What 3 credit ratings agencies forecast for higher ed in 2026 — from highereddive.com by Ben Unglesbee
Fitch Ratings, S&P Global and Moody’s Ratings all predicted a tough year ahead, pointing to deteriorating financial conditions and heightened uncertainty.
Fitch Ratings labeled its higher ed financial outlook for 2026 as “deteriorating” while Moody’s Ratings described an “increasingly difficult and shifting operating environment for colleges and universities.” Similarly, S&P Global Ratings said it expects“mounting operating pressures and uncertainty” ahead for the sector’s nonprofit institutions.
Analysts cited additional disruption and belt-tightening ahead in the new year, from predicted demographic declines to pressures on international enrollment to uncertainties about how Republicans’ big spending bill passed this summer will impact demand for college.
Below are the various takes on higher ed in 2026 by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings:
Ground-level Impacts of the Changing Landscape of Higher Education — from onedtech.philhillaa.com by Glenda Morgan; emphasis DSC
Evidence from the Virginia Community College System
In that spirit, in this post I examine a report from Virginia’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) on Virginia’s Community Colleges and the changing higher-education landscape. The report offers a rich view of how several major issues are evolving at the institutional level over time, an instructive case study in big changes and their implications.
Its empirical depth also prompts broader questions we should ask across higher education.
- What does the shift toward career education and short-term training mean for institutional costs and funding?
- How do we deliver effective student supports as enrollment moves online?
- As demand shifts away from on-campus learning, do physical campuses need to get smaller?
- Are we seeing a generalizable movement from academic programs to CTE to short-term options? If so, what does that imply for how community colleges are staffed and funded?
- As online learning becomes a larger, permanent share of enrollment, do student services need a true bimodal redesign, built to serve both online and on-campus students effectively? Evidence suggests this urgent question is not being addressed, especially in cash-strapped community colleges.
- As online learning grows, what happens to physical campuses? Improving space utilization likely means downsizing, which carries other implications. Campuses are community anchors, even for online students—so finding the right balance deserves serious debate.
Higher ed’s ‘hunker-down mindset’ — from open-campus-dispatch.beehiiv.com by Colleen Murphy
A tight housing market and a fragile job market mean those working in higher ed have fewer options than ever.
Faculty and administrators could be just as constrained by the golden handcuffs of a 2% interest rate as everybody else. That makes them less likely to move for a new job, Kelchen said, especially since they’re unlikely to get the type of salary increase they’d need to offset more pricey mortgage payments. Plus, even finding an affordable house in the first place could be a challenge right now.
All of this contributes to what Kelchen called a “hunker-down mindset” in higher ed.
“Even if the institutions are giving out pay raises, the pay raises aren’t matching housing costs,” Kelchen said. “And then that creates a pressure to stay.”
While that might seem like a “first-world problem,” it also affects college and university staff members, Kelchen told me. Often the only way for staff members to make more money is to move universities — there aren’t the same in-house growth opportunities as there are for faculty. But that’s easier said than done.








