strategy

TO: University Presidents / RE: Don’t go the way of the newspapers [Davis]

On 09/18/2013, in business, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, journalism, leadership, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

Don’t go the way of the newspapers — from revolution.com by Donn Davis on August 28, 2012

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

So the fall of the great Tribune Company was not about getting blindsided. It was not about failing to understand what was going on with new technologies. It was about failing to act.

The newspaper industry’s Shakespearean fall is a lesson in inaction (like the fate of hero Hamlet). Inaction in the face of disruptive technologies took many forms. “Won’t be a major game-changer,” most said. “Won’t impact good companies like ours,” some opined. “Won’t impact the company until long after I have retired,” others demurred. The leaders of colleges and universities must not make the same mistake of sitting on their hands.

…

Both the newspaper industry and higher-education are risk-averse, so the strong bias will be the status quo.

From DSC:
Great call here Donn; I would also add “Board of Trustees” to your TO: line.

Some serious 50,000-foot level thinking and debates occurring tomorrow in NYC!

On 09/16/2013, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, changing business models, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, education reform, education technology, emerging technologies, engagement / engaging students, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, leadership, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more voice more choice more control, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, online learning, online media, online tutoring, personalized/customized learning, reinvent, social learning / networks, staying relevant, strategy, student-related, surviving, teaching & learning, by Daniel Christian

Check out the agenda:

7:00 a.m.

REGISTRATION

7:45 – 8:45 a.m. The Hall

BREAKFAST PANEL: BRIDGING THE KNOWLEDGE GAP
Technology is giving educators and students more tools to promote the exchange of ideas and expertise. That exchange is key to improved knowledge and empowerment, but without a level playing field, equal access and the right tools, we will never take full advantage of the opportunity to connect. Panelists will discuss the knowledge gap and how new technologies and motivated citizens are bridging that gap to support formal education as well as lifelong learning.
Sponsored by Bank of America

Aditya Bhasin, consumer marketing, analytics and digital banking executive, Bank of America
Gov. Jack Markell, Governor of Delaware
Ted Mitchell, President and C.E.O., NewSchools Venture Fund
Jennifer Tescher, President and C.E.O., The Center for Financial Services Innovation
Joanne Weiss, Former Chief of Staff to the Secretary, U.S. Department of Education

Moderated by John Merrow, Education Correspondent, PBS NewsHour

9 – 9:10 a.m.

WELCOME
Arthur Sulzberger Jr., publisher, The New York Times

9:10 – 9:45 a.m.

KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Sal Khan, founder of the Khan Academy

including 9:30-9:45 audience questions

9:45 – 10:30 a.m.

DEBATE: HAS THE UNIVERSITY AS AN INSTITUTION HAD ITS DAY?
Higher education has always been an array of autonomous institutions, each with their own courses, their own faculty, and their own requirements for their own degrees. But online education is starting to break down those lines in ways that are likely to lead to a lot more shared courses, consortia and credit transfers. In addition, there are a growing number of companies (not schools) providing higher education courses outside of the traditional higher education institutions. As we move towards the possibility of a multi-institution, multicredit qualification, is the traditional higher education institution in danger of losing applicants, income and identity?

Anant Agarwal, president, edX
Sal Khan, founder, The Khan Academy
Biddy Martin, president, Amherst College
Nancy Zimpher, Chancellor, SUNY

Moderated by David Leonhardt, Washington bureau chief, The New York Times

including 10:15 – 10:30 audience questions

10:30 – 11 a.m.

COFFEE BREAK

11 – 11:45 a.m.

THE DEALBOOK PANEL: WHAT’S THE NEW ERA BUSINESS MODEL FOR HIGHER EDUCATION?
The traditional idea that education is something the government provides, free, for the public good, is coming under assault from an increasing assortment of new ventures offering for-profit schools, for-profit online courses, tests, curricula, interactive whiteboard, learning management systems, paid-for verified certificates of achievement, e-books, e-tutoring, e-study groups and more. Which areas have the most potential growth — and where is the smart investment going?

Donn Davis, co-founder, Revolution
Tony Florence, general partner, NEA
Deborah Quazzo, founder and managing partner, GSV Advisors

Moderated by Andrew Ross Sorkin, columnist/editor DealBook, The New York Times

Including 11:30 – 11:45 audience questions

11:45 a.m. – 12:10 p.m.

CONVERSATION: THE DISRUPTION OF HIGHER EDUCATION

Michael Horn, co-founder, The Clayton Christenen Institute for Disruptive Innovation
In conversation with David Leonhardt, Washington bureau chief, The New York Times

12:10 – 12:45 p.m.

AUDIENCE DISCUSSION: INCREASING STUDENT ENGAGEMENT
Student attrition is as high as 90 percent for some of the biggest online courses, and remains a problem even
in smaller-scale courses when compared with traditional face-to-face classes. The problem is exacerbated for
community college students who enroll in online courses, or for low-performing students. How can we increase student engagement in online classes, particularly among students who lack competence or confidence?

Yvonne Chan, principal, Vaughn Next Century Learning Center
John Palfrey Jr, head of school, Phillips Academy, Andover
Diane Tavenner, founder and C.E.O., Summit Public Schools

Moderated by Bill Keller, Op-Ed columnist, The New York Times

12:45 – 1:15 p.m.

COLUMNIST CONVERSATION

Senator Bob Kerrey, executive chairman, Minerva Institute

in conversation with Bill Keller, Op-Ed columnist, The New York Times

1:15 – 3:00 p.m.

LUNCH PANEL A: INCREASING HIGHER EDUCATION AFFORDABILTY AND COMPLETION THROUGH ONLINE INNOVATIONS
A thoughtful conversation about innovative online models that are lowering the cost of degrees and increasing degree completion. How do these models work – and where are they going?
Sponsored by Capella

(Held in The Hall)

Mark Becker, President, Georgia State University
Scott Kinney, President, Capella University
Jamie Merisotis, President and C.E.O., Lumina Foundation
Burck Smith, Founder and C.E.O., StraighterLine

Moderated by Melody Barnes, C.E.O., Melody Barnes Solutions (former Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council)

1:15 – 3:00 p.m.

LUNCH PANEL B: A MATHEMATICIAN, SCIENTIST, DOCTOR, AND SOCIOLOGIST WALK INTO A ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE…WHO SURVIVES?
What skills give you the best shot at surviving a zombie apocalypse? Can you do anything to increase your odds of survival? Get an extended preview of UC Irvine’s MOOC “Society, Science, Survival: Lessons from AMC’s The Walking Dead” as we explore what math, science, public health, and sociology have to do with a zombie apocalypse and, in particular, survival. At the end of the panel, the audience will vote on who stands the best chance of survival: mathematician, scientist, doctor, or sociologist.
Sponsored by Instructure

(Held on 15th Floor)

Joanne Christopherson, Associate Director of the Demographic and Social Analysis M.A. Program, University of California, Irvine
Michael Dennin, Professor of physics and astronomy, University of California, Irvine
Sarah Eichhorn, Assistant Vice Chair for undergraduate studies in the mathematics department, University of California, Irvine
Melissa Loble, Associate Dean of distance learning, University of California, Irvine

Moderated by Josh Coates, CEO, Instructure

3 – 3:30 p.m.

COLUMNIST CONVERSATION
In an increasingly connected world, how do we ensure our students are being prepared to compete in a knowledge-based, global economy? What role does technology play in education, and what does the future of learning look like?

Arne Duncan, US Secretary of Education

interviewed by David Leonhardt, Washington bureau chief, The New York Times

3:30 – 4:15 p.m.

IS ONLINE THE GREAT EQUALIZER?
There is no doubt that we are in the middle of an online education revolution, which offers huge potential to broaden access to education and therefore, in theory, level the playing field for students from lower-income, lower-privileged backgrounds. But evidence to date shows that the increasing number of poorly designed courses could actually have the reverse effect and put vulnerable students at an even bigger disadvantage.

Karen Cator, C.E.O., Digital Promise
Dean Florez, president, 20 Million Minds Foundation
Candace Thille, director of the Open Learning Initiative (OLI) and assistant professor of education, Stanford University
David Wiley, founder, Lumen Learning

Moderated by Tina Rosenberg, Op-Ed Columnist, The New York Times

Including 4:00 – 4:15 p.m. audience questions

4:15 – 4:45 p.m.

COFFEE BREAK

4:45 – 5 p.m.

COLUMNIST CONVERSATION

Daphne Koller, co-founder, Coursera

in conversation with Ethan Bronner, Deputy National Editor, The New York Times

5 – 5:45 p.m

GAMECHANGERS: HOW WILL ONLINE EDUCATION REVOLUTIONIZE WHAT WE KNOW AND UNDERSTAND ABOUT LEARNING?
Traditionally, pedagogical research has been done in tiny groups; but new-generation classes of 60,000 students make it possible to do large scale testing and provide potentially game-changing research on how students learn best. Using the Big Data from online courses, we have access to new information about what pedagogical approaches work best. MOOCs, and many more traditional online classes, can track every keystroke, every homework assignment and every test answer a student provides. This can produce a huge amount of data on how long students pay attention to a lecture, where they get stuck in a problem set, what they do to get unstuck, what format and pacing of lectures, demonstrations, labs and quizzes lead to the best outcomes, and so on. How can we use Big Data for the good of the education profession, and not for “Big Brother”?

Daphne Koller, co-founder, Coursera
Alec Ross, senior advisor on innovation and former senior advisor to Secretary Hillary Clinton at the U.S. State Department
Paula Singer, C.E.O. Global Products and Services, Laureate Education

Moderated by Ethan Bronner, Deputy National Editor, The New York Times

including 5:30 – 5:45 p.m. audience questions

5:45 – 6 p.m.

COLUMNIST CONVERSATION

Amol Bhave, student, MIT

in conversation with Tina Rosenberg, Op-Ed Columnist, The New York Times

6 p.m.

CLOSING REMARKS

Gerald Marzorati, editorial director and general manager, conferences, The New York Times

Using the Web to match the needs of your institution with the passions of your donors [Christian]

On 09/09/2013, in budgets, business side of he, funding / grants, higher education, ideas, passions, research, science, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

Crowdfunding-DanielSChristian-9-9-13

From DSC:
Match the needs of your institution with your donors’ passions!

In thinking about how to get the funding necessary to accomplish things, it seems to me that more people would give more of their resources if they knew what the specific needs were at a particular school, college, and/or university. This is where Web-based solutions could play a new, important role (and serve as another example of using technology strategically).

I was reminded of this possibility during a recent conversation with a faculty member from our Music Department. First, some background. My mother was/still is a piano teacher. My folks met due to music and my dad has sung throughout his lifetime. My siblings have each played 1 or more instruments. Music has been something that has been extremely positive for my folks’ marriage and was always heard throughout our home. (Not to mention that music can turn a bad day around for me.)

You can see where music was important to our family, to me…I have a passion for music. So when I heard of a need that our Music Department had, I was ready to get my wallet out on the spot.

I wonder how many more people would be struck like this if they only knew what the specific opportunities to contribute/make a difference were.

See below for some
related resources
on this topic.

Also see:

Crowdfunding — from wikipedia.org
.
GoFundMe.com — Education-Schools-Learning
.
Scientists discover ‘crowdfunding’ as a way of replacing research grants — from The Washington Times by Casey Mutchler
Excerpt:
Like an increasing number of scientists who have seen public grants and investments shrivel, Mr. Perlstein has broken away from traditional sources of scientific funding and turned to the Web, social media and “crowdfunding” to raise money for his efforts.
.
Crowdfundingforum.com
.
Education Heroes at TechAccess.org

Addendum on 9/12/13:

MOOC seeks Kickstarter funding for brain experiments at home — from educationdive.com by Daniel Shumski

Will IBM’s Watson — or a similar set of technologies — be a key ingredient of our future MOOCs? [Christian]

On 09/05/2013, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, blended learning, career development, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, digital learning, disruption, global / globalization, health, heutagogy, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), hybrid learning, IBM, ideas, innovation, instructional design, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, interactivity, internet, IT in HE, K-12 related, lifelong learning, marketing/social marketing, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more voice more choice more control, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, online learning, online media, online tutoring, passions, personalized/customized learning, professional development, research, second screen apps, smart/connected TV, social learning / networks, social media, society, storytelling, strategy, streams of content, teaching online, technologies for your home, training / L&D, trends, ubiquitous learning, United States, using teams, vendors, videoconferencing, virtual K-12 schools, virtual tutoring, vision/possibilities, web-based collaboration, workplace, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
IBM Watson continues to expand into different disciplines/areas, which currently include:

Healthcare
Finance
Customer Service

But Watson is also entering the marketing and education/research realms.

I see a Watson-type-of-tool as being a key ingredient for future MOOCs and the best chance for MOOCs to morph into something very powerful indeed — offloading the majority of the workload to computers/software/intelligent tutoring/learning agents, while at the same time allowing students to connect with each other and/or to Subject Matter Experts (SME’s) as appropriate.

The price of education could hopefully come way down — depending upon the costs involved with licensing Watson or a similar set of technologies — as IBM could spread out their costs to multiple institutions/organizations. This vision represents another important step towards the “Walmart of Education” that continues to develop before our eyes.

Taking this even one step further, I see this system being available to us on our mobile devices as well as in our living rooms — as the telephone, the television, and the computer continue to converge. Blended learning on steroids.

What would make this really powerful would be to provide:

The ability to create narratives/stories around content
To feed streams of content into Watson for students to tap into
Methods of mining data and using that to tweak algorithms, etc. to improve the tools/learning opportunities

Such an architecture could be applied towards lifelong learning opportunities — addressing what we now know as K-12, higher education, and corporate training/development.

.

The New CTO: Chief Transformation Officer — from HBR.org by Daniel Burrus

Excerpt:

…the role of the CIO needs to shift from Chief Information Officer to a Chief Innovation Officer, due to the massive, rapid, multiple technology-driven transformations that are occurring today. And, just as the CIO’s role needs to change, so too does the CTO’s—from Chief Technology Officer to Chief Transformation Officer. This fundamental shift is necessary to elevate the position’s contribution and relevance.

While the CIO has historically been focused on the technology needed to run the company, the CTO has been responsible for the technology integral to products being sold to customers or clients. However, over the next five years every business process is going to undergo a major transformation. For example, IBM executives recently shared with me that over 40 percent of their profits are now coming from products and services that were impossible just a few short years ago. That reflects the transformative nature of business today as well as the speed of the transformation. This is just the beginning and someone has to lead that transformation.

From DSC:
What Daniel Burrus is saying here is what I’ve also been trying to get at when I say that technology needs to be used strategically. The organizations that will thrive in the future will have cultures that are willing to experiment and innovate. They realize that they will fail at times and succeed at other times. They also realize that batting a thousand is not an option — as there are too many targets moving far too quickly (and some targets appearing out of nowhere…while some disappear).

Also see:

Today’s CIO needs to be the Chief Innovation Officer –– from HRB.org by Daniel Burrus

Water106: A very interesting concept/approach. Part of our future learning ecosystems?

On 08/15/2013, in Daniel S. Christian, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, learning ecosystem, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
I originally saw this out at Building the Future of Learning Site [cogdogblog.com]. Several words/concepts caught my eye:

Future of learning
Flow
An experiment
Cross-institutional teaching

Addendum on 8/16/13:

Water106: A cMOOC-like approach to issues-based education (now with whitepaper!) — from hapgood.us by Mike Caulfield

The MOOC Business Plan — from campustechnology.com by David Raths
With millions of students taking high-quality MOOCs for free, schools and course providers are now searching for a viable business model.

Excerpt:

Name a product sold in stores for thousands of dollars that can be obtained for free online. If you’re struggling for an answer, don’t be surprised–no company would last very long under those circumstances. Yet that’s exactly the predicament in which higher education finds itself as MOOCs begin to disrupt the traditional post-secondary model. Schools are giving away what was once their most valued treasure–the intellectual property of their faculty–for nothing.

Obviously, it’s not a sustainable business model, so what’s next? Where will the money come from? While it may seem surprising, no one really seems to know. For many colleges and universities, the current environment more closely resembles a high-stakes game of musical chairs–everyone is terrified of being left without a chair when the music stops. But the game is being played by more than just schools. From a business standpoint, higher education is ripe for reinvention, and it has attracted a slew of companies–both old and new–that smell significant profit.

…

For Coursera, this task is already under way. “Some business models are becoming clear,” says Andrew Ng, cofounder of the for-profit company. “Some we are confident will work; others we are still experimenting with.”

“You could have a certificate of a course completed at Duke University [NC]–that could be a valuable credential,” adds Ng. “We have projected that this alone will lead us to sustainability. In the first quarter of the signature track, we brought in $220,000, and in the second quarter, which hasn’t ended yet, we roughly doubled that amount. So we project that by itself that will make us sustainable.”

The Lesson of Commoditization: From The Washington Post to Higher Education [Selingo]

On 08/07/2013, in business side of he, change, changing business models, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, leadership, strategy, by Daniel Christian

The Lesson of Commoditization: From The Washington Post to Higher Education — from LinkedIn.com by Jeff Selingo

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

You have to ask yourself whether you’re inherently a commodity business or inherently an innovation business.

— A.G. Lafley, CEO Procter & Gamble

Many colleges face the same problem The Washington Post does, and of course, they charge thousands of dollars more for their product. The owners of The Post realized that they needed to get out of the commodity business and into the innovation business, and there was no better person to lead the newspaper through that transformation than Jeff Bezos.

…figure out what is truly innovative and different about the campus experience, double down on that and let other players with less expensive models serve the commodity market. In the end, don’t be afraid of putting a piece of what you do now out of business.

From DSC:
That last sentence speaks directly to what Steve Jobs believed and lived by:

If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.

‘Shake Up’ for Higher Ed — from insidehighered.com by Scott Jaschik

Excerpt:

President Obama vowed Wednesday that he would soon unveil a plan to promote significant reform in higher education — with an emphasis on controlling what colleges charge students and families.

“[I]n the coming months, I will lay out an aggressive strategy to shake up the system, tackle rising costs, and improve value for middle-class students and their families. It is critical that we make sure that college is affordable for every single American who’s willing to work for it,” said Obama, in a speech at Knox College.

…

“Families and taxpayers can’t just keep paying more and more and more into an undisciplined system where costs just keep on going up and up and up. We’ll never have enough loan money, we’ll never have enough grant money, to keep up with costs that are going up 5, 6, 7 percent a year. We’ve got to get more out of what we pay for,” Obama said.

From DSC:
At a $175 billion per year support for postsecondary education, if the Federal Government starts redirecting this flow of $$$…I’ll bet we’ll see some change…and rather quickly I might add.

The Walmart of Education (as predicted back in December 2008) is now here, but I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. To what will we change? At least one major piece of the answer to that question is that we will see the continued — but increasing — use of teams of specialists that will be commissioned to create low-cost, highly-engaging content. Though expensive to create originally, such teams will more than make their money back because of the massive number of students such “courses” will serve.

From the Walmart of Education page on 4/11/09:

…I wanted to offer another idea that might help fund engaging, multimedia-based, online-based learning materials:
(NOTE: The figures I use are not accurate, but rather, they are used for illustration purposes only.)

Let’s reallocate funds towards course development, and then let’s leverage those learning materials throughout the world!

Reallocate funds to course development, and bring costs WAAAAYYYY down and ACCESS WAAAYYY UP!

.

For students: Bring costs waaaayyyyy down and access waaayyy up!

Plus, no more defaulted loans, students could experience richer content, students wouldn’t have to wait as much on financial aid decisions. There would be fewer financial aid headaches; and the resources devoted to figuring out & processing financial aid could be reduced. The issue will be how an institution can differentiate itself in such a new world…but that issue will have to be dealt with in the future anyway.

The Coming Crossroads in Higher Education [U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan]

On 07/16/2013, in 21st century, budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, education technology, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, leadership, legislatures / government / legal, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, online learning, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

The Coming Crossroads in Higher Education: Remarks of U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan to the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association Annual Meeting, July 9, 2013 — from distance-educator.com with thanks going out to Mr. John Shank for Scooping this item.

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

But I would also make the case to you today that higher education is approaching a crossroads, where leaders will be asked to choose between incremental and transformational change.

…

Polls show that three out of four Americans believe—and I quote—”to get ahead in life these days, it is necessary to get a college education.” At the same time, three in four Americans also believe that college today is too expensive for most people to afford. That fundamental gap—between aspirations and opportunity—is one we must close.

…

I believe that higher education is at a crossroads because our current model of student and institutional aid is ultimately unsustainable. It is incapable of meeting the bipartisan goal that President Obama articulated four years ago—that America will again lead the world in college attainment by 2020.

…

Speaking in broad-brush terms, I believe we will see two ideas take hold in response to these threats to higher education.

The first response is that the system of state and federal institutional grants and loans will start to shift more toward a performance-based and outcomes-based system than is the case today—and one that does more to reward innovation.

…

The federal government currently provides more than $175 billion a year to postsecondary institutions and students through grants, loans, and direct school support. But together we must do a better job of defining and linking aid to satisfactory academic progress, meaningful institutional performance, and student learning outcomes.

We absolutely must continue to invest in higher education. But we must also use taxpayer dollars more wisely.

This shift in the direction of performance-based funding is already underway.

…

Further evidence of the policy shift underway is that many states—including Indiana, Tennessee, Oregon, and Missouri—are moving in bipartisan fashion to incorporate elements of performance-based funding in higher education.

…

Now, if the first response to the challenges of cost, completion, and accountability is likely to be more performance-based funding and new incentives for innovation, a second response is likely to be a leveraging of educational technology to increase student learning as well as institutional performance and productivity.

We still have a lot to learn and perfect about online learning, MOOCs, simulations and gaming, and other uses of educational technology. But there is no question that a digital revolution is already underway in higher education. And its vast potential has only begun to be tapped.

From DSC:
I hear a lot about resistance to change; in fact, as I come from the tech side of the academic house, I experience it on an ongoing basis.

But I do wonder if the pace of change within higher education might accelerate when more of that $175 billion a year starts flowing elsewhere…?

Technological Advances Demand Adaptation from Public Higher Education [Bienen]

On 07/15/2013, in business side of he, change, changing business models, education technology, faculty, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, internet, online learning, pace of change, reinvent, strategy, surviving, universities, by Daniel Christian

Technological Advances Demand Adaptation from Public Higher Education — from evoLLLution.com by Henry Bienen | President Emeritus, Northwestern University

Excerpt:

Change is coming at a fast pace. Public institutions will need to behave more like private ones, ensuring they can finance themselves and deliver quality programs that benefit their students. Educational technologies will need to be employed for building new models of learning, ones that marshal expensive faculty time more productively and effectively, rather than relegating the majority of instruction to those outside the core faculty. Faculty will need to step up to their role in governance and demonstrate they can support change for the greater good. For-profit corporations will need to demonstrate their utility as partners in creating academic opportunities for students. Additionally, university and faculty leadership will need to mount a convincing argument for the centrality of the liberal arts as the lynchpin of what it means to be educated and what it takes to be successful.

Reflections on “CFO survey reveals doubts about financial sustainability” [Lederman]

On 07/12/2013, in 21st century, business side of he, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, leadership, strategy, vision/possibilities, by Daniel Christian

CFO survey reveals doubts about financial sustainability — from by Doug Lederman

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

But what do those with the closest eyes on their own institutions’ bottom lines — chief college and university business officers — think? Turns out they’re not particularly upbeat, either — about their own colleges’ futures or the higher education landscape more generally.

In a new survey by Inside Higher Ed and Gallup, barely a quarter of campus chief financial officers (27 percent) express strong confidence in the viability of their institution’s financial model over five years, and that number drops in half (to 13 percent) when they are asked to look out over a 10-year horizon.

…

And more than 6 in 10 CFOs disagree or strongly disagree with the statement that “reports that a significant number of higher education institutions are facing existential financial crisis are overblown.”

“This is a ‘Houston, we have a problem’ report,” says Jane Wellman, a higher education finance expert. “People who know what they’re talking about think we have a problem down the road if some things don’t get fixed.”

From DSC:
There is danger in the status quo. What further proof do folks need!?! The monkey needs to move onto the back of those who cling to the status quo — they should defend why things shouldn’t change; and after that explanation is done, they can move on to explaining to people how students and their families will pay for college 5-10 years from now. Good luck with that.

Also related/see:

Struggling Thunderbird Business School Finds a For-Profit Lifeline — from wsj.org by Melissa Korn
School takes drastic step to stay afloat

Excerpt:

The Thunderbird School of Global Management, one of the world’s top-ranked business schools, is selling its campus to a for-profit college operator as part of a last-ditch effort to bolster its finances as more people question the value of an M.B.A.

The partnership with Laureate Education Inc. pushed at least two board members to resign in protest last week and angered pockets of its 40,000-person alumni community. Administrators and other insiders said Thunderbird needed to take a drastic step in order to stay afloat.

Gazing through mud: The campus and you in 50 years — from evoLLLution.com (where LLL stands for lifelong learning) by John Ebersole, President, Excelsior College

Excerpts:

Both types of institutions will be fewer in number as consolidations and closures continue, at an accelerated pace. Those that overcome the academy’s inherent aversion to change and risk are the most likely to survive.
…
Let’s remember that the half-life of knowledge is falling at an astonishing rate. What is relevant today, especially in technical fields, can become obsolete within a matter of a few years, if not months. At the same time, there is an explosion in information. It has been noted that we’re now exposed to more information in one year than our grandparents were in a lifetime.
…
In summary, the units extending the reach of universities in the future will no longer be on the fringe. Their academic and professional development offerings will instead become central to the institution’s mission.

From DSC:
Some additional reflections:

1) Curated streams of content — broken out by discipline/topic — will be key. Lifelong learning. Keeps you relevant/informed throughout your career. A potentially-prominent format might be learning “channels” — populated with information from bots, presented on “Smart TV’s,” with quick access available to a human Subject Matter Expert (SME) or tutor upon request. Perhaps there will be different levels of SME’s, tutors, mentors, etc. with corresponding $$ rates.

2) Interactive video — such as we’re beginning to see with Touchcast — could be very powerful in online-based learning materials.

3) Educational gaming will likely be a powerful, engaging format.

4) We could likely be moving towards more of a team-based approach –as one person likely won’t be able to do it all anymore (at least not at a level that will successfully compete). The higher production qualities and sophistication necessary to compete may force many institutions to pool their resources with other institutions (i.e. more consortia).

5) The unbundling process will likely continue throughout higher ed (i.e. think of iTunes and the album/CD).

Shortfall in educated U.S. workers to worsen: study — — from reuters.com by Paige Gance

Excerpt:

WASHINGTON | Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:55pm EDT (Reuters) – U.S. workers with advanced skills in areas such as math, science and healthcare are growing more scarce, with a shortfall of 20 million adequately educated workers expected by 2020, a study released on Wednesday found.

“The United States has been under-producing workers with postsecondary education since the 1980s,” researchers at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce said in the study. “Jobs will return, but not everyone will be ready for them.”

They predicted that 65 percent of the projected 165 million jobs in 2020 will require more than a high school diploma, up from 59 percent in 2010.

From DSC:
IF the status quo is maintained, the outlook for the U.S. is not good.

That is, if the prices of obtaining a degree in higher ed keep going up and the middle class continues to be hollowed out, a smaller pool of people will even be able to afford getting a postsecondary education (regardless of whether it’s in healthcare, math, or science).

How much longer do the status quo’ers think that the U.S. Federal Government will wait around, watching this situation develop? How much longer before the Federal Government looks elsewhere for its workforce development (let alone the students out there who need to make a living)?

There is not an infinite period of time for institutions of traditional higher education to respond. MOOCs are a start, but they are but one option and they need to be improved. Along those lines:

The organization who can collaborate with those perfecting IBM’s Watson, Apple’s Siri, or Google Now — and integrate those technologies into a low-cost solution for postsecondary education — will be a potent force in the future.

Example slides from
Will Richardson’s solid presentation at ISTE 2013, entitled ” Abundant Learning: Four newish ideas for powerful classrooms”

From DSC:
This idea of self-directed/owned learning is spot on — and not just for those in K-12, but also for those in higher education and for those in the corporate world as well! It unleashes an enormous amount of intrinsic energy, motivation, drive, grit.

Each person needs to own and build their learning ecosystem — identifying one’s gifts, talents, passions, interests and then going out and developing those things. If we each do what we do best, the whole world benefits. As we will need others along the way — a team-based approach, communities of practice, and several of the other things/skills Will alluded to will be very important as well.

Learning Ecosystems

TO: University Presidents / RE: Don’t go the way of the newspapers [Davis]

Using the Web to match the needs of your institution with the passions of your donors [Christian]

Reflections on “The New CTO: Chief Transformation Officer ” [Burrus]

Water106: A very interesting concept/approach. Part of our future learning ecosystems?

The MOOC Business Plan [Raths]

The Lesson of Commoditization: From The Washington Post to Higher Education [Selingo]

Reflections on ‘Shake Up’ for Higher Ed [Jaschik]

The Coming Crossroads in Higher Education [U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan]

Technological Advances Demand Adaptation from Public Higher Education [Bienen]

Reflections on “CFO survey reveals doubts about financial sustainability” [Lederman]

Some additional reflections on “Gazing through mud: The campus and you in 50 years” [Ebersole]

Shortfall in educated U.S. workers to worsen: study [Gance]

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