Why scenario thinking (more than scenario planning) is critical for executives today — from Ross Dawson
The point is that scenario planning is a process that, done ineffectively, does not challenge or change assumptions or beliefs about what is likely to happen. Scenario thinking is an entirely different matter. It is a state of mind where very different futures are seen as plausible and possible.
One of the most valuable outcomes of an effective scenario planning process is that it fosters scenario thinking among the participating executives. A good set of scenarios can be very valuable in setting strategy. However if executives are stimulated by the process to think in terms of possibilities rather than likelihoods, that can be far more powerful (emphasis DSC).
Given the increasing pace of change in most industries, the timeframe within which forecasting is useful is ever-shrinking. Building effective scenario thinking capabilities is essential for being able to build robust strategies and in all leadership development.