The future of colleges and universities -- from the spring of 2010 by futurist Thomas Frey

From Spring 2010

From DSC:

If you are even remotely connected to higher education, then you *need* to read this one!


Most certainly, not everything that Thomas Frey says will take place…but I’ll bet you he’s right on a number of accounts. Whether he’s right or not, the potential scenarios he brings up ought to give us pause to reflect on ways to respond to these situations…on ways to spot and take advantage of the various opportunities that arise (which will only happen to those organizations who are alert and looking for them).


Illinois official has innovative ideas for higher education – Dolph C. Simons, Jr., Lawrence Journal-World

“Stanley Ikenberry, interim president of the University of Illinois, on how students, families and the university all could save money and, at the same time, maintain the quality and integrity of his institution. Ikenberry said a shorter college career, an “accelerated program” that could be in place by fall 2011, would raise revenue for the school while cutting tuition and letting students enter the work force sooner. The president said a combination of distance learning or online courses, placement tests for college credit, high school participation in some programs and, especially, use of summer school could shorten a student’s stay at one of the three campuses.”

From DSC:
I’m not sure what I think about all of the possibilities, but clearly, the environment is pressing us for change. The status quo is no longer an option.

The current funding crisis will transform Britain's universities by 2020.

Quotes below — with emphasis from DSC

Already more than one in three students studies part-time and one in six is from overseas.

There will be more mature students, more studying part-time, more living in their own or their parents’ homes, and many more studying online.”

There will be more tailor-made vocational courses, operated in partnership with individual companies and employers.

There will be more “pick-and-mix” degrees, with students accumulating course credits at different universities, even across different countries, and with gaps for employment in between.

Students will increasingly become “consumers” as we reach the tipping-point where their contribution to the cost of the degree is greater than that made by the government.

Private providers will take over an increasing share of the university market.

The all-round university will increasingly lose out to more specialised institutions.

Finally, universities will become more global.

 

Learning Styles and Tuition Dollars — from Joshua Kim; Joshua is quoted below:

Colleges and universities that invest in creating personalized learning opportunities (emphasis DSC) will gain significant advantages in the competitive market for students.

Some attributes that we will look for in selecting a college:

– A philosophy to play to the strengths of its learners as opposed to correcting their weaknesses.

– The delivery of course and learning materials in formats (and on platforms) that are flexible enough to match a range of learning styles.

– An emphasis on supporting learners in finding their passions and in transitioning to creators and leaders.

Some things that we will not consider in choosing where our tuition dollars go:

– The U.S. News & World Report rankings. Rankings are for the median student, not my student. Your school needs to be the best for my student, not for all students.

– The dorms, the grounds, the gym, etc. etc. We expect these amenities. They are not differentiators.

– The number of books in the library. Books are not scarce, and my kid can only read one at a time.

Tech-savvy ‘iGeneration’ kids multi-task, connect — from USAToday.com by Sharon Jayson

Move over, Millennials. You’re not the younger generation anymore.

For the past decade, you were the ones to watch. But now, as the eldest among you are fast approaching 30, there’s a new group just begging for some attention. They’re still kids, and although there’s a lot the experts don’t yet know about them, one thing they do agree on is that what kids use and expect from their world has changed rapidly.

And it’s all because of technology.

“It’s simply a part of their DNA,” says Dave Verhaagen, a child and adolescent psychologist in Charlotte. “It shapes everything about them.”

The difference is that these younger kids “don’t remember a time without the constant connectivity to the world that these technologies bring,” she says. “They’re growing up with expectations (emphasis DSC) of always being present in a social way — always being available to peers wherever you are.”

“The technology is the easiest way to see it, but it’s also a mind-set, and the mind-set goes with the little ‘i,’ which I’m taking to stand for ‘individualized,’ ” Rosen says. “Everything is customized and individualized to ‘me.’ (emphasis DSC) My music choices are customizable to ‘me.’ What I watch on TV any instant is customizable to ‘me.’ “

From DSC:
The following article got me to thinking of the future again…

Thousands to lose jobs as universities prepare to cope with cuts — from guardian.co.uk (original posting from Stephen Downes)
Post-graduates to replace professors | Staff poised to strike over proposals of cuts

I post this here because I believe that we are at the embryonic stages of some massive changes that will take place within the world of higher education. The timeframe for these changes, as always, is a bit uncertain. However, I would expect to see some of the following changes to occur (or continue to occur) yet this year:

  • Cost cutting
  • The cutting of programs
  • Laying off of staff and faculty
  • Not filling open positions
  • More outsourcing
  • The move towards using more cloud-based-computing models
  • The movement of students to lower-cost alternatives
  • Greater utilization of informal learning
  • The rise of online-exchange oriented offerings (i.e. the matching up of those who teach a subject and those who want to learn that subject)
  • The threat to traditional ways of doing things and to traditional organizations — including accreditation agencies — will cause people within those agencies to be open to thinking differently (though this one will take longer to materialize)
  • The continued growth of online learning — albeit at a greatly-reduced price
  • …and more.

This isn’t just about a recession. The Internet is changing the game on yet another industry — this time, it’s affecting those of us in the world of higher education. When the recession’s over, we won’t be going back to the way higher education was set up previous to the year 2010.

What did those us of in higher education learn from what happened to the music industry? What did we learn from what happened to the video distribution/entertainment business? To the journalism industry? To the brokerage business? To the travel and hospitality industries? To the bookstores of the world?

Along these lines…back at the end of 2008, I posted a vision entitled, The Forthcoming Walmart of Education. So, where are we on that vision? Well…so far we have:

  • Straighterline.com
  • A significant open courseware movement, including MIT Open Courseware, the Open Courseware Consortium, Connexions, Open Content Alliance, OpenLearn, Intute, Globe, Open Yale Courses, Open Education, The Internet Archive and many others
  • University of the People
  • YouTube.edu
  • iTunes U
  • Academic Earth
  • and more…

I realize that several of these items were in place before or during 2008…however, at that time, there was no dominant, inexpensive alternative. And there still isn’t one that has jumped into the lead (the University of Phoenix with their 150,000+ students doesn’t qualify, as their pricing is not yet nearly aggressive enough as what I’m predicting will occur).

Though we aren’t there yet, there has been significant change that has already taken place. So…if I were an administrator right now, I’d be asking myself the following key questions:

  • Can we reduce tuition and fees by at least 50%? If not, how can some of our offerings be delivered at half the price (or more)?
  • How are we going to differentiate ourselves?
  • How are we going to deliver value?
  • How are we going to keep from becoming a commodity?
  • Are we using teams to create and deliver our courses? If not, why not? What’s our plans for staying competitive if we don’t use teams?

Most likely, further massive changes are forthcoming.  So fasten your seatbelts and try to stay marketable!



The Future of Higher Education: Beyond the Campus — from iangardnergb.blogspot.com

“Lots and lots at the time being on the future of HE, especially in the UK due to the funding cuts, imminent election, etc. One of the latest reports is a joint one from JISC, SERF, EDUCAUSE and CAUDIT, showing many issues are not just affecting the UK.

Abstract:
Higher education’s purpose is to equip students for success in life—in the workplace, in communities, and in their personal lives. While this purpose may have remained constant for centuries, the world around colleges and universities is undergoing significant change. Higher education is under pressure to meet greater expectations, whether for student numbers, educational preparation, workforce needs, or economic development. Meanwhile, the resources available are likely to decline. New models, an intense focus on the student experience, and a drive for innovation and entrepreneurism will ensure that higher education continues to meet society’s needs. Information technology supports virtually every aspect of higher education, including finances, learning, research, security, and sustainability, and IT professionals need to understand the range of problems their institutions face so they apply IT where it brings greatest value. Creating this future will require collaboration across organizational and national boundaries, bringing together the collective intelligence of people from backgrounds including education, corporations, and government.

From DSC:
Many quotes jumped off of the pages of the report, but here’s one of them:

Higher education represents a complex, adaptive system that is influenced by larger societal trends and information technology. If higher education is adaptive, what will its future be?

Quote from “More on teaching with iPods: Preserving tradition and culture” — Atomic Learning

Technology and tradition are not mutually exclusive (emphasis DSC). In reality, the former can greatly augment the preservation of the latter. As we like to say at Atomic Learning, embracing technology empowers us. “

From DSC:
And I would add to that, technology is not anti-relational — these two things are not mutually exclusive either. (Consider Facebook, MySpace, NING,
and a myriad of technology-based means of communications.)

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