Gazing through mud: The campus and you in 50 years — from evoLLLution.com (where LLL stands for lifelong learning) by John Ebersole, President, Excelsior College
Excerpts:

Both types of institutions will be fewer in number as consolidations and closures continue, at an accelerated pace. Those that overcome the academy’s inherent aversion to change and risk are the most likely to survive.

Let’s remember that the half-life of knowledge is falling at an astonishing rate. What is relevant today, especially in technical fields, can become obsolete within a matter of a few years, if not months. At the same time, there is an explosion in information. It has been noted that we’re now exposed to more information in one year than our grandparents were in a lifetime.

In summary, the units extending the reach of universities in the future will no longer be on the fringe. Their academic and professional development offerings will instead become central to the institution’s mission.

 

From DSC:
Some additional reflections:

1)  Curated streams of content — broken out by discipline/topic — will be key.  Lifelong learning. Keeps you relevant/informed throughout your career.  A potentially-prominent format might be learning “channels” — populated with information from bots, presented on “Smart TV’s,” with quick access available to a human Subject Matter Expert (SME) or tutor upon request.   Perhaps there will be different levels of SME’s, tutors, mentors, etc. with corresponding $$ rates. 

2)  Interactive video — such as we’re beginning to see with Touchcast — could be very powerful in online-based learning materials.

3)  Educational gaming will likely be a powerful, engaging format.

4)  We could likely be moving towards more of a team-based approach –as one person likely won’t be able to do it all anymore (at least not at a level that will successfully compete).  The higher production qualities and sophistication necessary to compete may force many institutions to pool their resources with other institutions (i.e. more consortia).

5)  The unbundling process will likely continue throughout higher ed (i.e. think of iTunes and the album/CD).

 

Shortfall in educated U.S. workers to worsen: study — — from reuters.com by Paige Gance

Excerpt:

WASHINGTON | Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:55pm EDT    (Reuters) – U.S. workers with advanced skills in areas such as math, science and healthcare are growing more scarce, with a shortfall of 20 million adequately educated workers expected by 2020, a study released on Wednesday found.

“The United States has been under-producing workers with postsecondary education since the 1980s,” researchers at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce said in the study. “Jobs will return, but not everyone will be ready for them.”

They predicted that 65 percent of the projected 165 million jobs in 2020 will require more than a high school diploma, up from 59 percent in 2010.

 

From DSC:
IF the status quo is maintained, the outlook for the U.S. is not good. 

That is, if the prices of obtaining a degree in higher ed keep going up and the middle class continues to be hollowed out, a smaller pool of people will even be able to afford getting a postsecondary education (regardless of whether it’s in healthcare, math, or science). 

How much longer do the status quo’ers think that the U.S. Federal Government will wait around, watching this situation develop?  How much longer before the Federal Government looks elsewhere for its workforce development (let alone the students out there who need to make a living)? 

There is not an infinite period of time for institutions of traditional higher education to respond.  MOOCs are a start, but they are but one option and they need to be improved.  Along those lines:

The organization who can collaborate with those perfecting IBM’s Watson, Apple’s Siri, or Google Now — and integrate those technologies into a low-cost solution for postsecondary education — will be a potent force in the future.

 

 

 

From DSC:
The article below made me wonder…

What would happen if the U.S. Federal Government got tired of waiting for institutions of traditional higher education to respond significantly  enough to their satisfaction?  Would they re-allocate/redirect their funding elsewhere?

(Please leave a comment if you know of cases where they are already doing this.
I have a lot to learn about this, I’m sure.)

 


No Love for Accreditation — from insidehighered.com by Libby A. Nelson

Excerpt:

But when lawmakers do sit down to rewrite the law governing financial aid programs, accreditation will be under a particularly harsh spotlight.

Members of Congress of both parties seemed to agree more with the critics, saying they were skeptical that traditional accreditation was flexible enough to respond to new developments in higher education.


 

 

 

Then globalization and the Internet changed everything. Customers suddenly had real choices, access to instant reliable information and the ability to communicate with each other. Power in the marketplace shifted from seller to buyer. Customers started insisting on ‘better, cheaper, quicker and smaller,’ along with ‘more convenient, reliable and personalized.’ Continuous, even transformational, innovation have become requirements for survival.”

Steve Denning, “The Management Revolution That’s Already Happening,”
Forbes Magazine, May 30, 2013.

 

 

ChangeIsOptionalDanielChristian-evolllutionDotcom-June2013

 

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PDF of article here

 

 


Below are some items from Steve Knode’s May 2013 newsletter — with some of my reflections/comments
http://www.steveknode.com/newsletters | http://www.steveknode.com/news-items | https://twitter.com/sknode


 

Outlook 2031 — from wealthmanagement.ml.com by Scott Eden
Five trends are primed to shape the world economy profoundly in the decades to come

An older world | Income inequality | A greater demand for energy | A rising global middle class | Food and water security

 

Man vs. Machine: Are any jobs safe from innovation? — from Spiegel Online International by Thomas Schulz
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Past warnings about how technological innovation threatens jobs have proved exaggerated.

Yet the digital revolution now has many scholars warning that this time things are different,
and that the breakneck speed of automation could wreak havoc on the global labor market.

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Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

The digital revolution is destroying jobs faster than it is creating them.

The worldwide application of computer technology has become so much more cost-effective and efficient that people are no longer only replaceable in certain sectors — autoworkers on assembly lines, for instance — but in entire occupational areas. Cashiers are being replaced by self-service check-out lines, airline employees by self check-in kiosks, financial traders by algorithms and travel agencies by online travel sites.

This development has been apparent for roughly a decade. But, says McAfee: “You ain’t seen nothing yet. Looking ahead to what technology is going to do over the next five to 10 years, I’m really concerned.”

 

From DSC:
It is critical that we not only watch this trend extremely closely but that we begin making adjustments NOW to our educational systems/curricula based on the likely scenario that this trend will continue!!!

If not…consider our youth’s near-term situations:

They listen to many of the adults in their lives – parents, coaches, teachers, guidance counselors, professors, etc…
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They work their tails off following all of the standards, curriculum, current ways of getting educated and “ahead”…
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…and they jump through all of these hoops only to find out that they can’t gets jobs in several of those areas that they’ve been studying and working towards!
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How might that impact their motivation? Careers? Their views of adults and establishments/institutions such as governments, schools, colleges/universities, etc.?

Will the pathways of standardized tests and being told “do this,” “don’t do that,” “do this,” prepare them to pivot in their careers? To reinvent themselves? To think creatively? (I doubt it.)

 

Then consider those displaced/replaced cashiers, financial traders, travel agents, autoworkers, etc. — it’s time to reinvent themselves. What’s the best way to do that — and fast!?!

 

Next-generation search: Software bots will anticipate your needs — from by Brian Proffitt
The rise of intelligent software agents that will not only anticipate the information you need, but also act on that information to help manage your life.

Related item:
Concert industry struggles with ‘bots’ that siphon off tickets

 


Miscellaneous thoughts from DSC:


  • Are we seeing the beginnings of a nation as designed/created by STEM graduates? What if you aren’t interested in STEM-related fields — what then?
    .
  • Creativity is key — Daniel Pink’s  “A Whole New Mind” and the work of Sir Ken Robinson come to mind
    .
  • We don’t want to be doing rote things — even white-collar work is being turned over to algorithms
    .
  • We need to know how to learn and where to go to dip into streams of content that are continually flowing by us
    .
  • It’s enormously helpful if we enjoy learning
    .
  • It’s critical that we are lifelong learners
    .
  • The % of our workforce that is freelancing is already at 30% + — and going to 40% by 2020 –>  Are our students good at running their own businesses?

 

 

A trillion dollar anvil dragging us down — from CNN.com by Van Jones

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

(CNN) — The student debt fight is back — with a vengeance.

Once again, current students are facing the possibility of interest rates on Stafford Federal student loans doubling.

A few weeks ago, Warren, D-Massachusetts, proposed groundbreaking legislation that would give students the same deal that big Wall Street banks get. This bill is good policy, and even better politics.

After all, why are we loaning money to mega-profitable international financial institutions at 0.75%, but demanding up to nine times more from our own young people?

 

The future of jobs and work — from futurist.com by Glen Hiemstra

 

GlenHiemstra-The-future-of-jobs-and-work-June2013

 

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Also see:

 

 

 

 

The New ‘New Normal’ — by Kevin Kiley

Excerpt:

Mandatory tuition and fees at the University of California system have about doubled since 2007, but this year, if the state’s governor has his way, they will stay flat.

And the University of California is far from alone. Purdue University is freezing tuition for the first time since 1976. Iowa’s three universities will also probably hold tuition prices constant for the first time in more than 30 years.

 

From DSC:
Institutions of higher education seem to have been priding themselves on smaller tuition increases these last few years — while I’ve been disappointed that they rose at all!  In fact it should have gone in the other direction — i.e. price decreases.  Time will tell whether it’s too little too late; but tuition freezes may not prevent the alternatives from taking over now.

 

 

 

The management revolution that’s already happening — from forbes.com by Steve Denning

From DSC:
Note how the following excerpts might also apply to higher education in the future (emphasis DSC):

Then globalization and the Internet changed everything. Customers suddenly had real choices, access to instant reliable information and the ability to communicate with each other. Power in the marketplace shifted from seller to buyer. Customers started insisting on “better, cheaper, quicker and smaller,” along with “more convenient, reliable and personalized.” Continuous, even transformational, innovation have become requirements for survival.

Initially mature products and firms were wiped out by upstarts that offered cheap substitutes to their products, first capturing low-end customers, and gradually moving upmarket to pick off higher-end customers.

Even as hierarchical bureaucracy was failing in the private sector, its practices were infecting government, non-profits, education and health. “Reforms” here usually involved stricter implementation of hierarchical bureaucracy rather than a shift towards more productive management practices. As a result, performance was pushed even further from the frontier of what is possible. Since the public is coming to expect responsiveness from these sectors similar to that of the private sector, satisfaction steadily declined.

Their virtue lies in the creative energy with which they are pioneering new ways of adding value.

 

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asdfsadf

 

 

openSAP-May2013

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SAP launches MOOC style online courseware — from technorati.com by Adi Gaskell

Excerpt:

Last year I looked at the impact of Massive Online Open Courses and other forms of online learning were having on learning in the workplace.

So it’s interesting to read that software giant SAP are to launch their own MOOC style platform.

The site, called Open.SAP.com, aims to offer employees and other people interested in the SAP environment, a range of courses on topics that the company believe are key to success in the SAP world.

For instance, the first module available is an introduction to software development on SAP HANA.  SAP recommend that people spend around 5 hours per week for six weeks on the course, which has thus far attracted around 20,000 students.

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Mapping with Google

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Discover new ways to navigate the world around you with Google Maps and Google Earth.

Improve your use of new and existing features of Google’s mapping tools.

Choose your own path. Complete a project using Google Maps, Google Earth, or both, and earn a certificate of completion.

Higher Ed in 2018 — from InsideHigherEd.com by Jeb Bush and Randy Best

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

Half a decade from now, almost all universities will offer their students the option of undertaking their coursework in high-demand degree programs online. However, online offerings will no longer be the competitive advantage they are today.

This unprecedented competition and the availability of many high-quality, low-priced options will have caused the tuition bubble to burst and the cost of attending college to tumble, putting even greater pressure on institutional budgets.

While the relative cost of instruction will have declined due to increased scale, the incomes of many professors providing online instruction will have risen sharply.  Some of these professors will have become the free agents of academe, with their courses widely accepted at both public and private universities around the world.

 

 

EdX Expands xConsortium to Asia and doubles in size with addition of 15 new global institutions — from prnewswire.com

From MOOC platform edX announces 15 new university partners (from educationdive.com)

These are the new partner institutions:

  • The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (HKUx)
  • Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, Hong Kong (HKUSTx)
  • Kyoto University, Japan (KyotoUx)
  • Peking University, Beijing, China (PekingX)
  • Seoul National University, South Korea (SNUx)
  • Tsinghua University, Beijing, China (TsinghuaX)
  • The University of Queensland in Australia (UQx)
  • Karolinska Institutet, Sweden (KIx)
  • Universite catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (LouvainX)
  • Technische Universitat Munchen, Germany (TUMx)
  • Berklee College of Music, Boston, Mass. (BerkleeX)
  • Boston University, Boston, Mass. (BUx)
  • Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. (CornellX)
  • Davidson College, Davidson, N.C. (DavidsonX)
  • University of Washington, Seattle (UWashingtonX)

TheNextGenerationUniversity-May2013

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Excerpt:

As the nation struggles to find new ways to increase college access and completion rates while lowering costs, a handful of “Next Generation Universities” are embracing key strategies that make them models for national reform. The report The Next Generation University comes at a time when too many public universities are failing to respond to the nation’s higher education crisis. Rather than expanding enrollment and focusing limited dollars on the neediest of students, many institutions are instead restricting enrollments and encouraging the use of student-aid dollars on merit awards. But, according to the report, some schools are breaking the mold by boldly restructuring operating costs and creating clear, accelerated pathways for students.

Download the full report here.

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In addition to the report, see:

 

Also see:

  • What happens when 2 colleges become one — from chronicle.com by Ricardo Azziz
    Excerpt:
    Earlier this year, Moody’s Investors Service released its annual assessment of higher education in the United States, a report that viewed the sector’s short-term outlook as largely negative amid growing economic pressures. The analysts, however, applauded the efforts of a few states that were trying to merge or consolidate campuses because such efforts “foster operating efficiencies and reduce costs amid declining state support.”
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