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The Evolving Digital Ecosystem - from Moxie's Trends for 2012

  • The Always On Web
  • Web of Things
  • Big Data
  • Next Gen Search
  • Mobile Sharing
  • Mobile Social Activism
  • Impulse Commerce
  • Brands As Partners
  • The New Living Room  <– From DSC: This is one of those key areas that I’m trying to keep a pulse check on for re: our learning ecosystems of the future 
  • Personal Data Security

 

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From DSC:
I read the following quote from Codecademy signs up 97,000 people for its New Year’s resolution coding class (emphasis mine):

Codecademy, a startup that uses interactive online lessons to turn anyone into a computer programmer, has signed up 97,000 students in less than 48 hours for its New Year’s resolution class Code Year.  That’s more than twice as many students as were enrolled in the 150 U.S. computer science undergraduate programs that the Computer Research Association surveyed last year.

This is both positive and troubling to me. Positive in that more people will learn how to program across the world, and thus (hopefully) becoming qualified to fill many of the open programming-related positions out there.  It’s troubling in that the quote mentions that within 48 hours, the number of students signed up was already more than twice the number of students enrolled in Computer Science programs at the undergraduate level in the entire United States.

What does that statement tell us?

  • Are there a lot more people interested in programming out there but can’t afford to pay their way through an undergraduate program?
  • That many people aren’t qualified to get into an undergraduate program but are hoping to gain skills anyway?
  • Perhaps people are just trying it out and many won’t actually pursue this route…
  • Perhaps there’s some duplication here, as some of the same undergrads are also enrolled in Codeacademy…
  • Perhaps the people taking these courses won’t be qualified…but perhaps they will be qualified…
  • Perhaps a student-teaching-student model will unfold here with massive FAQ’s and examples being developed over time…

Hmmm…regardless, this is an excellent example of the disruption being caused by technology and the Internet. I expect many more examples in 2012. Perhaps the “Walmart of Education” that I’ve been tracking over the years will have different components to it, with one major piece of it coming from the Codeacademy’s of the world.

Some of the questions that come to my mind for those of us working within higher education are:

  • How do we help educate the world at more reasonable prices?
  • What opportunities does the Internet offer us?
  • What new business models and transformations should we be pursuing that use the Internet?
  • Are there things that we can do to better address why all of these people are not enrolling in our undergraduate CS programs?

 

TVs to become ‘communications hub’ expert claims — from t3.com by Luke Johnson
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Also see:

  • Smart TV is ready for the Apple television moment — from ComputerWorld.com by Jonny Evans
  • Voice Control Will Disrupt Living Room Electronics — from techpinions.com by Patrick Moorhead
    Excerpt:
    In what seems to be a routine in high-tech journalism and social media now is to speculate on what Apple will do next. The latest and greatest rumor is that Apple will develop an HDTV set. I wrote back in September that Apple should build a TV given the lousy experience and Apple’s ability to fix big user challenges. What hasn’t been talked about a lot is why voice command and control makes so much sense in home electronics and why it will dominate the living room. Its all about the content.

Excerpts from An open letter to university administrators by Clayton Christensen

Defending the status quo is futile, and it’s no fun. Given fiscal realities beyond the control of university administrators, defending the operational status quo means choosing between big, focused cuts or death by a thousand small ones. Trading up to a larger school offers no escape from the grisly task of doing less with less.

Clinging to tradition will worsen individual and institutional disruption, while embracing innovation will hasten a new era of higher education productivity—not only of well-educated degree holders, but of new knowledge.

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BERKELEY, Calif. — Across the nation, a historic collapse in state funding for higher education threatens to diminish the stature of premier public universities and erode their mission as engines of upward social mobility.

Marc Andreessen: Predictions for 2012 (and beyond)  — from cnet.com by Paul Sloan

Excerpt:

Software has chewed up music and publishing. It’s eaten away at Madison Avenue. It’s swallowed up retail outlets like Tower Records. The list goes on.

No area is safe–and that’s why Andreessen sees so much opportunity.

Fueling his optimism: ubiquitous broadband, cloud computing, and, above all, the smartphone revolution. In the 1990s, the Internet led to crazy predictions that simply weren’t yet possible. Now they are.

Will your college survive?– from TechCrunch.com by John Katzman

college

 

Editor’s note: Guest contributor John Katzman is the founder and CEO of 2tor, an education startup that partners with universities to deliver selective degree programs online to students across the world. Katzman also founded the Princeton Review where he served as president and CEO from 1981-2007.

The Internet will save higher education, but it may kill your alma mater.

Peter Thiel believes smart people don’t need college, and he’s right: There have always been autodidacts who can learn without assistance. Of course, we don’t really need supermarkets and restaurants either; we could all grow and cook our own food.

Yet having professionals help us has always been a cost-benefit decision. What are the costs of a great education, including the opportunity cost of four years of work, and how do these costs balance against the impact of that education on your life?

The Internet is the first technology since the printing press, which could lower the cost of a great education and, in doing so, make that cost-benefit analysis much easier for most students. It could allow American schools to service twice as many students as they do now, and in ways that are both effective and cost-effective. For reasons that will be outlined below, however, it will probably end up doing this with half as many schools. And your school, even if it’s bumper-sticker worthy, might not make the cut.

..

Evolve or Else

Like any other disruptive transition, the move to online and blended universities will bring tremendous benefit to students—better education in more places at lower tuition. However, these changes will be painful for many schools. Most bookstores and travel agencies found themselves on the wrong side of a steadily growing force; the schools that thrive over the next two decades will do so only because they have carefully harnessed that very same force: the Internet.

 

Also see:

  • Mary Sue Coleman’s (President of the University of Michigan) Open Letter to President Obama
    Mary Sue Coleman is president of the University of Michigan and chair of the Association of American Universities.
    Excerpt:
    And yet college is costly – too costly for some families. To meet the myriad needs of students and society, we absolutely must find ways to provide a college education at a cost that is sustainable. President Thomas Jefferson was rightfully adamant that a cornerstone of democracy is education for all, “from the richest to the poorest.”

Do not underestimate or discount the disruptive power of technology! Daniel S. Christian -- June 2009

 

From DSC:
The tidal wave of technological change swept over Blockbuster and the article below shows how it drowned Kodak as well. These players were once at THEE top of their games…now they are either bankrupt or soon to be bankrupt (if things don’t change fast).

This relates to higher education as well, but I don’t think that we’ve seen anything yet (though 2012 may change that). Higher ed may have a limited window of time left before the conversation moves completely out of academia and higher ed as we know it gets left behind. The word “reinvent” and the phrases “staying relevant” as well as “lowering the price” should be at the top of the agendas for boards at most academic institutions of higher education throughout America (and other nations as well). I use the word most here because some folks will likely continue to pay enormous prices to get the name brands that they’ve been paying $50,000+ per year for.

If companies eventually don’t care who accredited your degree but rather what you can DO for them, watch out. The barriers to entry will plummet.

 

You Press the Button. Kodak Used to Do the Rest. — from technologyreview.com
Kodak saw the shift from analog to digital photography coming. Here’s why it couldn’t win.

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Excerpt (emphasis from DSC):

But the industry landscape was completely different in the digital era. Barriers to entry were significantly lowered and the industry was flooded by entrants with a background in consumer electronics, such as Casio, Samsung, and Hewlett-Packard, not to mention Japanese camera manufacturers including Canon, Nikon, and Olympus. Large parts of Kodak’s competence base related to chemistry and film manufacturing were rendered obsolete. The vertical integration that had previously been a core asset to Kodak lost its value. Digital cameras became a commodity business with low margins. The problem facing Kodak wasn’t just that film profits had died but that those revenues could not be replaced.

Once images became digital, Kodak’s business model of “doing the rest” was effectively destroyed. Doing the rest used to entail a large and complex process that only a couple of companies in the world could master. Today, it is done by the click of a button.

Related graphic from DSC:

From Daniel S. ChristianAlso see:

 

12/15/11 addendum re: the conversation moving away from higher ed:

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

No single blog can adequately capture or represent what was going on at Learning 2011. But if you are intrigued, I suggest you go to www.Learning2011and see what the agenda and the presentations looked like for yourself.
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What I sensed, and what I am trying to describe here, was an accelerating transition in workforce education from a higher education-centric model to a learner-workplace-centric model. In a world where higher education institutions have dominated, controlled, and driven the conversation about quality, content, access, and results; the balance of power is shifting away from that more monolithic tendency to a far more disaggregated power structure where good information, metrics, and results that can be validated against third party standards are the “coin of the realm”.

 

Educational content and learning experiences wirelessly delivered to home TV console — from marketwatch.com

Excerpt:

DALLAS, Dec. 6, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — Don’t touch that dial. A new variety of interactive educational content for the youngsters in the household is headed to a TV near you.

AT&T* today announced an agreement with TVTextbook to provide mobile broadband connectivity to TVTextbook’s eLearning connected device portfolio. TVTextbook (TVT) delivers high-quality K-12 curriculum that is distributed through a learning console connected to the television. Only TVTextbook leverages basic television-a product found in virtually every U.S. household-to help school districts deliver a digital education to 100% of their students. AT&T’s connectivity will bring a seamless, wireless connection between school and home.

From DSC:
Do I think this will be excellent in 2012? No. Do I think it’s innovative? Yes. Do I think it will be potentially helpful to many? Yes…and so will many apps that are coming to our living rooms in the next 1-3 years.

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Blowing out the digital book as we know it– from MindShift by Tina Barseghian

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Inkling also produced the epic The Professional Chef by the Culinary Institute of America. The book in its entirety costs $50, but you can also purchase individual chapters for $3 a piece. The new model makes book buying much like buying music — choose only the pieces you like best.  MacInnis fluidly demonstrates how to float from one chapter to the next, launch videos, close in on images, tap on sidebars and recipe instructions. It’s like watching a magician performing sleight-of-hand tricks.

From DSC:
Books — and textbooks — will continue to be more cloud-based, interactive, multimedia-based, and will be able to be completely up-to-date as they move more towards becoming like apps (vs. hard copy books/textbooks). I see more experimentation in terms of the implementation of social media tools as well as in trying out different business models.  However, when all’s said and done (at least for this next phase), I hope that we can get to the iTunes-like purchasing model mentioned above. I think students, faculty, and staff at educational institutions would benefit greatly from this. 

As of 11/20/11 (~2:00pm EST)

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As of 8/24/11:

usdebtclock.org

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From DSC:
With the increase in globalization — and from what I’ve seen happening in the financial systems (i.e. how what happens in Europe affects the financial systems in the U.S./Asia/other and vice versa) — it seems clear that we are all in this boat together.  If that’s true, what does that mean for:

  • Businesses and economies around the world?
  • The ability of families and individuals to afford the increasing cost of getting a degree?
  • Higher educational systems — and business models — around the world?
  • How do we resolve such massive problems?
  • What does all of this mean for how we should be educating our students?

 

Addendum on 11/21/11:

  • Debt committee: Why $1.2 trillion isn’t enough — from money.cnn.com by Jeanne Sahadi
    Excerpts:
    That’s because under the most likely scenario, reducing deficits by $1.2 trillion won’t stop the accumulated debt from growing faster than the economy.

    Thus, to stabilize the debt, Congress would need to pass a debt-reduction plan worth $4 trillion to $6 trillion, budget experts say.

HTML5 program promises to be game changer — from mediapost.com by Diane Mermigas

Also see:

  • Elevation Partners Director and Co-Founder Roger McNamee [Video-based presentation]
    Chapters (full program: 52 min 22 sec)
    01. Introduction
    02. Demise of Microsoft means opportunity
    03. Google in a tough spot
    04. Creativity rules in HTML5
    05.  Apple domination in tablets
    06.  Access from any screen
    07.  The social wave is over
    08.  TV the last protected media
    09.  Economic context and seed investing
    10.  Why Apple supports HTML5
    11.  Privacy regulation
    12.  HTML5 implications for content protection
    13.  Investment in Forbes
    14. Ringback tones
    15. Money in the music industry
    16. Subscription television

 

  • #1: “Next” web architecture = Hypernet + Hyperweb
  • #2: The decline & fall of Windows unlocks revenue
  • #3: Index search is peaking
  • #4: Apple’s model threatens web
  • #5: HTML5 is game changer for publishers
    HTML5 is not just a programming language; enables new models of web experience
    – Developers will embed audio and video directly in web pages, replacing Adobe’s Flash plug-in; enables much greater differentiation in sites, advertising, etc.
    – Content publishers will redesign their sites to reduce power of Google, ad networks
    HTML5 will be disruptive in ways we cannot imagine today: pendulum swinging to favor content creators and publishers. Imagine Amazon or eBay storefront as an ad.
    – Everything can be an app . . . every piece of content . . . every tweet . . . every ad
    – Ads: create demand and fulfill it at the same time . . . without leaving publisher’s page
    – Other tech (e.g., Wordnik) enables publishers to protect and monetize text onsite and off
  • #6: Tablets are hugely disruptive
  • #7: First wave of “social web” is over
  • #8: Smartphones in US: Apple + 7 Dwarfs
  • #9: Wireless infrastructure is a competitive threat to US
  • #10: Integration of TV & Internet could be disruptive

 

From DSC:

  • A recommendation that caught my eye:
    Focus 100% on companies that are cloud + multiscreen; HTML 5 as proxy.

 

Cloud Learning as Universal Primary Education — from Teemu Arina

Excerpts:

The internet is lowering the transaction costs of learning. This leads to a situation where learning happens more and more in the open markets, in a distributed and decentralized manner. It is obvious that the primary interface will be based on mobile, cloud-based devices. Some principles…

There are effectively three levels of certification: 1st hand, 2nd hand and 3rd hand certification.

  • 1st hand certification is what you say you know.
    In the old world you would describe your skills in a resume and leave it to the employer to evaluate if that holds true. In the new world you can make your work and learning processes visible as it happens, demonstrating progress and increasing the believability of your 1st hand descriptions. A simple blog (a log of thoughts) makes reflection visible  and demonstrates the evolution and iteration of thinking as it happens.
  • 2nd hand certification is what others say about you.
    In the old world you would describe your references in a resume and leave it to the employer to call these references to evaluate if these people really value your work and learning. In the new world people accumulate links, likes and comments to the resources you produce on social networks. A Klout score on social media or a personal stock price based on social media activity on EmpireAvenue demonstrate your social capital through a simple metric. The question is, are you making an impact with your progress, enabling other people to build on top of your work through reflection and co-creation, or are you effectively invisible to others?
  • 3rd hand certification is what an authority says about you.
    In the old world you would get a certificate on hand to add in your resume that you have demonstrated the ability to pass a specific rat test (a school). This doesn’t necessarily mean you have mastered all the topics involved, but it demonstrates that you have been capable of passing such tests under the supervision of an authority. In the new world a single test in isolation is not enough but your ability to solve problems in connection with others.

ClaytonChristensen-ForbesVideo-Oct2011

Clayton Christensen on disruptive innovators and how to hire a milkshake.
From the University Of Phoenix Lecture Series:
http://www.phoenix.edu/lectures.html

Originally saw at Online Learning Update

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