2018 October

This is how the Future Today Institute researches, models & maps the future & develops strategies

Also see what the Institute for the Future does in this regard

Foresight Tools
IFTF has pioneered tools and methods for building foresight ever since its founding days. Co-founder Olaf Helmer was the inventor of the Delphi Method, and early projects developed cross-impact analysis and scenario tools. Today, IFTF is methodologically agnostic, with a brimming toolkit that includes the following favorites…

From DSC:
How might higher education use this foresight workflow? How might we better develop a future-oriented mindset?

From my perspective, I think that we need to be pulse-checking a variety of landscapes, looking for those early signals. We need to be thinking about what should be on our radars. Then we need to develop some potential scenarios and strategies to deal with those potential scenarios if they occur. Graphically speaking, here’s an excerpted slide from my introductory piece for a NGLS 2017 panel that we did.

This resource regarding their foresight workflow was mentioned in a recent e-newsletter from the FTI where they mentioned this important item as well:

Climate change: a megatrend that impacts us all
Excerpt:
Earlier this week, the United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change issued a dire report [PDF]. To say the report is concerning would be a dramatic understatement. Models built by the scientists show that at our current rate, the atmosphere will warm as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius, leading to a dystopian future of food shortages, wildfires, extreme winters, a mass die-off of coral reefs and more –– as soon as 2040. That’s just 20 years away from now.

But China also decided to ban the import of foreign plastic waste –– which includes trash from around the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. alone could wind up with an extra 37 million metric tons of plastic waste, and we don’t have a plan for what to do with it all.

Immediate Futures Scenarios: Year 2019

Optimistic: Climate change is depoliticized. Leaders in the U.S., Brazil and elsewhere decide to be the heroes, and invest resources into developing solutions to our climate problem. We understand that fixing our futures isn’t only about foregoing plastic straws, but about systemic change. Not all solutions require regulation. Businesses and everyday people are incentivized to shift behavior. Smart people spend the next two decades collaborating on plausible solutions.
Pragmatic: Climate change continues to be debated, while extreme weather events cause damage to our power grid, wreak havoc on travel, cause school cancellations, and devastate our farms. The U.S. fails to work on realistic scenarios and strategies to combat the growing problem of climate change. More countries elect far-right leaders, who shun global environmental accords and agreements. By 2029, it’s clear that we’ve waited too long, and that we’re running out of time to adapt.
Catastrophic: A chorus of voices calling climate change a hoax grows ever louder in some of the world’s largest economies, whose leaders choose immediate political gain over longer-term consequences. China builds an environmental coalition of 100 countries within the decade, developing both green infrastructure while accumulating debt service. Beijing sets global standards emissions––and it locks the U.S out of trading with coalition members. Trash piles up in the U.S., which didn’t plan ahead for waste management. By 2040, our population centers have moved inland and further north, our farms are decimated, our lives are miserable.

Watchlist: United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; European Geosciences Union; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); NASA; Department of Energy; Department of Homeland Security; House Armed Services Sub-committee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities; Environmental Justice Foundation; Columbia University’s Earth Institute; University of North Carolina at Wilmington; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Jarvish’s smart motorcycle helmets will offer Alexa and Siri support and an AR display [Gartenberg]

On 10/06/2018, in Amazon, Apple, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning / Deep Learning / Algorithms, Augmented Reality (AR), emerging technologies, Google, innovation, Natural Language Processing (NLP), tools, trends, vendors, voice recognition / voice enabled interfaces, by Daniel Christian

Jarvish’s smart motorcycle helmets will offer Alexa and Siri support and an AR display — from the verge.com by Chaim Gartenberg

Excerpt:

The Jarvish X is the more basic of the two models. It offers integrated microphones and speakers for Siri, Google Assistant, and Alexa support so wearers have access things like directions, weather updates, and control music through voice control. There’s also a 2K, front-facing camera built into the helmet so you can record your ride. It’s set to cost $799 when it hits Kickstarter in January.

10 jobs that are safe in an AI world — from linkedin.com by Kai-Fu Lee

Excerpts:

Teaching
AI will be a great tool for teachers and educational institutions, as it will help educators figure out how to personalize curriculum based on each student’s competence, progress, aptitude, and temperament. However, teaching will still need to be oriented around helping students figure out their interests, teaching students to learn independently, and providing one-on-one mentorship. These are tasks that can only be done by a human teacher. As such, there will still be a great need for human educators in the future.

Criminal defense law
Top lawyers will have nothing to worry about when it comes to job displacement. reasoning across domains, winning the trust of clients, applying years of experience in the courtroom, and having the ability to persuade a jury are all examples of the cognitive complexities, strategies, and modes of human interaction that are beyond the capabilities of AI. However, a lot of paralegal and preparatory work like document review, analysis, creating contracts, handling small cases, packing cases, and coming up with recommendations can be done much better and more efficiently with AI. The costs of law make it worthwhile for AI companies to go after AI paralegals and AI junior lawyers, but not top lawyers.

From DSC:
In terms of teaching, I agree that while #AI will help personalize learning, there will still be a great need for human teachers, professors, and trainers. I also agree w/ my boss (and with some of the author’s viewpoints here, but not all) that many kinds of legal work will still need the human touch & thought processes. I diverge from his thinking in terms of scope — the need for human lawyers will go far beyond just lawyers involved in crim law.

Also see:

15 business applications for artificial intelligence and machine learning — from forbes.com

Excerpt:

Fifteen members of Forbes Technology Council discuss some of the latest applications they’ve found for AI/ML at their companies. Here’s what they had to say…

U.S. students spend more time working paid jobs than going to class — from bloomberg.com by Riley Griffin
Facing mounting debt, U.S. college students spend double the time working paid jobs than in the library.

Excerpts:

Haunted by costly degrees and insurmountable student debt, American college students now spend more time working paid jobs than in lectures, the library or studying at home.

The vast majority of current students—85 percent—work while enrolled, according to an HSBC survey published Thursday. Students spend an average of 4.2 hours a day working paid jobs, which is more than double the time they spend in the library, nearly two hours more than they spend in class and 1.4 hours more time than they spend studying at home.

Haunted by costly degrees and insurmountable student debt, American college students now spend more time working paid jobs than in lectures, the library or studying at home.

The vast majority of current students—85 percent—work while enrolled, according to an HSBC survey published Thursday. Students spend an average of 4.2 hours a day working paid jobs, which is more than double the time they spend in the library, nearly two hours more than they spend in class and 1.4 hours more time than they spend studying at home.

“The economics of the debt crisis have become a major distraction to students’ education,” said John Hupalo, founder and chief executive officer of Invite Education, an education financial planner. “Students’ first priority should be to get value out of their education, not squeezing out hours at a job in order to make money to sustain that education.”

From DSC:
Obviously, this could be a major problem for many students — depending upon whether their work experiences are paying off in terms of other kinds of learning/experiences/skills development/obtaining jobs later on. But this need to work to get through school is also why I think online education needs to be more prevalent in higher ed. If students need to work to obtain a degree, then they need the flexibility to make their class schedules jibe with their work schedules. As with healthcare, I’d also like to see us find ways to bring the costs down.

Also see:

One HBCU Hopes Its ‘$10,000 Degree Pathway’ Will Win Over Students Considering For-Profit Alternatives — from edsurge.com by Jeff Young

Excerpt:

A public university in North Carolina has teamed up with six community colleges to offer a program that promises students they will pay no more than $10,000 out of pocket for their four-year degree.

Participating students will attend a two-year college in the state to get their Associate’s degree, then transfer to an online program at Fayetteville State University to finish their bachelor’s. The students will continue to have access to mentors and resources at the local community college to help them stay on track.

Making College Affordable Remains a High Priority in Washington — from campustechnology.com by Sara Friedman
More states are providing free college tuition, but equity concerns remain when it comes to the costs of textbooks, transportation and housing.

What does the Top Tools for Learning 2018 list tell us about the future direction of L&D? — from modernworkplacelearning.com by Jane Hart

Excerpt:

But for me 3 key things jump out:

More and more people are learning for themselves – in whatever way that suits them best – whether it is finding resources or online courses on the Web or interacting with their professional network. And they do all this for a variety of reasons: to solve problems, self-improve and prepare themselves for the future, etc.
Learning at work is becoming more personal and continuous in that it is a key part of many professional’s working day. And what’s more people are not only organising their own learning activities, they are also indeed managing their own development too – either with (informal) digital notebooks, or with (formal) personal learning platforms.
But it is in team collaboration where most of their daily learning takes place, and many now recognise and value the social collaboration platforms that underpin their daily interactions with colleagues as part of their daily work.

In other words, many people now see workplace learning as not just something that happens irregularly in corporate training, but as a continuous and on demand activity.

From DSC:
Reminds me of tapping into — and contributing towards — streams of content. All the time. Continuous, lifelong learning.

For first time, iPhones & Apple Watches are enabling users to navigate full range of transactions both on & off campus

On 10/03/2018, in Apple, higher education, learning spaces, machine-to-machine communications, United States, universities, usability, user experience (UX), vendors, wearables, by Daniel Christian

Blackboard, Apple mobile student ID has arrived — from cr80news.com by Andrew Hudson
Mobile Credential officially goes live at launch campuses

Excerpt:

We’ve officially reached the kickoff of Blackboard’s long-standing vision for the mobile student ID. Starting today on the campuses of the University of Alabama, Duke University and the University of Oklahoma, Blackboard with the aid of Apple is enabling students to use mobile credentials everywhere their plastic ID card was previously accepted.

[On 10/2/18], for the first time, iPhones and Apple Watches are enabling users to navigate the full range of transactions both on and off campus. At these three launch institutions, students can add their official student ID card to Apple Wallet to make purchases, authenticate for privileges, as well as enable physical access to dorms, rec centers, libraries and academic buildings.

American Bar Association doubles online learning hours [National Jurist]

On 10/03/2018, in adult learning, career development, change, changing business models, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, distance education, higher education, law schools, legislatures / government / legal, online learning, pace of change, by Daniel Christian

ABA doubles online learning hours — page 6 of 40 from the National Jurist

Excerpt:

Law schools will have the option of offering up to 30 hours of online learning in their J.D. programs, doubling the previous limit of 15, under a new measure approved by the ABA in August. Also, for the first time, first year students will be permitted to take online classes — as many as 10 hours. The ABA has allowed a small number of variances in the past for schools to offer more robust online offerings. Mitchell Hamline School of Law in St. Paul, Minn., launched the nation’s first hybrid J.D. program in 2015. Southwestern Law School in Los Angeles and Syracuse University College of Law in upstate New York have received ABA approval for similar programs.

Such programs have been applauded because they allow for more non-traditional students to get law school educations. Students are only required to be on campus for short periods of time. That means they don’t have to live near the law school.

From DSC:
In 1998 Davenport University Online began offering 100% online-based courses. I joined them 3 years later, and I was part of a group of people who took DUO to the place where — when I left DUO in March 2007, we were offering ~50% of the total credit hours of the university in a 100% online-based format. Again, that was 15-20 years ago. DUO was joined by many other online-based programs from other community colleges and universities.

So what gives w/ the legal education area?

Well…the American Bar Association (ABA) comes to mind.

The ABA has been very restrictive on the use of online learning. Mounting pressure surely must be on the ABA to allow all kinds of variances in this area. Given the need for legal education to better deal with the exponential pace of technological innovation, the ABA has a responsibility to society to up their game and become far more responsive to the needs of law students.

From DSC: Can we please see a Saturday Night Live skit on this?

On 10/02/2018, in Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning / Deep Learning / Algorithms, career development, change, corporate / business world, Daniel S. Christian, staying relevant, student-related, UK, workplace, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
Can we please see a Saturday Night Live skit on this? It would be really interesting to see what happens to the AI based on certain facial expressions! 🙂

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Graduates are spending thousands of pounds on training to beat tough emotion-scanning robot interviewers for top City jobs.

Firms such as Goldman Sachs and Unilever are using artificial intelligence (AI) software to weed out candidates, as single advertised positions attract thousands of graduates.

Via a webcam, the software remotely asks preliminary-round candidates 20 minutes of questions and brain-teasers, and records eye movements, breathing patterns and any nervous tics.

From DSC:
But on a more serious note, getting by the Applicant Tracking Systems and AI’s of the world — in order to actually talk to a human being — is getting harder and harder to do.

Why giving kids a roadmap to their brain can make learning easier — from edsurge.com by Megan Nellis

Excerpts:

Learning, Down to a Science
Metacognition. Neuroplasticity. Retrieval Practice. Amygdala. These aren’t the normal words you’d expect to hear in a 15-year-old rural South African’s vocabulary. Here, though, it’s common talk. And why shouldn’t it be? Over the years, we’ve found youth are innately hungry to learn about the inner workings of their mind—where, why and how learning, thinking and decision-making happens. So, we teach them cognitive science.
…
Over the next three years, we teach students about the software and hardware of the brain. From Carol Dweck’s online Brainology curriculum, they learn about growth mindset, memory and mnemonics, the neural infrastructure of the brain. They learn how stress impacts learning and about neuroplasticity—or how the brain learns. From David Eagleman and Dan Siegel, they learn about the changing landscape of the adolescent brain and how novelty, emotionality and peer relationships aid in learning.
…
Pulling from books such as Make It Stick and How We Learn, we pointedly teach students about the science behind retrieval practice, metacognition and other strategies. We expressly use them in our classes so students see and experience the direct impact, and we also dedicate a whole class in our program for students to practice applying these strategies toward their own academic learning from school.

Choice: The key to reaching every student [Graves]

On 10/01/2018, in education technology, flipping -- inverted learning, ideas, K-12 related, more voice more choice more control, motivation, pedagogy, personalized/customized learning, student teaching/teacher education, student-related, tools, youth, by Daniel Christian

Choice: The key to reaching every student — from flr.flglobal.org by Terra Graves

Excerpt:

Who doesn’t like to have a choice? This seems like a no-brainer to me. Whenever teachers can give their students choices in their learning process, everyone wins. When we have options, we tend to have more ownership of that experience. It also provides us with a sense of control, which most students do not experience in school. In her article on facultyfocus.com, Elizabeth Betsy Lasley EdD writes, “When students are asked to interpret, construct, and demonstrate their concepts or ideas regarding specific course concepts from a selection of product or performance options, content retention, commitment, motivation, and creativity increase.” Flipped Learning environments are ripe for offering choices to students in how they consume content and how they express their learning outcomes. Giving students choice allows us to reach every student, every day because it honors their individuality. Cassie Shoemaker explains it simply in her article Let it go: Giving students choices, “When teachers give students choices as to how they will show what they have learned, students become better problems solvers, more creative, and more engaged.” Problem-solving: It’s not just for math! Students NEED to have opportunities to make decisions in school to learn to make decisions in life. If we continue to spoonfeed and micromanage our students, they won’t learn to figure things out on their own. Teachers by nature tend to be control freaks (including me). However, when we allow our students to try/fail/try again, we support their growth and confidence.

3 trends shaping the future world of work — from hrtechnologist.com by Becky Frankiewicz, President of Manpower Group North America

Excerpt:

In a world of constant change, continuity has given way to adaptability. It’s no secret the world of work has changed. Yet today it’s changing faster than ever before.

The impact of technology means new skills and new roles are emerging as fast as others become extinct.

My career path is a case in point. When I entered high school, I intended to follow a linear career path similar to generations before me. Pick a discipline, get a degree, commit to it, retire. Now in my fourth career, that’s not how it worked out, and I’m glad. In fact, the only true constant I’ve had is constant learning. Because success in the future won’t be defined by performance, but by potential and the ability to learn, apply and adapt.

From Jobs for Life to Skills for Life
Each day we see firsthand technology’s impact on jobs. 65% of the jobs my three daughters will do don’t even exist yet. Employability is less about what you already know and more about your capacity to learn. It requires a new mindset for us to develop a workforce with the right skillsets, and for individuals seeking to advance their careers. We need to be ready to help upskill and reskill people for new jobs and new roles.

Learning Ecosystems

How to research, model & map the future & develop strategies [Future Today Institute]

Jarvish’s smart motorcycle helmets will offer Alexa and Siri support and an AR display [Gartenberg]

Reflections on “10 jobs that are safe in an AI world” [Lee]

For first time, iPhones & Apple Watches are enabling users to navigate full range of transactions both on & off campus

American Bar Association doubles online learning hours [National Jurist]

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