Another ‘shock’ is coming for American jobs — from washingtonpost.com by Heather Long. DSC: This is a gifted article
Millions of workers will need to shift careers. Our country is unprepared.

The United States is on the cusp of a massive economic shift due to AI, and it’s likely to cause greater change than anything President Donald Trump does in his second term. Much good can come from AI, but the country is unprepared to grapple with the need for millions — or perhaps tens of millions — of workers to shift jobs and entire careers.

“There’s a massive risk that entry-level, white-collar work could get automated. What does that do to career ladders?” asked Molly Kinder, a fellow at the Brookings Institution. Her research has found the jobs of marketing analysts are five times as likely to be replaced as those of marketing managers, and sales representative jobs are three times as likely to be replaced as those of sales managers.

Young people working in these jobs will need to be retrained, but it will be hard for them to invest in new career paths. Consider that many college graduates already carry a lot of debt (an average of about $30,000 for those who took student loans).What’s more, the U.S. unemployment insurance system covers only about 57 percent of unemployed workers and replaces only a modest amount of someone’s pay.

From DSC:
This is another reason why I think this vision here is at least a part of our future. We need shorter, less expensive credentials.

  • People don’t have the time to get degrees that take 2+ years to complete (after they have already gone through college once).
  • They don’t want to come out with more debt on their backs.
  • With inflation going back up, they won’t have as much money anyway.
  • Also, they may already have enough debt on their backs.
 

Reflections on “Are You Ready for the AI University? Everything is about to change.” [Latham]

.
Are You Ready for the AI University? Everything is about to change. — from chronicle.com by Scott Latham

Over the course of the next 10 years, AI-powered institutions will rise in the rankings. US News & World Report will factor a college’s AI capabilities into its calculations. Accrediting agencies will assess the degree of AI integration into pedagogy, research, and student life. Corporations will want to partner with universities that have demonstrated AI prowess. In short, we will see the emergence of the AI haves and have-nots.

What’s happening in higher education today has a name: creative destruction. The economist Joseph Schumpeter coined the term in 1942 to describe how innovation can transform industries. That typically happens when an industry has both a dysfunctional cost structure and a declining value proposition. Both are true of higher education.

Out of the gate, professors will work with technologists to get AI up to speed on specific disciplines and pedagogy. For example, AI could be “fed” course material on Greek history or finance and then, guided by human professors as they sort through the material, help AI understand the structure of the discipline, and then develop lectures, videos, supporting documentation, and assessments.

In the near future, if a student misses class, they will be able watch a recording that an AI bot captured. Or the AI bot will find a similar lecture from another professor at another accredited university. If you need tutoring, an AI bot will be ready to help any time, day or night. Similarly, if you are going on a trip and wish to take an exam on the plane, a student will be able to log on and complete the AI-designed and administered exam. Students will no longer be bound by a rigid class schedule. Instead, they will set the schedule that works for them.

Early and mid-career professors who hope to survive will need to adapt and learn how to work with AI. They will need to immerse themselves in research on AI and pedagogy and understand its effect on the classroom. 

From DSC:
I had a very difficult time deciding which excerpts to include. There were so many more excerpts for us to think about with this solid article. While I don’t agree with several things in it, EVERY professor, president, dean, and administrator working within higher education today needs to read this article and seriously consider what Scott Latham is saying.

Change is already here, but according to Scott, we haven’t seen anything yet. I agree with him and, as a futurist, one has to consider the potential scenarios that Scott lays out for AI’s creative destruction of what higher education may look like. Scott asserts that some significant and upcoming impacts will be experienced by faculty members, doctoral students, and graduate/teaching assistants (and Teaching & Learning Centers and IT Departments, I would add). But he doesn’t stop there. He brings in presidents, deans, and other members of the leadership teams out there.

There are a few places where Scott and I differ.

  • The foremost one is the importance of the human element — i.e., the human faculty member and students’ learning preferences. I think many (most?) students and lifelong learners will want to learn from a human being. IBM abandoned their 5-year, $100M ed push last year and one of the key conclusions was that people want to learn from — and with — other people:

To be sure, AI can do sophisticated things such as generating quizzes from a class reading and editing student writing. But the idea that a machine or a chatbot can actually teach as a human can, he said, represents “a profound misunderstanding of what AI is actually capable of.” 

Nitta, who still holds deep respect for the Watson lab, admits, “We missed something important. At the heart of education, at the heart of any learning, is engagement. And that’s kind of the Holy Grail.”

— Satya Nitta, a longtime computer researcher at
IBM’s Watson
Research Center in Yorktown Heights, NY
.

By the way, it isn’t easy for me to write this. As I wanted AI and other related technologies to be able to do just what IBM was hoping that it would be able to do.

  • Also, I would use the term learning preferences where Scott uses the term learning styles.

Scott also mentions:

“In addition, faculty members will need to become technologists as much as scholars. They will need to train AI in how to help them build lectures, assessments, and fine-tune their classroom materials. Further training will be needed when AI first delivers a course.”

It has been my experience from working with faculty members for over 20 years that not all faculty members want to become technologists. They may not have the time, interest, and/or aptitude to become one (and vice versa for technologists who likely won’t become faculty members).

That all said, Scott relays many things that I have reflected upon and relayed for years now via this Learning Ecosystems blog and also via The Learning from the Living [AI-Based Class] Room vision — the use of AI to offer personalized and job-relevant learning, the rising costs of higher education, the development of new learning-related offerings and credentials at far less expensive prices, the need to provide new business models and emerging technologies that are devoted more to lifelong learning, plus several other things.

So this article is definitely worth your time to read, especially if you are working in higher education or are considering a career therein!


Addendum later on 4/10/25:

U-M’s Ross School of Business, Google Public Sector launch virtual teaching assistant pilot program — from news.umich.edu by Jeff Karoub; via Paul Fain

Google Public Sector and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business have launched an advanced Virtual Teaching Assistant pilot program aimed at improving personalized learning and enlightening educators on artificial intelligence in the classroom.

The AI technology, aided by Google’s Gemini chatbot, provides students with all-hours access to support and self-directed learning. The Virtual TA represents the next generation of educational chatbots, serving as a sophisticated AI learning assistant that instructors can use to modify their specific lessons and teaching styles.

The Virtual TA facilitates self-paced learning for students, provides on-demand explanations of complex course concepts, guides them through problem-solving, and acts as a practice partner. It’s designed to foster critical thinking by never giving away answers, ensuring students actively work toward solutions.

 

It’s the end of work as we knew it
and I feel…

powerless to fight the technology that we pioneered
nostalgic for a world that moved on without us
after decades of paying our dues
for a payday that never came
…so yeah
not exactly fine.


The Gen X Career Meltdown — from nytimes.com by Steeven Kurutz (DSC: This is a gifted article for you)
Just when they should be at their peak, experienced workers in creative fields find that their skills are all but obsolete.

If you entered media or image-making in the ’90s — magazine publishing, newspaper journalism, photography, graphic design, advertising, music, film, TV — there’s a good chance that you are now doing something else for work. That’s because those industries have shrunk or transformed themselves radically, shutting out those whose skills were once in high demand.

“I am having conversations every day with people whose careers are sort of over,” said Chris Wilcha, a 53-year-old film and TV director in Los Angeles.

Talk with people in their late 40s and 50s who once imagined they would be able to achieve great heights — or at least a solid career while flexing their creative muscles — and you are likely to hear about the photographer whose work dried up, the designer who can’t get hired or the magazine journalist who isn’t doing much of anything.

In the wake of the influencers comes another threat, artificial intelligence, which seems likely to replace many of the remaining Gen X copywriters, photographers and designers. By 2030, ad agencies in the United States will lose 32,000 jobs, or 7.5 percent of the industry’s work force, to the technology, according to the research firm Forrester.


From DSC:
This article reminds me of how tough it is to navigate change in our lives. For me, it was often due to the fact that I was working with technologies. Being a technologist can be difficult, especially as one gets older and faces age discrimination in a variety of industries. You need to pick the right technologies and the directions that will last (for me it was email, videoconferencing, the Internet, online-based education/training, discovering/implementing instructional technologies, and becoming a futurist).

For you younger folks out there — especially students within K-16 — aim to develop a perspective and a skillset that is all about adapting to change. You will likely need to reinvent yourself and/or pick up new skills over your working years. You are most assuredly required to be a lifelong learner now. That’s why I have been pushing for school systems to be more concerned with providing more choice and control to students — so that students actually like school and enjoy learning about new things.


 

 

Blind Spot on AI — from the-job.beehiiv.com by Paul Fain
Office tasks are being automated now, but nobody has answers on how education and worker upskilling should change.

Students and workers will need help adjusting to a labor market that appears to be on the verge of a historic disruption as many business processes are automated. Yet job projections and policy ideas are sorely lacking.

The benefits of agentic AI are already clear for a wide range of organizations, including small nonprofits like CareerVillage. But the ability to automate a broad range of business processes means that education programs and skills training for knowledge workers will need to change. And as Chung writes in a must-read essay, we have a blind spot with predicting the impacts of agentic AI on the labor market.

“Without robust projections,” he writes, “policymakers, businesses, and educators won’t be able to come to terms with how rapidly we need to start this upskilling.”

 

2025 Survey of College and University Presidents
Learn about presidents’ takes on topics such as financial confidence, the 2024 election’s impact on higher ed & more.

Inside Higher Ed’s 2025 Survey of College and University Presidents was conducted by Hanover Research. The survey asked presidents from 298 public and private, largely nonprofit two- and four-year institutions timely questions on the following issues:

  • General financial and economic confidence, plus mergers and acquisitions
  • Politics, policy and the 2024 election’s impact on higher education
  • Public perceptions of higher ed and the value of a degree
  • Campus speech
  • Race on campus
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Environmental sustainability goals
  • Campus health and wellness, including student mental health
  • Management, governance and the hardest part about being a president
 
 

The Rise of the Heretical Leader — from ditchthattextbook.com; a guest post by Dan Fitzpatrick

Now is the time for visionary leadership in education. The era of artificial intelligence is reshaping the demands on education systems. Rigid policies, outdated curricula, and reliance on obsolete metrics are failing students. A recent survey from Resume Genius found that graduates lack skills in communication, collaboration, and critical thinking. Consequently, there is a growing trend in companies hiring candidates based on skills instead of traditional education or work experience. This underscores the urgent need for educational leaders to prioritize adaptability and innovation in their systems. Educational leaders must embrace a transformative approach to keep pace.

[Heretical leaders] bring courage, empathy, and strategic thinking to reimagine education’s potential. Here are their defining characteristics:

  • Visionary Thinking: They identify bold, innovative paths to progress.
  • Courage to Act: These leaders take calculated risks to overcome resistance and inertia.
  • Relentless Curiosity: They challenge assumptions and seek better alternatives.
  • Empathy for Stakeholders: Understanding the personal impact of change allows them to lead with compassion.
  • Strategic Disruption: Their deliberate actions ensure systemic improvements.
    These qualities enable Heretical leaders to reframe challenges as opportunities and drive meaningful change.

From DSC:
Readers of this blog will recognize that I believe visionary leadership is extremely important — in all areas of our society, but especially within our learning ecosystems. Vision trumps data, at least in my mind. There are times when data can be used to support a vision, but having a powerful vision is more lasting and impactful than relying on data to drive the organization.

So while I’d vote for a different term other than “heretical leaders,” I get what Dan is saying and I agree with him. Such leaders are going against the grain. They are swimming upstream. They are espousing perspectives that others often don’t buy into (at least initially or for some time). 

Such were the leaders who introduced online learning into the K-16 educational systems back in the late ’90s and into the next two+ decades. The growth of online-based learning continues and has helped educate millions of people. Those leaders and the people who worked for such endeavors were going against the grain.

We haven’t seen the end point of online-based learning. I think it will become even more powerful and impactful when AI is used to determine which jobs are opening up, and which skills are needed for those jobs, and then provide a listing of sources of where one can obtain that knowledge and develop those skills. People will be key in this vision. But so will AI and personalized learning. It will be a collaborative effort.

By the way, I am NOT advocating for using AI to outsource our thinking. Also, having basic facts and background knowledge in a domain is critically important, especially to use AI effectively. But we should be teaching students about AI (as we learn more about it ourselves). We should be working collaboratively with our students to understand how best to use AI. It’s their futures at stake.


 
 

US College Closures Are Expected to Soar, Fed Research Says — from bloomberg.com

  • Fed research created predictive model of college stress
  • Worst-case scenario forecasts 80 additional closures

The number of colleges that close each year is poised to significantly increase as schools contend with a slowdown in prospective students.

That’s the finding of a new working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, where researchers created predictive models of schools’ financial distress using metrics like enrollment and staffing patterns, sources of revenue and liquidity data. They overlayed those models with simulations to estimate the likely increase of future closures.

Excerpt from the working paper:

We document a high degree of missing data among colleges that eventually close and show that this is a key impediment to identifying at risk institutions. We then show that modern machine learning techniques, combined with richer data, are far more effective at predicting college closures than linear probability models, and considerably more effective than existing accountability metrics. Our preferred model, which combines an off-the-shelf machine learning algorithm with the richest set of explanatory variables, can significantly improve predictive accuracy even for institutions with complete data, but is particularly helpful for predicting instances of financial distress for institutions with spotty data.


From DSC:
Questions that come to my mind here include:

  • Shouldn’t the public — especially those relevant parents and students — be made more aware of these types of papers and reports?
    .
  • How would any of us like finishing up 1-3 years of school and then being told that our colleges or universities were closing, effective immediately? (This has happened many times already.) and with the demographic cliff starting to hit higher education, this will happen even more now.
    .
    Adding insult to injury…when we transfer to different institutions, we’re told that many of our prior credits don’t transfer — thus adding a significant amount to the overall cost of obtaining our degrees.
    .
  • Would we not be absolutely furious to discover such communications from our prior — and new — colleges and universities?
    .
  • Will all of these types of closures move more people to this vision here?

Relevant excerpts from Ray Schroeder’s recent articles out at insidehighered.com:

Winds of Change in Higher Ed to Become a Hurricane in 2025

A number of factors are converging to create a huge storm. Generative AI advances, massive federal policy shifts, broad societal and economic changes, and the demographic cliff combine to create uncertainty today and change tomorrow.

Higher Education in 2025: AGI Agents to Displace People

The anticipated enrollment cliff, reductions in federal and state funding, increased inflation, and dwindling public support for tuition increases will combine to put even greater pressure on university budgets.


On the positive side of things, the completion rates have been getting better:

National college completion rate ticks up to 61.1% — from highereddive.com by Natalie Schwartz
Those who started at two-year public colleges helped drive the overall increase in students completing a credential.

Dive Brief:

  • Completion rates ticked up to 61.1% for students who entered college in fall 2018, a 0.5 percentage-point increase compared to the previous cohort, according to data released Wednesday by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
  • The increase marks the highest six-year completion rate since 2007 when the clearinghouse began tracking the data. The growth was driven by fewer students stopping out of college, as well as completion gains among students who started at public two-year colleges.
  • “Higher completion rates are welcome news for colleges and universities still struggling to regain enrollment levels from before the pandemic,” Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director, said in a statement dated Wednesday.

Addendum:

Attention Please: Professors Struggle With Student Disengagement — from edsurge.com

The stakes are huge, because the concern is that maybe the social contract between students and professors is kind of breaking down. Do students believe that all this college lecturing is worth hearing? Or, will this moment force a change in the way college teaching is done?

 

Freshman Enrollment Appears to Decline for the First Time Since 2020 — from nytimes.com by Zach Montague (behind paywall)
A projected 5 percent drop in this year’s freshman class follows a number of disruptions last year, including persistent failures with the FAFSA form.

Freshman enrollment dropped more than 5 percent from last year at American colleges and universities, the largest decline since 2020 when Covid-19 and distance learning upended higher education, according to preliminary data released on Wednesday by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, a nonprofit education group.

The finding comes roughly a year after the federal student aid system was dragged down by problems with the Free Application for Federal Student Aid form, commonly known as FAFSA, which led to maddening delays this year in processing families’ financial data to send to school administrators. That in turn held up the rollout of financial aid offers well into the summer, leaving many families struggling to determine how much college would cost.


Re: the business of higher ed, also see:

Tracking college closures— from hechingerreport.org by Marina Villeneuve and Olivia Sanchez
More colleges are shutting down as enrollment drops

College enrollment has been declining for more than a decade, and that means that many institutions are struggling to pay their bills. A growing number of them are making the difficult decision to close.

In the first nine months of 2024, 28 degree-granting institutions closed, compared with 15 in all of 2023, according to an analysis of federal data provided to The Hechinger Report by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association or SHEEO.

And when colleges close, it hurts the students who are enrolled. At the minimum, colleges that are shutting down should notify students at least three months in advance, retain their records and refund tuition, experts say. Ideally, it should form an agreement with a nearby school and make it easy for students to continue their education.

 

Most parents know AI will be crucial to their children’s future — from eschoolnews.com
A new survey from Samsung Solve for Tomorrow reveals an urgent need to address the looming AI knowledge gap in schools

Parents of Gen Alpha and Gen Z students are optimistic about the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance various aspects of education, according to a new Morning Consult survey commissioned by Samsung Solve for Tomorrow.

The survey notes that an overwhelming 88 percent of parents believe that knowledge of AI will be crucial in their child’s future education and career. However, despite this belief, 81 percent of parents either don’t believe or are not sure that AI is even part of their children’s curriculum. That disparity highlights a pressing need to raise awareness of and increase parental involvement in AI discussions, and advance the implementation of AI in American primary and secondary education.

 

Students need clarity on their postsecondary pathways — from eschoolnews.com by Laura Ascione
When it comes to planning for life after high school, a lack of career exposure is hindering many students’ abilities to envision a future

Key points:

Much emphasis is placed on college and career readiness, but too often, K-12 students aren’t exposed to career possibilities or career resources to form an idea of what their future may look like.

 

 

Employers Say Students Need AI Skills. What If Students Don’t Want Them? — from insidehighered.com by Ashley Mowreader
Colleges and universities are considering new ways to incorporate generative AI into teaching and learning, but not every student is on board with the tech yet. Experts weigh in on the necessity of AI in career preparation and higher education’s role in preparing students for jobs of the future.

Among the 5,025-plus survey respondents, around 2 percent (n=93), provided free responses to the question on AI policy and use in the classroom. Over half (55) of those responses were flat-out refusal to engage with AI. A few said they don’t know how to use AI or are not familiar with the tool, which impacts their ability to apply appropriate use to coursework.

But as generative AI becomes more ingrained into the workplace and higher education, a growing number of professors and industry experts believe this will be something all students need, in their classes and in their lives beyond academia.

From DSC:
I used to teach a Foundations of Information Technology class. Some of the students didn’t want to be there as they began the class, as it was a required class for non-CS majors. But after seeing what various applications and technologies could do for them, a good portion of those same folks changed their minds. But not all. Some students (2% sounds about right) asserted that they would never use technologies in their futures. Good luck with that I thought to myself. There’s hardly a job out there that doesn’t use some sort of technology.

And I still think that today — if not more so. If students want good jobs, they will need to learn how to use AI-based tools and technologies. I’m not sure there’s much of a choice. And I don’t think there’s much of a choice for the rest of us either — whether we’re still working or not. 

So in looking at the title of the article — “Employers Say Students Need AI Skills. What If Students Don’t Want Them?” — those of us who have spent any time working within the world of business already know the answer.

#Reinvent #Skills #StayingRelevant #Surviving #Workplace + several other categories/tags apply.


For those folks who have tried AI:

Skills: However, genAI may also be helpful in building skills to retain a job or secure a new one. People who had used genAI tools were more than twice as likely to think that these tools could help them learn new skills that may be useful at work or in locating a new job. Specifically, among those who had not used genAI tools, 23 percent believed that these tools might help them learn new skills, whereas 50 percent of those who had used the tools thought they might be helpful in acquiring useful skills (a highly statistically significant difference, after controlling for demographic traits).

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

Workera’s CEO was mentored by Andrew Ng. Now he wants an AI agent to mentor you. — from techcrunch.com by Maxwell Zeff; via Claire Zau

On Tuesday, Workera announced Sage, an AI agent you can talk with that’s designed to assess an employee’s skill level, goals, and needs. After taking some short tests, Workera claims Sage will accurately gauge how proficient someone is at a certain skill. Then, Sage can recommend the appropriate online courses through Coursera, Workday, or other learning platform partners. Through chatting with Sage, Workera is designed to meet employees where they are, testing their skills in writing, machine learning, or math, and giving them a path to improve.

From DSC:
This is very much akin to what I’ve been trying to get at with my Learning from the Living [AI-Based Class] Room vision. And as learning agents come onto the scene, this type of vision should take off!

 

Average Student Loan Debt — from educationdata.org by Melanie Hanson; last updated August 16, 2024

Report Highlights. 

  • The total average student loan debt (including private loan debt) may be as high as $40,681.
  • The average federal student loan debt is $37,853 per borrower.
  • Outstanding private student loan debt totals $128.8 billion.
  • The average student borrows over $30,000 to pursue a bachelor’s degree.
  • A total of 42.8 million borrowers have federal student loan debt.
  • It may take borrowers close to 20 years to pay off their student loans.

From DSC:
In other words, we are approaching the end of the line in terms of following the status quo within higher education. Institutions of traditional higher education can no longer increase their cost of tuition by significantly more than the rate of inflation. Increasingly, K-12 students (and families) are looking for other pathways and alternatives. Higher ed better stop trying to change around the edges…they need new, more cost-effective business models as well as being able to be much more responsive in terms of their curricula.

 
© 2025 | Daniel Christian