economics

The Bull and Bear Case For the AI Bubble, Explained [Harvey]

On 10/27/2025, in 21st century, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, bots, business, computer science, economics, Facebook / Meta Platforms, Google, MBA, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Open AI, platforms, productivity / tips and tricks, society, telecommunications, vendors, by Daniel Christian

The Bull and Bear Case For the AI Bubble, Explained — from theneuron.ai by Grant Harvey
AI is both a genuine technological revolution and a massive financial bubble, and the defining question is whether miraculous progress can outrun the catastrophic, multi-trillion-dollar cost required to achieve it.

This sets the stage for the defining conflict of our technological era. The narrative has split into two irreconcilable realities. In one, championed by bulls like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, we are at the dawn of “computer industry V2”—a platform shift so profound it will unlock unprecedented productivity and reshape civilization.

In the other, detailed by macro investors like Julien Garran and forensic bears like writer Ed Zitron, AI is a historically massive, circular, debt-fueled mania built on hype, propped up by a handful of insiders, and destined for a collapse that will make past busts look quaint.

This is a multi-layered conflict playing out across public stock markets, the private venture ecosystem, and the fundamental unit economics of the technology itself. To understand the future, and whether it holds a revolution, a ruinous crash, or a complex mixture of both, we must dissect every layer of the argument, from the historical parallels to the hard financial data and the technological critiques that question the very foundation of the boom.

From DSC:
I second what Grant said at the beginning of his analysis:

**The following is shared for educational purposes and is not intended to be financial advice; do your own research!

But I post this because Grant provides both sides of the argument very well.

Goldman economists on the Gen Z hiring nightmare: ‘Jobless growth’ is probably the new normal [Lichtenberg]

On 10/18/2025, in career development, economics, game-changing environment, generational differences, legislatures / government / legal, parents/guardians, student-related, United States, workplace, youth, by Daniel Christian

Goldman economists on the Gen Z hiring nightmare: ‘Jobless growth’ is probably the new normal — from fortune.com by Nick Lichtenberg (this article is behind a paywall)

The challenging U.S. labor market is entering a new normal, according to Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei, who tackled the phenomenon of “jobless growth” in an Oct. 13 note. It resonates with what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell memorably described in September as a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, in which, for some reason, “kids coming out of college and younger people, minorities, are having a hard time finding jobs.”

Some analysts blame the downturn in entry-level hiring on the impact of AI on the economy, others on macroeconomic uncertainty, especially the seesawing tariffs regime from the Trump administration. The takeaway is clear, though, that getting hired is really hard in the mid-2020s.

This shift is clear in data collated by the investment bank. Payroll growth by industry shows almost all sectors outside health care posting weak, zero, or even negative net job creation, despite otherwise solid macroeconomic indicators. Meanwhile, the share of executives who mention both AI and employment in the same context on earnings calls has reached historic highs.?
…
For now, Mericle’s “low-hire, low-fire” diagnosis serves as both warning and guide: Jobless growth may not mean mass layoffs, but it does mean fewer opportunities for job seekers and slower rebounds from economic shocks in the years to come.?

“How Will AI Affect the Global Workforce?” [Goldman Sachs] + other items re: AI in general

On 08/22/2025, in Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, bots, career development, corporate / business world, economics, emerging technologies, intelligent systems, society, trends, UK, United States, workplace, by Daniel Christian

How Will AI Affect the Global Workforce? — from goldmansachs.com

Despite concerns about widespread job losses, AI adoption is expected to have only a modest and relatively temporary impact on employment levels.
Goldman Sachs Research estimates that unemployment will increase by half a percentage point during the AI transition period as displaced workers seek new positions.
If current AI use cases were expanded across the economy and reduced employment proportionally to efficiency gains, an estimated 2.5% of US employment would be at risk of related job loss.
Occupations with higher risk of being displaced by AI include computer programmers, accountants and auditors, legal and administrative assistants, and customer service representatives.

The Neuron recently highlighted the above item. Here is Grant Harvey’s take on that and other AI-related items:

Goldman Sachs’ says AI’s job hit will be real… but thankfully, brief.
Goldman Sachs says AI will lift productivity with only brief job losses, which we think means it’s time to shift our work mindset from set roles to outcome-based delivery, leading to more small teams who win back local market share from slower moving corporations.

UK businesses are dialing back hiring for jobs that are likely to be affected by the rollout of artificial intelligence, a study found, suggesting the new technology is accentuating a slowdown in the nation’s labor market. Job vacancies have declined across the board in the UK as employers cut costs in the face of sluggish growth and high borrowing rates, with the overall number of online job postings down 31% in the three months to May compared with the same period in 2022, a McKinsey & Co. analysis found. Tiwa Adebayo joins Stephen Carroll on Bloomberg Radio to discuss the details.

I talked to Sam Altman about the GPT-5 launch fiasco – from theverge.com by Alex Heath
Over dinner, OpenAI CEO’s addressed criticism of GPT-5’s rollout, the AI bubble, brain-computer interfaces, buying Google Chrome, and more.

Sam Altman, over bread rolls, explores life after GPT-5 — from techcrunch.com by Maxwell Zeff

But throughout the night, it becomes clear to me that this dinner is about OpenAI’s future beyond GPT-5. OpenAI’s executives give the impression that AI model launches are less important than they were when GPT-4 launched in 2023. After all, OpenAI is a very different company now, focused on upending legacy players in search, consumer hardware, and enterprise software.

OpenAI shares some new details about those efforts.

[Gifted article] Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen: The Fed Must Be Independent

On 07/30/2025, in business, economics, future, ideas, legislatures / government / legal, policy, political science, society, United States, by Daniel Christian

Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen: The Fed Must Be Independent — an opinion from nytimes.com by Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen; this is a gifted article

As former chairs of the Federal Reserve, we know from our experiences and our reading of history that the ability of the central bank to act independently is essential for its effective stewardship of the economy. Recent attempts to compromise that independence, including the president’s demands for a radical reduction in interest rates and his threats to fire its chair, Jerome Powell, if the Fed does not comply, risk lasting and serious economic harm. They undermine not only Mr. Powell but also all future chairs and, indeed, the credibility of the central bank itself.

Independence for the Federal Reserve to set interest rates does not imply a lack of democratic accountability. Congress has set in law the goals that the Fed must aim to achieve — maximum employment and stable prices — and Fed leaders report regularly to congressional committees on their progress toward those goals. Rather, independence means that monetary policymakers are permitted to use fact-based analysis and their best professional judgment in determining how best to reach their mandated goals, without regard to short-term political pressures.

Of course, Fed policymakers, being human, make mistakes. But an overwhelming amount of evidence, drawn from the experiences of both the United States and other countries, has shown that keeping politics out of monetary policy decisions leads to better economic outcomes.

[Gifted article] The Chart That Convinced Me Our Debt Is a Serious Problem [Bernstein]

On 07/12/2025, in economics, legislatures / government / legal, United States, by Daniel Christian

Biden’s Chief Economist: The Chart That Convinced Me Our Debt Is a Serious Problem — from nytimes.com by Jared Bernstein; this is a gifted article. Americans need to read this.

Budget hawks have fretted for decades about America’s deficits and debt, repeatedly advising our government to embrace greater fiscal austerity. And for just as long, budget doves — myself included — fought this narrative, repeatedly arguing that austerity often does more harm to our economy than good.

No longer. I, like many other longtime doves, am joining the hawks, because our nation’s budget math just got a lot more dangerous.

How the national debt affects the U.S. — and you — in 10 charts [Bogage]

On 06/24/2025, in economics, funding / grants, future, game-changing environment, generational differences, history, society, United States, by Daniel Christian

How the national debt affects the U.S. — and you — in 10 charts — from washingtonpost.com by Jacob Bogage; this is a GIFTED article
The national debt already exceeds $36 trillion and is growing at historic rates. That has cascading consequences for the government and economy.

The federal government is taking on record amounts of debt year after year.

The U.S. owes lenders more than $36 trillion. That is close to an all-time high when comparing the debt to the country’s total economic output — a leading indicator of the nation’s ability to pay it all back.

Debt and annual deficits have colored much of the debate around President Donald Trump and Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the mammoth tax and immigration measure the GOP hopes to pass through Congress before July 4. It would add $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade, factoring in the cost of the bill plus interest on the added borrowing, according to nonpartisan estimates.

But how does the national debt affect the U.S. economy and the government? Here are 10 charts to explain.

Opinions | This Baltimore program shows how to fight generational poverty – from washingtonpost.com by Leana S. Wen; this is a gifted article
How one grassroots organization is teaching young people leadership skills and giving them hope.

She recognized their desperation and felt called to return and use what she had learned to help them realize a different future. So she set up an organization, HeartSmiles, to do just that — one young person at a time.

Holifield’s experience is one that city officials and public health workers can learn from. If they want to disrupt the generational cycle of poverty, trauma and hopelessness that afflicts so many communities, a good place to focus their efforts is children.
…
How can communities overcome inertia and resignation? Holifield’s organization starts with two core interventions. The first is career and leadership development. Children as young as 8 go to the HeartSmiles center to participate in facilitated sessions on youth entrepreneurship, budgeting and conflict resolution. Those who want to explore certain career paths are matched with professionals in these fields.
…
The second part of her vision is youth-led mentorship, which involves pairing young people with those not much older than they are.

Also relevant/see:

Lost boys, trapped men, and the role of lifers in prison education — from college-inside.beehiiv.com by Charlotte West

This week, we’re publishing Part 2 of a Q&A with Erik Maloney, a lifer in Arizona, and Kevin Wright, a criminal justice professor at Arizona State University. They co-authored Imprisoned Minds, a book about trauma and healing published in December 2024, over the course of seven years. Check out Part 1 of the Q&A.

West: The fact that you created your own curriculum to accompany the book makes me think about the role of lifers in creating educational opportunities in prisons. What do you see as the role of lifers in filling some of these gaps?

Maloney: I’ve said for years that lifers are so underutilized in prison. It’s all about punishment for what you’re in for, and [the prison system] overlooks us as a resource. We are people who, if allowed to be educated properly, can teach courses indefinitely while also being a role model for those with shorter sentences. This gives the lifer meaning and purpose to do good again. He serves as a mentor, whether he likes it or not, to [those] people coming into the prisons. When they see him doing well, it inspires others to want to do well.

But if it’s all about punishment, and a person has no meaning and no purpose in life, then all they have is hopelessness. With hopelessness comes despair, and with despair, you have rampant drug and alcohol abuse in prison, and violence stems from that.

Bringing economics down to earth [npr.org]

On 05/18/2025, in Asia, business, corporate / business world, economics, legislatures / government / legal, parents/guardians, podcasting, society, student-related, surviving, United States, vendors, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Welcome to Planet Money

The current economic upheaval has a lot of us scratching our heads and scrambling to look up terms like “trade deficit” and “reserve currency.” If only there was a place you could go where friendly voices break down what’s going on in a way that’s fun and easy to understand. There is a place. It’s called Planet Money.

On each episode of the Planet Money podcast, the hosts tell a sometimes quirky, often surprising story that helps explain a topic you might be hearing about in the news, from tariffs to GDP to memecoins.

They walk you through complex concepts using examples from everyday life, like Tupperware and scratch-off lotto tickets, and people you can relate to, like a guy who’s just looking for a fair way to distribute his chickens’ wares during the current egg shortage.

And when someone else’s story isn’t enough to illustrate an economic principle, the hosts take matters into their own hands. In the process, they’ve shot a satellite into space, started a record label, made their own vodka, and shorted the entire stock market – all to help you grasp how the things you see every day came to be.

Visit Planet Money twice a week and you won’t only better understand money – you’ll better understand the world.

2025 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition

On 05/12/2025, in 21st century, accessibility / UDL, adjunct faculty, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, assessment, Bias | Diversity Equity & Inclusion (DE&I), colleges, community colleges, credentialing, digital audio, disruption, economics, education technology, emerging technologies, experimentation, faculty/staff, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, human-computer interaction (HCI), ideas, immersion, innovation, instructional design, intelligent systems, learning, learning ecosystem, Learning Experience Design, liberal arts, neurodivergent/special needs, pedagogy, privacy, skills, social learning / networks, society, student-related, teaching & learning, technology (general), trends, United States, universities, Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, workplace, XR - extended reality, by Daniel Christian

2025 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition — from library.educause.edu

Higher education is in a period of massive transformation and uncertainty. Not only are current events impacting how institutions operate, but technological advancement—particularly in AI and virtual reality—are reshaping how students engage with content, how cognition is understood, and how learning itself is documented and valued.

Our newly released 2025 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition captures the spirit of this transformation and how you can respond with confidence through the lens of emerging trends, key technologies and practices, and scenario-based foresight.

#teachingandlearning #highereducation #learningecosystems #learning #futurism #foresight #trends #emergingtechnologies #AI #VR #gamechangingenvironment #colleges #universities #communitycolleges #faculty #staff #IT

This technology could easily be abused and lock people out of almost anything. [Christian]

On 05/02/2025, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, business side of he, cryptocurrencies, Daniel S. Christian, economics, global / globalization, society, the downsides of how people use tech, tools, United States, by Daniel Christian

Sam Altman’s Eye-Scanning Orb Is Now Coming to the US — from wired.com by Lauren Goode
At a buzzy event in San Francisco, World announced a series of Apple-like stores, a partnership with dating giant Match Group, and a new mini gadget to scan your eyeballs.

The device-and-app combo scans people’s irises, creates a unique user ID, stores that information on the blockchain, and uses it as a form of identity verification. If enough people adopt the app globally, the thinking goes, it could ostensibly thwart scammers.
…
The bizarre identity verification process requires that users get their eyeballs scanned, so Tools for Humanity is expanding its physical footprint to make that a possibility.
…
But World is also a for-profit cryptocurrency company that wants to build a borderless, “globally inclusive” financial network. And its approach has been criticized by privacy advocates and regulators. In its early days, World was explicitly marketing its services to countries with a high percentage of unbanked or underbanked citizens, and offering free crypto as an incentive for people to sign up and have their irises scanned.

From DSC:
If people and governments could be trusted with the level of power a global ID network/service could bring, this could be a great technology. But I could easily see it being abused. Heck, even our own President doesn’t listen to the Judicial Branch of our government! He’s in contempt of court, essentially. But he doesn’t seem to care.

The 2025 AI Index Report [Stanford University]

On 04/09/2025, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, Africa, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, Asia, bots, business, Canada, change, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, collaboration, communities of practice, computer science, content development, aggregation, repositories, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, digital learning, economics, education, education technology, emerging technologies, ethics, Europe, experimentation, faculty/staff, future, game-changing environment, global / globalization, health, human-computer interaction (HCI), innovation, intelligent systems, learning ecosystem, legislatures / government / legal, mathematics, morals/values, platforms, policy, research, science, society, trends, United States, universities, workplace, by Daniel Christian

The 2025 AI Index Report — from Stanford University’s Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Lab (hai.stanford.edu); item via The Neuron

Top Takeaways

AI performance on demanding benchmarks continues to improve.
AI is increasingly embedded in everyday life.
Business is all in on AI, fueling record investment and usage, as research continues to show strong productivity impacts.
The U.S. still leads in producing top AI models—but China is closing the performance gap.
The responsible AI ecosystem evolves—unevenly.
Global AI optimism is rising—but deep regional divides remain.
…and several more

Also see:

12 Graphs That Explain the State of AI in 2025 — from by Eliza Strickland; item via The Neuron
Stanford’s AI Index tracks performance, investment, public opinion, and more

The Neuron’s take on this:

So, what should you do? You really need to start trying out these AI tools. They’re getting cheaper and better, and they can genuinely help save time or make work easier—ignoring them is like ignoring smartphones ten years ago.

Just keep two big things in mind:

Making the next super-smart AI costs a crazy amount of money and uses tons of power (seriously, they’re buying nuclear plants and pushing coal again!).
Companies are still figuring out how to make AI perfectly safe and fair—cause it still makes mistakes.

So, use the tools, find what helps you, but don’t trust them completely.

We’re building this plane mid-flight, and Stanford’s report card is just another confirmation that we desperately need better safety checks before we hit major turbulence.

Addendum on 4/16:

The Gen X Career Meltdown [Kurutz]

On 03/31/2025, in 21st century, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, business, career development, change, changing business models, communities of practice, content development, aggregation, repositories, corporate / business world, creativity, culture, design, digital photography, digital storytelling, economics, emerging technologies, future, game-changing environment, generational differences, graphics, internet, journalism, lifelong learning, love of learning, media/film, more voice more choice more control, multimedia, music, new business models, online media, photography, reinvent, skills, social learning / networks, society, sociology, staying relevant, student-related, surviving, technology (general), television, trends, United States, workplace, writing, youth, by Daniel Christian

It’s the end of work as we knew it
and I feel…

powerless to fight the technology that we pioneered
nostalgic for a world that moved on without us
after decades of paying our dues
for a payday that never came
…so yeah
not exactly fine.

The Gen X Career Meltdown — from nytimes.com by Steeven Kurutz (DSC: This is a gifted article for you)
Just when they should be at their peak, experienced workers in creative fields find that their skills are all but obsolete.

If you entered media or image-making in the ’90s — magazine publishing, newspaper journalism, photography, graphic design, advertising, music, film, TV — there’s a good chance that you are now doing something else for work. That’s because those industries have shrunk or transformed themselves radically, shutting out those whose skills were once in high demand.

“I am having conversations every day with people whose careers are sort of over,” said Chris Wilcha, a 53-year-old film and TV director in Los Angeles.

Talk with people in their late 40s and 50s who once imagined they would be able to achieve great heights — or at least a solid career while flexing their creative muscles — and you are likely to hear about the photographer whose work dried up, the designer who can’t get hired or the magazine journalist who isn’t doing much of anything.

In the wake of the influencers comes another threat, artificial intelligence, which seems likely to replace many of the remaining Gen X copywriters, photographers and designers. By 2030, ad agencies in the United States will lose 32,000 jobs, or 7.5 percent of the industry’s work force, to the technology, according to the research firm Forrester.

From DSC:
This article reminds me of how tough it is to navigate change in our lives. For me, it was often due to the fact that I was working with technologies. Being a technologist can be difficult, especially as one gets older and faces age discrimination in a variety of industries. You need to pick the right technologies and the directions that will last (for me it was email, videoconferencing, the Internet, online-based education/training, discovering/implementing instructional technologies, and becoming a futurist).

For you younger folks out there — especially students within K-16 — aim to develop a perspective and a skillset that is all about adapting to change. You will likely need to reinvent yourself and/or pick up new skills over your working years. You are most assuredly required to be a lifelong learner now. That’s why I have been pushing for school systems to be more concerned with providing more choice and control to students — so that students actually like school and enjoy learning about new things.

OpenAI opens OpenAI Academy — A free, online platform to help people gain AI literacy

On 03/28/2025, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, adjunct faculty, adult learning, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, bots, career development, change, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, colleges, communities of practice, community colleges, computer science, content development, aggregation, repositories, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, curriculum, digital audio, digital learning, digital video, economics, education technology, emerging technologies, experimentation, faculty/staff, future, game-changing environment, global / globalization, heutagogy, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), informal learning, intelligent systems, IT in HE, K-12 related, law schools, learning ecosystem, multimedia, new media literacies, online learning, online media, online tutoring, Open AI, open courseware and systems, platforms, productivity / tips and tricks, professional development, skills, social learning / networks, society, staying relevant, student teaching/teacher education, student-related, teachers, teaching & learning, technologies for your home, tools, trends, United States, universities, vendors, workplace, youth, by Daniel Christian

Students and folks looking for work may want to check out:

AI Career Prep: Resumes and Interviews

Also relevant/see:

OpenAI Launches OpenAI Academy: Free Guide To Understanding AI — from voi.id
OpenAI Launches OpenAI Academy to Drive AI Innovation in Low- and Middle-Income Countries — from startupsvibes.com by Emmaunel Daniji

Office tasks are being automated now, but nobody has answers on how education and worker upskilling should change. [Fain]

On 03/08/2025, in adult learning, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, bots, business, career development, change, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, colleges, community colleges, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, disruption, economics, emerging technologies, higher education, human-computer interaction (HCI), ideas, intelligent systems, leadership, learning ecosystem, legislatures / government / legal, lifelong learning, new business models, organizational change, pace of change, policy, productivity / tips and tricks, professional development, reinvent, research, skills, society, staying relevant, strategy, student-related, surviving, United States, universities, workplace, youth, by Daniel Christian

Blind Spot on AI — from the-job.beehiiv.com by Paul Fain
Office tasks are being automated now, but nobody has answers on how education and worker upskilling should change.

Students and workers will need help adjusting to a labor market that appears to be on the verge of a historic disruption as many business processes are automated. Yet job projections and policy ideas are sorely lacking.
…
The benefits of agentic AI are already clear for a wide range of organizations, including small nonprofits like CareerVillage. But the ability to automate a broad range of business processes means that education programs and skills training for knowledge workers will need to change. And as Chung writes in a must-read essay, we have a blind spot with predicting the impacts of agentic AI on the labor market.

“Without robust projections,” he writes, “policymakers, businesses, and educators won’t be able to come to terms with how rapidly we need to start this upskilling.”

The Anthropic Economic Index

On 02/11/2025, in 21st century, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, business, career development, change, corporate / business world, data related items, economics, research, vocational / trades, workplace, by Daniel Christian

The Anthropic Economic Index — from anthropic.com; via George Siemens

In the coming years, AI systems will have a major impact on the ways people work. For that reason, we’re launching the Anthropic Economic Index, an initiative aimed at understanding AI’s effects on labor markets and the economy over time.

The Index’s initial report provides first-of-its-kind data and analysis based on millions of anonymized conversations on Claude.ai, revealing the clearest picture yet of how AI is being incorporated into real-world tasks across the modern economy.

We’re also open sourcing the dataset used for this analysis, so researchers can build on and extend our findings.

Learning Ecosystems

[Gifted article] Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen: The Fed Must Be Independent

[Gifted article] The Chart That Convinced Me Our Debt Is a Serious Problem [Bernstein]

How the national debt affects the U.S. — and you — in 10 charts [Bogage]

This Baltimore program shows how to fight generational poverty [Wen] + Lost boys, trapped men, and the role of lifers in prison education [West]

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