The number of 18-year-olds is about to drop sharply, packing a wallop for colleges — and the economy — from hechingerreport.org by Jon Marcus
America is about to go over the ‘demographic cliff’

That’s because the current class of high school seniors is the last before a long decline begins in the number of 18-year-olds — the traditional age of students when they enter college.

This so-called demographic cliff has been predicted ever since Americans started having fewer babies at the advent of the Great Recession around the end of 2007 — a falling birth rate that has not recovered since, except for a slight blip after the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

Demographers say it will finally arrive in the fall of this year. That’s when recruiting offices will begin to confront the long-anticipated drop-off in the number of applicants from among the next class of high school seniors.

“A few hundred thousand per year might not sound like a lot,” Strohl said. “But multiply that by a decade and it has a big impact.”

From DSC:
I remember seeing graphics about this demographic cliff over a decade ago…so institutions of traditional higher education have seen this coming for many years now (and the article references this as well). But it’s still important and the ramifications of this could be significant for many colleges and universities out there (for students, faculty, staff, and administrations).

  • Will there be new business models?
  • More lifelong learning models?
  • Additions to the curricula?

I sure hope so.

Higher Ed’s Governance Problem — from chronicle.com by Brian Rosenberg; via Ryan Craig
Boards are bloated and ineffectual.

According to the Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges, the average size of a private nonprofit college or university board is 28 (larger than a major-league baseball roster), though boards of elite colleges tend to skew even larger: closer to 40, according to a study done by McKinsey.
…
By way of comparison, the average size of the board of directors of a publicly traded company in the United States is nine. If that seems too “corporate,” consider that the average size of the board of a nonprofit health-care institution is 13…

Still, anyone who studies organizational effectiveness would tell you that college and university boards are much too large, as would almost any college or university president when speaking off the record. Getting 12 people to spend significant time studying serious challenges and then reaching consensus about how to tackle those challenges is a heavy lift. Doing this with 25 or 35 or 45 people is close to impossible.

From Google ads to NFL sponsorships: Colleges throw billions at marketing themselves to attract students — from hechingerreport.org by Jon Marcus
Marketing and branding are getting big budgets and advertising is setting new records

In fact, the sum is small compared to what other colleges and universities are investing in advertising, marketing and promotion, which has been steadily rising and is on track this year to be nearly double what it was last year.

Among the reasons are a steep ongoing decline in enrollment, made worse by the pandemic, and increasing competition from online providers and others.

“Private schools in particular are acutely conscious of the demographics in this country. They’re competing for students, and marketing is how you have to do that.”

John Garvey, president, Catholic University

From DSC:
And for you students out there, check this sound advice out!