surviving

The jobs that AI can’t replace — from bbc.com by Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee
At the heart of capitalism is the concept of creative destruction. And this phenomenon is turbocharged by technological progress. Innovations from the cotton gin to electricity to the computer have created dramatic changes in the way that we work and the jobs that are available.

Excerpt:

Current advances in robots and other digital technologies are stirring up anxiety among workers and in the media. There is a great deal of fear, for example, that robots will not only destroy existing jobs, but also be better at most or all of the tasks required in the future.

Our research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has shown that that’s at best a half-truth. While it is true that robots are getting very good at a whole bunch of jobs and tasks, there are still many categories in which humans perform better.

Get ready for ‘The Economy Of Things’ — from forbes.com by Veena Pureswaran

Excerpt:

The IoT is not just about smart homes that light up when you arrive or washing machines that text you when the cycle is done. The IoT will turn physical assets into participants in real-time global digital markets. As the Internet of Things continues to turn physical assets into participants in new real-time, digital marketplaces, it’s creating what we describe as a new “Economy of Things.”

These types of assets will become as easily indexed, searched and traded as any online commodity. In fact, such digital marketplaces represent huge economic opportunities for growth and advancement.

Who’s the boss? Hitachi looks to promote artificial intelligence — from blogs.wsj.com by Jun Hongo; with thanks to Norma Owen for this resource

Excerpt:

Hitachi Ltd. is looking to promote artificial intelligence to management.

The Japanese electronics maker said it has developed a new artificial intelligence program that will enable robots to deliver instructions to employees based on analyses of big data and the workers’ routines.

“Work efficiency improved by 8% in warehouses with the new artificial intelligence program, compared to those without them,” a Hitachi spokeswoman said. “The program can examine an extremely large amount of data to provide the most efficient instruction, which is impossible for human managers to handle.”

Hitachi last month unveiled a fast-moving two-armed robot which it says may replace humans in performing basic functions like retrieving items in warehouses.

Tomorrow’s workers want mobile, but are employers ready? — from domo.com
70 percent of future workforce expect a bring-your-own-device culture; value technology perks nearly five times more than a stocked kitchen

Excerpt:

The study, which polled more than 2,000 college students, confirmed what many have assumed: that millennials are a mobile-first generation. Not surprisingly, the survey confirms that millennials spend most of their time accessing the Internet via a mobile device, 46 percent via a mobile phone and 43 percent on a tablet or laptop. Additionally, the report uncovers how much time millennials spend on various mobile activities. More than 97 percent use their phones to send or receive text messages, 96 percent use them to access the Internet, and 68 percent turn to a mobile device to stream music and send or receive pictures.

The findings also affirm how critical it is for companies to adjust to the ever-changing mobile-centric business world in order to attract top talent, which will increasingly be comprised of the millennial generation.

‘Transformer in chief’: The new chief digital officer — from mckinsey.com by Tuck Rickards, Kate Smaje, and Vik Sohoni
The CDO role is changing dramatically. Here are the skills today’s world demands.

Excerpt:

In the alphabet soup that is today’s crowded C-suite, few roles attract as much attention as that of the chief digital officer, or CDO. While the position isn’t exactly new, what’s required of the average CDO is. Gone are the days of being responsible for introducing basic digital capabilities and perhaps piloting a handful of initiatives. The CDO is now a “transformer in chief,” charged with coordinating and managing comprehensive changes that address everything from updating how a company works to building out entirely new businesses. And he or she must make progress quickly.

According to social forecasts in the U.S., U.K. and Australia, the point at which our labor market has more freelancers than full-time employees is between 5 to 10 years away. The growing automation of knowledge work means that, globally, we are expected to lose around 2 billion jobs by 2030. Some of that loss will be softened by new jobs created, but they’re going to be of the low-paid, temporary, variety. Today’s university graduates are facing what has been termed a “high skills/low income” future. The recent rapid growth in “knowledge process outsourcing” — the breaking up of salaried jobs into bid-for tasks, through websites like Elance.com and Freelancer. com — may well be transforming economies of developing countries like India, but it is causing futurists in the west to predict “the end of job.”

— What the Future Economy Means for How Kids Learn Today

The unlikely cities that will power the U.S. economy — from bloomberg.com

Excerpt:

Huntsville is one of a growing number of smaller U.S. cities, far from Silicon Valley, that are seeking to replace dwindling factory jobs by reinventing themselves as tech centers. Across the Midwest, Northeast, and South, mayors and governors are competing to attract tech companies and workers.

How freelancers are fighting for their labor rights — from fastcompany.com by Dillon Baker
In the absence of unions, creative freelancers are finding new ways to work collectively.

Excerpt:

“On average, our members are owed over $10,000 in unpaid invoices and spend 36 hours tracking down each missing payment,” says Freelancers Union founder and labor lawyer Sara Horowitz. She explains that nearly half (44%) of their members report issues in getting paid.

But getting paid on time is just one of the hurdles that the growing independent workforce faces.

For example, the Internet has lowered the bar to entry for professional writing and created more opportunities than ever, which on one hand is good news for entry-level writers, but shrunken profits have also hollowed out freelance rates at many publications.

4 ways to prepare for the workplace of the future — from fastcompany.com by Erin Palmer
Millennials face a much more volatile workplace than ever. Here are four ways to adapt.

Excerpt:

The workplace of the future will be a world of contradictions—which the next generations that enter it will need to master.

Charting a career path in a mercurial workforce means staying focused and adaptive in equal measure. That’s something millennials and their younger generation Z counterparts will need to be able to do more successfully than their elders ever had to.

For now, though, the learning curve still looks steep. A recent study by the online work company Upwork found that despite the millions of millennials looking for work, 53% of hiring managers said that they struggle to find and retain millennial employees.

Today’s leaders have gotten to where they are by adapting to what’s now and what’s next, not blindly clinging to one specific path.

Addendum on 9/15/15:

APIs Are The New FTEs — from techcrunch.comby Gaurav Jain
Excerpt:
A decade ago, a VP of engineering at a startup might have evaluated the resumes of five solid front-end engineers. Five years ago that VP would have looked at GitHub profiles. Today, they are just as likely to evaluate a front-end framework like Ionic, Meteor or Aurelia and build it themselves.

It’s not just front-end options. We’ve seen a massive proliferation in frameworks, libraries and other tools that allow a single talented engineer to do the work of a team.

Companies and products like Heroku, Celery, RabbitMQ, Mandrill, Fastly, Chartio, Chargebee, Shipwire, Docker, Codeship, Rainforest QA, Replicated and Chartbeat have changed the nature of tech development. These are just a small subset of services that replace the work of individuals or entire teams.

WordPress Ate Webmasters
This trend has pros and cons. It will make life harder for those with only mid-tier technical knowledge. Look at what WordPress has done to “webmasters.” The blogging platform turned CMS has colonized the web, and accounts for ~23 percent of Internet traffic.

The Free Two-Year College Movement — A Special/Mini Feature from evoLLLution.com (where the LLL stands for lifelong learning)

Excerpt:

Given the importance of postsecondary credentials to succeeding in today’s labor market, access to and completion of two- and four-year degrees has become a high priority for higher education leaders, government officials and employers. In 2014, Tennessee launched the Tennessee Promise, which granted Tennesseans tuition-free access to two-year colleges in the state. Oregon, in 2015, passed a similar piece of legislation and President Obama made America’s College Promise—a national roll-out of this style of program—a hallmark of his State of the Union address.

While the program goes to great lengths to create unprecedented levels of access to higher education, the focus must turn to how colleges will manage life in this new reality and how the higher education marketplace will have to shift to adjust to this new level of access. This Feature focuses on those elements of the free two-year college movement.

From DSC:
From the original Kalamazoo Promise (which was generously/graciously put forth by a group of anonymous donors), many such “promise” programs have been developed — affecting programs all the way up to President Obama’s development of America’s College Promise.

Colleges and universities would be wise to keep this potential trend on their radars, while preparing plans for what they would do if this trend picks up steam.

White House: Innovation in Higher Education — from elearnspace.org by George Siemens

Excerpt from George’s posting (emphasis DSC):

A few weeks ago, I received an invitation to the White House. The invitation was somewhat cryptic, but basically stated that the focus on the meeting was on quality and innovation.
…
2. Higher education generally has no clue about what’s brewing in the marketplace as a whole. The change pressures that exist now are not ones that the existing higher education model can ignore. The trends – competency-based learning, unbundling, startups & capital inflow, new pedagogical models, technology, etc – will change higher education dramatically.

3. No one knows what HE is becoming. Forget the think tanks and the consultants and the keynote speakers. No one knows how these trends will track or what the university will look like in the future. This unknowability stems from HE being a complex systems with many interacting elements. We can’t yet see how these will connect and inter-relate going forward. The best strategy in a time of uncertainty is not to seek or force the way forward, but to enter a cycle of experimentation. The Cynefin Framework provides the best guidance that I’ve seen on how to function in our current context.
…
7. Expect a future of far greater corporate involvement in HE. VC funds are flowing aggressively and these funders are also targeting policy change at local, state, and national levels. We aren’t used to this level of lobbying and faculty is unprepared to respond to this. Expect it. Your next faculty meeting will involve a new student success system, a personalized learning system, an analytics system, a new integrated bootcamp model, new competency software, new cloud-based computing systems, and so on. Expect it. It’s coming.

8. Expect M & A activities in higher education. I fully anticipate some combination of partnering with companies like General Assembly, creation of in-house bootcamps, or outright acquisitions by innovative universities.

Higher Education is moving from a 4 year relationship to students to a 40 year relationship.

From DSC:

[First of all, if you read this George, thanks for sharing your experiences, reflections, and recommendations from your recent trip to the White House. I/we appreciate it.]

I can’t agree with — and emphasize — George’s second point (above) strongly enough. Too often, I think we have our heads and eyes pointed downward, busy in our work; we fail to look up and see what’s happening all around us. We neglect to see the trends that are occurring and that will likely have an impact on us. If we were doing this, as we should be doing, several of our priorities would instantly change and there would be a much stronger sense of urgency in identifying some new directions/strategic initiatives/experiments within institutions of traditional higher education.

I don’t see our institutions competing with our typical/normal peer groups of the past. More and more, I think that we are competing with the new models, startups, and alternatives to traditional higher education. Yes, traditional institutions of higher education can respond and change — some have been doing so already. But how many of our institutions within the overall learning ecosystems are not experimenting? How many of our institutions have their heads buried in the sand, waiting for the good old days to return? Those days are not going to return. They’re gone. That ride is over. We need to wake up and adapt before the alternatives gain momentum (perhaps even borrowing some strategies from the alternatives, hmm?).

This is why I’m big on experimentation and the implementation of TrimTab Groups within higher education.

Finally, you may not like the word “disruption” and you may think it’s overused. But I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet.

As George warns in his posting, there are dramatic changes to higher education coming down the pike. George is not one to hype things up — he is a level-headed deep thinker. I’d suggest that we listen to what he’s saying to us via his experiences and reflections from participating in his recent meetings/conversations held at the White House.

RealEstate-HigherEd-DanielSChristian11-1-13

TheTrimtabInHigherEducation-DanielChristian

What might our learning ecosystems look like by 2025? [Christian]

On 07/31/2015, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, active learning, adult learning, analytics, Apple, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, Augmented Reality (AR), blended learning, business side of he, career development, changing business models, collaboration, colleges, communities of practice, community colleges, competency-based learning/education, content development, aggregation, repositories, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, digital learning, digital storytelling, disruption, distance education, education, education technology, elearning, emerging technologies, engagement / engaging students, expectations, experimentation, formal learning, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, Google, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), IBM, ideas, informal learning, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, K-12 related, learner profiles, learning, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, learning hubs & pods & microschooling, liberal arts, lifelong learning, marketplaces, mobile learning, more voice more choice more control, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, online learning, online media, online tutoring, pace of change, participation, personalized/customized learning, platforms, professional development, reinvent, second screen apps, smart/connected TV, social learning / networks, staying relevant, streams of content, student-related, surviving, technologies for your home, technology (general), telepresence, television, training / L&D, transmedia, trends, universities, user experience (UX), using teams, videoconferencing, virtual field trips, virtual K-12 schools, Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, virtual tutoring, vision/possibilities, web-based collaboration, workplace, by Daniel Christian

This posting can also be seen out at evoLLLution.com (where LLL stands for lifelong learning):

From DSC:
What might our learning ecosystems look like by 2025?

In the future, learning “channels” will offer more choice, more control. They will be far more sophisticated than what we have today.

That said, what the most important aspects of online course design end up being 10 years from now depends upon what types of “channels” I think there will be and what might be offered via those channels. By channels, I mean forms, methods, and avenues of learning that a person could pursue and use. In 2015, some example channels might be:

Attending a community college, a college or a university to obtain a degree
Obtaining informal learning during an internship
Using social media such as Twitter or LinkedIn
Reading blogs, books, periodicals, etc.

In 2025, there will likely be new and powerful channels for learning that will be enabled by innovative forms of communications along with new software, hardware, technologies, and other advancements. For examples, one could easily imagine:

That the trajectory of deep learning and artificial intelligence will continue, opening up new methods of how we might learn in the future
That augmented and virtual reality will allow for mobile learning to the Nth degree
That the trend of Competency Based Education (CBE) and microcredentials may be catapulted into the mainstream via the use of big data-related affordances

Due to time and space limitations, I’ll focus here on the more formal learning channels that will likely be available online in 2025. In that environment, I think we’ll continue to see different needs and demands – thus we’ll still need a menu of options. However, the learning menu of 2025 will be more personalized, powerful, responsive, sophisticated, flexible, granular, modularized, and mobile.

Highly responsive, career-focused track

One part of the menu of options will focus on addressing the demand for more career-focused information and learning that is available online (24×7). Even in 2015, with the U.S. government saying that 40% of today’s workers now have ‘contingent’ jobs and others saying that percentage will continue climbing to 50% or more, people will be forced to learn quickly in order to stay marketable. Also, the 1/2 lives of information may not last very long, especially if we continue on our current trajectory of exponential change (vs. linear change).

However, keeping up with that pace of change is currently proving to be out of reach for most institutions of higher education, especially given the current state of accreditation and governance structures throughout higher education as well as how our current teaching and learning environment is set up (i.e., the use of credit hours, 4 year degrees, etc.). By 2025, accreditation will have been forced to change to allow for alternative forms of learning and for methods of obtaining credentials. Organizations that offer channels with a more vocational bent to them will need to be extremely responsive, as they attempt to offer up-to-date, highly-relevant information that will immediately help people be more employable and marketable. Being nimble will be the name of the game in this arena. Streams of content will be especially important here. There may not be enough time to merit creating formal, sophisticated courses on many career-focused topics.

With streams of content, the key value provided by institutions will be to curate the most relevant, effective, reliable, up-to-date content…so one doesn’t have to drink from the Internet’s firehose of information. Such streams of content will also offer constant potential, game-changing scenarios and will provide a pulse check on a variety of trends that could affect an industry. Social-based learning will be key here, as learners contribute to each other’s learning. Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) will need to be knowledgeable facilitators of learning; but given the pace of change, true experts will be rare indeed.

Microcredentials, nanodegrees, competency-based education, and learning from one’s living room will be standard channels in 2025. Each person may have a web-based learner profile by then and the use of big data will keep that profile up-to-date regarding what any given individual has been learning about and what skills they have mastered.

For example, even currently in 2015, a company called StackUp creates their StackUp Report to add to one’s resume or grades, asserting that their services can give “employers and schools new metrics to evaluate your passion, interests, and intellectual curiosity.” Stackup captures, categorizes, and scores everything you read and study online. So they can track your engagement on a given website, for example, and then score the time spent doing so. This type of information can then provide insights into the time you spend learning.

Project teams and employers could create digital playlists that prospective employees or contractors will have to advance through; and such teams and employers will be watching to see how the learners perform in proving their competencies.

However, not all learning will be in the fast lane and many people won’t want all of their learning to be constantly in the high gears. In fact, the same learner could be pursuing avenues in multiple tracks, traveling through their learning-related journeys at multiple speeds.

The more traditional liberal arts track

To address these varied learning preferences, another part of the menu will focus on channels that don’t need to change as frequently. The focus here won’t be on quickly-moving streams of content, but the course designers in this track can take a bit more time to offer far more sophisticated options and activities that people will enjoy going through.

Along these lines, some areas of the liberal arts* will fit in nicely here.

*Speaking of the liberal arts, a brief but important tangent needs to be addressed, for strategic purposes. While the following statement will likely be highly controversial, I’m going to say it anyway. Online learning could be the very thing that saves the liberal arts.

Why do I say this? Because as the price of higher education continues to increase, the dynamics and expectations of learners continue to change. As the prices continue to increase, so do peoples’ expectations and perspectives. So it may turn out that people are willing to pay a dollar range that ends up being a fraction of today’s prices. But such greatly reduced prices won’t likely be available in face-to-face environments, as offering these types of learning environment is expensive. However, such discounted prices can and could be offered via online-based environments. So, much to the chagrin of many in academia, online learning could be the very thing that provides the type of learning, growth, and some of the experiences that liberal arts programs have been about for centuries. Online learning can offer a lifelong supply of the liberal arts.

But I digress…
By 2025, a Subject Matter Expert (SME) will be able to offer excellent, engaging courses chocked full of the use of:

Engaging story/narrative
Powerful collaboration and communication tools
Sophisticated tracking and reporting
Personalized learning, tech-enabled scaffolding, and digital learning playlists
Game elements or even, in some cases, multiplayer games
Highly interactive digital videos with built-in learning activities
Transmedia-based outlets and channels
Mobile-based learning using AR, VR, real-world assignments, objects, and events
…and more.

However, such courses won’t be able to be created by one person. Their sophistication will require a team of specialists – and likely a list of vendors, algorithms, and/or open source-based tools – to design and deliver this type of learning track.

Final reflections

The marketplaces involving education-related content and technologies will likely look different. There could be marketplaces for algorithms as well as for very granular learning modules. In fact, it could be that modularization will be huge by 2025, allowing digital learning playlists to be built by an SME, a Provost, and/or a Dean (in addition to the aforementioned employer or project team). Any assistance that may be required by a learner will be provided either via technology (likely via an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled resource) and/or via a SME.

We will likely either have moved away from using Learning Management Systems (LMSs) or those LMSs will allow for access to far larger, integrated learning ecosystems.

Functionality wise, collaboration tools will still be important, but they might be mind-blowing to us living in 2015. For example, holographic-based communications could easily be commonplace by 2025. Where tools like IBM’s Watson, Microsoft’s Cortana, Google’s Deepmind, and Apple’s Siri end up in our future learning ecosystems is hard to tell, but will likely be there. New forms of Human Computer Interaction (HCI) such as Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) will likely be mainstream by 2025.

While the exact menu of learning options is unclear, what is clear is that change is here today and will likely be here tomorrow. Those willing to experiment, to adapt, and to change have a far greater likelihood of surviving and thriving in our future learning ecosystems.

Are these some of the phenomenon that will sink higher education if we don’t address them? [Christian]

On 07/16/2015, in business, business side of he, change, changing business models, colleges, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, experimentation, higher education, leadership, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, surviving, universities, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
The phenomenon I’m thinking about are:

We in higher education are so peer-oriented that we don’t lead. That is, if our peers would do X, then we could do X. But if they aren’t doing it, we can’t or shouldn’t do it either. As Barnds says in his article below, “We continue to play a game of chicken as we wait for a so-called peer to do what we need to do.”
We are so peer-oriented that we don’t see that if we don’t lead and care far less about what our peers are doing, we risk being in a situation where we’re simply shifting chairs around, and doing so aboard the Titanic.
Why do I say Titanic? Because if we don’t address the growing chasm between what the corporate world wants/expects and what learners/families expect, we risk creating a void that WILL BE filled by another completely new system or systems. There WILL BE disruption if we don’t address the gaps. People will find other routes.
Folks in leadership positions within higher education have no choice but to deal with risk. If you don’t do anything, you are courting an enormous amount of risk. You are running a very dangerous experiment and your institution will likely be a shadow of what it once was (if it’s even able to remain open at all in the future). But if you change something — such as lowering the price of obtaining a degree — you also face risk. So risk comes with the job; there’s no escaping it. But just don’t make the mistake of thinking there’s no risk in pursuing the status quo.

The Best Pricing Model: Transparency — from insidehighered.com by W. Kent Barnds

Excerpts:

The current funding model for higher education is broken and we can only blame ourselves for creating a norm of bargain basement pricing for those families in the know, opaque business models and unexplained annual increases based more on competitors’ current price tag rather than our actual campus needs. We continue to play a game of chicken as we wait for a so-called peer to do what we need to do.
…
There are significant risks involved in changing how we discuss pricing, cost and value. Private colleges, as tuition-dependent institutions, are hesitant to try something new, especially if all of our peers stick with the currently murky language and approaches to cost and price.
…
As an industry, we need to work at getting it right for our students, which includes lowering actual costs for students and maintaining sufficient revenue to deliver on our mission.
…
Further, colleges need to clearly describe their business model to their campus constituents, students and parents of current students and delineate how the annual operation is funded. Finally, leaders need to acknowledge that percentage increases in tuition costs cannot continue in perpetuity. At some point we will price ourselves out of the market and into bankruptcy.
…
Seldom is there a clear statement that all students will pay at least $XXXX less to attend the next year. I realize this is pretty tricky — saying that the education offered is less expensive than the previous year — but this is exactly what’s missing and why many of the efforts so far seem to miss the mark.

What Learners Really Want — from clomedia.com by Todd Tauber
Listen to your learners: They want speed, diversity and adaptability in internal development programs.

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Everyone knows most learning happens beyond the classroom walls and outside learning management systems. But new research shows just how much — and the data are startling.

In the past year, learning technology company Degreed conducted two separate surveys that show workers spend four to five times more time on self-directed learning than on internal or external learning offerings. They invest more than 14 hours a month, on average, learning on their own but just two to three hours on employer-provided learning.

Those numbers should inform how and why development needs to evolve — urgently.
…
Learners want easier and faster access to answers. Degreed found almost 70 percent of workers say the first thing they do when they need to learn something for their jobs is Google it, then read or watch what they find. About 42 percent look for a live or online course, but they do it on their own. Fewer than 12 percent turn to their learning organization first.

Learning and development people do pretty much the same thing. They are “Googling it” too, and not just because it’s expedient. By a 3.5 to 1 margin, people believe self-directed learning is more effective in helping them succeed at work than taking part in company sponsored learning. These are mature adults. They have a good idea what they need.
…
Learners want to leverage the whole learning ecosystem. Informal learning initiatives should be valued because workers believe as much as 60 percent of the knowledge and skills they use on the job comes from informal learning.

From DSC:
I agree with Todd that this is where learning ecosystems come in. Employees are trying to use a variety of tools and methods to tap into streams of up-do-date content.

To me, the charter of those involved with corporate training/development should be to help employees learn about the current set of tools available to them and how to use such tools. Then do the necessary research to give employees a place to begin using those tools — such as whom should a particular group of employees should follow on Twitter or Scoop.It, which websites/blogs are especially well done and applicable to their particular positions and area of expertise, etc.

The pace of change has changed and at times, it’s moving too fast to create formal learning materials. We need to tap into streams of content. Perhaps those in corporate U’s could even be helping to curate and create the most beneficial streams of content for their employees in key strategic areas — and doing so using small, bite-sized chunks. They could recommend — and to some degree even provide — the platforms employees could use for self-directed learning. This self-directed learning wouldn’t be all alone though — each employee would be building and interacting with folks within their own Personal Learning Network (PLN); each person’s learning ecosystem would likely look different from others’ learning ecosystems.

Also relevant/see:

Heutagogy Community of Practice

For the employment application for future jobs: Professional hoop jumpers need not apply!

Shocker: 40% of workers now have ‘contingent’ jobs, says U.S. Government — from forbes.com by Elaine Pofeldt

Excerpt:

Tucked away in the pages of a new report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office is a startling statistic: 40.4% of the U.S. workforce is now made up of contingent workers—that is, people who don’t have what we traditionally consider secure jobs.

There is currently a lot of debate about how contingent workers should be defined. To arrive at the 40.4 %, which the workforce reached in 2010, the report counts the following types of workers as having the alternative work arrangements considered contingent. (The government did some rounding to arrive at its final number, so the numbers below add up to 40.2%).

Agency temps: (1.3%)
On-call workers (people called to work when needed): (3.5%)
Contract company workers (3.0%)
Independent contractors who provide a product or service and find their own customers (12.9%)
Self-employed workers such as shop and restaurant owners, etc. (3.3%)
Standard part-time workers (16.2%).

In contrast, in 2005, 30.6% of workers were contingent. The biggest growth has been among people with part time jobs. They made up just 11.9% of the labor force in 2005. That means there was a 36% increase in just five years.

In the future, employees won’t exist — from techcrunch.com by Tad Milbourn

Excerpt:

Contract work is becoming the new normal. Consider Uber: The ride-sharing startup has 160,000 contractors, but just 2,000 employees. That’s an astonishing ratio of 80 to 1. And when it comes to a focus on contract labor, Uber isn’t alone. Handy, Eaze and Luxe are just a few of the latest entrants into the “1099 Economy.”

Though they get the most attention, it’s not just on-demand companies that employ significant contract workforces. Microsoft has nearly two-thirds as many contractors as full-time employees. Even the simplest business structures, sole proprietorships, have increased their use of contract workers nearly two-fold since 2003.

The unsung heroes of the on-demand economy — from medium.com by Alex Chriss
We need to rethink the notion of entrepreneurship in the on-demand economy and build the tools and infrastructure to support the growing self-employed workforce.

Excerpt:

Enabled by the ubiquitous connectivity and power of smartphones, entrepreneurs are opening shops on Etsy, working as virtual assistants through oDesk, tackling neighborhood jobs on TaskRabbit, or driving on demand with Uber.

This new economy isn’t limited to low-paying gigs either. There are highly skilled professionals with advanced degrees from top 10 schools opting to work for themselves instead of a big firm. Consider the MBAs earning $100-$150 an hour through online consulting firm HourlyNerd or the lawyers making more than that on UpCounsel.

The Handy housecleaner and the UpCounsel attorney share a common characteristic: They’re a business of one.
…
This new wave of entrepreneurs — the self-employed workforce — is accelerating a broad trend we’ve been watching closely for nearly 10 years and started documenting in the year 2007 B.U. –before Uber.

They are part of the massive growth in the number of independent professionals. Full-time jobs with their corporate grab bag of benefits are becoming scarcer by the day. In the near future, working full time for a single company that offers little flexibility or work-life balance will become as outdated as the notion of staying with one company for your entire working life.

New survey: 40% of unemployed have “given up” — from prweb.com
Express Employment Professionals released the results [on May 20th, 2015] of its second annual in-depth poll, “The State of the Unemployed,” revealing that 40 percent of unemployed Americans agree to some extent that they have completely given up looking for work.

Excerpt:

Express Employment Professionals released the results [on May 20th, 2015] of its second annual in-depth poll, “The State of the Unemployed,” revealing that 40 percent of unemployed Americans agree to some extent that they have completely given up looking for work.

That figure, though high, represents a slight improvement from 2014, when 47 percent said they had given up.

The survey of 1,553 jobless Americans age 18 and older was conducted online by Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment Professionals between April 7 and 29, 2015, and offers a rare look at the background and attitudes of the unemployed, their approach to the job hunt, who they blame for their current situation, and how they are holding up through tough times.

New self-learning systems will reduce reliance on humans during ramp-up — from wtvox.com by Aidan Russell

Excerpt:

Robots are cracking eggs and making ice cream sundaes. These aren’t just party tricks. The way robots learn to do complex tasks is changing and that has profound implications for the future of manufacturing.

The egg-cracking robot comes courtesy of researchers at the University of Maryland and NICTA, an information and computer technology research centre in Australia. Their robotic system learns processes by watching YouTube videos.
…
It’s not difficult to see how systems like this might be utilised to improve automated manufacturing or bring new automation systems to areas of production that haven’t seen much automation yet. An investment in a single robotic system capable of learning a variety of tasks without specialised programming would be attractive to small manufacturers that do short production runs, for example.

A bot that can learn from watching other people could also fine tune its own actions through trial and error, essentially learning from its mistakes. That’s what researchers at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) in Finland had in mind when they developed a self-adjusting welding system.

Will humans go the way of horses? — from foreignaffairs.com by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
Labor in the Second Machine Age

Our mental advantages might be even greater than our physical ones. While we’re clearly now inferior to computers at arithmetic and are getting outpaced in some types of pattern recognition—as evidenced by the triumph of Watson, an artificial-intelligence system created by IBM, over human Jeopardy! champions in 2011—we still have vastly better common sense. We’re also able to formulate goals and then work out how to achieve them. And although there are impressive examples of digital creativity and innovation, including machine-generated music and scientific hypotheses, humans are still better at coming up with useful new ideas in most domains.

It is extraordinarily difficult to get a clear picture of how broadly and quickly technology will encroach on human territory (and a review of past predictions should deter anyone from trying), but it seems unlikely that hardware, software, robots, and artificial intelligence will be able to take over from human labor within the next decade. It is even less likely that people will stop having economic wants that are explicitly interpersonal or social; these will remain, and they will continue to provide demand for human workers.

From DSC:
Stop right there! Hold on! Those of us working in education or training need to be asking ourselves:

What do these MASSIVE trends mean for the way that we are educating, training, and preparing our learners and employees!?!?

This is not our grandfathers’/grandmothers’ economy and way of life! From here on out, people must be able to adapt, to pivot, to change — and they must be able to learn…continually and quickly. They need to be able to know where to go to find information and be able to sort through the content to find out what’s true and relevant. They need to know under what circumstances they learn best.

Finally, becoming familiar with futurism — looking down the pike to see what’s developing, building scenarios, etc. — is now wise counsel for a growing number of people.

How do we prepare the students of today to be tomorrow’s digital leaders? [Google & The Economist Intelligence Unit]

On 06/09/2015, in 21st century, career development, education, education reform, future, pace of change, staying relevant, student-related, surviving, teachers, technology (general), workplace, by Daniel Christian

How do we prepare the students of today to be tomorrow’s digital leaders? — from Google and The Economist Intelligence Unit

Excerpt:

Editor’s note: To understand the extent to which the skills taught in education systems around the world are changing, and whether they meet the needs of employers and society more widely, Google commissioned research from The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The EIU surveyed senior business executives, teachers and students. The key findings of the survey and the main issues raised by educators and students were discussed by a diverse panel at the opening session of Education on Air, the free online conference from Google on May 8th. Read the full report here.

With rapidly evolving business needs, technological advances and new work structures, the skills that will be needed in the future are shifting. In response to these changes, policymakers, educators and experts around the world are rethinking their education systems.

During Education on Air a panel of education experts participated in a discussion aimed at understanding how to best adapt education systems to the skills needs of the future:

…

Problem solving, team working and communication are the skills that are currently most in demand in the workplace.

Institutions say this is the new priority in higher education — from ecampusnews.com by Ron Bethke; with a shout out to eduwire.com for their comments/posting on this
Survey reveals institutions, like UC Irvine, are putting greater effort into tracking graduates’ success and helping them continue learning through short-term programs.

Excerpt:

The days of warmly wishing graduates farewell and good luck after four years is not a sustaining strategy for colleges and universities, says a new report. Instead, offering online programs to keep graduates coming back to the institution for continuing career education is quickly becoming higher-ed’s newest must-offer.
…
Simply better understanding how graduates are doing isn’t the only way institutions are showing their commitment to lifelong career success. Though only 4 percent of respondents currently offer short-term alternative credentials such as digital badges and short-term certificates for graduates changing careers or looking to learn new skills, 50 percent of responding senior executives plan to add these customizable certificates to their portfolio in the next five years, with another 30 percent planning to offer digital badges in the same time frame.

“Universities and colleges want better ways to connect with alumni for years to come,” said EAB Practice Manager Carla Hickman. “This means offering not just surveys, but also new, intensive learning opportunities that support lifelong achievement and success of students.”

UC Irvine, for example, is currently working on setting up special communities for alumni taking various MOOCs on Coursera, in order to bring more graduates back to learn in more meaningful ways.
…
“[Millennials] are seeking short-format courses and credentials for ‘just-in-time’ and ‘just enough’ education.

From DSC:
Given the pace and far-reaching impact of today’s changes, lifelong learning is now a requirement. Learning new things, staying on top of trends, peering out into the future to see what’s coming down the pike — these are important actions that we all need to take to remain marketable. If we see robots, algorithms, and automation coming into the neighborhood of our particular jobs, then we had better be looking and preparing for something else. At that point, we’ll need to pivot…to adapt…to change.

Speaking of change, the article above reminds me of a potentially more utilized “distribution channel” — or model, if you will — that universities, colleges, and businesses could be moving towards in the future. And that is, that organizations could be moving towards providing streams of relevant, curated, dependable content to learning hubs around the globe. Hubs that feature blended learning where some of the content is beamed in from Subject Matter Experts (such as professors, teachers, trainers, and others) and some of the content is dealt with in a face-to-face manner. The beamed in content could be done synchronously and/or asynchronously. And as people often like to learn with others around a physical location, I could see this type of model taking off.

It would feature smaller, bite-sized chunks of content and investigations into a topic. But the model would have to allow for such a learning provider to be nimble and responsive — always up-to-date. That way they could provide such “just-in-time” and “just enough” learning.

Other words that come to my mind here — both as individuals and as institutions — are the following:

Reinvent
Staying relevant
Surviving
Being responsive

Automated, creative & dispersed: The future of work in the 21st century — from The Economist

Date Published:
May 20th 2015

Excerpt:

The key findings are as follows:

In the next decade-and-a-half, digital technology will dissolve the concept of work as we know it.
The growing use and sophistication of automation will shift the emphasis of human employment towards creativity and social skills.
This new reality of work will require a new, more nurturing approach to management.

Contents

About the research
Executive summary
Introduction
Your workplace is… everywhere
The hospital of the future
Creative and social skills will dominate the automated world
The bank of the future
Well-being and employee development top the management agenda
The university of the future
The government of the future
Conclusion
Appendix: Survey results

This requires university workers to develop new skills, she says. Ms Shutt predicts that in the future lecturers will be encouraging more of their students to take work placements or even launch their own start-ups, and developing relationships that give industry a greater input
into the direction of research. “We need to develop skills in interaction with business and in preparing students for the work world.”

“Cash Monitoring List Unveiled” & “Increasing Transparency and Accountability for Students”

On 04/01/2015, in business side of he, change, future of higher education, game-changing environment, legislatures / government / legal, pace of change, reinvent, staying relevant, surviving, by Daniel Christian

Cash Monitoring List Unveiled — from insidehighered.com by Michael Stratford

Excerpt:

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Education on Tuesday, for the first time, named most of the hundreds of colleges whose federal aid it has restricted because of concerns about their finances or compliance with federal requirements.

The department released a partial list of the nearly 560 institutions that, as of March 1, were subject to the financial restrictions known as heightened cash monitoring. Most of the colleges — 487 institutions — were on the lower level of scrutiny, and 69 were subject to the higher, more stringent restrictions.

Increasing Transparency and Accountability for Students — from ed.gov

Excerpt:

Higher education remains the most important investment any person can make in their future. In the several months I’ve been at the U.S. Department of Education, I have had a number of conversations with students and families that have inspired me to double down on our commitment to making college more affordable and accessible. A big part of our work toward that goal has been to increase both the quantity and quality of information that students, families, borrowers and the public have about higher education.

[On 3/31/15] we are taking another step to increase transparency and accountability. We are releasing a list of colleges and universities that are on what we call Heightened Cash Monitoring. There were about 560 institutions on this list as of March 1. The list has been released to members of the press that requested it, and will be published on the Department website in the coming days and updated on a regular basis.

From DSC:
Most likely, these organizations will be in even bigger trouble as news of this list gets out — something the U.S. Department of Education knew all along and was the key reason they weren’t releasing it I’d wager. However, many people have been asking for this list to be made public; the recent closing of Briar College may have impacted the U.S. Department of Education’s decision here…I’m not sure.

But again, I’m going to ask, are those of us within higher education willing to change? To adapt? To respond to shifting landscapes, needs, economic pressures, etc.? If not, what’s it’s going to take? Perhaps if our/your institution’s name was on that list…would that do it? I don’t think we/you want that to happen. More of us had better take action well before that even becomes a remote possibility.

I’m attaching several categories to this posting, including:

Reinvent.
Surviving.
Staying relevant.
Business side of higher ed.
Change.
Pace of change.
Future of higher education.
Game-changing environment.

Reflections on “What does ‘learning’ have to learn from Netflix?” [Clark]

On 03/17/2015, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, A/V -- audio/visual, analytics, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, content development, aggregation, repositories, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, experimentation, global / globalization, higher education, human-computer interaction (HCI), ideas, innovation, K-12 related, learning, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, learning preferences, media/film, mirroring and/or multiple devices, mobile learning, more voice more choice more control, multimedia, online media, personalized/customized learning, platforms, reinvent, staying relevant, streams of content, surviving, technologies for your home, television, user experience (UX), using teams, vendors, by Daniel Christian

What does ‘learning’ have to learn from Netflix? — from donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.com by Donald Clark

Excerpts:

Of course, young people are watching way less TV these days, TV is dying, and when they do watch stuff, it’s streamed, at a time that suits them. Education has to learn from this. I’m not saying that we need to replace all of our existing structures but moving towards understanding what the technology can deliver and what learners want (they shape each other) is worth investigation. Hence some reflections on Netflix.

Areas discussed:

Timeshifting
Data driven delivery — Netflix’ recommendations engine
Data driven content
Content that’s accessible via multiple kinds of devices
Going global

From DSC:
I just wanted to add a few thoughts here:

The areas of micro-credentials, nano-degrees, services like stackup.net, big data, etc. may come to play a role with what Donald is talking about here.
I appreciate Donald’s solid, insightful perspectives and his thinking out loud — some great thoughts in that posting (as usual)
Various technologies seem to be making progress as we move towards a future where learning platforms will be able to deliver a personalized learning experience; as digital learning playlists and educationally-related recommendation engines become more available/sophisticated, highly-customized learning experiences should be within reach.
At a recent Next Generation Learning Spaces Conference, one of the speakers stated, “People are control freaks — so let them have more control.” Along these lines…ultimately, what makes this vision powerful is having more choice, more control.

MoreChoiceMoreControl-DSC

Also, some other graphics come to my mind:

You sure you want to blow off what Clayton Christensen has been saying?

On 03/13/2015, in business side of he, change, colleges, disruption, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, surviving, by Daniel Christian

Private Giveaway — from insidehighered.com –by Ry Rivard
Private college in Iowa gives itself to the University of Iowa rather than be forced out of business

Excerpt:

Leaders at the AIB College of Business in Iowa took a look at the future of their small private college and decided to shut down and donate the campus to the University of Iowa.

AIB’s decision, made back in January, is similar in some respects to one made a few weeks later by leaders at Sweet Briar College, a 700-student women’s college in rural Virginia, that announced it plans to close this year.

At AIB, officials figured they would close down before they were forced out of business.

Corinthian Colleges Closing — from huffingtonpost.com

Addendum 5/1/15 re: Corinthian Colleges:

For-Profit Corinthian Colleges Goes Out Of Business – from buzzfeed.com by
Some 16,000 students at Everest Colleges and other schools will be affected.
Excerpt (emphasis DSC):
Corinthian Colleges, the embattled for-profit college company, announced Sunday that it is ceasing operations, immediately shuttering all of its 28 remaining campuses. The abrupt closure is unprecedented in size: on Monday, some 16,000 students at Corinthian’s Everest, Heald, and Wyotech College chains, most of them in California, will have no school to attend.

California Attorney General Kamala Harris | Eric Risberg / Via AP Photo

See Bryan Alexander’s list of Queen Sacrifices including Elmhurst College makes a queen sacrifice (3/1/15)

Sweet Briar will close — from insidehighered.com by Scott Jaschik

Excerpt:

Sweet Briar College announced today that it is shutting down at the end of this academic year.

Small colleges close or merge from time to time, more frequently since the economic downturn started in 2008. But the move is unusual in that Sweet Briar still has a $94 million endowment, regional accreditation and some well-respected programs. But college officials said that the trend lines were too unfavorable, and that efforts to consider different strategies didn’t yield any viable options. So the college decided to close now, with some sense of order, rather than dragging out the process for several more years, as it could have done.

Paul G. Rice, board chair, said in an interview that he realized some would ask, “Why don’t you keep going until the lights go out?”

But he said that doing so would be wrong. “We have moral and legal obligations to our students and faculties and to our staff and to our alumnae. If you take up this decision too late, you won’t be able to meet those obligations,” he said. “People will carve up what’s left — it will not be orderly, nor fair.”

Closing with grace — from insidehighered.com by Alice Brown

Excerpt:

The closing of Sweet Briar College will, I expect, have little impact on other small, private, rural colleges with small endowments. Most will keep their heads in the sand, live on in a state of denial and continue to produce strategic plans that say little more than “Hope.”

Addendum on 3/17/15:

Tennessee Temple University To Close After Almost 70 Years — from chattanoogan.com

Excerpt:
Tennessee Temple University, after almost 70 years in operation in Highland Park, is set to close after this semester.

Trustees are set to vote on Tuesday morning to merge Temple with Piedmont International University of Winston-Salem, N.C. Students who are not graduating this semester would have the option to continue their education there. Bryan College in Dayton, Tn., and Shorter College at Rome, Ga., would be other options.
…
The merger with Piedmont will officially take place on April 30, pending the approval of the Transnational Association of Christian Colleges and Schools which is the accrediting body for both universities.

Addendum on 3/19/15:

University that went bankrupt amid tighter federal scrutiny looks to collect money from former students — from insidehighered.com

Addendum on 3/20/15:

Vermont college cuts staff, adjuncts, classes — from bryanalexander.org
Excerpt:
Lyndon State College announced a series of cuts this week, responding to all too common challenges in today’s higher education.

Addendums on 4/6/15:

Harrington College of Design will be closing — from collegehistorygarden.blogspot.com by Ray Brown
Jones International University will close — from collegehistorygarden.blogspot.com by Ray Brown

Technology in Higher Education: Defining the Strategic Leader [Educause & Jisc]

On 03/09/2015, in change, collaboration, communications, future of higher education, higher education, IT in HE, leadership, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, surviving, using teams, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

Technology in Higher Education: Defining the Strategic Leader. Research report. Jisc and EDUCAUSE, March 2015.

Abstract:

Information technology is so much the fabric of the university that its presence is often not fully recognized. The focus in the IT organization has shifted from a tactical to a strategic perspective. With the demand for IT only growing, understanding how IT leaders can best lead in these efforts is essential.

In early 2014, EDUCAUSE and Jisc came together to address a common concern: Understanding the skills required by technology leaders in higher education was an issue often overlooked and one needing immediate attention. The two organizations convened a working group of 10 leading U.S. and U.K. IT leaders to define a set of desired technology leadership characteristics and capabilities, now and in the future. This report identifies 10 key roles played by the IT leaders, describes what each of these roles entails, and outlines the essential skills required to perform them.

The higher education information technology (IT) enterprise has become complex. No longer simply responsible for provisioning IT infrastructure and services, the IT department increasingly helps re-envision business and service models—all in a context of cost and accountability pressures.

From DSC:
It’s good to see the emphasis on strategy and the strategic use of technologies — especially given the increasingly important role that technologies are playing throughout the majority of — if not all — industries in existence today (not to mention the exponential curve we’re on vs. a gradual/linear trajectory). This is true within higher ed as well, as new alternatives/models/methods continue to creep up on traditional institutions of higher ed.

Learning Ecosystems

Reflections on George Siemens’ posting: “White House: Innovation in Higher Education”

Are these some of the phenomenon that will sink higher education if we don’t address them? [Christian]

“Cash Monitoring List Unveiled” & “Increasing Transparency and Accountability for Students”

You sure you want to blow off what Clayton Christensen has been saying?

Technology in Higher Education: Defining the Strategic Leader [Educause & Jisc]

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