new Forum partners will demonstrate, “It’s possible to deliver a year of undergraduate education that is vastly superior for under $5,000 per student,” added Nelson.

He’s excited to offer a turnkey university solution that, for partners like Oxford Teachers Academy, will allow new degree pathways for paraprofessionals that can work, learn, and earn a degree and certification.

Perhaps another piece of the puzzle is falling into place…

The Growing Profile of Non-Degree Credentials: Diving Deeper into ‘Education Credentials Come of Age’ [Gallagher]

On 04/17/2019, in 21st century, accreditation, assessment, career development, collaboration, colleges, communities of practice, community colleges, competency-based learning/education, Content aggregration, content development, content repositories, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, credentialing, dangers of the status quo, digital learning, distance education, face-to-face, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, heutagogy, higher education, ideas, innovation, learning, learning ecosystem, learning from the living [class] room, liberal arts, Lifelong learning, Michigan, Microlearning, Microsoft, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more choice more control, new business models, online learning, platforms, student-related, technology (general), training / L&D, trends, universities, user experience (UX), vendors, Walmart of Education --> New Amazon.com of Higher Education, web-based collaboration, by Daniel Christian

The Growing Profile of Non-Degree Credentials: Diving Deeper into ‘Education Credentials Come of Age’ — from evolllution.com by Sean Gallagher
Higher education is entering a “golden age” of lifelong learning and that will mean a spike in demand for credentials. If postsecondary institutions want to compete in a crowded market, they need to change fast.

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

One of the first levels of opportunity is simply embedding the skills that are demanded in the job market into educational programs. Education certainly has its own merits independent of professional outcomes. But critics of higher education who suggest graduates aren’t prepared for the workforce have a point in terms of the opportunity for greater job market alignment, and less of an “ivory tower” mentality at many institutions. Importantly, this does not mean that there isn’t value in the liberal arts and in broader ways of thinking—problem solving, leadership, critical thinking, analysis, and writing are among the very top skills demanded by employers across all educational levels. These are foundational and independent of technical skills.

The second opportunity is building an ecosystem for better documentation and sharing of skills—in a sense what investor Ryan Craig has termed a “competency marketplace.” Employers’ reliance on college degrees as relatively blunt signals of skill and ability is partly driven by the fact that there aren’t many strong alternatives. Technology—and the growth of platforms like LinkedIn, ePortfolios and online assessments—is changing the game. One example is digital badges, which were originally often positioned as substitutes to degrees or certificates.

Instead, I believe digital badges are a supplement to degrees and we’re increasingly seeing badges—short microcredentials that discretely and digitally document competency—woven into degree programs, from the community college to the graduate degree level.

However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is demanding more “agile” and shorter-form approaches to education. Many institutions are making this a strategic priority, especially as we read the evolution of trends in the global job market and soon enter the 2020s.

Online education—which in all its forms continues to slowly and steadily grow its market share in terms of all higher ed instruction—is certainly an enabler of this vision, given what we know about pedagogy and the ability to digitally document outcomes.

In addition, 64 percent of the HR leaders we surveyed said that the need for ongoing lifelong learning will demand higher levels of education and more credentials in the future.

Along these lines of online-based collaboration and learning,
go to the 34 minute mark of this video:

From DSC:
The various pieces are coming together to build the next generation learning platform. Although no one has all of the pieces yet, the needs/trends/signals are definitely there.

Addendums on 4/20/19:

Community Colleges And Tech Companies Are Co-Branding Credentials To Solve The Skills Gap — from forbes.com by Allison Dulin Salisbury

DC: The larger 85” model could be interesting to use in smaller classrooms that bring face-to-face students on campus w/ remote students. https://t.co/c2lvG2VoM3

— Daniel Christian (@dchristian5) April 19, 2019

Reflections on “Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist” [Gorbis]

On 04/11/2019, in blogs / blogging, business side of he, change, changing business models, colleges, communities of practice, community colleges, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, credentialing, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, emerging technologies, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, ideas, learning, learning ecosystem, Lifelong learning, Microlearning, organizational change, pace of change, reinvent, RSS, society, sociology, staying relevant, streams of content, student-related, surviving, technology (general), tools, trends, universities, workplace, youth, by Daniel Christian

Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist — from er.educause.edu by Marina Gorbis

Excerpt:

In 2018 we celebrated the fifty-year anniversary of the founding of the Institute for the Future (IFTF). No other futures organization has survived for this long; we’ve actually survived our own forecasts! In these five decades we learned a lot, and we still believe—even more strongly than before—that systematic thinking about the future is absolutely essential for helping people make better choices today, whether you are an individual or a member of an educational institution or government organization. We view short-termism as the greatest threat not only to organizations but to society as a whole.

In my twenty years at the Institute, I’ve developed five core principles for futures thinking:

Forget about predictions.
Focus on signals.*
Look back to see forward.
Uncover patterns.*
Create a community.

* From DSC:
I have a follow up thought regarding those bullet points about signals and patterns. With today’s exponential pace of technological change, I have asserted for several years now that our students — and all of us really — need to be skilled in pulse-checking the relevant landscapes around us. That’s why I’m a big fan of regularly tapping into — and contributing towards — streams of content. Subscribing to RSS feeds, following organizations and/or individuals on Twitter, connecting with people on LinkedIn, etc. Doing so will help us identify trends, patterns, and the signals that Marina talks about in her article.

It reminds me of the following graphic from January 2017:

Will we see more of this bringing F2F Ss together w/ remote Ss? Could this help lower the price of obtaining a degree? [Christian]

On 04/04/2019, in 21st century, A/V -- audio/visual, adult learning, business side of he, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, colleges, communications, communities of practice, community colleges, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, Daniel S. Christian, distance education, education, education technology, emerging technologies, engagement / engaging students, experimentation, face-to-face, future, future of higher education, global / globalization, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, ideas, innovation, internet, IT in HE, Law Schools, learning, learning ecosystem, learning from the living [class] room, learning spaces, Lifelong learning, MBA, more choice more control, multimedia, online learning, platforms, smart classrooms, Smart/Connected TV, society, staying relevant, student-related, teaching & learning, teaching online, Technologies for your home, telecommunications, television, tools, traditional / tradition, training / L&D, United States, universities, user experience (UX), vendors, videoconferencing, vision, Walmart of Education --> New Amazon.com of Higher Education, web-based collaboration, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
First a posting that got me to wondering about something that I’ve previously wondered about from time to time…

College of Business unveils classroom of the future — from biz.source.colostate.edu by Joe Giordano

Excerpt:

Equipped with a wall of 27 high-definition video screens as well as five high-end cameras, the newest classroom in Colorado State University’s College of Business is designed to connect on-campus and online students in a whole new way.

The College of Business unveiled on March 29 the “Room of the Future,” featuring Mosaic, an innovative technology – powered by mashme.io – that creates a blended classroom experience, connecting on-campus and online students in real time.

From DSC:
If the pedagogies could be worked out, this could be a very attractive model for many people in the future as it:

Provides convenience.
Offers more choice. More control. (Students could pick whether they want to attend the class virtually or in a physical classroom).

If the resulting increase in students could bring down the price of offering the course, will we see this model flourish in the near future?

For struggling colleges and universities, could this help increase the ROI of offering their classes on their physical campuses?

The technologies behind this are not cheap though…and that could be a show-stopper for this type of an experiment. But…thinking out loud again…what if there were a cheaper way to view a group of other people in your learning community? Perhaps there will be a solution using some form of Extended Reality (XR)…hmmm….

Also see:

mashme.io

Also see:

Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technologies Impacting Higher Ed in 2019 — from campustechnology.com by Rhea Kelly

Excerpt:

Artificial intelligence conversational interfaces. Gartner defines these as “a subset of conversational user interfaces (CUIs), in which user and machine interactions occur in the user’s spoken or written natural language.” The benefit for higher ed insitutions: “CUIs place responsibility on the machine interface to learn what the user wants, rather than the user having to learn the software, saving user time, increasing student satisfaction, and being available to use 24/7.”
Smart campus. This is “a physical or digital environment in which humans and technology-enabled systems interact to create more immersive and automated experiences for university stakeholders.” While smart campus initiatives are still in the early stages, there has been a rising interest across higher ed institutions, according to Gartner. “The smart campus will drive growth in markets like robotic process automation solutions and augmented and virtual reality in the higher education space. Campus efficiency will be enhanced and student learning will be enriched with the new capabilities they bring. It’s a win all-around, except for the data security implications that come with most technology initiatives today,” said Morgan.
…
Digital credentialing technologies. “Students, faculty and the higher education institutions they are a part of are starting to expect the ability to quickly and freely exchange credentials to enhance the verification and recruitment process,” noted Gartner. Technologies such as blockchain and data encryption are driving change in this area. “In many ways, credentials issued by an education institution are the only tangible evidence of higher education. They should be considered the currency of the education ecosystem,” said Morgan. “These technologies really enable universities to leverage technology to improve the student experience by giving them more control over their information. The only hurdle is a general lack of understanding of digital credentialing technologies and risk-averseness in the high-stakes nature of the higher education market.”

Is Thomas Frey right? “…by 2030 the largest company on the internet is going to be an education-based company that we haven’t heard of yet.”

On 03/20/2019, in 1:1 / 1:World, 21st century, 24x7x365 access, active learning, adjunct faculty, adult learning, algorithms, Amazon, analytics, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning / Deep Learning, blended learning, Blockchain, bots, business, business side of he, career development, change, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, CMS/LMS, cognitive computing, collaboration, colleges, communications, communities of practice, community colleges, content development, content repositories, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, credentialing, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, disruption, distance education, education, education reform, education technology, elearning, emerging technologies, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, global / globalization, heutagogy, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), hybrid learning, ideas, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, internet, learner profiles, learning, Learning Agents, learning ecosystem, learning from the living [class] room, learning hubs, library / librarians, Lifelong learning, Microlearning, Mobile learning, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more choice more control, Natural Language Processing (NLP), new business models, online learning, online media, pace of change, personalized/customized learning, platforms, professional development, reinvent, smart classrooms, Smart/Connected TV, social learning / networks, society, staying relevant, streams of content, student-related, surviving, Technologies for your home, telepresence, television, tools, training / L&D, transmedia, trends, United States, universities, user experience (UX), vision, Walmart of Education --> New Amazon.com of Higher Education, web-based collaboration, workplace, youth, by Daniel Christian

From a fairly recent e-newsletter from edsurge.com — though I don’t recall the exact date (emphasis DSC):

New England is home to some of the most famous universities in the world. But the region has also become ground zero for the demographic shifts that promise to disrupt higher education.

This week saw two developments that fit the narrative. On Monday, Southern Vermont College announced that it would shut its doors, becoming the latest small rural private college to do so. Later that same day, the University of Massachusetts said it would start a new online college aimed at a national audience, noting that it expects campus enrollments to erode as the number of traditional college-age students declines in the coming years.

“Make no mistake—this is an existential threat to entire sectors of higher education,” said UMass president Marty Meehan in announcing the online effort.

The approach seems to parallel the U.S. retail sector, where, as a New York Times piece outlines this week, stores like Target and WalMart have thrived by building online strategies aimed at competing with Amazon, while stores like Gap and Payless, which did little to move online, are closing stores. Of course, college is not like any other product or service, and plenty of campuses are touting the richness of the experience that students get by actually coming to a campus. And it’s not clear how many colleges can grow online to a scale that makes their investments pay off.

“It’s predicted that over the next several years, four to five major national players with strong regional footholds will be established. We intend to be one of them.”

University of Massachusetts President Marty Meehan

From DSC:
That last quote from UMass President Marty Meehan made me reflect upon the idea of having one or more enormous entities that will provide “higher education” in the future. I wonder if things will turn out to be that we’ll have more lifelong learning providers and platforms in the future — with the idea of a 60-year curriculum being an interesting idea that may come into fruition.

Long have I predicted that such an enormous entity would come to pass. Back in 2008, I named it the Forthcoming Walmart of Education. But then as the years went by, I got bumbed out on some things that Walmart was doing, and re-branded it the Forthcoming Amazon.com of Higher Education. We’ll see how long that updated title lasts — but you get the point. In fact, the point aligns very nicely with what futurist Thomas Frey has been predicting for years as well:

“I’ve been predicting that by 2030 the largest company on the internet is going to be an education-based company that we haven’t heard of yet,” Frey, the senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute think tank, tells Business Insider. (source)

I realize that education doesn’t always scale well…but I’m thinking that how people learn in the future may be different than how we did things in the past…communities of practice comes to mind…as does new forms of credentialing…as does cloud-based learner profiles…as does the need for highly efficient, cost-effective, and constant opportunities/means to reinvent oneself.

Also see:

Fearing ‘existential threat,’ U of Massachusetts unveils plans for national online platform — from educationdive.com by Natalie Schwartz

Addendum:

74% of consumers go to Amazon when they’re ready to buy something. That should be keeping retailers up at night. — from cnbc.com

Key points (emphasis DSC)

Amazon remains a looming threat for some of the biggest retailers in the country — like Walmart, Target and Macy’s.
When consumers are ready to buy a specific product, nearly three-quarters of them, or 74 percent, are going straight to Amazon to do it, according to a new study by Feedvisor.
By the end of this year, Amazon is expected to account for 52.4 percent of the e-commerce market in the U.S., up from 48 percent in 2018.

“In New England, there will be between 32,000 and 54,000 fewer college-aged students just seven years from now,” Meehan said. “That means colleges and universities will have too much capacity and not enough demand at a time when the economic model in higher education is already straining under its own weight.” (Marty Meehan at WBUR)

4 key tech strategies for the survival of the small liberal arts college [Campbell]

On 03/14/2019, in 21st century, colleges, community colleges, consortiums, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, data mining, disruption, distance education, education technology, experimentation, face-to-face, future of higher education, game-changing environment, generational differences, higher education, ideas, innovation, IT in HE, leadership, learning from the living [class] room, liberal arts, Microlearning, Mobile learning, new business models, online learning, platforms, reinvent, society, staying relevant, strategy, student-related, surviving, traditional / tradition, trends, United States, universities, vision, Walmart of Education --> New Amazon.com of Higher Education, by Daniel Christian

4 key tech strategies for the survival of the small liberal arts college — from campustechnology.com by Kellie B. Campbell
In a recent study on the use of technology to reduce academic costs in liberal arts colleges, four distinct themes emerged: the strategic role of IT; the importance of data; the potential of alternative education delivery modes; and opportunities for institutional partnerships. Here’s how IT leaders at these small colleges understand the future of their institutions.

Excerpt:

In this study, the flexibility of the semi-constructed interview format resulted in a fascinating level of honesty and bluntness from participants. In particular, participants’ language changed when they were asked to take off their professional hat and consider a new point of view — it was a chance to be vulnerable and honest. What was probably most interesting was that almost everyone signaled that the status quo is not sustainable. Something in the higher education model has to change for institutions to stay open, yet many lack a strategy for effecting change. Even if they do have a strategy in place on the business side, many are hesitant to dive into analysis and change on the academic side of the institution.

Institutions simply cannot continue to nibble at the edges of change. Significant change is needed in order to sustain the financial model of higher education. The ideas for doing so are out there, though the work must be guided by the institutional mission and consider new models for delivering education. CIOs and their departments can play an important role in that work — providing infrastructure, data, access, services and ideas — but institutional leadership at large needs to understand IT’s strategic role and position the organization to make that impact.

When participants were able to think about the “what if” question — what if the institution were forced to drastically cut academic costs — several had detailed, “out there” ideas that might not be traditionally welcomed into higher education cultures. Yet a number of participants were not being asked by their institutions to think about such ideas. The question is, if everyone agrees that the status quo is not sustainable, why aren’t they thinking about it?

Five key trends for professional and continuing education leaders in the next five years [Schroeder]

On 03/12/2019, in 21st century, adult learning, augmented reality, Blockchain, career development, change, changing business models, corporate universities / corporate training, curriculum, digital learning, emerging technologies, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, human-computer interaction (HCI), ideas, learning ecosystem, learning from the living [class] room, Lifelong learning, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, online learning, pace of change, strategy, trends, United States, universities, virtual reality / worlds / learning, vision, Walmart of Education --> New Amazon.com of Higher Education, XR - extended reality, by Daniel Christian

Five key trends for professional and continuing education leaders in the next five years — from evolllution.com by Ray Schroeder

Excerpts:

Higher education is on the cusp of major changes. Enrollments are on the decline—both online and on campus—and the trend is expected to accelerate.[1] Graduates are laboring under substantial college loan debts totaling more than $1.5 trillion.[2] Employers are demanding that applicants possess soft and hard skills that many college graduates do not hold.[3] At the same time new and emerging technologies are changing the way credentials are shared and work is done.

It is in this context that continuing, professional and online programs have been imported from the periphery to the center of traditional universities. Students and employers alike have made clear that their top priority is relevance to the rapidly changing workplace. Artificial intelligence, blockchain, augmented/virtual reality and other technologies are driving the changes. Professional and Continuing Education (PCE) has long been the leader in providing relevant courses, certificates and degrees that connect students with the needs of employers.

…the Online Master’s Science in Computer Science degree at Georgia Tech is now the largest computer science program in the world. And the degree costs less than $9,000.

Also see:

Interview with Hunt Lambert – What is the 60-year curriculum?
Colleges and universities used to be primarily responsible for a four-year learning experience. We now need to envision a 60-year curriculum, whereby educational institutions partner with learners at all stages of their professional career, providing skills and knowledge as needed.

56% of employees lack digital skills needed for future jobs — from techrepublic.com by Macy Bayern
Only 29% of employees globally said their digital skills are sufficient, according to a Vodafone report.

Excerpt:

The majority of respondents (85%) said digital skills are necessities for their jobs, but only 29% of employees felt their skills are currently strong enough, according to the report. Specifically in the US, only 32% of respondents said their companies give them the opportunities or tools to continue gaining digital skills.

Learning Ecosystems

Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technologies Impacting Higher Ed in 2019 [Kelly]

Five key trends for professional and continuing education leaders in the next five years [Schroeder]

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