The MOOC Business Plan — from campustechnology.com by David Raths
With millions of students taking high-quality MOOCs for free, schools and course providers are now searching for a viable business model.

Excerpt:

Name a product sold in stores for thousands of dollars that can be obtained for free online. If you’re struggling for an answer, don’t be surprised–no company would last very long under those circumstances. Yet that’s exactly the predicament in which higher education finds itself as MOOCs begin to disrupt the traditional post-secondary model. Schools are giving away what was once their most valued treasure–the intellectual property of their faculty–for nothing.

Obviously, it’s not a sustainable business model, so what’s next? Where will the money come from? While it may seem surprising, no one really seems to know. For many colleges and universities, the current environment more closely resembles a high-stakes game of musical chairs–everyone is terrified of being left without a chair when the music stops. But the game is being played by more than just schools. From a business standpoint, higher education is ripe for reinvention, and it has attracted a slew of companies–both old and new–that smell significant profit.

For Coursera, this task is already under way. “Some business models are becoming clear,” says Andrew Ng, cofounder of the for-profit company. “Some we are confident will work; others we are still experimenting with.”

“You could have a certificate of a course completed at Duke University [NC]–that could be a valuable credential,” adds Ng. “We have projected that this alone will lead us to sustainability. In the first quarter of the signature track, we brought in $220,000, and in the second quarter, which hasn’t ended yet, we roughly doubled that amount. So we project that by itself that will make us sustainable.”

 

Jeff Bezos on Post purchase — from washingtonpost.com

 

David McNew/Getty Images – The Washington Post Co. has agreed to sell its flagship newspaper
to Amazon.com founder and chief executive Jeff Bezos for $250 million August 5, 2013.

 

Excerpt of comments:

The Internet is transforming almost every element of the news business: shortening news cycles, eroding long-reliable revenue sources, and enabling new kinds of competition, some of which bear little or no news-gathering costs. There is no map, and charting a path ahead will not be easy. We will need to invent, which means we will need to experiment. Our touchstone will be readers, understanding what they care about – government, local leaders, restaurant openings, scout troops, businesses, charities, governors, sports – and working backwards from there. I’m excited and optimistic about the opportunity for invention.

 

‘Shake Up’ for Higher Ed — from insidehighered.com by Scott Jaschik

Excerpt:

President Obama vowed Wednesday that he would soon unveil a plan to promote significant reform in higher education — with an emphasis on controlling what colleges charge students and families.

“[I]n the coming months, I will lay out an aggressive strategy to shake up the system, tackle rising costs, and improve value for middle-class students and their families. It is critical that we make sure that college is affordable for every single American who’s willing to work for it,” said Obama, in a speech at Knox College.

“Families and taxpayers can’t just keep paying more and more and more into an undisciplined system where costs just keep on going up and up and up. We’ll never have enough loan money, we’ll never have enough grant money, to keep up with costs that are going up 5, 6, 7 percent a year. We’ve got to get more out of what we pay for,” Obama said.

From DSC:
At a $175 billion per year support for postsecondary education, if the Federal Government starts redirecting this flow of $$$…I’ll bet we’ll see some change…and rather quickly I might add. 

The Walmart of Education (as predicted back in December 2008) is now here, but I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. To what will we change? At least one major piece of the answer to that question is that we will see the continued — but increasing — use of teams of specialists that will be commissioned to create low-cost, highly-engaging content. Though expensive to create originally, such teams will more than make their money back because of the massive number of students such “courses” will serve.

 

From the Walmart of Education page on 4/11/09:

…I wanted to offer another idea that might help fund engaging, multimedia-based, online-based learning materials:
(NOTE: The figures I use are not accurate, but rather, they are used for illustration purposes only.)

Let’s reallocate funds towards course development, and then let’s leverage those learning materials throughout the world!

Reallocate funds to course development, and bring costs WAAAAYYYY down and ACCESS WAAAYYY  UP!

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For students: Bring costs waaaayyyyy down and access waaayyy up!

Plus, no more defaulted loans, students could experience richer content, students wouldn’t have to wait as much on financial aid decisions. There would be fewer financial aid headaches; and the resources devoted to figuring out & processing financial aid could be reduced. The issue will be how an institution can differentiate itself in such a new world…but that issue will have to be dealt with in the future anyway.

 

 

 
Technological Advances Demand Adaptation from Public Higher Education — from evoLLLution.com by Henry Bienen | President Emeritus, Northwestern University
Excerpt:

Change is coming at a fast pace. Public institutions will need to behave more like private ones, ensuring they can finance themselves and deliver quality programs that benefit their students. Educational technologies will need to be employed for building new models of learning, ones that marshal expensive faculty time more productively and effectively, rather than relegating the majority of instruction to those outside the core faculty. Faculty will need to step up to their role in governance and demonstrate they can support change for the greater good. For-profit corporations will need to demonstrate their utility as partners in creating academic opportunities for students. Additionally, university and faculty leadership will need to mount a convincing argument for the centrality of the liberal arts as the lynchpin of what it means to be educated and what it takes to be successful.

 

Employment & Sustainability:  Report of the Cornell ILR School 2013 Roundtable on Employment and Technology — from ilr.cornell.edu

Excerpt:

The Great Recession has compounded the ongoing forces of technological change and globalization to drive an even more profound transformation in the relationships between Americans and work. Jobs are disappearing, skill sets are a moving target and the evolving concept of earning a sustainable living is becoming increasingly complex and, for many, increasingly remote.

The Cornell ILR School, a renowned leader in advancing the world of work, recognizes that today’s and tomorrow’s challenges demand a new paradigm, one that joins together the many highly educated – but also siloed – discussions about employers’ use of new technologies and the impact on quality job creation.

On April 12, 2013, the ILR School convened 40 economists and engineers, academics and corporate executives, social scientists and philanthropists, policy makers and journalists and statisticians in a ground-breaking, cross-sector, invitation-only dialogue. It was a day full of agreement, fervently diverse opinions and insights – notably that most participants had never before discussed these issues with such a varied group of stakeholders, and that the country’s best hope for reaping widespread gains from technological progress rests on continuing and expanding such discourse.

 

Also see:

Should we fear “the end of work”? — from pbs.org by Frank Koller

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

Key points raised and addressed:

  • Technological advancement and globalization are significantly impacting U.S. jobs and raising the risk that more and more U.S. workers will be caught “in the middle” as jobs migrate to higher-skill and lower-skill work.
  • Collection of U.S. economic data for measuring work and the labor market is not keeping pace with the rapidly changing world of work.
  • As globalization and technology make it more efficient for companies to engage fewer U.S. workers, and more of them in countries such as India and China, these forces are also changing the U.S. innovation advantage.
  • Current conceptualization of Corporate Social Responsibility isn’t enough.

Overall, there was widespread agreement that a much broader and more vigorous national discussion is needed regarding the short- and longer-term impacts of technological advances on the nature of work, the creation and elimination of jobs, and the ability of U.S. workers to earn a sustainable living.

“There is a real need for corporate leadership, and there is a need for accountability. When companies engage in productivity layoffs with record profitability, unprecedented levels of cash and all-time-high stock prices, no one in the media says, ‘Isn’t this terrible?’ No political leader speaks up to protest. We don’t hear anything from the labor unions. The companies are applauded for it because they’re cutting costs and improving profitability, and that’s supposedly what a company exists for. But it’s not that simple. They do have other responsibilities.”

“In terms of a market failure, it’s the reality that it’s not in the interests of any individual firm in the United States to try to solve the jobs problem. So, we’ve got to figure out a way to deal with that…and the only way that you solve this is by getting people and institutions and organizations to work together, to engage these issues collectively.

“It’s about an institutional failure over the last 30 years. With the decline of the labor movement, you’ve seen a lot of institutions go downhill equivalently. We don’t see the kind of dialogue, we don’t see the enforcement of our social norms and social policies that discipline corporations, and that really provided the kind of collective spreading of wage patterns and wage norms across the society.

“We’ve got to rebuild those, but we can’t try to rebuild them in an old-fashioned way. Now we’re in a more digital economy, a more knowledge-based economy, and we need to invent the new institutions that will cut across and aggregate these interests to address these challenges. We’ve got to get the education community working with business and employers, working with labor and civil society.

“I’m not a believer that technology is going to naturally eliminate jobs and cut income, but if we don’t do anything about it, if we just leave it, as we have, to individual market forces and to individual corporate actions and to individual technology innovations, then that’s probably where we are headed.

 

 

 
Gazing through mud: The campus and you in 50 years — from evoLLLution.com (where LLL stands for lifelong learning) by John Ebersole, President, Excelsior College
Excerpts:

Both types of institutions will be fewer in number as consolidations and closures continue, at an accelerated pace. Those that overcome the academy’s inherent aversion to change and risk are the most likely to survive.

Let’s remember that the half-life of knowledge is falling at an astonishing rate. What is relevant today, especially in technical fields, can become obsolete within a matter of a few years, if not months. At the same time, there is an explosion in information. It has been noted that we’re now exposed to more information in one year than our grandparents were in a lifetime.

In summary, the units extending the reach of universities in the future will no longer be on the fringe. Their academic and professional development offerings will instead become central to the institution’s mission.

 

From DSC:
Some additional reflections:

1)  Curated streams of content — broken out by discipline/topic — will be key.  Lifelong learning. Keeps you relevant/informed throughout your career.  A potentially-prominent format might be learning “channels” — populated with information from bots, presented on “Smart TV’s,” with quick access available to a human Subject Matter Expert (SME) or tutor upon request.   Perhaps there will be different levels of SME’s, tutors, mentors, etc. with corresponding $$ rates. 

2)  Interactive video — such as we’re beginning to see with Touchcast — could be very powerful in online-based learning materials.

3)  Educational gaming will likely be a powerful, engaging format.

4)  We could likely be moving towards more of a team-based approach –as one person likely won’t be able to do it all anymore (at least not at a level that will successfully compete).  The higher production qualities and sophistication necessary to compete may force many institutions to pool their resources with other institutions (i.e. more consortia).

5)  The unbundling process will likely continue throughout higher ed (i.e. think of iTunes and the album/CD).

 

Example slides from
Will Richardson’s solid presentation at ISTE 2013, entitled ” Abundant Learning: Four newish ideas for powerful classrooms”

 

AbundantLearning-WillRichardson-June2013

 

 

From DSC:
This idea of self-directed/owned learning is spot on — and not just for those in K-12, but also for those in higher education and for those in the corporate world as well! It unleashes an enormous amount of intrinsic energy, motivation, drive, grit.

Each person needs to own and build their learning ecosystem — identifying one’s gifts, talents, passions, interests and then going out and developing those things.  If we each do what we do best, the whole world benefits.  As we will need others along the way — a team-based approach, communities of practice, and several of the other things/skills Will alluded to will be very important as well.

 

 

 

Then globalization and the Internet changed everything. Customers suddenly had real choices, access to instant reliable information and the ability to communicate with each other. Power in the marketplace shifted from seller to buyer. Customers started insisting on ‘better, cheaper, quicker and smaller,’ along with ‘more convenient, reliable and personalized.’ Continuous, even transformational, innovation have become requirements for survival.”

Steve Denning, “The Management Revolution That’s Already Happening,”
Forbes Magazine, May 30, 2013.

 

 

ChangeIsOptionalDanielChristian-evolllutionDotcom-June2013

 

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PDF of article here

 

 

The management revolution that’s already happening — from forbes.com by Steve Denning

From DSC:
Note how the following excerpts might also apply to higher education in the future (emphasis DSC):

Then globalization and the Internet changed everything. Customers suddenly had real choices, access to instant reliable information and the ability to communicate with each other. Power in the marketplace shifted from seller to buyer. Customers started insisting on “better, cheaper, quicker and smaller,” along with “more convenient, reliable and personalized.” Continuous, even transformational, innovation have become requirements for survival.

Initially mature products and firms were wiped out by upstarts that offered cheap substitutes to their products, first capturing low-end customers, and gradually moving upmarket to pick off higher-end customers.

Even as hierarchical bureaucracy was failing in the private sector, its practices were infecting government, non-profits, education and health. “Reforms” here usually involved stricter implementation of hierarchical bureaucracy rather than a shift towards more productive management practices. As a result, performance was pushed even further from the frontier of what is possible. Since the public is coming to expect responsiveness from these sectors similar to that of the private sector, satisfaction steadily declined.

Their virtue lies in the creative energy with which they are pioneering new ways of adding value.

 

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asdfsadf

 

 

TheNextGenerationUniversity-May2013

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Excerpt:

As the nation struggles to find new ways to increase college access and completion rates while lowering costs, a handful of “Next Generation Universities” are embracing key strategies that make them models for national reform. The report The Next Generation University comes at a time when too many public universities are failing to respond to the nation’s higher education crisis. Rather than expanding enrollment and focusing limited dollars on the neediest of students, many institutions are instead restricting enrollments and encouraging the use of student-aid dollars on merit awards. But, according to the report, some schools are breaking the mold by boldly restructuring operating costs and creating clear, accelerated pathways for students.

Download the full report here.

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In addition to the report, see:

 

Also see:

  • What happens when 2 colleges become one — from chronicle.com by Ricardo Azziz
    Excerpt:
    Earlier this year, Moody’s Investors Service released its annual assessment of higher education in the United States, a report that viewed the sector’s short-term outlook as largely negative amid growing economic pressures. The analysts, however, applauded the efforts of a few states that were trying to merge or consolidate campuses because such efforts “foster operating efficiencies and reduce costs amid declining state support.”

Netflix CEO: ‘TV in the future will be like a giant iPad’ [Ligaya ]

Netflix CEO: ‘TV in the future will be like a giant iPad — from business.financialpost.com by Armina Ligaya

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Q: What do you think is going to happen over the next five or 10 years in internet video?

A: Well, you know, the fundamental thing is the internet has been getting faster. And now it’s video capable, which is really a last-five-years phenomenon. And, internet video will be very transformative across all societies for telemedicine, for online learning, for education. For communication of various sorts. And it brings, whether it’s person to person, or a recorded video like a movie or a TV show, to a person it will be very transformative.

And, TV in the future will be like a giant iPad. It will have a bunch of apps on it, each app will have a unique experience.

So we’re getting beyond just a stream of video, which is all broadcast technology can do, to really try to be innovative about the interaction.

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The Living [Class] Room -- by Daniel Christian -- July 2012 -- a second device used in conjunction with a Smart/Connected TV

 

WhyLeanStartUpChangesEverything-SteveBlank-May2013

 

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

But recently an important countervailing force has emerged, one that can make the process of starting a company less risky. It’s a methodology called the “lean start-up,” and it favors experimentation over elaborate planning, customer feedback over intuition, and iterative design over traditional “big design up front” development. Although the methodology is just a few years old, its concepts—such as “minimum viable product” and “pivoting”—have quickly taken root in the start-up world, and business schools have already begun adapting their curricula to teach them.

From DSC:
This fits into my thinking/recommendation that each institution of higher education should create a much smaller, more nimble group within itself — whose goal is to experiment, pivot, adapt, etc. — in order to find out what’s working and what’s not working.  It’s why I have categories and tags for words like “experimentation,” “staying relevant,” “reinvent,” “innovation,” “surviving,” and “disruption.”

The trick is/will be how NOT to be a commodity –what’s going to differentiate your college or university?

 

 

 

 

The new kind of worker every business needs — from HBR.org by Marina Gorbis

Excerpt (additional emphasis via DSC):

We live in a world in which amplified individuals — people empowered by technologies and the collective intelligence of their social networks — can do things that previously only a large organization could. Indeed, they can do some things that no organization could do before. For better and worse, this is the world in which weekend software hackers can disrupt large software firms, and rapidly orchestrated social movements can bring down governments.

Amplified individuals include artists, musicians, community organizers, and techies working alongside nontechies.

To use a term I introduced in an earlier piece, people like these are engaged in “socialstructing” …

Also see:

Traditional institutions will close, number of colleges and universities will rise (audio and transcript) — from evoLLLution.com (where LLL stands for lifelong learning) by Richard DeMillo | Director of the Center for 21st Century Universities, Georgia Institute of Technology
Excerpt (emphasis DSC):
.

Well, for me, it always boils down to value. People misunderstand this as assigning value based on salaries or employability, but I mean value in the larger sense. You have to have a reason to ask students to pay more than the marginal costs of delivering education. And with all these revolutions in technology for course delivery, that marginal cost is going to zero very, very quickly [think journalism]. So, every institution that’s going to survive, I think, over the next 50 years, is going to have to make that case. Why is it that tuition at this institution is justified?

The interesting thing about this is it’s going to be accelerated because the old bureaucracies, the old institutional models… are crumbling. At least, their boundaries are crumbling. Let me tell you what I mean by that.

The accrediting agencies, which I think traditionally have had — at least for the last 120 years or so—an institutional focus, are now shifting their focus to students; to competencies, to demonstrations of what students know. And that really starts to cut against institutional entitlement.

I think the conclusion of all this is that, as it becomes harder and harder for… a “Me-Too Institution” to argue for a marginal increase in price, the amount of money that those institutions are going to have available to them to spend on anything but core mission for students is also going to go to zero. So, this is kind of a virtuous cycle; … institutions that are unable to make the value proposition will find themselves more and more strapped for discretionary funds in order to move themselves into a different space. And that’s an ending that’s not very good for most institutions.

From DSC:
How will our/your organization keep from becoming a commodity?  What are we/you all going to bring to the table that’s different, unique, and worth paying for?

 

WalmartOfEducation-Christian2008

 

 

Also see:

From DSC:
While I think MOOCs have a ways to go, I continue to support them because they are forcing higher ed to innovate and experiment more.  But the conversation continues to move away from traditional higher ed, as the changes — especially the prices — aren’t changing fast enough.

Besides President Obama’s repeated promptings for higher to respond and to become more cost effective — as well as his mentioning that the U.S. Government will be pursuing new methods of accreditation if the current institutions of higher ed don’t respond more significantly — here is yet another example of the conversation moving away from traditional higher ed.

I wonder…
How small/large is the window of time before traditional higher ed is moved into the “Have you driven a Ford lately?” mode…? 
It seems that it’s much harder to get customers to come back once they’ve lost their trust/patience/belief/support/etc. in an organization or institution.  As Ford has shown, it can be done, but my point is that there is danger in the status quo and broken business relationships can take a long time to heal — while opening up opportunities for others to step in (such as Toyota, Honda, and others in the case of the automotive industry).

Again, we see whether in higher ed, K-12, or in the corporate world, the key thing is to learn how to build one’s own learning ecosystem.

 

 

With thanks to Stephen Downes for mentioning the item below in his presentation here.

 

MyEducationPath-Feb2013

 

MyEducationPath2-Feb2013

 

MyEducationPathDSC-Feb2013

 

 

Other examples of the conversation moving away from traditional higher ed:

  • Educating the Future: The End of Mediocrity –by Rob Bencini
    Students facing uncertain future opportunities (but very certain debt loads) may increasingly turn away from private colleges and universities that offer little more than a diploma. Instead, they’ll seek more-affordable alternatives for higher education, both real and virtual.
  • The Half-Life of a College Education — from futuristspeaker.com by Thomas Frey
    Excerpt:
    6.) Expanding number of long tails courses – In much the same way “hit” television shows attract millions of viewers while niche TV shows are proliferating, far more niche courses will be developed as traditional college gatekeepers get circumvented.

 

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