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Your Massively Open Offline College Is Broken [Shirky]

On 02/12/2013, in cost of getting a degree, disruption, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, student-related, by Daniel Christian

Your Massively Open Offline College Is Broken — by Clay Shirky

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

This is the background to the entire conversation around higher education: Things that can’t last don’t. This is why MOOCs matter. Not because distance learning is some big new thing or because online lectures are a solution to all our problems, but because they’ve come along at a time when students and parents are willing to ask themselves, “Isn’t there some other way to do this?”

MOOCs are a lightning strike on a rotten tree. Most stories have focused on the lightning, on MOOCs as the flashy new thing. I want to talk about the tree.

…

Imagine picking a thousand students at random from among our institutions of higher education. Now imagine unpicking everyone at one of US News‘ Top 100 liberal arts colleges or universities. You’d expel anyone from the Ivy League, Stanford, MIT. Anyone from from Emory or Rice. Anyone from Vanderbilt, Clemson, Drexel. Anyone from the famously good state schools—UMass, Virginia, the California universities. After ejecting those students from your group, how many of the original thousand would be left?

About 900.

 

graphs

 

 

 

From DSC:
Houston, we have a problem.

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Game-changing reflections re: “College branding: The tipping point” [Dooley]

On 02/10/2013, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, analytics, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning / Deep Learning / Algorithms, business side of he, change, changing business models, CMS/LMS, colleges, community colleges, consortiums, cost of getting a degree, creativity, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, digital learning, disruption, education reform, education technology, elearning, experimentation, faculty, funding / grants, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, internet, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, lifelong learning, marketplaces, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, multimedia, new business models, online learning, online media, online tutoring, pace of change, reinvent, staying relevant, streams of content, surviving, universities, using teams, by Daniel Christian

College branding: The tipping point — from forbes.com by Roger Dooley

Excerpt:

Change is coming to this market. While there are multiple issues of increasing importance to schools, two stand out as major game-changers.

 

From DSC:
Important notes for the boards throughout higher education to consider:

Your institution can’t increase tuition by one dime next year. If you do, you will become more and more vulnerable to being disrupted. Instead, work very hard to go in the exact opposite direction. Find ways to discount tuition by 50% or more — that is, if you want to stay in business.

Sounds like the scene in Apollo 13, doesn’t it? It is. (i.e. as Tom Hanks character is trying to get back to Earth and has very little to do it with. The engineers back in the United States are called upon to “do the impossible.”)

Some possibilities:

  • Pick your business partners and begin pooling resources and forming stronger consortia. Aim to reduce operating expenses, share the production of high-quality/interactive online courses, and create new streams of income. Experimentation will be key.
  • Work with IBM, Apple, Knewton and the like to create/integrate artificial intelligence into your LMS/CMS in order to handle 80% of the questions/learning issues. (Most likely, the future of MOOCs involves this very sort of thing.)
  • Find ways to create shorter courses/modules and offer them via online-based exchanges/marketplaces.  But something’s bothering me with this one..perhaps we won’t have the time to develop high-quality, interactive, multimedia-based courses…are things moving too fast?
  • Find ways to develop and offer subscription-based streams of content


 

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Curbing the cost of college: Coursera wins approval to offer online courses for credit for under $200 [Empson]

On 02/09/2013, in accreditation, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, by Daniel Christian

Curbing the cost of college: Coursera wins approval to offer online courses for credit for under $200 — from techcrunch.com by Rip Empson

Excerpt:

Up until now, the startup has not offered degrees or credits for its online classes, which has meant that Coursera classes have existed mostly as a way to pursue supplementary or continuing education — not as part of degree programs. But that changed today, as Coursera announced [last Thursday morning] that five of its courses have been approved for “credit equivalency” by the American Council on Education (ACE). This means that students who complete these five courses can receive college transfer credit at institutions that accept ACE recommendations.

So, importantly, Coursera’s new credit equivalency doesn’t automatically mean that every university it has partnered with automatically guarantees credit for the approved courses; instead, institutions have the option to accept or decline credit. In other words, it’s up to them.

Also see:

Creative learning on mass, or the MIT MOOC –– from daveswhiteboard.com by Dave Ferguson

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Just this morning, I came across MIT Media Lab’s announcement for its Learning Creative Learning online course. You can read about it or skim the outline to make your own judgment; I’m enjoying the laid-back description, which tracks with my previous massive open online course experience:

  • “This is a big experiment. Things will break. We don’t have all the answer.”
  • “We hope that participants will jump in as collaborators rather than passive recipients.”
  • “Check out our shiny new platform. Actually, don’t, because we didn’t build a shiny new platform.”
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Reflections on “The new intelligence” by Kolowich

On 01/25/2013, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, analytics, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning / Deep Learning / Algorithms, assessment, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, education technology, educational games / serious games, emerging technologies, engagement / engaging students, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, human-computer interaction (HCI), innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, interactivity, internet, K-12 related, learner profiles, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, mobile learning, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, multimedia, new media literacies, personalized/customized learning, real-world assignments, simulations, smart/connected TV, social learning / networks, technologies for your home, tools, trends, using teams, vendors, virtual tutoring, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:

In real estate, one hear’s the mantra:
Location. Location. Location.

In higher education, I have it that we’ll be hearing this for a while:
Experimentation. Experimentation. Experimentation.

Consider the following reflections on Steve’ Kolowich’s solid article, The new intelligence (from InsideHigherEd.com)

Excerpt:

And for the largest public university in the country, it is hardly fiction. Arizona State University has become ground zero for data-driven teaching in higher education. The university has rolled out an ambitious effort to turn its classrooms into laboratories for technology-abetted “adaptive learning” — a method that purports to give instructors real-time intelligence on how well each of their students is getting each concept.
.

 

From DSC:
Besides being used in blended learning environments…some predictions:

  • These technologies will become integrated into what MOOCs eventually morph into and provide a significant piece of the assessment/guidance puzzle
  • Such tools will be a part of one’s future learning ecosystem
  • Such tools will be part of interactive, massively open online educationally-related games
  • Such tools will be integrated into personalized learning agents — spiders/recommendation engines that scan the web for relevant items that one needs to complete one’s cognitive gaps in a subject/topic
  • They will be accessible from your living room as well as from your mobile devices
  • They will integrate into web-based learner profiles

It’s the sort of thing I was trying to get at with this graphic from 3 years ago:
.

Like a mechanic...

 

Please don’t misunderstand me, the human mind is far beyond the complexity of an engine. But I still think that there will be more tools & technologies developed that will help the teachers/professors in their efforts to guide students into the knowledge of a discipline.

I beseech the corporate world to get involved more here — and not with the end goal of earning profits — but rather, with the aim of making the world a better place and giving a huge gift to the generations yet born. 

I urge the corporate world to reach into their deep pockets (1.X trillion in cash at this point in time) and team up with our youth/teachers/professors/instructional designers/programmers/etc. to develop sophisticated, educationally-related, engaging games that are relevant to the world that our youth will be growing up in; and/or create interactive simulations that provide more choice/more control to the learners. 

I urge more of the corporate world to join Knewton and Pearson and allocate some significant resources to help develop the next gen learning tools.  I’ll bet that we’ll be amazed at what can be produced! Your daughters, sons, granddaughters, and grandsons will really appreciate the work that you did for them!!!

 

 

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The University’s Dilemna [by Tim Laseter, Strategy & Business]

On 01/24/2013, in business side of he, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, emerging technologies, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, leadership, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

StrategyBusinessWinter2012-UniversitysDilemna

 

From DSC:
With thanks going out to Ross Dawson for his recent tweet on this.

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A seat at the table at last [Barbour]

On 01/24/2013, in adjunct faculty, Bring your own device (BYOD), digital learning, faculty, generational differences, higher education, innovation, IT in HE, leadership, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, new business models, strategy, teaching & learning, by Daniel Christian

A seat at the table at last — from campustechnology.com by Andrew Barbour
One result of the Year of the MOOC is that IT is finally getting a say in the strategic direction of the institution.

Excerpt:

It’s interesting that it took an external force to propel IT into this inner circle. I can’t recall how many stories CT has run proposing strategies for how CIOs could win a place at the table. At the end of the day, though, changing an institution as hidebound as the average college is not easily tackled from within. In contrast, there’s nothing like a little existential angst to shake things up.

But MOOCs aren’t the only drivers of this change. We often think of BYOD as stripping IT of control but–on the broader stage–it may be playing its own part in elevating IT’s profile on campus. For years, faculty resisted IT recommendations on how technology could improve teaching and learning. Saying no was easy–preserving the status quo always is. That’s changing now. BYOD is a force that faculty can’t resist. It is, after all, their customers bringing the devices to school. Suddenly, faculty are faced with demands for new styles of teaching that accommodate student preferences for technology and much more. Enter IT and a host of others who see the potential of tech in education.

Also relevant/see:

  • The University’s Dilemma–– from strategy-business.com by Tim Laseter; with thanks to Ross Dawson for the recent tweet on this
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MOOCs for credit [Jaschik]

On 01/23/2013, in cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, reinvent, staying relevant, by Daniel Christian

MOOCs for credit — from insidehighered.com by Scott Jaschik

Excerpt:

Two announcements this week suggest that MOOCs — massive open online courses — will increasingly include a route for students to receive academic credit.

Georgia State University announced Tuesday that it will start to review MOOCs for credit much like it reviews courses students have taken at other institutions, or exams they have taken to demonstrate competency in certain areas.

And Academic Partnerships, a company that works with public universities to put their degree programs online, announced an effort in which the first course of these programs can become a MOOC, with full credit awarded to those who successfully complete the course. The educational idea is that this offering will encourage more students to start degree programs. The financial idea is that the tuition revenue gained by participating institutions when students move from the MOOC to the rest of the program (which will continue to charge tuition) will offset the additional costs of offering the first course free.

 

From DSC:
I think MOOCs still need some work, but they tap into a blend of formal/structured learning and informal/unstructured learning that is attractive to many — not to mention that MOOCs offer people more choice/more control, chances for contribution and participation, greater ownership of the learning, and much lower costs.  As such, they continue to be a valuable experiment within higher education. They continue to usher in the era of what I call “The Walmart of Education”. They also provide students with a way to see if they are interested in a discipline without having to invest much $$ in the course(s).

Also see:

  • Free online college courses take big step forward — from forbes.com by Susan Adams
    Excerpt:
    Free online college classes known as “massive open online courses,” or MOOCs, have made another big stride toward changing the model for higher education. Dozens of public universities are planning to offer introductory MOOCs for credit to anyone with an internet connection around the world, according to a piece today in The New York Times. The universities, including Arizona State, the University of Cincinnati and the University of Arkansas system, are hoping that students who pass the free MOOCs will then enroll in the schools and pay tuition to earn a degree.
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Innovations in the TV space

On 01/22/2013, in A/V -- audio/visual, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, future of higher education, game-changing environment, innovation, smart/connected TV, by Daniel Christian

LG’s 55” OLED television is thin as a pencil and first to market — from singularityhub.com

 

 

 

Microsoft’s epic plan to turn your living room into a giant TV — from
How big is your TV? 40 inches? 50 inches? Well, what if it were the size of your whole room?

From DSC:
And if they can do that, what might the applications be for educationally-related applications? Perhaps something like this.

 

CES 2013: trends in connected TV — from guardian.co.uk
Michael Berliner on why all media professionals should be keeping a close eye on smart TVs in 2013

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Sebastian Thrun: Udacity announces for-credit course pilot with San Jose State University

On 01/19/2013, in accreditation, business side of he, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, disruption, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, surviving, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

SanJoseStatePlus-UdacityPartnership-Jan2013

 

Also see:

Excerpt:

Today Udacity is thrilled to announce a partnership with San Jose State University to pilot three courses — Entry-Level Mathematics, College Algebra, and Elementary Statistics — available online at an affordable tuition rate and for college credit. To my knowledge, this is the first time a MOOC has been offered for credit and purely online. Much credit for this partnership goes to Mo Qayoumi and Ellen Junn, president and provost of SJSU, and to the five fearless SJSU professors who have chosen to work with us at Udacity to explore this new medium. The offices of Governor Brown and CSU Chancellor White have also been critically important to this partnership for their leadership and expediency. Last but not least, I want to personally thank our great Udacians who, like everyone on this list, have worked endless hours to drive innovation.
Over the past year, MOOCs have received a lot of attention in the media and education circles mostly because so many students are taking advantage of the course for free. Predictions that MOOCs would fundamentally change higher education often revolved around the fact that the courses have unprecedented reach and affordability.

 

From DSC:
Given that such “Walmarts of Education” (i.e. solid learning at a greatly reduced prices) continue to develop, what’s our/your plans for responding to this trend? How are we/you going to compete?  What’s our/your vision and strategy?  By the way, you can look all you want to for data — but at the end of the day, it’s likely with this sort of thing that you won’t find all of the data that you require to make a decision. Examples:

  • When I began working for Kraft Foods in 1990 (brought in to roll out email to 66 plants at the time), I believed in the power of email when few others did. Email was viewed as “fluff” and it would never be used for solid business practices; management put the project on hold. But I kept working with email at Kraft — trying to get others to use it. If you looked for data back then, you wouldn’t find it. But by the time I left Kraft in 1997, thousands of people could communicate with thousands of other people throughout the world — within minutes.
    .
  • When Alexander Graham Bell introduced the telephone, what data would support the success of his invention?  I suppose you could have pulled some data on the usage of the telegraph, but even then, vision would have had to trump the data (the ancestor of Western Union rejected his invention, as they questioned why anyone would need/use a telephone when there was already the telegraph in usage).
    .
  • Such technological developments often are not so easy to back up with data; they require some vision, experimentation, and risk taking.

 

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Some rough news for higher ed

On 01/17/2013, in business side of he, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, future of higher education, game-changing environment, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, by Daniel Christian

Moody’s gives colleges a negative grade — from the NYT by Andrew Martin

Excerpt:

The credit reporting agency Moody’s said on Wednesday that it had revised its financial outlook for colleges and universities, giving a negative grade to the entire field.

For the last two years, Moody’s Investors Service gave the nation’s most elite public and private colleges a stable forecast while assigning a negative outlook to the rest of higher education. (Moody’s assigned a negative outlook for the sector in 2009, but it upgraded the most elite ones to stable in 2011-2012.)

 

Nowhere to turn — from insighehighered.com by Kevin Kiley

Excerpt:

If colleges and universities thought they could ride out the current revenue challenges by becoming more like some other institution, Moody’s Investors Service has a bit of bad news for them: The grass isn’t greener on anybody else’s quad. Not even Harvard University’s.

In a report released Wednesday, the ratings agency outlines how every traditional revenue stream for colleges and universities is facing some sort of pressure, a finding Moody’s uses as grounds for giving the whole sector a negative outlook. The agency has been pessimistic about much of the sector since its annual outlook in 2009 after the economic downturn began, but Wednesday’s report contains a downward shift in how analysts view even market leaders, the elite institutions with high demand and brand recognition.

 

Originally saw thes graphic below on the Education Stormfront blog (thanks Andrew) — also see Will Hanlon Pop the Higher Ed Bubble?

.

Higher Ed Inflation.jpg

 

From DSC:
As you know if you are a regular reader of this blog, I believe the higher ed bubble has already popped — but I have it that it will pop at different times for different institutions.

 

Addendum on 1/22/13:

 

Addendum on 1/24/13:

 

 

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Stanford’s online strategy [Waters]

On 01/16/2013, in experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, leadership, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, online learning, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

StanfordsOnlineStrategy-CampusTechMag-Jan2013

 

Also from Campus Technology re: the elements in a collaborative classroom:

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Another way of saying the higher education bubble is popping

On 01/11/2013, in business side of he, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, UK, United States, by Daniel Christian

Colleges lose pricing power — from the WSJ by Michael Corkery

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

The demand for four-year college degrees is softening, the result of a perfect storm of economic and demographic forces that is sapping pricing power at a growing number of U.S. colleges and universities, according to a new survey by Moody’s Investors Service.

Facing stagnant family income, shaky job prospects for graduates and a smaller pool of high-school graduates, more schools are reining in tuition increases and giving out larger scholarships to attract students, Moody’s concluded in a report set to be released Thursday.

.

From DSC:
To me, this is just another way of saying the higher education bubble is popping.  I think the bubble may pop at different times for different institutions, but the overall picture is clear: Higher ed will either reinvent itself — and hopefully quickly — or it will lose a portion of its relevance and place in society (how much is ultimately lost depends upon how much higher ed can experiment, innovate, and reinvent itself).

Also relevant here:

 

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Experiment: Innovate with Apple’s continually-developing ecosystem [Christian]

On 01/07/2013, in 21st century, A/V -- audio/visual, Apple, Bring your own device (BYOD), Daniel S. Christian, digital audio, digital learning, digital textbooks, digital video, e-books, e-publishing related items (EPUB and more), e-readers, education technology, elearning, emerging technologies, experimentation, future of higher education, higher education, human-computer interaction (HCI), innovation, internet, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, learning spaces, machine-to-machine communications, mirroring and/or multiple devices, mobile learning, multi-touch, multimedia, online learning, platforms, publishing, smart classrooms, smart/connected TV, social learning / networks, strategy, tablets, television, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
The other day, I mentioned how important it will be for institutions of higher education to increase the priority of experimentation. Clicking on the graphic below will give you an example of the kind of vision/experiment that I’m talking about.

(Though, more practically speaking, to operationalize this type of vision would actually require a series of much smaller experiments; I just wanted to present the overall vision of how these pieces might fit together).

 

DanielChristian--Jan2013-Experiment-with-Apples-Ecosystem

NOTE:
This 11″x17″ image is a 10MB PDF file, so it may take some time to appear.
Feel free to right-click on the graphic in order to download/save/print the file as well.

 

Also relevant is this upcoming event from educause:

 

1/8/13 addendum resulting from a Tweet from a great colleague, Mr. Travis LaFleur (@travislafleur), UX Designer at BiggsGilmore

 

 

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NMC Horizon Report — Preview of the 2013 Higher Education Edition

On 12/27/2012, in education technology, emerging technologies, future of higher education, higher education, by Daniel Christian

NMC2013Preview

 

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Virtualized: The end of the university as we know it [Nathan Harden]

On 12/27/2012, in 21st century, budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, education technology, elearning, future of higher education, game-changing environment, internet, legislatures / government / legal, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, online learning, reinvent, staying relevant, United States, Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, virtual tutoring, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

From the January/February 2013 issue of The American Interest:

 

.

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

The most important part of the college bubble story—the one we will soon be hearing much more about—concerns the impending financial collapse of numerous private colleges and universities and the likely shrinkage of many public ones. And when that bubble bursts, it will end a system of higher education that, for all of its history, has been steeped in a culture of exclusivity*. Then we’ll see the birth of something entirely new as we accept one central and unavoidable fact: The college classroom is about to go virtual.

…

Because recent history shows us that the internet is a great destroyer of any traditional business that relies on the sale of information. The internet destroyed the livelihoods of traditional stock brokers and bonds salesmen by throwing open to everyone access to the proprietary information they used to sell. The same technology enabled bankers and financiers to develop new products and methods, but, as it turned out, the experience necessary to manage it all did not keep up. Prior to the Wall Street meltdown, it seemed absurd to think that storied financial institutions like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers could disappear seemingly overnight. Until it happened, almost no one believed such a thing was possible. Well, get ready to see the same thing happen to a university near you, and not for entirely dissimilar reasons.

The higher-ed business is in for a lot of pain as a new era of creative destruction produces a merciless shakeout of those institutions that adapt and prosper from those that stall and die.

…

But what happens when a limited supply of a sought-after commodity suddenly becomes unlimited? Prices fall. Yet here, on the cusp of a new era of online education, that is a financial reality that few American universities are prepared to face.

…

Anyone who can access the internet—at a public library, for instance—no matter how poor or disadvantaged or isolated or uneducated he or she may be, can access the teachings of some of the greatest scholars of our time through open course portals. Technology is a great equalizer.

Big changes are coming, and old attitudes and business models are set to collapse as new ones rise. Few who will be affected by the changes ahead are aware of what’s coming. Severe financial contraction in the higher-ed industry is on the way, and for many this will spell hard times both financially and personally. But if our goal is educating as many students as possible, as well as possible, as affordably as possible, then the end of the university as we know it is nothing to fear. Indeed, it’s something to celebrate.

 

 

* The old way:

Colleges rise as they reject — from online.wsj.com
Schools invite more applications, then use denials to boost coveted rankings

 

 

Daniel S. Christian - Think Virtual -- April 2012

 

Also relevant/see:

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