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Thomas Friedman at LinkedIn inDay Speaker Series — 10/20/11

On 01/13/2012, in career development, corporate / business world, creativity, disruption, economics, future, global / globalization, innovation, morals/values, political science, reinvent, society, staying relevant, United States, workplace, by Daniel Christian

LinkedIn inDay Speaker Series with Thomas Friedman - October 20, 2011.

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That Used To Be Us

 

From DSC:
I originally saw this at Gerd Leonhard’s MediaFuturist.com where he entitles a blog posting:

 

Some of my notes on this video — Friedman’s main talk finishes around 35:45 w/ a Q&A beginning at 36:00
(From DSC: I’ve added my own thoughts in red)

  • Non-routine work — is the kind of work that you want to be able to do (there’s also the non-routine, local work — butcher, grocier — but that wasn’t the focus here)
  • Routine work — has been crushed via algorithms, outsourcing, (robotics), etc.

The bar has risen in non-routine work as we’ve moved from connected to hyper-connected world.

We are in the middle of an IT revolution/transformation — cloud, mobile, social, other — where Information Technology changes and globalization are creating global supply changes.  Tom’s key point is that the United States needs to be involved in these changes or we’ll get left in the dust.

In their Help Wanted chapter, the following skills are wanted:

  • Critical reasonsing
  • Problem solving
  • Non-routine work oriented
  • But most of all, you must be able to invent and reinvent your job WHILE you are doing the job
  • Creative
  • Innovative
  • (Pulse-checker and responder; which is why universities and colleges must begin offering classes on futurism/developing scenarios)
  • Unique value creation
  • Be able to bring your EXTRA

Average is over.  Now that we are hyper-connected, “average” is over.  If average is over — you must bring your “extra”.

From DSC:
If “average” is over, are we developing and raising up a generation of students who are learning how to bring their “extra”?  Does standardized testing help us or hurt us in this regard?

3 key attitudes you need if you want to “lean into this world”:

  1. Think like a new immigrant
    No legacy place waiting for me; I better figure out what world I’m living in, and then I better work hard to uncover and pursue the opportunities that current world presents; nothing is owed to me
  2. Think like an artisan
    Unique, hand-made; one-off’s, work in ways that you would be proud to carve your initials into your work
  3. Think like the waitress at Perkins Pancake House in MN
    Where she gave Thomas’ friend extra fruit and she mentioned that to them both; she brought her extra in areas where she had the control to do so

United States may be in relative decline — as we experience the “rise of the rest”; but what the US has to worry about it absolute decline

American exceptionalism — hogwash; no one owes us anything; have to earn our way; formula for success was a great private public partnership going back to Alexander Hamilton and built upon by Lincoln, Eisenhower, other (person asking question used the word ecosystem).  5 main pillars of this formulate for success/ecosystem:

  1. Education
  2. Infrastructure
  3. Open immigration policy
  4. Best rules for capital formation and risk taking
  5. Solid gov’t funded research

We’ve moved away from these 5 puillars of success and we’ve treated our nation like it’s a football that can be dropped w/ no resulting issues; the reality is we’re more like an egg; in another analogy, we can cut and hit arteries quickly…doing actual damage.

We misread environment — at end of cold war we put our feet up, thinking victory was won; the U.S. chased Al Queda instead of China, Brazil, other

Q&A

  • Q: Influence — how changed and how stay the same
    A: To have influence, must get substance  right — content is key; diamond-hard realities are key; not the spins; still need to do grunt, basic work; can never be a Thor throwing down lightning bolts from on high
  • Q: Labor arbitrage
    A: Rebalancing happening, but may take time; what was outsourced may not stay where originally went to
  • Q & A about Occupy Wall Street — was/is about injustice; taking $ and treating it like they were in a casino; people doing that got away with it; what will leadership look like in a hyperconnected world?

Final thoughts:

  • Idea of OODA loop from the world of Air Force pilots — observe, ___ decide, act  — speed of OODA loops are key; our political leaders are talking about A when X,Y, and Z are really happening (and the two circles rarely intersect)
  • How long can we be a great country when our political systems cannot deliver optimal results?
  • Our political system needs shock therapy — Friedman argues that we need a 3rd party — see AmericansElect.org

From DSC:
Each of us must be able to continually do pulse checks on a variety of forces that may be affecting our domains/places of work. We must be able to develop future scenarios and our responses to those scenarios. The ability to do that will become even more important as we move forward at ever-increasing speeds. 

We can’t be looking 5-10 feet ahead when we’re driving at 180 miles per hour in this new, hyper-connected world!

The pace has changed significantly and quickly

 

 

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No more business as usual [Cross]

On 01/12/2012, in change, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, leadership, learning ecosystem, lifelong learning, love of learning, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, training / L&D, by Daniel Christian

No more business as usual — from internettime.com by Jay Cross

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

Business is changing, and the learning function must change along with it.

…

Learning is no longer optional
Continuous improvement and delighting customers require a culture of pervasive learning. We’re not talking classes and workshops here. Creating a new order of business requires learning ecologies — what we’ve been calling Workscapes — that make it simple and enjoyable for people to learn what they need to get the job done. Companies that fail to learn will wither and die.

As all business becomes social business, L&D professionals face a momentous choice. They can remain Chief Training Officers and instructors who get novices up to speed, deliver events required by compliance, and run in-house schools. These folks will be increasingly out of step with the times.

Or they can become business leaders who shape learning cultures, social networks, collaborative practices, information flows, federated content management, just-in-time performance support, customer feedback mechanisms, and structures for continuous improvement.

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Population of needy college students is exploding [de Vise]

On 01/11/2012, in business side of he, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, economics, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, United States, by Daniel Christian

Population of needy college students is exploding — from The Washington Post by Daniel de Vise

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

A higher education official from Wisconsin who attended the recent Council of Independent Colleges conference in Florida made a remarkable statement during a question-and-answer session.

There is a group of students who enter college with such dire financial need that the amount the federal government expects their families to contribute to college is effectively zero. In Wisconsin, that zero-pay population has grown by half in a single year: from 42,641 students in the 2008-09 academic year to 65,800 in 2009-10.

The data come from Rolf Wegenke, president of the Wisconsin Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, and surely they mirror a national trend.

Incoming college students have grown markedly more needy since the 2008 economic downturn.

From DSC:
This perfect storm that continues to amass must be addressed.

How can all institutions of higher education — across the board — cut tuition costs by 50% or more?

That should be the #1 question boards are asking themselves throughout 2012 until they have some ideas/answers — then begin experimenting with implementing those pilots/ideas/potential directions.  If not, the conversation will continue to move outside of academia and fewer people will even care what those of us inside higher ed think.  The development of a Walmart of Education has become a sure thing in my mind — it will happen. In fact, it’s already started.

 

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Moxie’s 2012 Trends Report [From DSC: Well worth your time!]

On 01/06/2012, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, A/V -- audio/visual, analytics, change, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, collaboration, communications, convergence, corporate / business world, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, digital storytelling, digital textbooks, digital video, disruption, distance education, e-books, e-publishing related items (EPUB and more), e-readers, education technology, elearning, emerging technologies, engagement / engaging students, future, game-changing environment, global / globalization, human-computer interaction (HCI), internet, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, lifelong learning, machine-to-machine communications, marketing/social marketing, marketplaces, mirroring and/or multiple devices, mobile learning, mobile technologies, more voice more choice more control, multimedia, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, new media literacies, online learning, online media, online tutoring, pace of change, reinvent, smart/connected TV, social learning / networks, social media, staying relevant, storytelling, streams of content, tablets, technologies for your home, technology (general), telecommunications, transmedia, trends, ubiquitous learning, videoconferencing, web-based collaboration, workplace, by Daniel Christian

 

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The Evolving Digital Ecosystem - from Moxie's Trends for 2012

  • The Always On Web
  • Web of Things
  • Big Data
  • Next Gen Search
  • Mobile Sharing
  • Mobile Social Activism
  • Impulse Commerce
  • Brands As Partners
  • The New Living Room  <– From DSC: This is one of those key areas that I’m trying to keep a pulse check on for re: our learning ecosystems of the future 
  • Personal Data Security

 

Also see:

 

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The consumerization of IT and several other tech predictions for 2012

On 12/30/2011, in Adobe, Apple, change, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, future, Google, innovation, IT in HE, leadership, Microsoft, mobile technologies, staying relevant, strategy, by Daniel Christian

2012 tech predictions: From IDG’s editors worldwide –– from InfoWorld by David Bromley
Consumerization of IT is the consensus choice of the new year’s major technology force, one that will manifest itself in several forms

Several other commonly-mentioned items were:

  • Mobility
  • Patent disputes
  • Apple & Steve Jobs
  • BYOD (bring your own device to work) movement

Also see:

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An open letter to university administrators by Clayton Christensen: 8 thoughts on higher education in 2012

On 12/29/2011, in budgets, business side of he, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, funding / grants, future of higher education, game-changing environment, innovation, legislatures / government / legal, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, by Daniel Christian

Excerpts from An open letter to university administrators by Clayton Christensen

Defending the status quo is futile, and it’s no fun. Given fiscal realities beyond the control of university administrators, defending the operational status quo means choosing between big, focused cuts or death by a thousand small ones. Trading up to a larger school offers no escape from the grisly task of doing less with less.

…

Clinging to tradition will worsen individual and institutional disruption, while embracing innovation will hasten a new era of higher education productivity—not only of well-educated degree holders, but of new knowledge.

 Also see:

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BERKELEY, Calif. — Across the nation, a historic collapse in state funding for higher education threatens to diminish the stature of premier public universities and erode their mission as engines of upward social mobility.

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Will your college survive? [Katzman] Also Mary Sue Coleman’s Open Letter to President Obama.

On 12/19/2011, in cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, leadership, Michigan, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, by Daniel Christian

Will your college survive? –– from TechCrunch.com by John Katzman

college

 

Editor’s note: Guest contributor John Katzman is the founder and CEO of 2tor, an education startup that partners with universities to deliver selective degree programs online to students across the world. Katzman also founded the Princeton Review where he served as president and CEO from 1981-2007.

The Internet will save higher education, but it may kill your alma mater.

Peter Thiel believes smart people don’t need college, and he’s right: There have always been autodidacts who can learn without assistance. Of course, we don’t really need supermarkets and restaurants either; we could all grow and cook our own food.

Yet having professionals help us has always been a cost-benefit decision. What are the costs of a great education, including the opportunity cost of four years of work, and how do these costs balance against the impact of that education on your life?

The Internet is the first technology since the printing press, which could lower the cost of a great education and, in doing so, make that cost-benefit analysis much easier for most students. It could allow American schools to service twice as many students as they do now, and in ways that are both effective and cost-effective. For reasons that will be outlined below, however, it will probably end up doing this with half as many schools. And your school, even if it’s bumper-sticker worthy, might not make the cut.

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Evolve or Else

Like any other disruptive transition, the move to online and blended universities will bring tremendous benefit to students—better education in more places at lower tuition. However, these changes will be painful for many schools. Most bookstores and travel agencies found themselves on the wrong side of a steadily growing force; the schools that thrive over the next two decades will do so only because they have carefully harnessed that very same force: the Internet.

 

Also see:

  • Mary Sue Coleman’s (President of the University of Michigan) Open Letter to President Obama
    Mary Sue Coleman is president of the University of Michigan and chair of the Association of American Universities.
    Excerpt:
    And yet college is costly – too costly for some families. To meet the myriad needs of students and society, we absolutely must find ways to provide a college education at a cost that is sustainable. President Thomas Jefferson was rightfully adamant that a cornerstone of democracy is education for all, “from the richest to the poorest.”
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Another warning sign to those of us working within higher ed.

On 12/14/2011, in 21st century, accreditation, budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, disruption, elearning, emerging technologies, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, internet, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, online learning, reinvent, staying relevant, by Daniel Christian

Do not underestimate or discount the disruptive power of technology! Daniel S. Christian -- June 2009

 

From DSC:
The tidal wave of technological change swept over Blockbuster and the article below shows how it drowned Kodak as well. These players were once at THEE top of their games…now they are either bankrupt or soon to be bankrupt (if things don’t change fast).

This relates to higher education as well, but I don’t think that we’ve seen anything yet (though 2012 may change that). Higher ed may have a limited window of time left before the conversation moves completely out of academia and higher ed as we know it gets left behind. The word “reinvent” and the phrases “staying relevant” as well as “lowering the price” should be at the top of the agendas for boards at most academic institutions of higher education throughout America (and other nations as well). I use the word most here because some folks will likely continue to pay enormous prices to get the name brands that they’ve been paying $50,000+ per year for.

If companies eventually don’t care who accredited your degree but rather what you can DO for them, watch out. The barriers to entry will plummet.

 

You Press the Button. Kodak Used to Do the Rest. — from technologyreview.com
Kodak saw the shift from analog to digital photography coming. Here’s why it couldn’t win.

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Excerpt (emphasis from DSC):

But the industry landscape was completely different in the digital era. Barriers to entry were significantly lowered and the industry was flooded by entrants with a background in consumer electronics, such as Casio, Samsung, and Hewlett-Packard, not to mention Japanese camera manufacturers including Canon, Nikon, and Olympus. Large parts of Kodak’s competence base related to chemistry and film manufacturing were rendered obsolete. The vertical integration that had previously been a core asset to Kodak lost its value. Digital cameras became a commodity business with low margins. The problem facing Kodak wasn’t just that film profits had died but that those revenues could not be replaced.

Once images became digital, Kodak’s business model of “doing the rest” was effectively destroyed. Doing the rest used to entail a large and complex process that only a couple of companies in the world could master. Today, it is done by the click of a button.

Related graphic from DSC:

From Daniel S. ChristianAlso see:

 

12/15/11 addendum re: the conversation moving away from higher ed:

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

No single blog can adequately capture or represent what was going on at Learning 2011. But if you are intrigued, I suggest you go to www.Learning2011and see what the agenda and the presentations looked like for yourself.
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What I sensed, and what I am trying to describe here, was an accelerating transition in workforce education from a higher education-centric model to a learner-workplace-centric model. In a world where higher education institutions have dominated, controlled, and driven the conversation about quality, content, access, and results; the balance of power is shifting away from that more monolithic tendency to a far more disaggregated power structure where good information, metrics, and results that can be validated against third party standards are the “coin of the realm”.

 

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Excerpt of “The Digital Promise” infographic [onlineschools.org]

On 11/22/2011, in career development, education, future, higher education, K-12 related, staying relevant, technology (general), workplace, by Daniel Christian

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Companies lose control of their customers or their markets when…[Leonhard]

On 11/21/2011, in content development, aggregation, repositories, corporate / business world, future, game-changing environment, global / globalization, new business models, publishing, reinvent, staying relevant, technology (general), trends, by Daniel Christian

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— excerpted slides from
http://gerdleonhard.typepad.com/files/telemedia-and-content-gerd-leonhard-total-telecom-public.pdf

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Could “Badges for Lifelong Learning” be our tipping point? [Davidson]

On 11/18/2011, in change, dangers of the status quo, digital learning, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, lifelong learning, reinvent, staying relevant, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Could “Badges for Lifelong Learning” be our tipping point? –– from hastac.org by Cathy Davidson

Excerpt:

As more and more fascinating and creative and surprising applications to our DML Badges for Lifelong Learning Competition flood in (we’re at almost 100 and the competition does not close until the end of today), I am wondering if, a hundred years from now, some historian ploughing through the dusty data archives of the Internet, will see this moment as digital learning’s tipping point. I mean that.

This could be our tipping point for how we measure, the entry point to thinking up an array of new forms of deciding what counts for our era.

…

So many of us work in schools or in jobs where what counts has been decided for us. The array of badging systems in these applications is starting to suggest that there are many, many of us who are frustrated with our inherited systems and want to come up with new ways of deciding what we want to count, what we want to value and acknowledge and credit and reward. A badge system can be the symbol of all that, visible proof of  some quality of participation and contribution that previously wasn’t even defined.

 

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From DSC: An important note to publishers of academic/educational materials!

On 11/18/2011, in CMS/LMS, Daniel S. Christian, education technology, higher education, innovation, instructional design, new business models, online media, publishing, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, by Daniel Christian

From Daniel Christian -- November 2011 -- An important note to publishers of academic/educational materials!

 

From DSC:
We really need a much more granular approach — like an iTunes for academic content.

 

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If not now, when? [Sannier] Relates to the question “Will higher ed respond and stay relevant?” [DSC]

On 11/09/2011, in budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, education technology, elearning, emerging technologies, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, IT in HE, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, reinvent, society, staying relevant, by Daniel Christian

If not now, when? –– from Educause ReviewMagazine  by Adrian Sannier
Adrian Sannier is Digital Strategist and Senior Vice President of Product at Pearson eCollege and is Professor of Computing Studies at Arizona State University, where he was also the University Technology Officer prior to joining Pearson eCollege.

Excerpt:

Strong signs are indicating that higher education is finally on the verge of a long-awaited digital shift. Given that experts have been prophesying such a shift for more than forty years, with little if any real change, it’s reasonable to approach such a statement with healthy skepticism. Various factors—some cultural, some technological—have indeed retarded progress along this path to the future. Nevertheless, the unprecedented challenges facing the educational system, combined with higher education’s cultural success at solving daunting challenges through the widespread application of information technology, have created the conditions for rapid change. In the coming months, we will see major shifts in the role that technology plays in the creation, distribution, consumption, and improvement of learning experiences. And education will never be the same.

…

Beyond Textbooks, Beyond Bookstores, Beyond Learning Management Systems, Beyond School—the changes introduced by technology have already begun. The digital shift is upon us. If other industries and other fields are any guide, once the dominos begin to fall, progress will be swift and irreversible.

I, for one, can’t wait to be a part of it. If not now, when?

 

From DSC:
Readers of this blog will not be surprised at what I’m about to say…

Higher ed, if we are wise, will quickly wake up and heed the disruptive changes that have already occurred within other industries (i.e. those caused by a variety of technologies).  The following quote is especially relevant for those of us in higher education, because the conversation is no longer being controlled by those within the world of higher education. 

“For the first time, the tools to drive change and improve learning lie beyond the scope and the control of the academy, in the community which surrounds it. So, for the first time in our history, colleges and universities do not control either the conversation or the drive to innovate. As a consequence, also for the first time, if they stand still, they will be left behind, bobbing in the wake of rapid change.” — HEMG

The writing on the wall is coming into a bolder/stronger/clearer view:  Higher ed needs to respond to society’s needs and to its own customers…otherwise, it will become irrelevant. Much of this is due to what things often come down to — money.

The cost of education is one of the most potent forces acting as a catalyst to these changes — and the tidal waves of technological change will finish the job.


Staying Relevant

 


…and more forcefully illustrated:

 

From Daniel S. Christian

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Thinking about innovation in higher education [Bates]

On 10/28/2011, in budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, future of higher education, higher education, innovation, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, by Daniel Christian

Thinking about innovation in higher education — from Tony Bates

Excerpt:

This article by Peter Stokes, an executive vice-president at Eduventures, has some interesting ideas about how to promote real innovation in the higher education system. In principle, he’s suggesting US Federal funding for a conventional public institution to set up a parallel organization to test alternative ways of organizing, delivering and assessing teaching and learning, but within the Federal regulatory environment to stop diploma mills benefiting from the funding.

Also see:

 

Addendums later on 10/28/11:

  • Where’s the Innovation: Part 1 (Dr. Peter Smith)
    In my next three blogs, I will discuss, with examples, the obstacles faced by existing institutions when they try to innovate, where innovation has already begun and where innovation will come from in the future.
    …
    What makes this moment in time so compelling is that, just as we see the need for a vastly better educated citizenry, the tools to do just that have been revolutionized by the web. For the first time, the tools to drive change and improve learning lie beyond the scope and the control of the academy, in the community which surrounds it. So, for the first time in our history, colleges and universities do not control either the conversation or the drive to innovate. As a consequence, also for the first time, if they stand still, they will be left behind, bobbing in the wake of rapid change (emphasis DSC).
  • Where will innovation begin? — from the Chronicle by Jeff Selingo
    If there was any question that the current model for the vast majority of colleges is not sustainable for much longer, two pieces of news this past week should give the remaining skeptics yet more evidence (emphasis DSC).
    .
    First was the news from a survey of economists that Americans’ incomes, which have dropped some 7 percent since 2000, aren’t expected to even recover those losses until 2021. What’s more, a third of the respondents to the survey said today’s college grads would fare worse than their parents’ generation.
    .
    Then earlier this week we saw news reports of a previously published study on household debt by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which predicted that the total amount of student-loan debt would hit $1-trillion before the end of the year.

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New College Board Trends Reports Price of College Continues to Rise Nationally, with Dramatic Differences in Pricing Policies from State to State [collegeboard.org]

On 10/26/2011, in budgets, business side of he, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, student-related, United States, by Daniel Christian

New College Board Trends Reports Price of College Continues to Rise Nationally, with Dramatic Differences in Pricing Policies from State to State — from collegeboard.org
Increases in federal tax credits, combined with growth in grant aid, help some students cover rising expenses
10/25/2011

Key Tuition and Fee Findings:

  • Published in-state tuition and fees at public four-year institutions average $8,244 in 2011-12, $631 (8.3 percent) higher than in 2010-11. Average total charges, including tuition and fees and room and board, are $17,131, up 6.0 percent.
  • Published out-of-state tuition and fees at public four-year colleges and universities average $20,770, $1,122 (5.7 percent) higher than in 2010-11. Average total charges are $29,657, up 5.2 percent.
  • Published in-state tuition and fees at public two-year colleges average $2,963, $236 (8.7 percent) higher than in 2010-11.
  • Published tuition and fees at private nonprofit four-year colleges and universities average $28,500 in 2011-12, $1,235 (4.5 percent) higher than in 2010-11. Average total charges, including tuition and fees and room and board, are $38,589, up 4.4 percent.
  • Published tuition and fees at for-profit institutions average an estimated $14,487 in 2011-12, 3.2 percent higher than in 2010-11.
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