future

How ChatGPT is going to change the future of work and our approach to education — from livemint.com

From DSC:
I thought that the article made a good point when it asserted:

The pace of technological advancement is booming aggressively and conversations around ChatGPT snatching away jobs are becoming more and more frequent. The future of work is definitely going to change and that makes it clear that the approach toward education is also demanding a big shift.
…
A report from Dell suggests that 85% of jobs that will be around in 2030 do not exist yet. The fact becomes important as it showcases that the jobs are not going to vanish, they will just change and most of the jobs by 2030 will be new.

The Future of Human Agency — from pewresearch.org by Janna Anderson and Lee Rainie

Excerpt:

Thus the question: What is the future of human agency? Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center asked experts to share their insights on this; 540 technology innovators, developers, business and policy leaders, researchers, academics and activists responded. Specifically, they were asked:

By 2035, will smart machines, bots and systems powered by artificial intelligence be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making that is relevant to their lives?

The results of this nonscientific canvassing:

- 56% of these experts agreed with the statement that by 2035 smart machines, bots and systems will not be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making.
- 44% said they agreed with the statement that by 2035 smart machines, bots and systems will be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making.

What are the things humans really want agency over? When will they be comfortable turning to AI to help them make decisions? And under what circumstances will they be willing to outsource decisions altogether to digital systems?

The next big threat to AI might already be lurking on the web — from zdnet.com by Danny Palmer; via Sam DeBrule
Artificial intelligence experts warn attacks against datasets used to train machine-learning tools are worryingly cheap and could have major consequences.

Excerpts:

Data poisoning occurs when attackers tamper with the training data used to create deep-learning models. This action means it’s possible to affect the decisions that the AI makes in a way that is hard to track.

By secretly altering the source information used to train machine-learning algorithms, data-poisoning attacks have the potential to be extremely powerful because the AI will be learning from incorrect data and could make ‘wrong’ decisions that have significant consequences.

Why AI Won’t Cause Unemployment — from pmarca.substack.com by Marc Andreessen

Excerpt:

Normally I would make the standard arguments against technologically-driven unemployment — see good summaries by Henry Hazlitt (chapter 7) and Frédéric Bastiat (his metaphor directly relevant to AI). And I will come back and make those arguments soon. But I don’t even think the standand arguments are needed, since another problem will block the progress of AI across most of the economy first.

Which is: AI is already illegal for most of the economy, and will be for virtually all of the economy.

How do I know that? Because technology is already illegal in most of the economy, and that is becoming steadily more true over time.

How do I know that? Because:

From DSC:
And for me, it boils down to an inconvenient truth: What’s the state of our hearts and minds?

AI, ChatGPT, Large Language Models (LLMs), and the like are tools. How we use such tools varies upon what’s going on in our hearts and minds. A fork can be used to eat food. It can also be used as a weapon. I don’t mean to be so blunt, but I can’t think of another way to say it right now.

Do we care about one another…really?
Has capitalism gone astray?
Have our hearts, our thinking, and/or our mindsets gone astray?
Do the products we create help or hurt others? It seems like too many times our perspective is, “We will sell whatever they will buy, regardless of its impact on others — as long as it makes us money and gives us the standard of living that we want.” Perhaps we could poll some former executives from Philip Morris on this topic.
Or we will develop this new technology because we can develop this new technology. Who gives a rat’s tail about the ramifications of it?

Leaders who practice foresight stay ahead of the innovation curve [tfsx.com]

On 03/03/2023, in business, business side of he, future, innovation, leadership, organizational change, pace of change, skills, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

Leaders who practice foresight stay ahead of the innovation curve — from tfsx.com

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

According to famed futurist Richard Slaughter, foresight (also known as futures thinking or futuring) is “the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organizational ways.”² In other words, foresight is a way to examine the paths the future might take, using qualitative and quantitative metrics, and then use the insights gained from this analysis to navigate our uncertain and changing world with purpose.

“The art and science of futuring is fast becoming a necessary skill, where we read signals, see trends and ruthlessly test our own assumptions…Like the ability to make a budget or think critically, it’s a skill that anyone who has to make long-range decisions should, and can, acquire.”³

From DSC:
The development of these futuring skills needs to begin in K-12 and continue into vocational programs as well as in college.

Also relevant/see:

The future isn’t what it used to be: Here’s how strategic foresight can help — from weforum.org

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Three-quarters (75%) of organizations are not prepared for the pace of change in and around their industry.
Across sectors, we all need to rethink how we operate to both survive and thrive in the future.
Foresight can help individuals and organizations be more future prepared, innovative and agile.

The exponential pace of change

Unboxing the Future of Education: A Sneak Peek into a Day in the Life of a Student in 2040 [Cailey]

On 03/01/2023, in change, education, education technology, future, ideas, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, K-12 related, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning Experience Design, student-related, teachers, technology (general), youth, by Daniel Christian

Unboxing the Future of Education:“A Sneak Peek into a Day in the Life of a Student in 2040” — from thinklearningstudio.org by Russell Cailey

Excerpts:

To explore this question, I collaborated with my new friend Chat GPT to create a concept of what a day in the life of a 2040 student might look like. The results were fascinating, providing a glimpse into the possible future of education.

In response to our collaborative moment, I would like to pose three guiding questions to the audience:

How might we re-imagine education to create a more holistic and meaningful learning experience for our students as we move forward towards 2040?

How might we cultivate a sense of curiosity, wonder, and creativity in our students, and how might this foster a deeper engagement with learning?

How might we expand the definition of “education” beyond the confines of the classroom and foster lifelong learning and growth in our students?

From DSC:
I appreciated this interesting thought experiment re: the future of learning in the year 2040. I appreciate Russell’s statement where he says:

To conduct a thorough and accurate foresight project, it is crucial to explore multiple potential futures. While the scenario presented here is intended to be playful and imaginative, it represents only one possible outcome among many. I encourage readers to share their scenarios and perspectives in the comments, as this will help to create a more robust and diverse exploration of the future.

“Before ChatGPT and After GPT” [Makadia] + other AI and ChatGPT-related items

On 02/28/2023, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, emerging technologies, future, health, Natural Language Processing (NLP), tools, usability, user experience (UX), Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, vision/possibilities, voice recognition / voice enabled interfaces, XR - extended reality, by Daniel Christian

Before ChatGPT ??

Research:
Read articles from multiple sites.

Marketing:
Read articles from multiple sites.

Copywriting:
Read articles from multiple sites.

After ChatGPT ??

Do Anything:
Ask the right prompts [ The most valuable skill in 2023 ]

— Harsh Makadia (@MakadiaHarsh) February 23, 2023

9 ways ChatGPT will help CIOs — from enterprisersproject.com by Katie Sanders
What are the potential benefits of this popular tool? Experts share how it can help CIOs be more efficient and bring competitive differentiation to their organizations.

Excerpt:

Don’t assume this new technology will replace your job. As Mark Lambert, a senior consultant at netlogx, says, “CIOs shouldn’t view ChatGPT as a replacement for humans but as a new and exciting tool that their IT teams can utilize. From troubleshooting IT issues to creating content for the company’s knowledge base, artificial intelligence can help teams operate more efficiently and effectively.”

ChatGPT has limits.

But there are tools that doesn’t have.

Here’re 8 AI tools you should know about in 2023:

Via lhtesham Haider

— Steve Nouri (@SteveNouri) February 24, 2023

Would you let ChatGPT control your smart home? — from theverge.com by

While the promise of an inherently competent, eminently intuitive voice assistant — a flawless butler for your home — is very appealing, I fear the reality could be more Space Odyssey than Downton Abbey. But let’s see if I’m proven wrong.

How ChatGPT Is Being Used To Enhance VR Training — from vrscout.com by Kyle Melnick

Excerpt:

The company claims that its VR training program can be used to prepare users for a wide variety of challenging scenarios, whether you’re a recent college graduate preparing for a difficult job interview or a manager simulating a particularly tough performance review. Users can customize their experiences depending on their role and receive real-time feedback based on their interactions with the AI.

From DSC:
Below are some example topics/articles involving healthcare and AI.

Role of AI in Healthcare — from doctorsexplain.media
The role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare is becoming increasingly important as technology advances. AI has the potential to revolutionize the healthcare industry, from diagnosis and treatment to patient care and management. AI can help healthcare providers make more accurate diagnoses, reduce costs, and improve patient outcomes.

60% of patients uncomfortable with AI in healthcare settings, survey finds — from healthcaredive.com by Hailey Mensik

Dive Brief:

About six in 10 U.S. adults said they would feel uncomfortable if their provider used artificial intelligence tools to diagnose them and recommend treatments in a care setting, according to a survey from the Pew Research Center.
Some 38% of respondents said using AI in healthcare settings would lead to better health outcomes while 33% said it would make them worse, and 27% said it wouldn’t make much of a difference, the survey found.
Ultimately, men, younger people and those with higher education levels were the most open to their providers using AI.

The Rise of the Superclinician – How Voice AI Can Improve the Employee Experience in Healthcare — from medcitynews.com by Tomer Garzberg
Voice AI is the new frontier in healthcare. With its constantly evolving landscape, the healthcare […]

Excerpt:

Voice AI can generate up to 30% higher clinician productivity, by automating these healthcare use cases

Updating records
Provider duress
Platform orchestration
Shift management
Client data handoff
Home healthcare
Maintenance
Equipment ordering
Meal preferences
Case data queries
Patient schedules
Symptom logging
Treatment room setup
Patient condition education
Patient support recommendations
Medication advice
Incident management
… and many more

ChatGPT is poised to upend medical information. For better and worse. — from usatoday.com by Karen Weintraub

Excerpt:

But – and it’s a big “but” – the information these digital assistants provide might be more inaccurate and misleading than basic internet searches.

“I see no potential for it in medicine,” said Emily Bender, a linguistics professor at the University of Washington. By their very design, these large-language technologies are inappropriate sources of medical information, she said.

Others argue that large language models could supplement, though not replace, primary care.

“A human in the loop is still very much needed,” said Katie Link, a machine learning engineer at Hugging Face, a company that develops collaborative machine learning tools.

Link, who specializes in health care and biomedicine, thinks chatbots will be useful in medicine someday, but it isn’t yet ready.

Planning for AGI and beyond — from OpenAI.org by Sam Altman

Excerpt:

There are several things we think are important to do now to prepare for AGI.

First, as we create successively more powerful systems, we want to deploy them and gain experience with operating them in the real world. We believe this is the best way to carefully steward AGI into existence—a gradual transition to a world with AGI is better than a sudden one. We expect powerful AI to make the rate of progress in the world much faster, and we think it’s better to adjust to this incrementally.

A gradual transition gives people, policymakers, and institutions time to understand what’s happening, personally experience the benefits and downsides of these systems, adapt our economy, and to put regulation in place. It also allows for society and AI to co-evolve, and for people collectively to figure out what they want while the stakes are relatively low.

*AGI stands for Artificial General Intelligence

It’s Not Just Our Students — ChatGPT Is Coming for Faculty Writing [Chrisinger]

On 02/27/2023, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, adjunct faculty, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, colleges, community colleges, education technology, faculty/staff, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, research, tools, United States, universities, vendors, by Daniel Christian

It’s Not Just Our Students — ChatGPT Is Coming for Faculty Writing — from chronicle.com by Ben Chrisinger (behind a paywall)
And there’s little agreement on the rules that should govern it.

Excerpt:

While we’ve been busy worrying about what ChatGPT could mean for students, we haven’t devoted nearly as much attention to what it could mean for academics themselves. And it could mean a lot. Critically, academics disagree on exactly how AI can and should be used. And with the rapidly improving technology at our doorstep, we have little time to deliberate.

Already some researchers are using the technology. Among only the small sample of my work colleagues, I’ve learned that it is being used for such daily tasks as: translating code from one programming language to another, potentially saving hours spent searching web forums for a solution; generating plain-language summaries of published research, or identifying key arguments on a particular topic; and creating bullet points to pull into a presentation or lecture.

From DSC:
It seems to me that the idea of a Trim Tab Group goes waaaaay back. And from an excellent teacher — the LORD.

Mark 2:21 — from bible.com

“No one sews a patch of unshrunk cloth on an old garment. Otherwise, the new piece will pull away from the old, making the tear worse.”

So the idea of starting a small, different group that will grow into an amazingly large group of people may turn out to be the route that the invention of a new lifelong learning ecosystem will need to go through.

Reflections on “Why The Education Economy Is The Next Big Thing For The American Workforce” [Busteed]

On 02/22/2023, in business, career development, change, changing business models, collaboration, colleges, communities of practice, community colleges, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, Design Thinking, education, education reform, Emotion, engagement / engaging students, entrepreneurship, experimentation, future, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, ideas, K-12 related, leadership, learning, learning ecosystem, Learning Experience Design, legislatures / government / legal, lifelong learning, motivation, participation, passions, traditional / tradition, training / L&D, United States, universities, by Daniel Christian

Why The Education Economy Is The Next Big Thing For The American Workforce — from fastcompany.com by Brandon Busteed
How can integrating our educational system, our employers, and our job creators affect our modern economy?

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

Though the economy and education have long been topics of top concern to Americans, we haven’t created strong linkages between the two.

The topics are more like two castles with a large moat between them. Yet there is nothing more important we can do as a country than to build the world’s most effective “educonomy,” which would seamlessly integrate our educational system, our employers, and our job creators.
…
All told, we collected the voices of close to 1 million Americans on this subject in the past year alone. And what we’ve learned is alarming:

Student engagement in school drops precipitously from 5th grade through 12th grade. About three quarters of elementary school kids (76%) are engaged in school, while only 44% of high school kids are engaged. The longer students stay in school, the less engaged they become. If we were doing this right, the trend would be going in the exact opposite direction.

From DSC:
I appreciated the imagery of the economy and education being like two castles with a large moat between them. I, like many others, also use the term siloed to describe our various learning ecosystems — PreK-12, higher education and vocational programming, and the corporate/business world (I realize I could also include those who work in other areas such as the government, but hopefully folks get the gist of what I’m trying to say).

But here’s the most disturbing part (albeit likely not a surprise to those working within K-12 environments):

About seven in 10 K-12 teachers are not engaged in their work (69%), and as a profession, teachers are dead last among all professions Gallup studied in saying their “opinions count” at work and their “supervisors create an open and trusting environment.” We also found that teacher engagement is the most important driver of student engagement. We’ll never improve student engagement until we boost teachers’ own workplace engagement first.

Our older daughter works in an elementary school where several of the teachers left prior to Christmas and more have announced that they are leaving after this academic year. For teachers to leave halfway through the year, you know something is majorly wrong!

I think that legislators are part of the problem, as they straight-jacket teachers, principals, and administrators with all kinds of standardized testing.

Standardized testing is like a wrecking ball on our educational systems -- impacting things like our students' and teachers' sense of joy, play, wonder, and motivation

I would think that such testing dictates the pace and the content and the overall agendas out there. I don’t recall taking nearly as many standardized tests as our youth do today. Looking back, each of my teachers was engaged and seemed to be happy and enthusiastic. I don’t think that’s the case any longer. Let’s ask the teachers — not the legislators — why that is the case and what they would recommend to change things (before it’s too late).

Instructional Design 2023: Experts Share Top Predictions [Thompson]

On 02/21/2023, in career development, change, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, future, instructional design, microlearning, skills, training / L&D, trends, vendors, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Instructional Design 2023: Experts Share Top Predictions — from td.org by Jes Thompson

“As technology options continue to increase for IDs, they’ll have a lot to choose from to create useful learning experiences. To prove our worth to the organizations we work for, it will be more important than ever to focus on the solution rather than the technology—especially as layoffs continue in the tech industry. Hopefully we’ll see a greater presence in events and online networks as people try to find new roles. I think we’ll continue to see an influx of educators coming into the profession too. As a field, we’re in a great place to learn from the experience of others and to use technology to find innovative ways to support our learners.”

—Heidi Kirby, Customer Education Manager and Co-Founder, Useful Stuff

“I think we’ll continue to see an influx of educators coming into the profession too.” — which brings me to another article:

Edtech Career Opportunities: 7 Tips To Stand Out At A Job Fair — from teachercareercoach.com

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

Are you a transitioning teacher looking for an edtech career? If so, you’re in luck! Jeff Patterson, the CEO of Gaggle, hosts virtual Edtech Career Fairs.
…
This is a great chance to learn about the edtech industry and connect with key players. So, grab your pen and paper and get ready to take notes! We’ll be sharing some insight to help you make the most of your experience and stand out from the crowd. Let’s get started!

Podcast Special: Using Generative AI in Education — from drphilippahardman.substack.com by Dr. Philippa Hardman
An exploration of the risks and benefits of Generative AI in education, in conversation with Mike Palmer

Excerpt:

Among other things, we discussed:

The immediate challenges that Generative AI presents for learning designers, educators and students.
The benefits & opportunities that Generative AI might offer the world of education, both in terms of productivity and pedagogy.
How bringing together the world of AI and the world of learning science, we might revolutionise the way we design and deliver learning experiences.

Speaking of podcasts, this article lists some podcasts to check out for those working in — or interested in — higher education.

Also relevant/see:

Teachers: Treat ChatGPT as Your Assistant, Not Your Enemy — from by Maria Andersen

Also relevant/see:

Are librarians the next prompt engineers? — from linkedin.com by Laura Solomon

Excerpt:

Without the right prompt, AI fails to provide what someone might be looking for. This probably is a surprise to no one, especially librarians. If you remember the days before Google, you know exactly how this tended to play out. Google became dominant in large part to its inherent ability to accept natural language queries.
A small industry is now popping up to provide people with the correct, detailed prompts to get what they want when interacting with AI. The people doing this work are referred to as “prompt engineers.”
Prompt engineers aren’t just people who write queries to be directed to an AI. They also have tend to have a great deal of technical expertise and a deep understanding of how artificial intelligences and natural language can intersect.
Prompt engineers don’t work for free.

The above item links to The Most Important Job Skill of This Century — from theatlantic.com by Charlie Warzel
Your work future could depend on how well you can talk to AI.

Also relevant/see:

My class required AI. Here’s what I’ve learned so far. — from oneusefulthing.substack.com by Ethan Mollick
(Spoiler alert: it has been very successful, but there are some lessons to be learned)

Excerpt:

I fully embraced AI for my classes this semester, requiring students to use AI tools in a number of ways. This policy attracted a lot of interest, and I thought it worthwhile to reflect on how it is going so far. The short answer is: great! But I have learned some early lessons that I think are worth passing on.

AI is everywhere already
Even if I didn’t embrace AI, it is also clear that AI is now everywhere in classes. For example, students used it to help them come up with ideas for class projects, even before I even taught them how to do that. As a result, the projects this semester are much better than previous pre-AI classes. This has led to greater project success rates and more engaged teams. On the downside, I find students also raise their hands to ask questions less. I suspect this might be because, as one of them told me, they can later ask ChatGPT to explain things they didn’t get without needing to speak in front of the class. The world of teaching is now more complicated in ways that are exciting, as well as a bit unnerving.

Making Change: How America’s Workforce is Responding to Rising Costs [guildeducation.com]

On 02/21/2023, in adult learning, business, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, economics, funding / grants, future, reinvent, society, staying relevant, surviving, United States, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Making Change: How America’s Workforce is Responding to Rising Costs — from insights.guildeducation.com

Taken together, the results show an American workforce focused on the long-term. Workers are managing to costs, but more than that, they’re making down payments on their future. This is a workforce motivated more than ever by a path to career growth and economic stability.

What the workforce wants in 2023 -- looking for more education, training, and long-term stability

Why Many Early Childhood Educators Can’t Afford to Retire [Tate Sullivan]

On 02/14/2023, in career development, Emotion, funding / grants, future, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Why Many Early Childhood Educators Can’t Afford to Retire — from edsurge.com by Emily Tate Sullivan

Excerpt:

It’s a bitter contradiction that spans the field: The job is a difficult one to do into old age, yet few who stick with it are able to set aside enough money to enjoy a traditional retirement.
…
For child care providers to come away with even the slimmest of profit margins, they are often already charging families the maximum they can afford to pay, explains Powell. And that’s before providers have built in a buffer to cover an emergency fund, health insurance and retirement savings.

At a certain age, you’re not going to catch up. You won’t own a home. You won’t have retirement savings.

— Anna Powell

“Even by the time they’re in their 50s, they may not be able to start a savings account,” Powell says. “They’re still hitting that ceiling of what parents can afford to pay.”

Preparing Today’s Students for the Future Workforce — from rdene915.com by Rachelle Dené Poth

Excerpt:

Today’s high school students are the future of our workforce. Before long they will be in college or starting full-time jobs of their own. But how are today’s students preparing for their futures? What will the workforce look like when these students move on to the next stage of their lives?

Schools, districts, and even state education departments provide various programs for students to gain relevant work experience and gain necessary skills outside of the classroom.

What Are These Programs?
There are a number of school-based programs that support student growth through work such as…

Also relevant/see:

One Foot in the Future — from the BIG questions institute

As an excerpt from an email describing this new/free ebook, Homa Tavangar and Will Richardson write:

We need a fresh set of tools, frameworks, and lenses if we are to meet the future effectively.

With this new ebook, “One Foot in the Future,” we’re charting a different path forward, introducing readers to things like:

Design Fiction – A tool to help us become “archeologists of the future” and help us
Regenerative Learning – A lens that helps us see our work as it impacts all living things
Schoolpunk – A movement and a community to help imagine the future of education together.

And much more.

Our sense is that there is growing appetite to get out of the traditional school box and to design a more aspirational future. This new ebook is a great starting point for anyone who wants to do just that.

ChatGPT sets record for fastest-growing user base – analyst note — from reuters.com by Krystal Hu

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Feb 1 (Reuters) – ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI, is estimated to have reached 100 million monthly active users in January, just two months after launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history, according to a UBS study on Wednesday.

The report, citing data from analytics firm Similarweb, said an average of about 13 million unique visitors had used ChatGPT per day in January, more than double the levels of December.

“In 20 years following the internet space, we cannot recall a faster ramp in a consumer internet app,” UBS analysts wrote in the note.

From DSC:
This reminds me of the current exponential pace of change that we are experiencing…

..and how we struggle with that kind of pace.

Five Predictions for the Future of Learning in the Age of AI [Lee Skates]

On 02/10/2023, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, assessment, credentialing, education technology, emerging technologies, experimentation, future, personalized/customized learning, United States, vendors, by Daniel Christian

Five Predictions for the Future of Learning in the Age of AI — from a16z.com by Anne Lee Skates

Excerpts:

Seeing as education is one of AI’s first consumer use cases, and programs like ChatGPT are how millions of kids, teachers, and administrators will be introduced to AI, it is critical that we pay attention to the applications of AI and its implications for our lives. Below, we explore five predictions for AI and the future of learning, knowledge, and education.

Learning Ecosystems

Leaders who practice foresight stay ahead of the innovation curve [tfsx.com]

Instructional Design 2023: Experts Share Top Predictions [Thompson]

Making Change: How America’s Workforce is Responding to Rising Costs [guildeducation.com]

Why Many Early Childhood Educators Can’t Afford to Retire [Tate Sullivan]

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