Futures thinking for academic librarians: Higher education in 2025

Prepared by:
Dr. David J. Staley
Director of the Harvey Goldberg Center for Excellence in Teaching in the History Department of Ohio State University

Kara J. Malenfant
ACRL Scholarly Communications and Government Relations Specialist

June 2010

Executive Summary
For academic librarians seeking to demonstrate the value of their libraries to their parent institutions, it is important to understand not only the current climate. We must also know what will be valued in the future so that we can begin to take appropriate action now. This document presents 26 possible scenarios based on an implications assessment of current trends, which may have an impact on all types of academic and research libraries over the next 15 years. The scenarios represent themes relating to academic culture, demographics, distance education, funding, globalization, infrastructure/facilities, libraries, political climate, publishing industry, societal values, students/learning, and technology. They are organized in a “scenario space” visualization tool, reflecting the expert judgment of ACRL members as to their expectations and perceptions about the probability, impact, speed of change, and threat/opportunity potential of each scenario. Finally, the study draws out implications for academic libraries.

For scenarios which have been identified as high impact with a high probability of occurring, it is incumbent upon library directors and those who set strategic agendas for academic libraries to plan to act now upon these scenarios. This report reinforces the notion that academic libraries are part of a larger ecosystem, and librarians should be consistently scanning the environment to look for signs of the changes that may come. It includes an appendix with a suggested activity to engage library colleagues in stretching your imaginations and considering possible futures. This can build capacity to engage in strategic thinking and planning, supporting librarians in making better decisions now that can address a variety of possible futures.

The Next Generation of Digitally Enhanced Learning — from The Journal by Scott Aronowitz

At the recent Ed Tech Summit, a technology consultant took a distant look at the future of education, based on both widespread speculation and technologies currently on the market and in development

In his lecture at the Ed Tech Summit at the InfoComm 2010 conference in Las Vegas, Mark S. Valenti, founder and president of Pittsburgh-based technology consulting firm The Sextant Group, delved into the myriad of ways in which advancing technology will continue to enhance, improve, and expand education–both K-12 and post-secondary education–as well as the shifts in priorities and attitudes such advancements will likely cause.

In Valenti’s “big picture” view of the next stage of education, there will be several significant changes, some of which we are already witnessing, that will alter the entire landscape for “providers” of education and related services, e.g., colleges and universities, vocational and trade institutes, public and private K-12 schools, etc., as well as for teachers and students:

* The process will continue to become more technology-dependent;
* There will be increased demand for access, in terms of user capacity, frequency, transmission speed, and content capacity, leading to increased demand for bandwidth;
* Information will become increasingly media rich, which will also impact bandwidth demand; and
* The individual will increasingly become both a consumer and a producer of information, leading to shifts in the dynamic between educators and the educated.

Finally, such technology will lead to a rethinking of the architecture of learning spaces themselves. “Collaboration across time and space will drive facility design [in the coming years]. We’re seeing technologies like Skype become commonplace. We’re seeing major investments from companies like Cisco in things like TelePresence, which is a prime example of cross-collaboration.” Valenti said he believes that, in the long run, in addition to the changes in teaching and learning methods, the physical space that accommodates learning will also change. Classrooms driven by multimedia, virtual hands-on combinations of laboratories and lecture spaces, and the aforementioned virtual operating rooms are all examples of the digitally enhanced learning spaces on the horizon.

Universities at a Crossroads — InsideHigherEd.com

WASHINGTON – Given the influence of rapid globalization and the emergence of knowledge-based societies, the universities of the future will bear virtually no resemblance to those of today. Or so argued a group of American and Asian education leaders who gathered here Monday to speculate on how the sector may evolve to meet future challenges.

The academics on the panel, presented by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, seemed to agree that the universities of the future will have to become more entrepreneurial to meet the needs of young people with new learning styles and older people who may need continuing education throughout their life. Given this, most of the discussion among the panelists focused on how the current model of higher education should adapt.

William Pepicello, president of the University of Phoenix, the largest for-profit education provider in the United States, argued that “the next generation of students is expecting that higher education is going to be as accessible as the rest of the world,” which, he noted, is increasingly available at students’ fingertips via commercial devices that access the Internet. He noted that the universities of tomorrow should be able to adapt to their students and not vice versa, much as Google and Yahoo can customize Web searching to personal preferences.

“Is there any reason why higher education platforms shouldn’t be able to adapt to the people, to the students who come there for help?” Pepicello asked. “And in a variety of ways, not just in consumer ways but in learning style, for instance, and in preferences of learning materials?”

James J. Duderstadt, president emeritus of the University of Michigan and a member of former Education Secretary Margaret Spellings’ Commission on the Future of Higher Education, told educators in the audience that their universities would have “to consider entirely new paradigms” to survive and stay relevant in the future. He was particularly complimentary of the adaptability of the for-profit college sector.

Why scenario thinking (more than scenario planning) is critical for executives today — from Ross Dawson

The point is that scenario planning is a process that, done ineffectively, does not challenge or change assumptions or beliefs about what is likely to happen. Scenario thinking is an entirely different matter. It is a state of mind where very different futures are seen as plausible and possible.

One of the most valuable outcomes of an effective scenario planning process is that it fosters scenario thinking among the participating executives. A good set of scenarios can be very valuable in setting strategy. However if executives are stimulated by the process to think in terms of possibilities rather than likelihoods, that can be far more powerful (emphasis DSC).

Given the increasing pace of change in most industries, the timeframe within which forecasting is useful is ever-shrinking. Building effective scenario thinking capabilities is essential for being able to build robust strategies and in all leadership development.

indiana.wgu.edu
Also see:
Governor Daniels Announces New Online University for Indiana
Executive Order establishes charter for WGU Indiana, the state’s first competency-based university

Indianapolis — Governor Mitch Daniels today announced the establishment of WGU Indiana, http://indiana.wgu.edu, a new online, competency-based university aimed at expanding access to higher education for Hoosiers. Formed by a partnership between the state and Western Governors University, the nation’s only non-profit, competency-based university, WGU Indiana offers fully accredited bachelor’s and master’s degrees in business, teacher education, information technology, and health professions, including nursing.

Indiana Forms Branch of National Online University — from The Chronicle by Marc Parry

Indiana will create a new branch of a national online institution, Western Governors University, under a deal that state leaders announced on Friday.

“Today we mark the beginning of, in a real sense, Indiana’s eighth state university,” Governor Mitch Daniels said in a prepared statement.

The agreement gives a boost to Western Governors’ model of competency-based education, in which students advance by showing what they’ve learned, not how much time they’ve spent in class. Students can also fast-forward their degrees by testing out of stuff they’ve already mastered.

onlinecoursesplus.com

From DSC:
I don’t know anything about this site, nor how solid their courses are. What’s important to note here is the direction things seem to be going in. Also notice the power of the Internet to set up exchanges between buyers and sellers!


The Power of Online Exchanges

First newspapers, now universities: It’s transformation time — from WashingtonPost.com by Philip Auerswald (emphasis DSC)

All of this creates opportunities for a new set of educational leaders–the “edupunks” whose disruptive innovations are featured in an excellent new book by Anya Kamenetz titled DIY U. Online degree programs such as those offered by the University of Phoenix–which alone now enrolls as many students as the entirety of the Big Ten–represent only the first wave of competitive challenge to colleges.

That is, of course, until they wander over to the financial aid office. Because, as we all know (trend 2): There ain’t no money in the piggy bank. For all the blather about “saving for college,” the reality is that the average American family isn’t going to be able to put away a hundred thousand dollars for each child headed to college. This means that when tuition time comes, they’ll be borrowing. Only, guess what? That’s right (trend 3) the banks aren’t going to want to lend, because, as noted above, credit markets have tightened more-or-less permanently. And neither state governments–cue laugh track–nor the federal government is going to be able to cover the difference.

What all of this means for leadership in higher education is that while resistance is futile, obsolescence is far from assured. The coming transformation in higher education will be gradual, and it will be incomplete. Many of today’s elite institutions will not only survive, they will prosper. Other institutions that clearly define, measure, and communicate the value they bring to individual students–and not just to society as a whole–will prosper. As for those whose strategy is to repackage past glories as a vision for the future on forlorn trips to bankrupt legislatures, the road ahead will bear a greater resemblance to Grand Theft Auto than to The Paper Chase.

Future success in higher-ed will depend on agility, clear vision, and a willingness to deal with the world as it is–rather than as we would have it be. While learning is still in for today’s students, school’s out.

Philip E. Auerswald

Philip E. Auerswald is Associate Professor at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University, and associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He co-organized the GMU-APLU Presidents’ Symposium on the Future of Collegiate Education at the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities, held this month.


From Stephen Downes:

Is the Higher Education Bubble Going to Burst?There has been more and more discussion of the education bubble, especially in light of online learning. Alison Leithner links to an editorial by Glenn Reynolds in the Washington Examiner and summarizes, “Reynolds claims that, similar to many properties sold during the housing market bubble, the value of university education today is simply not worth the amount of money people currently are paying. Reynolds also proposes that consumers are starting to realize this.” Leithner herself is sceptical. “Èmployers will still need some way to filter out the exceptional candidates for their posted positions. They will just find a new criterion upon which to judge people. If the higher education bubble burst, it will surely be because a new bubble has started to form. Alison Leithner, Change.org, June 9, 2010 4:34 p.m..

Is YouTube bursting higher education’s bubble? Not so fast… — from Education Futures by John Moravec

..

From DSC:
This link provides my thoughts on where we’re heading.

Video: Future of Higher Education Conference at IE University

Shaping the higher education cloud

“Shaping the Higher Education Cloud,” an EDUCAUSE/NACUBO White Paper, was released [on 5/25/10] and includes an exploration of the shape a higher education cloud might take with recommendations for cloud action; opportunities and models for collaborative service offerings among colleges and universities; and an overview of the risk, security, and governance issues involved in implementing cloud services.

This white paper captures key findings from the EDUCAUSE/NACUBO Cloud Computing Workshop held in February 2010.

U of California resuscitates the Master Plan — from huffingtonpost.com by Anya Kamenetz

Yesterday the University of California made a groundbreaking announcement that has the potential to break the tuition cost crisis and finally deliver the crucial benefits of higher education to millions of Americans and to tens of millions who demand it and deserve it around the world. They are putting $5 to $6 million into a pilot project to create online versions of courses with an eye toward eventually creating completely online degree programs.

More than one in four US college students already take at least one online class. So why is this an important announcement?

Because a public university system is declaring that it will innovate its way out of recession, and even more importantly, that it will not cede the banner of innovation to the for-profit sector that is encroaching more and more on public higher education’s territory (emphasis DSC).

And it’s not just any public university system that’s doing this, but the largest public university system in the country and the global template for mass higher education for over fifty years. Clark Kerr’s Master Plan in 1960 introduced the idea that higher education would be a massive, state-run, open and democratic, publicly accessible resource for all.

Also see:

U. of California Considers Online Classes, or Even Degrees — from The Chronicle of Higher Education by Josh Keller and Marc Parry
Proposal for virtual courses challenges beliefs about what an elite university is—and isn’t

(Oakland, Calif.) Online education is booming, but not at elite universities—at least not when it comes to courses for credit.

Leaders at the University of California want to break that mold. This fall they hope to put $5-million to $6-million into a pilot project that could clear the way for the system to offer online undergraduate degrees and push distance learning further into the mainstream.

The vision is UC’s most ambitious—and controversial—effort to reshape itself after cuts in public financial support have left the esteemed system in crisis (emphasis DSC).

Supporters of the plan believe online degrees will make money, expand the number of California students who can enroll, and re-establish the system’s reputation as an innovator.

“Somebody is going to figure out how to deliver online education for credit and for degrees in the quality sector—i.e., in the elite sector,” said Christopher Edley Jr., dean at Berkeley’s law school and the plan’s most prominent advocate. “I think it ought to be us—not MIT, not Columbia, not Caltech, certainly not Stanford.”

16th Annual Sloan-C International Conference on Online Learning
November 3-5, 2010 | The Caribe Royale Hotel and Convention Center
The Power of Online Learning: Stimulating New Possibilities

  

Keynote Address

Peter Smith

Peter Smith, Ed.D.

Colleges for the 21st Century: the New Ecology of Learning
Emerging information technology and Web 2.0 have permanently changed the possibilities and potential of higher education. With the decline of content as the critical determinant of quality, there are three over-arching quality indicators that support “merit for the many”: personalization, customization, and mobility.

Dr. Peter Smith will address these quality indicators in his keynote address. In the talent-friendly College for the 21st Century (C21C), he argues, services will be organized around the needs of the learner, not the habits of the institution (emphasis DSC). Sharing common characteristics, C21Cs will tap into a new ecology of learning that supports personalized and customized learning around the world. Their purposes will include recognizing, creating and then validating merit in each learner and making it portable.

Technology and tomorrow's university

From DSC:
Now we need to figure out what all of this means for us…operationally speaking.

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