sociology

20 forecasts for 2014-2030 from the World Future Society
Trends and breakthroughs likely to affect your work, your investments, and your family

Excerpts:

At the outset, let me say that futurists do not claim to predict precisely what will happen in the future. If we could know the future with certainty, it would mean that the future could not be changed. Yet this is the main purpose of studying the future: to look at what may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is desirable, and, if it’s not, work to change it.

The main goal of studying the future is to make it better. Trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future enable you to spot opportunities and threats early, and position yourself, your business, and your investments accordingly.

How you can succeed in the age of hyperchange
Look how quickly our world is transforming around us. Entire new industries and technologies unheard of 15 years ago are now regular parts of our lives. Technology, globalization, and the recent financial crisis have left many of us reeling. It’s increasingly difficult to keep up with new developments—much less to understand their implications.

And, if you think things are changing fast now, you haven’t seen anything yet.

In this era of accelerating change, knowledge alone is no longer the key to a prosperous life. The critical skill is foresight.

7 ways to spot tomorrow’s trends today

Scan the media to identify trends
Analyze and extrapolate trends
Develop scenarios
Ask groups of experts
Use computer modeling
Explore possibilities with simulations
Create the vision

Will our children need to know how to interface with robots? — from quib.ly by Daniel Christian

Also see:

4 robots that teach children science and math in engaging ways– from scientificamerican.com by David Greer
Modular, programmable automatons make STEM learning fun

National All-Star [robot trading cards] Lineup for 2014 — from robotics.gatech.edu

CeBIT 2014: Three ways machine learning is changing the world — from businessinsider.com.au by Alex Heber

Excerpt:

‘Intelligent machines’ are increasingly interconnecting. The Internet of Things is imminent, with sensor networks and mobile devices connecting everyone and everything everywhere in the near future., Singularity’ – the moment of when machines become as capable as humans – is quickly becoming a buzzword that rivals Social Media. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is certain to play a role everywhere, and robots are dropping in price dramatically while gaining quickly in functionality and skills. Exponential technological progress is evident everywhere – but how will we – as linear beings – cope with this increasing empowerment of software and machines, the tremendous gain in the flow of real-time information, and the far-reaching implications that these developments will have? How will we keep up with thousands of real-time datafeeds, the ever-increasing volume, variety and depth of input, the tsunami of incoming communications and the rapidly improving smartness – and increasingly deep intelligence – of software, devices and machines? Will humans need to be ‘augmented’, soon, in order to keep up, and if so, where will this take us? What will happen to our ethics in a world of ultra-smart intelligent agents, artificial intelligence and the coming ‘trans-humanism’?

Technology and jobs: Coming to an office near you
The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense—and no country is ready for it — from economist.com by

Excerpts:

INNOVATION, the elixir of progress, has always cost people their jobs. In the Industrial Revolution artisan weavers were swept aside by the mechanical loom. Over the past 30 years the digital revolution has displaced many of the mid-skill jobs that underpinned 20th-century middle-class life. Typists, ticket agents, bank tellers and many production-line jobs have been dispensed with, just as the weavers were.

…

No time to be timid
If this analysis is halfway correct, the social effects will be huge. Many of the jobs most at risk are lower down the ladder (logistics, haulage), whereas the skills that are least vulnerable to automation (creativity, managerial expertise) tend to be higher up, so median wages are likely to remain stagnant for some time and income gaps are likely to widen.

Anger about rising inequality is bound to grow, but politicians will find it hard to address the problem. Shunning progress would be as futile now as the Luddites’ protests against mechanised looms were in the 1810s, because any country that tried to stop would be left behind by competitors eager to embrace new technology. The freedom to raise taxes on the rich to punitive levels will be similarly constrained by the mobility of capital and highly skilled labour.

The main way in which governments can help their people through this dislocation is through education systems. One of the reasons for the improvement in workers’ fortunes in the latter part of the Industrial Revolution was because schools were built to educate them—a dramatic change at the time. Now those schools themselves need to be changed, to foster the creativity that humans will need to set them apart from computers. There should be less rote-learning and more critical thinking. Technology itself will help, whether through MOOCs (massive open online courses) or even video games that simulate the skills needed for work.

Many of these presentations will be live streamed at:

Also see:

January 2014: Remote Webcast Locations

The Invisible Achievement Gap, Part 1 – Education Outcomes of Students in Foster Care in California’s Public Schools

On 10/15/2013, in assessment, education, education reform, K-12 related, society, sociology, United States, by Daniel Christian

The Invisible Achievement Gap, Part 1 – Education Outcomes of Students in Foster Care in California’s Public Schools — from cftl.org

From the email I rec’d on this:

The Invisible Achievement Gap, Part 1 – Education Outcomes of Students in Foster Care in California’s Public Schools is a first-of-its-kind analysis that links data from California’s education and child welfare systems for the 2009-10 academic year to create an education snapshot of K-12 students in foster care in California. The report reveals a previously invisible achievement gap between children in foster care and other students, including other at-risk subgroups such as low-Socio-Economic Status (SES), English learners, and students with disabilities. The research shows that students in foster care:

constituted an at-risk subgroup that was distinct from low-SES students.
were more likely than other students to change schools during the school year.
were more likely than the general population of students to be enrolled in the lowest-performing schools.
had the lowest participation rate in California’s statewide testing program.
showed an achievement gap in statewide tests when compared to other at-risk students.
had the highest dropout rate and lowest graduation rate.

The Invisible Achievement Gap is the result of a unique collaboration between the California Department of Education, the California Department of Social Services, the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd, and other agencies. Funded by the Stuart Foundation, the findings are particularly relevant and timely as California becomes the first state in the nation to attempt to track the academic progress of students in foster care as part of its new school finance reform plan. This research offers new evidence for policymakers to use in their continuing efforts to improve the academic success of students in foster care.

To learn more about the report or download it for free, please visit: http://cftl.org/What’s_New.htm

Reflections on “Detroit goes bankrupt, the largest city to do so in U.S.” [Davey]

On 07/18/2013, in business, collaboration, Daniel S. Christian, hearts -- matters of the heart, Michigan, society, sociology, United States, web-based collaboration, by Daniel Christian

Detroit goes bankrupt, the largest city to do so in U.S. — from nytimes.com by Monica Davey

Excerpt:

DETROIT — Detroit, the cradle of America’s automobile industry and once the nation’s fourth-most-populous city, has filed for bankruptcy, an official said Thursday afternoon, the largest American city ever to take such a course.

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From DSC:
First of all, thanks to George Siemens for posting this item on Twitter. Secondly, as I mentioned there, many people have left Detroit through the years, leaving an aging infrastructure that still needs to be paid for, but with a constantly dwindling tax base.

What are some of the lessons other cities, towns, and villages can learn from this?

One potential item that comes to my mind is to not put all of our eggs into one basket. Detroit was too focused on the automobile; we should have diversified more. (This could also be said of our careers/skillsets I suppose…)

Anyway, the people of Detroit have been on my heart and mind for years now. I internally pitched an idea a while back whereby our student teachers in our Education Department could employ web-based collaboration tools to help the youth of Detroit in their studies. It seemed like a potential WIN-WIN situation — providing real-world teaching experience to our current EDUC students (and most likely opening up completely new experiences for them) while at the same time providing some solid/free tutoring/assistance for the students of Detroit.

Addendums on 7/19/13:

Quote from Governor Snyder today
I’d like to take a moment to explain why I made that decision and what it means for the city — and for the State of Michigan. In many respects, this day has been six decades in the making. Detroit is buried under $18 billion in debt and unfunded liabilities. In fact, 38 cents of every city dollar goes toward debt repayment, legacy costs and other obligations. By 2017, that figure will go up to 65 cents per dollar. That level of debt is unsustainable.
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And this could help:
The Federal Communications Commission begins its restructuring on Friday of the “E-rate” the government uses to provide schools with funds to connect to the Internet.
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I tried flipping an inner-city, impoverished class and… — from bamradionetwork.com by Jon Bergmann and Kathy Swanger
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Consider bringing in remote teachers/experts via tools and technologies such as these

A powerful prayer from Linda Naranjo-Huebl

On 07/15/2013, in 21st century, dangers of the status quo, faith, hearts -- matters of the heart, society, sociology, by Daniel Christian

From Linda Naranjo-Huebl on Sunday, July 14, 2013 — a day after George Zimmerman was found not guilty of murder in Trayvon Martin’s death

After discussions with my African American friends and a morning of intense prayer and tears, mingled with despair, a prayer:

God of the Universe, come to us in our despair and broken heartedness, and minister life to your children. God of Justice, reach us in our mourning over our African American brothers, fathers, and sons who are not safe on our streets. Stepping outside their homes–as objects of hatred, suspicion and fear–they face the very real threats of harassment, molestation, assault, and death by both police officers and citizens. Let me stand with my sisters who are mothers, daughters, wives, and sisters of black boys and men in the United States. Forgive me when I have let my own privileged position keep me at a safe distance from the fear and heartache that weighs on their hearts and souls every day. Let their despair, fear, anger, and heartbreak be my own. Help them as they struggle to support their sons, brothers, husbands, and fathers as they walk in this hostile world, as they try to encourage them to trust in a God who calls them beloved when the world will not, who will never forsake them in their trials.

Oh how hard it is right now to believe with our brother Martin Luther King Jr. that the “arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” We cry out with the prophet, “Let justice roll on like a river, righteousness like a never-failing stream!” (Amos 5:24). Holy Spirit, grant us faith; help us believe that your justice reigns, that you record all our tears in a bottle and write them in your book (Ps. 56:8), that you will judge the unrighteousness, that you will one day wipe every tear from the eyes of the victims of injustice. Keep us from falling into hopelessness, cynicism, and despair. Take our anger and hopelessness and turn our energies into the work of justice and reconciliation between God and humans and among our human family, for this is the heart of the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

Regards,

Linda Naranjo-Huebl
Associate Professor of English
Calvin College

—————-

Also see:

This video that the Howard University School of Law posted last year.

Lament From a White Father — from huffingtonpost.com by Jim Wallis
Excerpts (emphasis DSC):
It’s time for white people — especially white parents — to listen, to learn, and to speak out on the terribly painful loss of Trayvon Martin. If my white 14-year-old son Luke had walked out that same night, in that same neighborhood, just to get a snack, he would have come back to his dad unharmed — and would still be with me and Joy today. Everyone, being honest with ourselves, knows that is true. But when black 17-year-old Trayvon Martin went out that night, just to get a snack, he ended up dead — and is no longer with his dad and mom. Try to imagine how that feels, as his parents.
…
Listen to the stories from Saturday and Sunday nights, of 12-year-old black boys who asked to sleep in bed with their parents because they were afraid. If black youth in America can’t rely on the police, the law, or their own neighborhood for protection — where can they go?
…
Finally, there is a religious message here for all Christians. If there ever was a time that demonstrated why racially and culturally diverse congregations are needed — that time is now. The body of Christ is meant, instructed, and commanded by Christ to be racially inclusive. If white Christians stay in our mostly-white churches and talk mostly to each other we will never understand how our black brothers and sisters are feeling after a terrible weekend like this one. It was the conversation of every black church in America on this Sunday, but very few white Christians heard that discussion or felt that pain. White Christians cannot and must not leave the sole responsibility of telling the truth about America, how it has failed Trayvon Martin and so many black Americans, solely to their African-American brothers and sisters in Christ. It’s time for white Christians to listen to their black brothers and sisters, to learn their stories, and to speak out for racial justice and reconciliation. The country needs multi-racial communities of faith to show us how to live together.

The Harvard Implicit Bias test
Take this free test with a) the racial ethnic group you are most comfortable with and b) the racial ethnic group you are least comfortable with. Then read the book BlindSpot: Hidden Biases of Good People (2013) by Banaji and Greenwald.

Check out SEA Biofuels for some excellent news! Then consider helping out.

On 03/28/2013, in future, geography / geology, global / globalization, health, hearts -- matters of the heart, society, sociology, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
Check out this very cool news from my friend and Bible Study fellow — Mr. Patrick Mohney, President of SEA Biofuels, LLC

This is really amazing.

First of all, people in the developing world, even today, use either campfires or some other smokey cooking system. This type of cooking is the norm for three billion people today, this leads to millions of deaths per year, as well as a leading contributor of greenhouse gases. Also, I learned that in some parts of the world, women that normally collect the cooking fuel, are the subject of physical violence and rape as they collect fuel in a territory that another clan, family or tribe feel belongs to them. I hear these things and think, “Seriously, we have to fix this!”

We could fix this, if we had a clean and environmentally friendly alternative fuel that they could afford. Now we have just that. We make fuel from excess agricultural waste like rice husks, coconut shells or almost any woody bio-material.

The stove-fuel combo is the most efficient in the world, but the reason that I am excited about it, is that it is less expensive to operate for the consumer than the alternative fuels. As it turns out, people that use wood or charcoal to cook with, usually pay for it, and it is not cheap. Our fuel is usually half to three quarters of the price of the status quo fuel at retail to the consumer. This is why our stove and fuel is presently the only option that is scale-able and can help millions, or billions of people.

I know you are busy, but we can solve this for half of the worlds people, if you could just pass this on or make some noise. Like us on FB.

Our mission statement is, “Be a Blessing to others and you will be Blessed”.

God Bless you and your family.

Patrick Mohney
President
SEA Biofuels, LLC

From DSC and Patrick:
Contribute something today — make the world a better place to live in.

Visualizing the future urban world [Schwartz]

On 03/22/2013, in 21st century, Australia, business, Canada, corporate / business world, economics, Europe, future, global / globalization, graphics, sociology, United States, visualizing information, by Daniel Christian

Visualizing the future urban world — from fastcoexist.com by Ariel Schwartz
A new app called Urban World beautifully projects how cities around the world are going to explode in growth and economic power by 2025.

Also see:

The January Series at Calvin College begins January 3rd — great lineup of speakers/topics

On 01/02/2013, in art, Asia, communications, corporate / business world, faith, future, global / globalization, history, liberal arts, political science, psychology, religion, society, sociology, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Calvin College: The January Series
Presentations begin 12:30 p.m. EST (11:30 a.m. CST, 10:30 a.m. MST, 9:30 a.m. PST)
NOTE: Due to contractual restrictions, a few of these presentations will not be recorded or archived.

More details here, but a listing of the speakers/topics include:

Thursday, January 3
Jeremy Courtney – “Restoring Hearts in Iraq”

Friday, January 4
Sheryl WuDunn – “Half the Sky: Turning Oppression into Opportunity for Women Worldwide”

Monday, January 7
Roberta Green Ahmanson – “Dreams Become Reality: Inspiration through the Arts”

Tuesday, January 8
Jenny Yang – “Welcoming the Stranger: Justice, Compassion and Truth in the Immigration Debate”

Wednesday, January 9
Richard J. Mouw & Robert Millet – “Evangelicals and Mormons: A Conversation and Dialogue”

Thursday, January 10
Peter Diamandis – “Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think”

Friday, January 11
Captain Scotty Smiley – “Hope Unseen”

Monday, January 14
Jeff Van Duzer – “Why Business Matters to God”

Tuesday, January 15
Rebecca Skloot – “The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks”

Wednesday, January 16
Cokie Roberts – “An Insider’s View of Washington DC”

Thursday, January 17
W. Dwight Armstrong – “Feeding the World and the Future of Farming”

Friday, January 18
Garth Pauley – “Rituals of Democracy: Inaugural Addresses in American History”

Monday, January 21
Robert Robinson – “Celebration through Gospel Music” in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

Tuesday, January 22
Mike Kim – “North Korea-China: A Modern Day Underground Railroad”

Wednesday, January 23
Chap Clark – “Sticky Faith”in partnership with the Calvin Institute of Christian Worship

The end of middle class growth: What it means for the future of work, family, and the economy [Rauch]

On 12/06/2012, in disruption, economics, future, psychology, sociology, United States, workplace, by Daniel Christian

The end of middle class growth: What it means for the future of work, family, and the economy — from theatlantic.com by Jonathan Rauch
There is no modern precedent for America’s stalled middle class — or for the double detachment from work and marriage among low-earning men. So, what do we do now?

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When machines do your job [Regalado and McAfee]

On 07/12/2012, in Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, career development, computer science, corporate / business world, robotics, society, sociology, by Daniel Christian

The Future of Work
When machines do your job — from TechnologyReview.com by Antonio Regalado
Researcher Andrew McAfee says advances in computing and artificial intelligence could create a more unequal society.

Excerpt:

Are American workers losing their jobs to machines?

That was the question posed by Race Against the Machine, an influential e-book published last October by MIT business school researchers Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. The pair looked at troubling U.S. employment numbers—which have declined since the recession of 2008-2009 even as economic output has risen—and concluded that computer technology was partly to blame.

Advances in hardware and software mean it’s possible to automate more white-collar jobs, and to do so more quickly than in the past. Think of the airline staffers whose job checking in passengers has been taken by self-service kiosks. While more productivity is a positive, wealth is becoming more concentrated, and more middle-class workers are getting left behind.

If you’re out in the Seattle area, check this 2/10/12 event out –> Art as a Social Catalyst

On 02/06/2012, in art, change, creativity, society, sociology, STEAM-related, by Daniel Christian

Learning Ecosystems

20 forecasts for 2014-2030 from the World Future Society

Calvin College’s January Series 2014: Some excellent presentations coming up!

Reflections on “Detroit goes bankrupt, the largest city to do so in U.S.” [Davey]

A powerful prayer from Linda Naranjo-Huebl

Check out SEA Biofuels for some excellent news! Then consider helping out.

Visualizing the future urban world [Schwartz]

The January Series at Calvin College begins January 3rd — great lineup of speakers/topics

The end of middle class growth: What it means for the future of work, family, and the economy [Rauch]

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