Automation, jobs, and the future of work — from mckinsey.com
A group of economists, tech entrepreneurs, and academics discuss whether technological advances will automate tasks more quickly than the United States can create jobs.

Excerpt:

The topic of job displacement has, throughout US history, ignited frustration over technological advances and their tendency to make traditional jobs obsolete; artisans protested textile mills in the early 19th century, for example. In recent years, start-ups and the high-tech industry have become the focus of this discussion. A recent Pew Research Center study found that technology experts are almost evenly split on whether robots and artificial intelligence will displace a significant number of jobs over the next decade, so there is plenty of room for debate.

What follows is an edited transcript plus video clips of a conversation on this topic, moderated by McKinsey Global Institute partner Michael Chui and MGI director James Manyika. The participants were Martin Baily, senior fellow, economic studies, Brookings Institution; Richard Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University; Curtis Carlson, former president and CEO, SRI International; Reid Hoffman, partner, Greylock; Tim O’Reilly, founder and CEO, O’Reilly Media; Matt Slaughter, associate dean of faculty, Tuck School of Business; Laura Tyson, professor of business administration and economics, Haas Business and Public Policy Group, University of California, Berkeley; and Vivek Wadhwa, fellow, Arthur & Toni Rembe Rock Center for Corporate Governance, Stanford University.

It’s quite clear, in the US in recent years, that we’re not creating enough good jobs. People care a lot about their W-2s—what incomes are they earning? If you segment this by educational attainment, 96.2 percent of the US workforce since 2000 is in an educational cohort whose total money earnings, inflation adjusted, have been falling, not rising.

What’s happening with the technology, which is skill biased and labor saving, is that it’s eliminating middle-income jobs but is complementary to high skills. The jobs are high-income jobs because some smart people have to work with the technology. But there’s a very large number of people who are being pushed down into lower-income jobs.

Maybe we’re looking at the wrong symptoms as opposed to looking at the fundamentals—we are not innovating at the speed of the economy. We are not adapting fast enough

 

Following up on yesterday’s posting, History Channel bringing online courses to higher ed, I wanted to thank Mr. Rob Kingyens, President at Qubed Education, for alerting me to some related work that Qubed Education is doing. Below is an example of that work:

The University of Southern California, Condé Nast and WIRED launch Master of Integrated Design, Business and Technology — from qubededucation.com
New Learning Model Combines Network and Access of WIRED with Academic Strength and Vision of the USC Roski School of Art and Design

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

MARIN, Calif., October 1, 2014 – The University of Southern California, Condé Nast and WIRED today announced a partnership to create a new online Master’s degree in Integrated Design, Business and Technology. The partnership creates an unprecedented learning experience, combining the expertise of the editors, writers, and designers at WIRED with the academic rigor of USC, a leading research university known for its pioneering interdisciplinary programs. The aim of the 18-24 month degree is to educate creative thinkers and technologists to better equip them to transform the world of industry and enterprise. The first cohort is scheduled to begin in the 2015-2016 academic year.

“The pace of technology development requires higher education to continue to respond with programs that are flexible and adaptable, and that meet the needs of future cultural and business leaders,” said Dean Muhl.

“We’ve been thinking for years about what a university curriculum with WIRED would look like, and now we have a chance to build it with a terrific partner,” said Dadich. “Taking the best from USC and WIRED, we can teach discipline and disruption, business fundamentals, and the very latest innovation models from Silicon Valley. This is going to be thrilling.”

USC’s program development and build out will be powered by higher education partners Synergis Education and Qubed Education.

 

From Qubed’s website:

Qubed is the gateway for world-class, global brands to enter the education market with top tier universities.

 

From DSC:
I’ve long wondered if institutions of higher education will need to pool resources and/or form more partnerships and collaborations — either with other universities/colleges or with organizations outside of higher education. This reflection grows stronger for me when I:

  • Think that team-based content creation and delivery is pulling ahead of the pack
  • Hear about the financial situations of many institutions of higher education today (example1; example2)
  • See the momentum building up behind Competency Based Education (CBE)
  • Witness the growth of alternatives like Ideo Futures, Yieldr Academy, Lessons Go Where, ClassDo, Udemy, C-Suite TV.com and others
  • Hear about the potential advantages of learning analytics
  • See the pace of change accelerating — challenging higher education to keep up

For some institution(s) of higher education out there with deep pockets and a strong reputation, I could see them partnering up with an IBM (Watson), Google (Deepmind), Apple (Siri), Amazon (Echo), or Microsoft (Cortana) to create some next generation learning platforms. In fact, this is one of the areas I see occurring as lifelong learning/self-directed learning opportunities hit our living rooms. The underlying technologies these companies are working on could be powerful allies in the way people learn in the future — doing some heavy lifting to build the foundations in a variety of disciplines, and leaving the higher-order learning and the addressing of gaps to professors, teachers, trainers, and others.

 

 

 

ForesightEducationPrgms-FuturistSepOct2014

 

Introduction (emphasis DSC)

Futures Studies as it has evolved since the early 1970s is both a discipline and a meta-discipline. It is a set of skills and applied methodologies that can be learned—in impressively diverse ways—and it is a dynamic way of coming to understand the world that is practical and empowering. As Alvin Toffler wrote in 1974, “A focus on the future is relevant to all learners, regardless of age.”

For this special report, we called for essays from futurists who have experienced futures education, be it in a K-12 class project, a professional certificate program, a workshop, or a full degree program. We received an overwhelming response from students, educators, and several people who have been on both sides of the learning and teaching experience.

We hope readers will continue to share their experiences with us—and with tomorrow’s futures learners.

—THE EDITORS

 


 

From DSC:
I can’t stress enough the importance of helping students learn more about how to see what might be coming down the pike — to be able to pulse check a variety of environments.  This is not “fluff”, gazing into a crystal ball, or pie-in-the-sky type of thinking.  There are numerous techniques being used within futurism today*, with real and practical applications. 

For me, futures studies have strong ties in with developing strategy and vision as well as identifying opportunities and threats.

Students need access to many more of these *futures studies* programs!  (teachthefuture.org may be helpful here).  We can’t start building these programs out too soon. Enrollments should be strong once people understand how helpful and practical these skills and methodologies can be.  In fact, given the exponential pace we are currently experiencing, these skills become critical not only for corporations/businesses and for higher education, but for individuals as well — especially seeing as more of us are becoming contingent workers (freelancers, independent professionals, temporary contract workers, independent contractors or consultants).

When we’re moving at 180 mph, we can’t be looking at the front of our hoods.  We need to be scanning the horizons.

 


 

* As Haven Allahar stated in the item “Futures Education in the Caribbean”:

…the common techniques utilized in the practice of futuring:

  1. Scanning.
  2. DEGEST (demography, economics, governance, environment, society, technology).
  3. Trend analysis.
  4. Scenarios.
  5. Delphi polling.
  6. Modeling.
  7. Simulation and games.
  8. Brainstorming.
  9. Visioning.
  10. Anticipating wild cards.

 


 

DanielChristian-MonitoringTrends

 

 

 

 

 

smart-creatives---google-presentation-from-oct-2014

 

From DSC:
Another slide mentioned the importance of asking:

  • What’s changed?
  • What assumptions are people making that are no longer true?
  • Why does everything feel like it’s speeding up?

People in higher ed would be wise to ask these questions.

 

15 Calif. community colleges to offer bachelor degrees — from usatoday.com by Kyle Plantz

Excerpt:

Paving the way for one of the largest community college systems in the United States to offer four-year degrees, on Sept. 28 California Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law a bill that will create a pilot program for 15 community colleges across the state to fill a growing workforce demand for college-educated, skilled workers in fields such as health, science and technology.

Also see:

  • Community colleges increasingly adding bachelor’s degrees — from hechingerreport.org by Jon Marcus
    Excerpt:
    It’s St. Petersburg College, formerly St. Petersburg Junior College, one of an increasing number of community colleges around the country that have started offering four-year bachelor’s degrees in fields for which there is high job demand.

.

From DSC:
I put a similar item out there on Twitter about this same topic and someone came back with some verbiage that hit me as strange…it caught me off guard.  She mentioned the word “war” between community colleges and other colleges/universities.  I don’t think that’s the word I would use and I think the greater concern for those of us working within higher education might be the dynamics as found in this recent posting. That’s what higher ed should be far more concerned with — i.e. alternatives that keep developing because higher ed is too slow to respond to increasing costs and is not keeping up with a world that’s spinning at speeds that continue to change exponentially, not incrementally.

.

ExponentialNotLinearSparksNHoney-Spring2013

 

From DSC:
Last week, I ran across 2 postings that involved companies creating their own platforms and methods of educating and training folks — especially for their own industry and their own business needs.  They were:

 


 

IDEO-Online-EducationBeta-Oct2014

 

 

 

YieldrAcademy-Sept2014

 

 


 

A relevant aside/excerpt from Learning TRENDS by Elliott Masie – October 10, 2014  | #851 – Updates on Learning, Business & Technology

  1. Stephen Colbert – “Appointment TV” – Carol Burnett Perspective: Last night, a fun convergence happened between the Stephen Colbert TV Show, Learning, Carol Burnnett and Appointment TV.

As you may know, MASIE Productions is co-producing Love Letters – Starring Carol Burnett starting tomorrow on Broadway. She was interviewed on the Colbert TV Show and asked about the change in how people watch and consume media and content.

Stephen Colbert noted that when her show was on decades ago, she had 50 million viewers each week for the Carol Burnett Show. Carol noted:

* Every Saturday night there were these shows on in row: Archie Bunker, MASH, Mary Tyler Moore, Bob Newhart, Carol Burnett

* She joked that, back then – in 1967 – “There was only 1 channel on TV” – though there were only a few 🙂

* But, she said that the difference was that it was “APPOINTMENT TELEVISION” – People made a plan, to sit together with family and friends, and watch a show together – as others did at the same time around the country.

I loved her phrase “APPOINTMENT TELEVISION”.  In relates directly to Learning.  Much of what we did, for decades, was “APPOINTMENT TRAINING” – a parallel to the same trend in the workplace.  But, now the shift is towards many – many – more options – and viewer/learner freedom to choose when, what, how long and how often.

Also see:

  • Is innovation outpacing education? — from techpageone.dell.com by
    Futurist Thomas Frey believes ‘micro-colleges’ will educate the workforce of the future.

 


 

Amelia-computer-after-jobs-9-2014

Excerpt:

 “Amelia, on the other hand, started out not with the intention of winning Jeopardy, but with the pure intention of answering the question posed by Alan Turing in 1950 – can machines think?”

While most ‘smart machines’ require humans to adapt their behaviour in order to interact with them, Amelia is intelligent enough to interact like a human herself. She speaks more than 20 languages, and her core knowledge of a process needs only to be learned once for her to be able to communicate with customers in their language.

Amelia has already been trialled within a number of Fortune 1000 companies, in areas such as manning technology help desks, procurement processing, financial trading operations support and providing expert advice for field engineers.

In each of these environments, she has learnt not only from reading existing manuals and situational context but also by observing and working with her human colleagues and discerning for herself a map of the business processes being followed.

 

From DSC:

  • How does the trend towards more powerful, capable Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications and services affect what we should be teaching our students?
  • How should our curricula change/adapt to these trends?
  • How should employees reinvent themselves and protect their futures?

Part of me thinks, “This is some scary stuff!”   Another part of me reflects on who is controlling such powerful technologies and wondering how such technologies are going to be used.  One thing’s for sure, we better hope that the people controlling these technologies care about other human beings.  It isn’t just minds that are involved here.  Most assuredly, hearts are involved here as well.

Addendum on 10/2/14:

 

 

 

From DSC:
First of all, let me say that I’m a big fan and supporter of a liberal arts education — my degree was in economics (from Northwestern University’s College of Arts & Sciences, as the school was called at the time) and I currently work at a Christian liberal arts college. 

That said, within the current higher education landscape, we’re already seeing and hearing more and more about competency-based education, credits for prior learning, and other forms of obtaining a credential in less time.  I don’t have data on this, but my mental picture of these things is that such initiatives have had a limited impact, at least so far. 

However, as the pace of change has increased, I wonder…what if hiring decisions move significantly more towards “Show me what you can DO…?  That’s already taking place to a significant degree in many hiring situations, but my reflection revolves around questions such as:

  • What if it takes too long to wait for someone to get a 2 or 4-year degree? Will employers start looking more towards what competencies someone has today or can acquire much more quickly? 
  • Will people look outside of traditional higher education to get those skills?

Again, these reflections involve the increasing pace of change.

The pace has changed significantly and quickly

 

Anyway, such a shift could open doors for new “providers” such as:  

 

LessonsGoWhere

 

 

ClassDo

 

iUniv-August2014

 

 

udemy

 

Then, consider some quotes from the following article, Tottering Ivory Towers:

 

TotteringTowers-August112014

Excerpts:

…there is growing interest in new ways of measuring the quality of a degree. The variety of scorecards now available, for instance, means students and their parents have much better and more granular measures of quality than accreditation provides. For another, employers are gradually making greater use of independent, competency-based measures and credentialed courses rather than relying on accredited degrees and credit hours (derided as “seat time” by its critics). Try getting a job in computer network management if you can’t show which Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer courses you have passed. Meanwhile, Udacity is partnering with Google, AT&T, and other technology firms in an “Open Education Alliance” to provide top-level technical skills. Nevertheless, when it comes to alternatives to accreditation, the United States is generally playing catch-up with some other countries. In Britain, for instance, students can earn employer-union certified City & Guilds qualifications while studying at almost any institution, and there are standard competency measures in a variety of professional fields.

In a New York Times interview, Google’s senior vice president for people operations, Laszlo Bock, admitted that transcripts, test scores, and even degrees are less useful than other data as predictors of employee success.3 In this environment, an industry-led move to create a more dependable measure of knowledge and ability than a transcript will become increasingly attractive.

The critical lesson from the transformation of other industries is that it is likely to be a disastrous mistake to assume you can just tweak an existing business model and be all right. That can work only for a while.

 

Dmitry Sheynin writes in his article, Is innovation outpacing education?With the ever-increasing pace of innovation, traditional colleges and universities are failing to train and retrain workers quickly enough. The model of two and four-year degrees, [futurist Thomas Frey] says, is largely incompatible with an industry that gets flipped on its head every couple of quarters.”  Again, according to Frey, “The main factor driving change in the labor force is new innovations rendering old jobs obsolete, but no mechanism is in place yet to help workers grow at the pace of evolving technology.”

Self-directed learning, or heutagogy, is key in this fast-paced environment. We all need to be constantly learning, growing, and reinventing ourselves.  However, not everyone is comfortable with such an approach.  So there are some gaps/opportunities opening up for those organizations who are innovative enough to experiment and to change.

 

Also see:

 

Addendum on 9/17/14:

Excerpt:

Argosy University System is among the first institutions in a movement toward competency-based education, creating new models of direct assessment that promise to reduce time-to-degree and offer greater relevance for graduates in the job market. CT talked with Argosy University System’s vice chancellor for academic affairs to learn how that institution tackled competency-based education — creating the first WASC-accredited MBA in its region based on a direct assessment, competency model. Now, Argosy is developing hybrid approaches that combine direct assessment with traditional seat time-based courses.

Addendum on 10/2/14:

 

Addendum on 10/8/14:

 

Addendum on 10/13/14:

.

 

TheFuturist-FuturesEducation-SepOct2014

 

 

From DSC:
Given the pace of change, thinking like a futurist is quickly becoming a necessary skill.  You don’t want to be the person they come up to and tap on the shoulder…telling you that your services are no longer needed here. I wish more colleges and universities had such programs — or at least integrating more of this way of thinking into all of the disciplines.

 

 

 

Addendum on 8/23/14:

  • WFS CEO Amy Zalman speaks to London futurists and others during UK tour — from WFS
    Excerpt:
    Dr. Zalman’s tour concluded with an address to the London Futurists, where she spoke to an audience of 70 about the future of futurism. She stressed the need for “now futurism,” a call to action for foresight professionals to take active, incremental steps today to shape the future.”The need for ‘now futurism’ is immense. It’s partly why I think that networks like the one I now have the privilege of leading are so crucial,” said Zalman. “We are home to an important professional community, but also a very wide span of others who feel some stake in the future… Small insertions into the system will, through the wonder of network effects, create feedback loops that should reach into the society that lies beyond the boundaries of our membership and network.”To listen to the speech, click here.
    .
  • Futurism – Profession, Art or Science?
    Excerpt:
    To put this into context, futurism is different from strategy, our own prime concern – instead of juggling knowledge of the past, current realities and future expectations into a plan of action and reaction against fast-moving opponents, the futurist is looking ahead to the probabilities and possibilities that might affect strategy beyond the immediate struggle.  Many of the audience were engineers and scientists used to hypotheses that had to be tested against evidenced data so some may have been surprised to hear Amy refer to professional futurism in terms that were more humanistic and the futurist, amongst many other analogues, as an artist.

 

 

Futurism – Profession, Art or Science?

This last Saturday, August 16th, Dr. Amy Zalman, only in the job of President and CEO of the World Future Society a matter of weeks, gave a talk, followed by a very stimulating discussion, to a growing group of London-based futurists convened by David Wood.

To put this into context, futurism is different from strategy, our own prime concern – instead of juggling knowledge of the past, current realities and future expectations into a plan of action and reaction against fast-moving opponents, the futurist is looking ahead to the probabilities and possibilities that might affect strategy beyond the immediate struggle.

Many of the audience were engineers and scientists used to hypotheses that had to be tested against evidenced data so some may have been surprised to hear Amy refer to professional futurism in terms that were more humanistic and the futurist, amongst many other analogues, as an artist.

– See more at: http://blog.tppr.co.uk/24-futurism-profession-art-or-science#sthash.qz5Ckq5c.dpuf

 

How do you plan the campus of the future? Try not to. — from chronicle.com by Avi Wolfman-Arent

 

Excerpts:

“My goal as the dean is to create an environment where everything can be repurposed,” Mr. Huttenlocher says.

He and his team are in the tenuous middle stages of planning and building exactly that: the chameleon campus, a space where interchangeability permeates everything. As Cathy Dove, Cornell Tech’s founding vice president, puts it, “We want to embody the principle of iteration.”

“How do you do something that’s technologically advanced that isn’t immediately technologically dated?”

To ask it another way, how do you create a new institution in an age where everything—office design, intelligent infrastructure, cloud computing, classroom technology—presents some opportunity to break with the past? What do you build? What do you wire? What kind of interactions do you encourage? Some institutions might create committees to try to anticipate specific changes. Cornell Tech is determined to do the opposite. Those responsible for building the campus of the future won’t pretend to know what the future holds. They only hope they’re building something malleable enough to handle it.

 

Everyone needs to be a futurist — from innovationexcellence.co by Reuven Gorsht

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

While most of us work on the day-to-day operational details and focus on hitting the metrics, we often assume that there must be someone in the company that is thinking about the future. Whether we assume it’s the board, senior executives or perhaps the corporate strategy team, we somewhat believe that somewhere above our level, both the foresight and plans exist to stave disruption, capitalize on new opportunities and figure out exactly how the company needs to change to either survive or achieve the next paradigm of growth.

This, however, is a fallacy that lands organizations and individuals in a lot of hot water. While most of us are in roles where we are focused on exploiting the current business model, nowadays, everyone’s job, regardless of level, is to be somewhat of a futurist who is able to foresee where the business is going and internalize the change by creating and executing their individual plans.

Everyone needs to be a futurist.

Yes, we all have full-time jobs and enough on our plates to keep us busy, but without an investment in gaining the foresight and our own personal meaning on where our company, industry and roles are going, how might we proactively keep ourselves relevant? Sometimes ignorance is bliss, and most of us prefer to be in our comfort zones, but we’ve all seen the recent wake-up calls from companies such as Nokia, New York Times and Blackberry.

When it gets to a point that senior leadership has to write a manifesto that calls for drastic change, it is likely too late to start shifting yourself to adjust to the new realities of your company. Only by being proactive, can we effectively internalize what it may mean for us individually and create the runway necessary to make the shift.

Bottom line: If you’re not spending some time understanding the future and what it means to you personally, you are effectively putting yourself in the position of being tapped on the shoulder one day and being told that you are no longer relevant to where the company is headed.

 

 

 
 

Trends and breakthroughs likely to affect your work, your investments, and your family

Excerpts:

At the outset, let me say that futurists do not claim to predict precisely what will happen in the future. If we could know the future with certainty, it would mean that the future could not be changed. Yet this is the main purpose of studying the future: to look at what may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is desirable, and, if it’s not, work to change it.

The main goal of studying the future is to make it better. Trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future enable you to spot opportunities and threats early, and position yourself, your business, and your investments accordingly.

How you can succeed in the age of hyperchange
Look how quickly our world is transforming around us. Entire new industries and technologies unheard of 15 years ago are now regular parts of our lives. Technology, globalization, and the recent financial crisis have left many of us reeling. It’s increasingly difficult to keep up with new developments—much less to understand their implications.

And, if you think things are changing fast now, you haven’t seen anything yet.

 

In this era of accelerating change, knowledge alone is no longer the key to a prosperous life. The critical skill is foresight.

 

 

7 ways to spot tomorrow’s trends today

  1. Scan the media to identify trends
  2. Analyze and extrapolate trends
  3. Develop scenarios
  4. Ask groups of experts
  5. Use computer modeling
  6. Explore possibilities with simulations
  7. Create the vision

 

 

From DSC:
Last spring, I saw the following graphic from Sparks & Honey’s presentation entitled, “8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity“:

 

ExponentialNotLinearSparksNHoney-Spring2013

 

If today’s changes are truly exponential — and I agree with Sparks & Honey that they are, especially as they relate to technological changes — how soon will it be before each of us is interacting with a robot?

This is not an idle idea or question, nor is it a joke. It will be here sooner than most of us think!  The science fiction of the past is here (at least in part).  Some recent items I’ve run across come to my mind, such as:

 

Hitachi’s EMIEW Robot Learns to Navigate Around the Office — from spectrum.ieee.org by Jason Falconer

 

Photo: Hitachi

Excerpt:

Now EMIEW 2 still relies on maps of its surroundings, but its navigation software has a new feature: It uses designated zones that make the robot change its speed and direction.

 

 

iRpobot Ava 500 

iRobotAva-2014

 

Excerpt:

Ava 500 enables this new dimension in telepresence with:

  • autonomous navigation and mobility – remote users simply specify a destination and the robot automatically navigates to the desired location without any human intervention.
  • standards-based videoconferencing – built-in Cisco Telepresence® solutions deliver enterprise-class security and reliability.
  • an easy-to-use client application – an iPad mini™ tablet enables remote users to schedule and control the robot.
  • scheduling and management -seamlessly handled through an iRobot managed cloud service.

 

 

 

Also see:

 

 

 

HowToBeHumanInADigitalSociety-April2014

 

 Excerpt:

‘Intelligent machines’ are increasingly interconnecting. The Internet of Things is imminent, with sensor networks and mobile devices connecting everyone and everything everywhere in the near future., Singularity’ – the moment of when machines become as capable as humans – is quickly becoming a buzzword that rivals Social Media. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is certain to play a role everywhere, and robots are dropping in price dramatically while gaining quickly in functionality and skills. Exponential technological progress is evident everywhere – but how will we – as linear beings – cope with this increasing empowerment of software and machines, the tremendous gain in the flow of real-time information, and the far-reaching implications that these developments will have? How will we keep up with thousands of real-time datafeeds, the ever-increasing volume, variety and depth of input, the tsunami of incoming communications and the rapidly improving smartness – and increasingly deep intelligence – of software, devices and machines? Will humans need to be ‘augmented’, soon, in order to keep up, and if so, where will this take us? What will happen to our ethics in a world of ultra-smart intelligent agents, artificial intelligence and the coming ‘trans-humanism’?

 

 
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