College choice & prudent consumers (infographic) — from the Higher Education Management Group by Keith Hampson

 

 

From ‘gainful employment’ to lower college costs — from The WashingtonPost.com by Matt Miller

Excerpt (extra emphasis by DSC):

But whatever happens as these new rules are implemented in next few years, for-profit colleges will never get out from under a cloud, nor make good on their potential social contribution, until they pass on to students the benefit of the lower educational cost structures they are creating. To date, they’ve been reluctant to do so, because, for public companies especially, it seems tantamount to ignoring the shareholder interest in maximizing profits.

But this is shortsighted. For one thing, it ensures a perennial political backlash, which can’t serve shareholders over time. And beyond this, as a business matter, it means there’s a huge opening for any number of “Wal-Marts of higher ed” to win a vast market of underserved or overindebted young Americans (or mid-career workers who seek training) who desperately need affordable, high-quality educational services. The strategy should be to lower costs, lower prices and “make it up on the volume.” The firms that do this and earn a reputation for quality will force the traditional college world to reexamine its own inefficient practices, to the lasting benefit of students and the governments that fund them.

 

From DSC:
Also see:

 

Is Higher Education Ready for “The Education Bubble”? — from CampusTechnology.com by Trent Batson

Excerpts:

American higher education–the jewel in the global crown of universal education, with nearly a quarter of the total number of higher education institutions in the world, and including graduate programs that are the envy of the world–is facing the prospect of being the next bubble to burst. Technology is both a culprit and a promising ally.

The spread of information technology, and its infusion into our culture, has opened the world to learning opportunities–raising expectations for college graduates and changing the terms of success.

Is American higher education ready to either prevent the bubble from bursting or to weather the storm when it does burst? And what is the bubble?

The bubble, as we can see by all the dimensions just described, is, in fact, a potential “perfect storm.”

But this effort must also result from a presidential-level decree: “The learning theory that fit so well in our culture and with the dominant technology pre-1995 (print-based and paper-based technologies), now is not working very well for any of us, so we have to change. Each of you on campus has sincerely and devotedly committed yourselves fully to learning, but now we know that our learning epistemology is less and less appropriate. This is not your fault; it is simply a time of incredible human growth; it is a time of rapid evolution in our culture; a time of re-shaping our economy. We must transform or become irrelevant.”

 

From DSC:
Good to see I have some company in these perspectives; thanks for the article Trent. Also see:

  • The Forthcoming Walmart of Education
  • The below graphics that I created a while back reflecting on whether there was a bubble building within higher ed (2/16/09) as well some of the elements of “The Perfect Storm in Higher Education” (9/10/10).
  • The point is we need a response to these trends — we don’t want to be broadsided.

 

The perfect storm in higher ed -- by Daniel S. Christian

Is higher ed the next bubble?

 

Daniel S. Christian: My concerns with just maintaining the status quo (from 2009).

From 5/21/09

Update on “Perspectives on the elephant of college pricing” — by Lloyd Armstrong, University Professor and Provost Emeritus at the University of Southern California

Excerpt/conclusion:

The situation from all perspectives is obviously greatly exacerbated by the current unusually bad economic times. Pressures to increase discounting have been enormous for many institutions, especially those whose selectivity is lower. Economic times eventually will get better, of course, but NACUBO warns that it may be some time before institutions see the year-to- year gains in net tuition revenue they experienced before the beginning of the economic downturn. In fact, there are increasing indications that there may not ever be a return to such gains for many institutions.  There are serious questions being raised by the general public regarding whether higher education produces a value equal to its cost. This issue will hit those institutions that are “non-elite” most strongly, and make it increasingly difficult for them to raise tuition at the historic rate.   It also may well be the case that the American public will be more cautious in taking on loans in the future, and thus will look much more carefully at the concept that a loan is really decreasing the net cost of education (as the current terminology implies). Should this happen, it could significantly raise pressure to raise grant aid, leading to higher discount rates.

All in all, the data clearly indicate that the current cost/price model of higher education is working less well with each passing year from each of the three perspectives. Is it time to start thinking of sustainable alternatives?

The story so far: What we know about the business of digital journalism — from Columbia Journalism School by Bill Grueskin, Ava Seave, & Lucas Graves

From DSC:
This type of report is relevant for many of the industries being disrupted by the Internet, including higher education. To me, the words “reinvent” and “innovate” came to my mind while reviewing this report.

Also see:

 

 

 

 

Number of the week: Class of 2011, most indebted ever — from The Wall Street Journal by Mark Whitehouse

Excerpt:

$22,900: Average student debt of newly minted college graduates

The Class of 2011 will graduate this spring from America’s colleges and universities with a dubious distinction: the most indebted ever.

Boosting productivity in US higher education — from McKinsey Quarterly by Cota, Jayaram, Laboissière

Excerpt:

The United States needs more college graduates. Opinions vary on exactly how many, but McKinsey estimates that the nation will need an additional one million each year by 2020 to sustain its economic health. That would mean increasing today’s annual total—2.5 million—by 40 percent.

To meet this goal, universities and colleges would have to increase their output of graduates by 3.5 percent a year over the next decade. That’s a daunting task for two reasons. First, it would cost an additional $52 billion a year, based on 2008 costs to produce a graduate. Yet many states, plagued by fiscal woes, have recently lowered spending on higher education, a trend that’s unlikely to be reversed. Second, to achieve this increase, colleges would need to enroll many more than 3.5 percent more freshmen each year, because today, on average, only 40 percent of students who enroll go on to graduate.

 

Higher education’s toughest test — from by Jon Bischke and Semil Shah

In the debate sparked by Peter Thiel’s “20 Under 20 Fellowship” (which pays bright students to drop out of college), one fact stands out: the cost of U.S. post-secondary education is spiraling upward, out of control. Thiel calls this a “bubble,” similar to the sub-prime mortgage crisis, where hopeful property owners over-leveraged themselves to lay claim to a coveted piece of the American dream: home ownership.

Today, however, the credentialing provided by universities is becoming decoupled from the knowledge and skills acquired by students. The cost of obtaining learning materials is falling, with OpenCourseWare resources from MIT and iTunes U leading the charge. Classes can be taken online on sites like Udemy and eduFire, either for free or a fraction of the cost to learn similar material at a university, and sites like Veri, which recently launched at TechStars NYC Demo Day, aims to organize and spread one’s accumulated knowledge.

The fresh cadavers from the shakeouts in the music and publishing industries should provide motivation to presidents, chancellors, and provosts to look seriously at this problem, as many of the same dynamics that disrupted those industries are now at play in higher education. As students around the world start preparing for their year-end exams, it will be interesting to see how seriously leaders of universities prepare for one of the toughest tests that they’ll ever face.

 

From DSC:
I have been trying to get these trends/warnings/messages across to others for years — more people are starting to raise the same red flags on some of these same topics as well.

There is great danger in the status quo these days. Don’t get me wrong — I’m a firm believer in education, especially liberal arts education. But the traditional model is simply not sustainable it continually shuts more people out of the system and/or puts such a burden on students’ backs as to significantly influence — if not downright limit — their future options and experiences.

But as the saying goes, “Change is optional — survival is not mandatory.”


Addendum:

 

 

From DSC:
Not that I’m on board with everything here…but the following excerpt from Rethinking colleges from the ground up — from the World Future Society by Thomas Frey — is worth reflecting upon; and so are some of the questions listed at the bottom of this posting. 

(NOTE: You may need to be a member to access this article in its entirety; emphasis DSC)

 

So What’s Changed
The obvious question to start with is simply, “What’s changed?”

Why is it that an education system that has produced some of the world’s top scientists, engineers, and business executive is no longer good enough to serve today’s young people?

The answers can be found in the following five areas:

  1. From information poor to information rich
  2. Fierce competition
  3. The cost to benefit ratio is changing
  4. New times require new intelligence
  5. Shift from individual intelligence to group intelligence

The following are but a few of the reasons why changing times demand different solutions…

Colleges are being pushed in a number of directions but the big dividing points will be oriented around in-person vs. online, and for the in-person side of the equation, doing the things in-person that cannot be done through online education.

 


Also see:

What does the “new normal” of shrunken classroom budgets, greater reliance on information technology and the ongoing science and math skills shortage mean for the future of education? Join fellow futurists this summer in Vancouver to solve these and other questions during our two-day WFS-exclusive Education Summit. This year’s speakers include FUTURIST magazine authors Maria H. Andersen, David Pearce Snyder, and Tom Lombardo among many others.

Sessions include:

  • Defining the “New Normal” for Education
  • Education as a Service
  • Where’s the “Learn This” Button?
  • Learning in Depth: A Simple Innovation That Can Transform Schooling
  • A New Education Vision: Reinventing School-to-Employment Systems for Knowledge-Based Global Economies
  • The New Tech Network
  • Jump-Start Your Career as a Foresight Educator
  • Reinventing Educational Activism by Creating Linkages: Technology, Content-Driven Collaboration, and Financial Literacy
  • A New Century: A New Instructional Paradigm
  • Educating the Wise Cyborg of the Future
  • Deconstructing the Education Monopoly in the United States
  • Futurists and the Future of Education

WorldFuture 2011 Education Summit: $295 for WFS members/$345 for nonmembers. Learn more and register here.

 

The newsonomics of oblivion — from the Nieman Journalism Lab by Ken Doctor
Excerpt:

The threat of oblivion should be a powerful motivator, and we now see — finally — after a decade of decline, its specter moving us away from incremental, “experimental” tests to a fundamental restructuring of the business of news.

From DSC:
(I don’t mean to be full of doom and gloom here. However, a healthy respect of the disruption being caused by technology is warranted here I believe.)

I couldn’t help but think of higher education as an industry when I reviewed this particular blog posting.  Those of us working within higher education need to be highly aware of how other industries are dealing with the disruptions being caused by the Internet and other technologies. Why? Because the disruption has already begun within higher education.

Cal State University to cut enrollment, faculty, staff and more — from The L.A. Times by Carla Rivera
Facing an 18% cut in state funding, Cal State plans to reduce enrollment by 10,000, cut $11 million from the chancellor’s office and shrink campus funding by $281 million. No tuition hikes are planned, chancellor says.

Also see:

Christensen on disruptive innovation in higher education — from Lloyd Armstrong, University Professor and Provost Emeritus at the University of Southern California

Although the absence of an upwardly scalable technology driver has rendered higher education impossible to disrupt in its past, we believe that online learning constitutes such a technology driver and will indeed be capable of disruptively carrying the business model of low-cost universities up-market.

State Higher Education Finance FY 2010 (USA)

Conclusion:

States and the nation as a whole face challenging higher education financing and policy decisions. The pattern during the past three decades includes cyclical downturns in per student funding resulting from economic recessions, followed by recovery and growth. State and local revenue for higher education per student has declined and then recovered, often exceeding previous levels.

The SHEF studies for 2006, 2007, and 2008 indicate a three-year increase in state and local support for public higher education relative to inflation and student demand, following a period of declining public investment in higher education between 2001 and 2005. The three-year recovery abruptly ended when, in 2008, the nation suffered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Past experience and current indicators suggest that state revenue will recover slowly in the next few years. Despite the success of ARRA funding in cushioning the recession’s impact, the continuing fiscal crisis beginning in 2008 clearly poses a severe threat to the strength of higher education in the United States.

Such recurring budgeting cycles can be challenging and discouraging. The resiliency of state support for higher education, however, suggests its importance to our future is widely recognized. But there is no question that the fiscal challenges facing the nation will require both creativity and commitment from policymakers and educators. The data and analysis of this and future SHEF reports are intended to help higher education leaders and state policymakers focus on how discrete, year-to-year decisions fit into broader patterns of change over time, and how each step contributes—or not—to meeting longer-term objectives.

© 2024 | Daniel Christian