Biden’s Chief Economist: The Chart That Convinced Me Our Debt Is a Serious Problem — from nytimes.com by Jared Bernstein; this is a gifted article. Americans need to read this.

Budget hawks have fretted for decades about America’s deficits and debt, repeatedly advising our government to embrace greater fiscal austerity. And for just as long, budget doves — myself included — fought this narrative, repeatedly arguing that austerity often does more harm to our economy than good.

No longer. I, like many other longtime doves, am joining the hawks, because our nation’s budget math just got a lot more dangerous.

 

How the national debt affects the U.S. — and you — in 10 charts — from washingtonpost.com by Jacob Bogage; this is a GIFTED article
The national debt already exceeds $36 trillion and is growing at historic rates. That has cascading consequences for the government and economy.

The federal government is taking on record amounts of debt year after year.

The U.S. owes lenders more than $36 trillion. That is close to an all-time high when comparing the debt to the country’s total economic output — a leading indicator of the nation’s ability to pay it all back.

Debt and annual deficits have colored much of the debate around President Donald Trump and Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the mammoth tax and immigration measure the GOP hopes to pass through Congress before July 4. It would add $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade, factoring in the cost of the bill plus interest on the added borrowing, according to nonpartisan estimates.

But how does the national debt affect the U.S. economy and the government? Here are 10 charts to explain.

 

Opinions | This Baltimore program shows how to fight generational poverty – from washingtonpost.com by Leana S. Wen; this is a gifted article
How one grassroots organization is teaching young people leadership skills and giving them hope.

She recognized their desperation and felt called to return and use what she had learned to help them realize a different future. So she set up an organization, HeartSmiles, to do just that — one young person at a time.

Holifield’s experience is one that city officials and public health workers can learn from. If they want to disrupt the generational cycle of poverty, trauma and hopelessness that afflicts so many communities, a good place to focus their efforts is children.

How can communities overcome inertia and resignation? Holifield’s organization starts with two core interventions. The first is career and leadership development. Children as young as 8 go to the HeartSmiles center to participate in facilitated sessions on youth entrepreneurship, budgeting and conflict resolution. Those who want to explore certain career paths are matched with professionals in these fields.

The second part of her vision is youth-led mentorship, which involves pairing young people with those not much older than they are. 


Also relevant/see:

Lost boys, trapped men, and the role of lifers in prison education — from college-inside.beehiiv.com by Charlotte West

This week, we’re publishing Part 2 of a Q&A with Erik Maloney, a lifer in Arizona, and Kevin Wright, a criminal justice professor at Arizona State University. They co-authored Imprisoned Minds, a book about trauma and healing published in December 2024, over the course of seven years. Check out Part 1 of the Q&A.

West: The fact that you created your own curriculum to accompany the book makes me think about the role of lifers in creating educational opportunities in prisons. What do you see as the role of lifers in filling some of these gaps?

Maloney
: I’ve said for years that lifers are so underutilized in prison. It’s all about punishment for what you’re in for, and [the prison system] overlooks us as a resource. We are people who, if allowed to be educated properly, can teach courses indefinitely while also being a role model for those with shorter sentences. This gives the lifer meaning and purpose to do good again. He serves as a mentor, whether he likes it or not, to [those] people coming into the prisons. When they see him doing well, it inspires others to want to do well.

But if it’s all about punishment, and a person has no meaning and no purpose in life, then all they have is hopelessness. With hopelessness comes despair, and with despair, you have rampant drug and alcohol abuse in prison, and violence stems from that.

 

Welcome to Planet Money

The current economic upheaval has a lot of us scratching our heads and scrambling to look up terms like “trade deficit” and “reserve currency.” If only there was a place you could go where friendly voices break down what’s going on in a way that’s fun and easy to understand. There is a place. It’s called Planet Money.

On each episode of the Planet Money podcast, the hosts tell a sometimes quirky, often surprising story that helps explain a topic you might be hearing about in the news, from tariffs to GDP to memecoins.

They walk you through complex concepts using examples from everyday life, like Tupperware and scratch-off lotto tickets, and people you can relate to, like a guy who’s just looking for a fair way to distribute his chickens’ wares during the current egg shortage.

And when someone else’s story isn’t enough to illustrate an economic principle, the hosts take matters into their own hands. In the process, they’ve shot a satellite into space, started a record label, made their own vodka, and shorted the entire stock market – all to help you grasp how the things you see every day came to be.

Visit Planet Money twice a week and you won’t only better understand money – you’ll better understand the world.

 

2025 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition — from library.educause.edu

Higher education is in a period of massive transformation and uncertainty. Not only are current events impacting how institutions operate, but technological advancement—particularly in AI and virtual reality—are reshaping how students engage with content, how cognition is understood, and how learning itself is documented and valued.

Our newly released 2025 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition captures the spirit of this transformation and how you can respond with confidence through the lens of emerging trends, key technologies and practices, and scenario-based foresight.

#teachingandlearning #highereducation #learningecosystems #learning #futurism #foresight #trends #emergingtechnologies #AI #VR #gamechangingenvironment #colleges #universities #communitycolleges #faculty #staff #IT

 

Sam Altman’s Eye-Scanning Orb Is Now Coming to the US — from wired.com by Lauren Goode
At a buzzy event in San Francisco, World announced a series of Apple-like stores, a partnership with dating giant Match Group, and a new mini gadget to scan your eyeballs.

The device-and-app combo scans people’s irises, creates a unique user ID, stores that information on the blockchain, and uses it as a form of identity verification. If enough people adopt the app globally, the thinking goes, it could ostensibly thwart scammers.

The bizarre identity verification process requires that users get their eyeballs scanned, so Tools for Humanity is expanding its physical footprint to make that a possibility.

But World is also a for-profit cryptocurrency company that wants to build a borderless, “globally inclusive” financial network. And its approach has been criticized by privacy advocates and regulators. In its early days, World was explicitly marketing its services to countries with a high percentage of unbanked or underbanked citizens, and offering free crypto as an incentive for people to sign up and have their irises scanned.


From DSC:
If people and governments could be trusted with the level of power a global ID network/service could bring, this could be a great technology. But I could easily see it being abused. Heck, even our own President doesn’t listen to the Judicial Branch of our government! He’s in contempt of court, essentially. But he doesn’t seem to care. 


 

The 2025 AI Index Report — from Stanford University’s Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Lab (hai.stanford.edu); item via The Neuron

Top Takeaways

  1. AI performance on demanding benchmarks continues to improve.
  2. AI is increasingly embedded in everyday life.
  3. Business is all in on AI, fueling record investment and usage, as research continues to show strong productivity impacts.
  4. The U.S. still leads in producing top AI models—but China is closing the performance gap.
  5. The responsible AI ecosystem evolves—unevenly.
  6. Global AI optimism is rising—but deep regional divides remain.
  7. …and several more

Also see:

The Neuron’s take on this:

So, what should you do? You really need to start trying out these AI tools. They’re getting cheaper and better, and they can genuinely help save time or make work easier—ignoring them is like ignoring smartphones ten years ago.

Just keep two big things in mind:

  1. Making the next super-smart AI costs a crazy amount of money and uses tons of power (seriously, they’re buying nuclear plants and pushing coal again!).
  2. Companies are still figuring out how to make AI perfectly safe and fair—cause it still makes mistakes.

So, use the tools, find what helps you, but don’t trust them completely.

We’re building this plane mid-flight, and Stanford’s report card is just another confirmation that we desperately need better safety checks before we hit major turbulence.


Addendum on 4/16:

 

It’s the end of work as we knew it
and I feel…

powerless to fight the technology that we pioneered
nostalgic for a world that moved on without us
after decades of paying our dues
for a payday that never came
…so yeah
not exactly fine.


The Gen X Career Meltdown — from nytimes.com by Steeven Kurutz (DSC: This is a gifted article for you)
Just when they should be at their peak, experienced workers in creative fields find that their skills are all but obsolete.

If you entered media or image-making in the ’90s — magazine publishing, newspaper journalism, photography, graphic design, advertising, music, film, TV — there’s a good chance that you are now doing something else for work. That’s because those industries have shrunk or transformed themselves radically, shutting out those whose skills were once in high demand.

“I am having conversations every day with people whose careers are sort of over,” said Chris Wilcha, a 53-year-old film and TV director in Los Angeles.

Talk with people in their late 40s and 50s who once imagined they would be able to achieve great heights — or at least a solid career while flexing their creative muscles — and you are likely to hear about the photographer whose work dried up, the designer who can’t get hired or the magazine journalist who isn’t doing much of anything.

In the wake of the influencers comes another threat, artificial intelligence, which seems likely to replace many of the remaining Gen X copywriters, photographers and designers. By 2030, ad agencies in the United States will lose 32,000 jobs, or 7.5 percent of the industry’s work force, to the technology, according to the research firm Forrester.


From DSC:
This article reminds me of how tough it is to navigate change in our lives. For me, it was often due to the fact that I was working with technologies. Being a technologist can be difficult, especially as one gets older and faces age discrimination in a variety of industries. You need to pick the right technologies and the directions that will last (for me it was email, videoconferencing, the Internet, online-based education/training, discovering/implementing instructional technologies, and becoming a futurist).

For you younger folks out there — especially students within K-16 — aim to develop a perspective and a skillset that is all about adapting to change. You will likely need to reinvent yourself and/or pick up new skills over your working years. You are most assuredly required to be a lifelong learner now. That’s why I have been pushing for school systems to be more concerned with providing more choice and control to students — so that students actually like school and enjoy learning about new things.


 

 




Students and folks looking for work may want to check out:

Also relevant/see:


 

Blind Spot on AI — from the-job.beehiiv.com by Paul Fain
Office tasks are being automated now, but nobody has answers on how education and worker upskilling should change.

Students and workers will need help adjusting to a labor market that appears to be on the verge of a historic disruption as many business processes are automated. Yet job projections and policy ideas are sorely lacking.

The benefits of agentic AI are already clear for a wide range of organizations, including small nonprofits like CareerVillage. But the ability to automate a broad range of business processes means that education programs and skills training for knowledge workers will need to change. And as Chung writes in a must-read essay, we have a blind spot with predicting the impacts of agentic AI on the labor market.

“Without robust projections,” he writes, “policymakers, businesses, and educators won’t be able to come to terms with how rapidly we need to start this upskilling.”

 

The Anthropic Economic Index — from anthropic.com; via George Siemens

In the coming years, AI systems will have a major impact on the ways people work. For that reason, we’re launching the Anthropic Economic Index, an initiative aimed at understanding AI’s effects on labor markets and the economy over time.

The Index’s initial report provides first-of-its-kind data and analysis based on millions of anonymized conversations on Claude.ai, revealing the clearest picture yet of how AI is being incorporated into real-world tasks across the modern economy.

We’re also open sourcing the dataset used for this analysis, so researchers can build on and extend our findings.

 

US College Closures Are Expected to Soar, Fed Research Says — from bloomberg.com

  • Fed research created predictive model of college stress
  • Worst-case scenario forecasts 80 additional closures

The number of colleges that close each year is poised to significantly increase as schools contend with a slowdown in prospective students.

That’s the finding of a new working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, where researchers created predictive models of schools’ financial distress using metrics like enrollment and staffing patterns, sources of revenue and liquidity data. They overlayed those models with simulations to estimate the likely increase of future closures.

Excerpt from the working paper:

We document a high degree of missing data among colleges that eventually close and show that this is a key impediment to identifying at risk institutions. We then show that modern machine learning techniques, combined with richer data, are far more effective at predicting college closures than linear probability models, and considerably more effective than existing accountability metrics. Our preferred model, which combines an off-the-shelf machine learning algorithm with the richest set of explanatory variables, can significantly improve predictive accuracy even for institutions with complete data, but is particularly helpful for predicting instances of financial distress for institutions with spotty data.


From DSC:
Questions that come to my mind here include:

  • Shouldn’t the public — especially those relevant parents and students — be made more aware of these types of papers and reports?
    .
  • How would any of us like finishing up 1-3 years of school and then being told that our colleges or universities were closing, effective immediately? (This has happened many times already.) and with the demographic cliff starting to hit higher education, this will happen even more now.
    .
    Adding insult to injury…when we transfer to different institutions, we’re told that many of our prior credits don’t transfer — thus adding a significant amount to the overall cost of obtaining our degrees.
    .
  • Would we not be absolutely furious to discover such communications from our prior — and new — colleges and universities?
    .
  • Will all of these types of closures move more people to this vision here?

Relevant excerpts from Ray Schroeder’s recent articles out at insidehighered.com:

Winds of Change in Higher Ed to Become a Hurricane in 2025

A number of factors are converging to create a huge storm. Generative AI advances, massive federal policy shifts, broad societal and economic changes, and the demographic cliff combine to create uncertainty today and change tomorrow.

Higher Education in 2025: AGI Agents to Displace People

The anticipated enrollment cliff, reductions in federal and state funding, increased inflation, and dwindling public support for tuition increases will combine to put even greater pressure on university budgets.


On the positive side of things, the completion rates have been getting better:

National college completion rate ticks up to 61.1% — from highereddive.com by Natalie Schwartz
Those who started at two-year public colleges helped drive the overall increase in students completing a credential.

Dive Brief:

  • Completion rates ticked up to 61.1% for students who entered college in fall 2018, a 0.5 percentage-point increase compared to the previous cohort, according to data released Wednesday by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
  • The increase marks the highest six-year completion rate since 2007 when the clearinghouse began tracking the data. The growth was driven by fewer students stopping out of college, as well as completion gains among students who started at public two-year colleges.
  • “Higher completion rates are welcome news for colleges and universities still struggling to regain enrollment levels from before the pandemic,” Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director, said in a statement dated Wednesday.

Addendum:

Attention Please: Professors Struggle With Student Disengagement — from edsurge.com

The stakes are huge, because the concern is that maybe the social contract between students and professors is kind of breaking down. Do students believe that all this college lecturing is worth hearing? Or, will this moment force a change in the way college teaching is done?

 

From DSC:
Great…we have another tool called Canvas. Or did you say Canva?

Introducing canvas — from OpenAI
A new way of working with ChatGPT to write and code

We’re introducing canvas, a new interface for working with ChatGPT on writing and coding projects that go beyond simple chat. Canvas opens in a separate window, allowing you and ChatGPT to collaborate on a project. This early beta introduces a new way of working together—not just through conversation, but by creating and refining ideas side by side.

Canvas was built with GPT-4o and can be manually selected in the model picker while in beta. Starting today we’re rolling out canvas to ChatGPT Plus and Team users globally. Enterprise and Edu users will get access next week. We also plan to make canvas available to all ChatGPT Free users when it’s out of beta.


Using AI to buy your home? These companies think it’s time you should — from usatoday.com by Andrea Riquier

The way Americans buy homes is changing dramatically.

New industry rules about how home buyers’ real estate agents get paid are prompting a reckoning among housing experts and the tech sector. Many house hunters who are already stretched thin by record-high home prices and closing costs must now decide whether, and how much, to pay an agent.

A 2-3% commission on the median home price of $416,700 could be well over $10,000, and in a world where consumers are accustomed to using technology for everything from taxes to tickets, many entrepreneurs see an opportunity to automate away the middleman, even as some consumer advocates say not so fast.


The State of AI Report 2024 — from nathanbenaich.substack.com by Nathan Benaich


The Great Mismatch — from the-job.beehiiv.com. by Paul Fain
Artificial intelligence could threaten millions of decent-paying jobs held by women without degrees.

Women in administrative and office roles may face the biggest AI automation risk, find Brookings researchers armed with data from OpenAI. Also, why Indiana could make the Swiss apprenticeship model work in this country, and how learners get disillusioned when a certificate doesn’t immediately lead to a good job.

major new analysis from the Brookings Institution, using OpenAI data, found that the most vulnerable workers don’t look like the rail and dockworkers who have recaptured the national spotlight. Nor are they the creatives—like Hollywood’s writers and actors—that many wealthier knowledge workers identify with. Rather, they’re predominantly women in the 19M office support and administrative jobs that make up the first rung of the middle class.

“Unfortunately the technology and automation risks facing women have been overlooked for a long time,” says Molly Kinder, a fellow at Brookings Metro and lead author of the new report. “Most of the popular and political attention to issues of automation and work centers on men in blue-collar roles. There is far less awareness about the (greater) risks to women in lower-middle-class roles.”



Is this how AI will transform the world over the next decade? — from futureofbeinghuman.com by Andrew Maynard
Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei has just published a radical vision of an AI-accelerated future. It’s audacious, compelling, and a must-read for anyone working at the intersection of AI and society.

But if Amodei’s essay is approached as a conversation starter rather than a manifesto — which I think it should be — it’s hard to see how it won’t lead to clearer thinking around how we successfully navigate the coming AI transition.

Given the scope of the paper, it’s hard to write a response to it that isn’t as long or longer as the original. Because of this, I’d strongly encourage anyone who’s looking at how AI might transform society to read the original — it’s well written, and easier to navigate than its length might suggest.

That said, I did want to pull out a few things that struck me as particularly relevant and important — especially within the context of navigating advanced technology transitions.

And speaking of that essay, here’s a summary from The Rundown AI:

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei just published a lengthy essay outlining an optimistic vision for how AI could transform society within 5-10 years of achieving human-level capabilities, touching on longevity, politics, work, the economy, and more.

The details:

  • Amodei believes that by 2026, ‘powerful AI’ smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across fields, with agentic and all multimodal capabilities, will be possible.
  • He also predicted that AI could compress 100 years of scientific progress into 10 years, curing most diseases and doubling the human lifespan.
  • The essay argued AI could strengthen democracy by countering misinformation and providing tools to undermine authoritarian regimes.
  • The CEO acknowledged potential downsides, including job displacement — but believes new economic models will emerge to address this.
  • He envisions AI driving unprecedented economic growth but emphasizes ensuring AI’s benefits are broadly distributed.

Why it matters: 

  • As the CEO of what is seen as the ‘safety-focused’ AI lab, Amodei paints a utopia-level optimistic view of where AI will head over the next decade. This thought-provoking essay serves as both a roadmap for AI’s potential and a call to action to ensure the responsible development of technology.

AI in the Workplace: Answering 3 Big Questions — from gallup.com by Kate Den Houter

However, most workers remain unaware of these efforts. Only a third (33%) of all U.S. employees say their organization has begun integrating AI into their business practices, with the highest percentage in white-collar industries (44%).

White-collar workers are more likely to be using AI. White-collar workers are, by far, the most frequent users of AI in their roles. While 81% of employees in production/frontline industries say they never use AI, only 54% of white-collar workers say they never do and 15% report using AI weekly.

Most employees using AI use it for idea generation and task automation. Among employees who say they use AI, the most common uses are to generate ideas (41%), to consolidate information or data (39%), and to automate basic tasks (39%).


Nvidia Blackwell GPUs sold out for the next 12 months as AI market boom continues — from techspot.com by Skye Jacobs
Analysts expect Team Green to increase its already formidable market share

Selling like hotcakes: The extraordinary demand for Blackwell GPUs illustrates the need for robust, energy-efficient processors as companies race to implement more sophisticated AI models and applications. The coming months will be critical to Nvidia as the company works to ramp up production and meet the overwhelming requests for its latest product.


Here’s my AI toolkit — from wondertools.substack.com by Jeremy Caplan and Nikita Roy
How and why I use the AI tools I do — an audio conversation

1. What are two useful new ways to use AI?

  • AI-powered research: Type a detailed search query into Perplexity instead of Google to get a quick, actionable summary response with links to relevant information sources. Read more of my take on why Perplexity is so useful and how to use it.
  • Notes organization and analysis: Tools like NotebookLM, Claude Projects, and Mem can help you make sense of huge repositories of notes and documents. Query or summarize your own notes and surface novel connections between your ideas.
 

7.2M Americans Over 50 Hold Student Debt, New Report Shows — from insidehighered.com by Jessica Blake
Urban Institute researchers say the financial burden not only puts a strain on the borrowers themselves but also the social welfare programs designed to be their safety net.

However, a recent series of reports and blog posts published by Urban Institute shows that older adults are also struggling to pay back their student loans.

By analyzing a nationally representative sample of credit records from roughly four million adults aged 50 and older, Urban Institute’s report concludes that as of August 2022, approximately 6 percent of older adults—or 7.2 million Americans—have yet to pay off their student loans. Among those same borrowers, 8 percent, or 580,000 individuals, are behind on payments. The median amount of delinquent debt was approximately $11,500.

“These disadvantages can compound over decades within and across generations, making these borrowers less able to repay their loans on time,” wrote Mingli Zhong, an Urban Institute senior research associate who specializes in borrowing behavior. “Over all, older adults are carrying more debt, not just student loan debt but all kinds of debt [medical, mortgage, etc.] into retirement,” she later told Inside Higher Ed.

 

As the economy slows, focus on the skills of the future: Ability to change. — from joshbersin.com by Josh Bersin

The Skills Of The Future Are Clear: Ability To Drive Change
I had an interesting set of meetings today with a group of HR leaders we talk with every few weeks. Every single one of the CHROs and other leaders told us they are investing in “change management” and “business transformation” skills in their people. What does that mean?

It means just this. While we all want more engineers, manufacturing gurus, scientists, and sales and marketing experts in our companies, the biggest set of “skills” we need is the “ability to drive change.” That particular skill is quite complex, learned over time, and massively important at the moment. And that led me to my final point.

 
© 2025 | Daniel Christian