20 Forecasts for 2011-2025 — from the World Future Society
Trends and breakthroughs likely to affect your work, your investments, and your family

From DSC:
The following portion of the text really jumped out at me, and loyal followers of this blog will recognize the graphics (below) that I occasionally post re: this accelerating pace of change:

The rate of change is accelerating.

Today, it’s as if we’re driving 200 miles an hour and only looking out of the rear-view mirror.

 

The pace has changed significantly and quickly

 

or perhaps this one…

 
From Daniel S. Christian

 

 

 

 

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From DSC:
First, a word of caution. Due to the content of some of the stations available herein, I would recommend that only those people who are 18 or older visit this site.

 

 

WorldTV.com

Connected TV Summit: TV apps and second screen strategies — from tvgenious.net by Emma Wells

Excerpts (emphasis by DSC — especially as it relates to education & learning-based apps):

Connected TV has been around for a while, and 2010 has seen connected devices, especially smartphones, go mainstream.  One of the key highlights of today’s Summit was the fact that the second screen is becoming an important part of the TV environment.

New consumer behaviour patterns and the rapid pace of technology have given birth to TV everywhere strategies, companion apps, TV apps, and VoD adoption.

The TV App Experience

At the event, it was hypothesised that “consumers are starting to redefine what they see as television”. This is good news for TV app developers, as they seek to mould a new, modern, TV experience.

TV apps are seen as an ideal way to hand control over to the viewers.  Additionally, TV apps can be used as the gateway to personalised viewing, and social media-integrated content. According to BT’s Andy Heselwood, the connected TV winner will be “the company who makes the shared TV experience personal. How to do this effectively without cluttering the TV screen and ruining the “lean back” experience still remains to be seen.

The main benefit of TV apps is that they are lightfooted and require substantially less effort to update than the set top box (STB) or TV. This means that lifecycles can be accelerated, and there is more room for experimentation and development. During the summit, Siemens even went so far as to say that  TV apps on connected TVs can “throw the set top box out of your operations plan”.  If true, this prediction could spell trouble for STB manufacturers.

Schooling past “sell-by” date says Education Fast Forward — from agent4change.net by (emphasis below from DSC)
Bill Hicks sat in on the second gathering of Promethean’s influential global education think tank

Jean-Yves Charlier

Jean-Yves Charlier

It was billed as a debate on “Productivity in Education”, but the second Education Fast Forward global forum ended with near-consensus on a radical proposition: that, when it comes to maximising the potential of students, schooling as we know it is well past its sell-by date.

The conclusions of the 32 distinguished innovators taking part in the live online debate from 19 locations across six continents, differed only in the degree to which they would change or replace existing structures.

Introducing the event, Promethean’s CEO Jean-Yves Charlier underlined the urgency of the issue: “It’s obvious the world has profoundly changed with the recession,” he said, “and while governments race ahead to fix problems created in the short term, I think we all agree that education has to be a fundamental pillar for economic growth in future. So this debate about the effectiveness and efficiency of education systems is a very important one.”

“In the past perhaps it was OK for education to move slowly… but the world is changing more quickly than education itself,” he said. The recession made change all the more crucial – but at the same time it would be more difficult to convince the decision-makers in government to invest in change: “Yet unless we get that magic way forward, people will say we can’t afford it. I’m worried we don’t get to the point where we can convince people this is achievable.”

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The future of television: Why you won’t recognize your television just a few years from now — from iptvmagazine.com by Scott Puopolo, Cisco

Excerpt:

Imagine you are watching a program on your refrigerator. You browse through the program choices using hand gestures. When you walk into the bathroom, the display of your program automatically transfers to the display inside the bathroom mirror.

Does this seem farfetched? All of these capabilities are here now and research gathered by the Cisco “Internet Business Solutions Group” (IBSG) from manufacturers, content producers, service broadcasters and academic experts identifies amazing predictions of what is going to happen in the TV industry and when these changes are likely to occur.

Analysis of the research shows that the three main influences to these events happening include technology, consumer behavior and business models. Multiple supporting technologies have emerged including displays (digital paper and projection devices), ultra-high bandwidth connections and new types of human interfaces (sensory devices). The ways consumers discover and consume media are changing including using social networks (Digg) and on demand content (YouTube), and participating in the creation of TV programs. Business models are changing from pushing a limited number of linear based channels to aggregating many content sources (NetFlix), recommending relevant programs, and adapting media for specific viewers (personalized ads on Facebook). Using this information, the IBSG has identified 10 Predictions for the future of TV.

From DSC:
Netflix reinvents itself — to its own benefit and to Blockbuster’s downfall.  By the way, note how quickly this happened! There’s a lesson in this for higher ed (though perhaps the speed of such changes may be different in higher ed).

Some items on this:

Blockbuster’s Fall and Netflix’s Rise, in Pictures

 

Fluency in a technology accelerated age — from Shift to the Future by Brian Kuhn

From DSC:
The following images that Brian featured in his blog posting — images from Sylvia Rosenthal Tolisano (
@langwitches) — remind me of some of the elements in our current learning ecosystems:

 

 

 

 

 

A hugely powerful vision: A potent addition to our learning ecosystems of the future

 

Daniel Christian:
A Vision of Our Future Learning Ecosystems


In the near future, as the computer, the television, the telephone (and more) continues to converge, we will most likely enjoy even more powerful capabilities to conveniently create and share our content as well as participate in a global learning ecosystem — whether that be from within our homes and/or from within our schools, colleges, universities and businesses throughout the world.

We will be teachers and students at the same time — even within the same hour — with online-based learning exchanges taking place all over the virtual and physical world.  Subject Matter Experts (SME’s) — in the form of online-based tutors, instructors, teachers, and professors — will be available on demand. Even more powerful/accurate/helpful learning engines will be involved behind the scenes in delivering up personalized, customized learning — available 24x7x365.  Cloud-based learner profiles may enter the equation as well.

The chances for creativity,  innovation, and entrepreneurship that are coming will be mind-blowing! What employers will be looking for — and where they can look for it — may change as well.

What we know today as the “television” will most likely play a significant role in this learning ecosystem of the future. But it won’t be like the TV we’ve come to know. It will be much more interactive and will be aware of who is using it — and what that person is interested in learning about. Technologies/applications like Apple’s AirPlay will become more standard, allowing a person to move from device to device without missing a  beat. Transmedia storytellers will thrive in this environment!

Much of the professionally done content will be created by teams of specialists, including the publishers of educational content, and the in-house teams of specialists within colleges, universities, and corporations around the globe. Perhaps consortiums of colleges/universities will each contribute some of the content — more readily accepting previous coursework that was delivered via their consortium’s membership.

An additional thought regarding higher education and K-12 and their Smart Classrooms/Spaces:
For input devices…
The “chalkboards” of the future may be transparent, or they may be on top of a drawing board-sized table or they may be tablet-based. But whatever form they take and whatever is displayed upon them, the ability to annotate will be there; with the resulting graphics saved and instantly distributed. (Eventually, we may get to voice-controlled Smart Classrooms, but we have a ways to go in that area…)

Below are some of the graphics that capture a bit of what I’m seeing in my mind…and in our futures.

Alternatively available as a PowerPoint Presentation (audio forthcoming in a future version)

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

— from Daniel S. Christian | April 2011

See also:

Addendum on 4-14-11:

 

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Blockbuster’s largest shareholder calls Blockbuster worst investment ever made — from FastCompany.com by Austin Carr

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After years as Blockbuster’s largest shareholder, Carl Icahn, who at one point amassed some 17 million shares of the now-bankrupt company, has called Blockbuster “the worst investment I ever made.”

In a candid piece written for the Harvard Business Review, Icahn opens up about the rental giant’s struggles and failures in an ever-changing industry.

“[Blockbuster] failed because of too much debt and changes in the industry. It had too many stores, Netflix created a better business model, and then Redbox kiosks and the whole digital phenomenon eliminated the need for consumers to go to a separate DVD store,” Icahn wrote. “Maybe the board did make a mistake in picking Jim Keyes as [John] Antioco’s successor—Keyes knows retailing and did an excellent job with the stores, but he isn’t a digital guy.”

From DSC:
I write about Blockbuster — and I emphasize the items above — because Blockbuster did not respond to the changes that were occurring around them.

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What about those of us in higher education?
How’s our response(s) coming along?

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The pace has changed -- don't come onto the track in a Model T

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Staying Relevant

 

5/2/11 addendum:

4/7/11 addendum:


What's the best way to deal with ever-changing streams of content? When information has shrinking half-lives?

From DSC:
After looking at some items concerning Connectivism*, I’ve been reflecting upon the following questions:

  • What’s the best way for us to dip our feet into the constantly moving streams of content?
    (No matter the topic or discipline, the streams continue to flow.)
  • What’s the optimal setup for K-12 based “courses”?
  • What’s the optimal setup for “courses” within higher education?
  • How should L&D departments deal with this phenomenon?
  • How do publishers and textbook authors want to address this situation?

Thinking of Gonzalez (2004; as cited in Siemens (2005)) description of the challenges of rapidly diminishing knowledge life:

“One of the most persuasive factors is the shrinking half-life of knowledge. The “half-life of knowledge” is the time span from when knowledge is gained to when it becomes obsolete. Half of what is known today was not known 10 years ago. The amount of knowledge in the world has doubled in the past 10 years and is doubling every 18 months according to the American Society of Training and Documentation (ASTD). To combat the shrinking half-life of knowledge, organizations have been forced to develop new methods of deploying instruction.”

Stephen Downes addresses this and points to a possible solution to this phenomenon in his presentation from 3/15/11 entitled “Educational Projection: Supporting Distributed Learning Online.”

Excerpt/slides:

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I need to put more thought into this, but wanted to throw this question out there…more later…

 

 


* From DSC: Some of the items I looked at regarding Connectivism — some directly related, others indirectly-related — were:


Siemens, G.  (2005).  Connectivism: A learning theory for the digital age.  Retrieved from http://www.elearnspace.org/Articles/connectivism.htm.

Downes, S.  (2005).  An introduction to connective knowledge.  Retrieved from http://www.  downes.  ca/post/33034.  Downes noted that this was published in Hug, Theo (ed.  ) (2007): Media, knowledge & education – exploring new spaces, relations and dynamics in digital media ecologies.  Proceedings of the International Conference held on June 25-26, 2007.  November 27, 2007.

Kop, R.  & Hill, A.  (2008).  Connectivism: Learning theory of the future or vestige of the past? International Review of Research in Open and Distance Learning, v9 n3 p1-13 Oct 2008.

Tracey, R.  (2009). Instructivism, constructivism or connectivism? Training & Development in Australia, December, 2009. p08-09, 2p.  Retrieved from EBSCOhost. ISSN 0310-4664.

Kerr, B.  (2007).  A challenge to connectivism.  Retrieved at http://learningevolves.  wikispaces.  com/kerr.

Sims, R.  (2008).  Rethinking (e)learning: A manifesto for connected generations.  Distance Education Vol.  29, No.  2, August 2008, 153–164.  ISSN 0158-7919 print/ISSN 1475-0198 online.  DOI: 10.  1080/01587910802154954

Lisa Dawley.   (2009).  Social network knowledge construction: emerging virtual world pedagogy.  On the Horizon, 17(2), 109-121.   Retrieved from ProQuest Education Journals.  (Document ID: 1880656431).

Hargadon, S.  (2011).  Ugh.  Classic politics now extends to social networking in education.  Retrieved from http://www.  stevehargadon.  com/2011/03/ugh-classic-politics-now-extends-to.  html.

Cross, J.  (2001).  Crowd-inspired innovation.  Retrieved from http://www.internettime.com/2011/03/crowd-inspired-innovation.

Rogers-Estable, M..  (2009).  Web 2.0 and distance education: Tools and techniques.  Distance Learning, 6(4), 55-60.  Retrieved from ProQuest Education Journals.  (Document ID: 2017059921).

Marrotte-Newman, S..  (2009).  Why virtual schools exist and understanding their culture.  Distance Learning, 6(4), 31-35.  Retrieved from ProQuest Education Journals.  (Document ID: 2017059881).

Hilton, J., Graham, C., Rich, P., & Wiley, D. (2010). Using online technologies to extend a classroom to learners at a distance.  Distance Education, 31(1), 77-92.  Retrieved from ProQuest Education Journals.  (Document ID: 2074810921).

Attwell, G. (2010). Personal learning environments and Vygotsky. Retrieved from http://www.pontydysgu.org/2010/04/personal-learning-environments-and-vygotsky.

4 reasons why an increased pace of change means greater unpredictability — from Trends in the Living Networks by Ross Dawson

The Future of television: Sweeping change at breakneck speed — from Cisco by Scott Puopolo, Carlos Cordero, William Gerhardt, Kate Griffin, Leszek Izdebski, and David Parsons, Cisco IBSG Service Provider Practice
10 reasons you won’t recognize your television in the not-too-distant future

Also see their blog posting on this.

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Reminds me of a graphic I created a while back…

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The pace has changed -- don't come onto the track in a Model T

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NIST Scientists Make Quantum Computer Breakthroughs — from FastCompany.com by Kit Eaton

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quantum computing NIST

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Do you know what quantum computing is? Does the mention of quantum mechanics make your skin go clammy with visions of high school physics classes? If the answer to these questions is “no” and “yes,” then keep reading: Quantum computing is how our computer tech will work in the future, and though it’s highly technical, kinda creepy sounding, and your granny probably won’t believe a word of it, the power it’ll give to computers is mind-boggling. And now scientists at National Institute of Standards and Technology have just made an important breakthrough in the tech.

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The pace has changed -- don't come onto the track in a Model T

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From DSC:
If you doubt that…read on…

The New Normal: Universities Sponsoring Online High Schools — from EdReformer.com

K12 announced today that they are partnering with George Washington University to launch The George Washington University Online High School. This private high school will serve students from the US and countries around the world January 2011.

Students are constantly trying to find options that will set them apart from others and participating in this rigorous college preparatory program could be the key. In addition to the curriculum, students who attend an online high school connected to a University such as GWUOHS will have college counseling, personalized learning tools, test preparation, even guidance through the scholarship process.

GWU is not the only university sponsoring online high schools. Stanford has the EPGY Online High School. University of Missouri High School and The University of Oklahoma offer year-round and dual enrollment courses. Whether public or private schools, the possibilities are endless for students. Training for sports, starting a business, volunteering, working in the arts,  all can become easier by signing in to your online courses from the nearest computer.

Through major universities in partnership with online providers, students are reaping the benefits of university resources online high schools. It is interesting that we do not see this type of partnership more often.

MIT tries new approach for some OpenCourseWare (OCW) — from The Chronicle by Jeff Young

New MIT OpenCourseWare Initiative Aims to Improve Independent Online Learning — from the NYT by Aurey Watters of ReadWriteWeb

MIT OpenCourseWare is launching five new courses today that mark a new model for one of the world’s premier open educational resources. These OCW Scholar courses are designed for use by independent learners, and like the other material made available through MIT OCW, are freely available for anyone to pursue. These aren’t distance learning classes – there is no instructor, no contact with MIT, no credit. But the courses are meant to be stand-alone offerings, not requiring any additional materials for learning.

Technology Empowering Online Learning at Post-Secondary Level — from TMCNet by Beecher Tuttle

Times have changed, however. With lower budgets, limited physical space and new insight into the effectiveness of online learning, a myriad of highly regarded public and private colleges and universities have begun transitioning their curriculum to a digital world. In fact, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, one of the most well thought-of state institutions on the East Coast, recently announced its plans to offer its prestigious MBA program completely online. The business school’s dean told Mashable that the university made the move because it did not see online learning as a lesser form of education, if delivered properly.

Quick aside from DSC:

Re: that last sentence…please…let’s stop asking the question if online learning is as good as face-to-face learning. That question has been answered time and again.

The question now is, how will face-to-face learning begin to keep up and measure up to online learning as online learning begins to hit its real stride? We haven’t seen anything yet; and at this point, innovation is happening at much faster speeds in the online world. Those professors, teachers, and trainers used to working solely in the face-to-face teaching and learning environments better really start asking themselves how they will innovate, and how they will respond to the K-12 students (and employees) that are  changing right in front of our eyes!

New Web Venture Offers ‘Syndicated Courses’ — from The Chronicle by  Tusher Rae

Omnicademy, a for-profit institution conceived at Louisiana State University, hopes to allow professors to syndicate their courses this fall.

The company’s system will let professors upload material from courses they’re already teaching and offer the courses to students at other colleges through the Omnicademy site, said the company’s founder, Stacey Simmons, associate director for economic development at Louisiana’s Center for Computation and Technology.

Universities can review the courses and decide which ones they want to adopt and offer credit for. When students log into Omnicademy—using a .edu e-mail address—they will only be allowed to select from courses that have been approved by their institution.

If a student wishes to take a course offered through Omnicademy that is not on the list approved by his or her university, Omnicademy will negotiate on behalf of that student with the university, Ms. Simmons added.

2020 Vision — from neXtedu

The MEGATRENDS I see changing the Education Industry are:

1) The Knowledge Economy:
Prediction:  By 2020, Assessment becomes the currency for the Knowledge Economy, not where you went to school.  In other words, opportunity will truly be driven by what you know, not by where your degree is from.

2) Globalization:
Prediction: By 2020, there will be Global Schools like Avenues and Mosaica in the primary and secondary market and an acceleration of Global Universities will be driven by online offerings.  Moreover, study abroad will become a standard part of a college education (up from 1% of the students currently) and will even be an important feature for top-tier private K-12 schools.

3) The Internet: …Web 2.0 is truly about “democratizing” education, not only increasing access and lowering cost but also improving quality.
Prediction: By 2020, all college students will have a “blended” or “hybrid” learning experience, as will nearly all high school students.  Virtual School operators such as K12, Connections Academy and Florida Virtual have millions of students and Arizona State University Online becomes the largest University in the World.  The information that is made readily available by new media education sites such as Center for Education Reform’s “Media Bullpen” and the Education Breakthrough Network create a “dismantling of the Berlin Wall” moment for school choice, with a flood of opportunities coming to parents and students throughout the United States.

4) Outsourcing:
Prediction: By 2020, students in Charter Schools will have more than tripled from 3% to 10% of America’s student body, and it will become standard to integrate specialists, from foreign languages to mathematics, into the “traditional” school. Teach for America becomes a “for profit” as does KIPP, eliminating the ongoing need to raise tens of millions of dollars every year and instead utilize investor capital to sustain and grow their businesses.  I predict over 25% of Universities will have partnerships with outsourced providers to manage their online offering.  Several states will decide to “privatize” their public university system.

5) Consolidation:
Prediction: By 2020, the trend of less power and money from local coupled with a rationalization of the market will see many districts consolidate under either regional or state governance.   As many as 1/3 of the private colleges and universities will either “merge” with other universities or go away.

6) Demographics:
Prediction: By 2020, Education is the #1 national issue driven by minorities understanding that equal access to education is key to their future — and zip code shouldn’t determine a student’s earnings power.  Early stage childcare becomes much more of a national priority with leaders such as Bright Horizons being the model for how corporations and parents work together to provide the early learning needed to be “school ready”.  Gaming will be a standard component of core curriculum and supplementary learning with companies like Dreambox, Tabula Digita , Knewton and Grockit creating powerful adaptive platforms.

7) Network Effects:
Prediction:  By 2020, large learning networks are created in K12, Higher Ed and the Corporate Marketplace driven by gigantic network effects.  Platforms that support “apps” such as digital content, assessment, and social collaboration are supported by three or four large players.

8)  Freemium:
Prediction:  By 2020 some of the largest education companies will be “freemium” models with revenues driven by premium services, sponsorships and ads.  In a world where “assessment is the currency” for opportunity, freemium models that deliver high value knowledge at no cost or a fraction of the cost (like Academic Earth) will be very disruptive to high cost providers.

9) Open:
Prediction:  By 2020, most colleges and universities have abandoned their captive LMS and have adopted open solutions, and service providers such as RSmart and Moodle Rooms are thriving.

10) Brands:
Prediction:  By 2020, institutions with substantial brand equity will have multiple partners to leverage into cash to supplement endowments and flattish tuitions.  As with case studies from other sectors that have created network effects with freemium models, GLOBAL MEGABRANDS will be created with a number of education companies obtaining $10 billion plus market caps.

Arizona State University’s Education Innovation Network

The Education Innovation Network is an open innovation platform where entrepreneurs can find the resources to validate concepts, accelerate growth and reach transformative scale.

From DSC:
Again…do you hear the waves of change crashing on our shores? Do you sense the increased speeds of the “cars on the racetrack”?

© 2024 | Daniel Christian