surviving

From DSC:
Hmmm…how true: “…the digital age rewards change and punishes stasis.” (source)

Which reminds me of a photo I took just yesterday morning at one of the malls in our area, where a local Sears store is closing.

It made me wonder…if Sears could do it all over again, what would they do differently? If they had a time machine, would they go back in time and work to become the new Amazon.com?

By the way, this picture is for those people who continue to dismiss the need to change and to adapt. Surveying the relevant landscapes is an increasingly important thing for all of us to do, especially given that we are now on an exponential pace of technological change.

Companies must be open to radical reinvention to find new, significant, and sustainable sources of revenue. Incremental adjustments or building something new outside of the core business can provide real benefits and, in many cases, are a crucial first step for a digital transformation. But if these initiatives don’t lead to more profound changes to the core business and avoid the real work of rearchitecting how the business makes money, the benefits can be fleeting and too insignificant to avert a steady march to oblivion.

Addendum on 2/10/17

Macy’s earnings: Shifts in retail are hurting major players — from marketwatch.com by Tonya Garcia
Macy’s has assets like real estate and brand identity, but shifts in the sector are putting pressure on earningsExcerpt:
Even a major player like Macy’s M, +1.51% isn’t immune to retail’s struggles. The sector is experiencing a dramatic shift to e-commerce and changes in consumer tastes and shopping behavior that have put pressure on department store earnings, and on the industry as a whole. Macy’s has already announced 100 store closures and thousands of job cuts, in addition to a reassessment of its real-estate assets. Now there’s buzz from reports about buyout talks with Hudson’s Bay Co. HBC, parent to Lord & Taylor and Saks Fifth Avenue.

The case for digital reinvention [mckinsey.com]

On 02/09/2017, in 21st century, business, change, disruption, ideas, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, surviving, technology (general), vision/possibilities, workplace, by Daniel Christian

The case for digital reinvention — from mckinsey.com
Digital technology, despite its seeming ubiquity, has only begun to penetrate industries. As it continues its advance, the implications for revenues, profits, and opportunities will be dramatic.

Excerpt:

In the quest for coherent responses to a digitizing world, companies must assess how far digitization has progressed along multiple dimensions in their industries and the impact that this evolution is having—and will have—on economic performance. And they must act on each of these dimensions with bold, tightly integrated strategies. Only then will their investments match the context in which they compete.

Walking into your local cafe, would you like a robot barista? See this item from J. Walter Thompson Intelligence.

On 02/03/2017, in 21st century, business, career development, corporate / business world, cost of getting a degree, Daniel S. Christian, emerging technologies, engineering, reinvent, robotics, society, staying relevant, student-related, surviving, workplace, by Daniel Christian

From J. Walter Thompson Intelligence’s Weekly Roundup

From DSC:
For me, using robots for baristas could take away from the charm/overall experience of going into a cafe. Plus, if Starbucks were to go down this path, many jobs would be lost for our students working their way through college.

A world without work — by Derek Thompson; The Atlantic — from July 2015

Excerpts:

Youngstown, U.S.A.
The end of work is still just a futuristic concept for most of the United States, but it is something like a moment in history for Youngstown, Ohio, one its residents can cite with precision: September 19, 1977.

For much of the 20th century, Youngstown’s steel mills delivered such great prosperity that the city was a model of the American dream, boasting a median income and a homeownership rate that were among the nation’s highest. But as manufacturing shifted abroad after World War II, Youngstown steel suffered, and on that gray September afternoon in 1977, Youngstown Sheet and Tube announced the shuttering of its Campbell Works mill. Within five years, the city lost 50,000 jobs and $1.3 billion in manufacturing wages. The effect was so severe that a term was coined to describe the fallout: regional depression.

Youngstown was transformed not only by an economic disruption but also by a psychological and cultural breakdown. Depression, spousal abuse, and suicide all became much more prevalent; the caseload of the area’s mental-health center tripled within a decade. The city built four prisons in the mid-1990s—a rare growth industry. One of the few downtown construction projects of that period was a museum dedicated to the defunct steel industry.
…
“Youngstown’s story is America’s story, because it shows that when jobs go away, the cultural cohesion of a place is destroyed”…
…
“The cultural breakdown matters even more than the economic breakdown.”
…
But even leaving aside questions of how to distribute that wealth, the widespread disappearance of work would usher in a social transformation unlike any we’ve seen.
…
What may be looming is something different: an era of technological unemployment, in which computer scientists and software engineers essentially invent us out of work, and the total number of jobs declines steadily and permanently.
…
After 300 years of people crying wolf, there are now three broad reasons to take seriously the argument that the beast is at the door: the ongoing triumph of capital over labor, the quiet demise of the working man, and the impressive dexterity of information technology.
…
The paradox of work is that many people hate their jobs, but they are considerably more miserable doing nothing.
…
Most people want to work, and are miserable when they cannot. The ills of unemployment go well beyond the loss of income; people who lose their job are more likely to suffer from mental and physical ailments. “There is a loss of status, a general malaise and demoralization, which appears somatically or psychologically or both”…
…
Research has shown that it is harder to recover from a long bout of joblessness than from losing a loved one or suffering a life-altering injury.
…
Most people do need to achieve things through, yes, work to feel a lasting sense of purpose.
…
When an entire area, like Youngstown, suffers from high and prolonged unemployment, problems caused by unemployment move beyond the personal sphere; widespread joblessness shatters neighborhoods and leaches away their civic spirit.
…
What’s more, although a universal income might replace lost wages, it would do little to preserve the social benefits of work.
…
“I can’t stress this enough: this isn’t just about economics; it’s psychological”…

The paradox of work is that many people hate their jobs, but they are considerably more miserable doing nothing.

From DSC:
Though I’m not saying Thompson is necessarily asserting this in his article, I don’t see a world without work as a dream. In fact, as the quote immediately before this paragraph alludes to, I think that most people would not like a life that is devoid of all work. I think work is where we can serve others, find purpose and meaning for our lives, seek to be instruments of making the world a better place, and attempt to design/create something that’s excellent. We may miss the mark often (I know I do), but we keep trying.

From DSC:
The following questions came to my mind today:

What are the future ramifications — for higher education — of an exponential population growth curve, especially in regards to providing access?
Are our current ways of providing an education going to hold up?
What about if the cost of obtaining a degree maintains its current trajectory?
What changes do we need to start planning for and/or begin making now?

Links to sources:

With Uber Freight, it’s not just truck drivers whose jobs are at risk [McDermott]

On 01/20/2017, in business, career development, change, changing business models, corporate / business world, emerging technologies, game-changing environment, generational differences, new business models, platforms, reinvent, society, staying relevant, surviving, workplace, by Daniel Christian

With Uber Freight, it’s not just truck drivers whose jobs are at risk — from linkedin.com by John McDermott
The bane of taxi drivers everywhere is now taking on logistics

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

At the end of December Uber debuted Uber Freight, its foray into the un-sexy yet lucrative world of logistics. Many saw Uber’s entry into freight as a death knell for trucking companies, as Uber is looking to build a fleet of driverless trucks.

And while the threat to trucking is real, Uber Freight poses a more immediate risk to the thousands of mid-level, white-collar support staff jobs in the industry.
…
Uber is uniquely positioned to streamline the industry, though. Much like the company’s ride-hailing app cuts out the taxi dispatcher and allows people to hail rides directly from drivers, Uber Freight can create a platform where shippers and truckers broker shipping orders directly with one another, effectively rendering obsolete thousands of 3PL (third party logistics) workers. It replaces people with software, and configures a labor-intensive industry into a SaaS business.
…
Famed venture capitalist Marc Andreessen is fond of the phrase “software is eating the world,” meaning that it’s replacing many of the post-industrial, pre-internet jobs once thought to be essential. Problem is, one man’s efficiency is another’s unemployment.

Problem is, one man’s efficiency is another’s unemployment.

Robots will take jobs, but not as fast as some fear, new report says — from nytimes.com by Steve Lohr

Excerpt:

The robots are coming, but the march of automation will displace jobs more gradually than some alarming forecasts suggest.

A measured pace is likely because what is technically possible is only one factor in determining how quickly new technology is adopted, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute. Other crucial ingredients include economics, labor markets, regulations and social attitudes.

The report, which was released Thursday, breaks jobs down by work tasks — more than 2,000 activities across 800 occupations, from stock clerk to company boss. The institute, the research arm of the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, concludes that many tasks can be automated and that most jobs have activities ripe for automation. But the near-term impact, the report says, will be to transform work more than to eliminate jobs.

So while further automation is inevitable, McKinsey’s research suggests that it will be a relentless advance rather than an economic tidal wave.

Harnessing automation for a future that works — from mckinsey.com by James Manyika, Michael Chui, Mehdi Miremadi, Jacques Bughin, Katy George, Paul Willmott, and Martin Dewhurst
Automation is happening, and it will bring substantial benefits to businesses and economies worldwide, but it won’t arrive overnight. A new McKinsey Global Institute report finds realizing automation’s full potential requires people and technology to work hand in hand.

Excerpt:

Recent developments in robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning have put us on the cusp of a new automation age. Robots and computers can not only perform a range of routine physical work activities better and more cheaply than humans, but they are also increasingly capable of accomplishing activities that include cognitive capabilities once considered too difficult to automate successfully, such as making tacit judgments, sensing emotion, or even driving. Automation will change the daily work activities of everyone, from miners and landscapers to commercial bankers, fashion designers, welders, and CEOs. But how quickly will these automation technologies become a reality in the workplace? And what will their impact be on employment and productivity in the global economy?

The McKinsey Global Institute has been conducting an ongoing research program on automation technologies and their potential effects. A new MGI report, A future that works: Automation, employment, and productivity, highlights several key findings.

Also related/see:

This Japanese Company Is Replacing Its Staff With Artificial Intelligence — from fortune.com by Kevin Lui

Excerpt:

The year of AI has well and truly begun, it seems. An insurance company in Japan announced that it will lay off more than 30 employees and replace them with an artificial intelligence system. The technology will be based on IBM’s Watson Explorer, which is described as having “cognitive technology that can think like a human,” reports the Guardian. Japan’s Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance said the new system will take over from its human counterparts by calculating policy payouts. The company said it hopes the AI will be 30% more productive and aims to see investment costs recouped within two years. Fukoku Mutual Life said it expects the $1.73 million smart system—which costs around $129,000 each year to maintain—to save the company about $1.21 million each year. The 34 staff members will officially be replaced in March.

Also from “The Internet of Everything” report in 2016 by BI Intelligence:

A Darker Theme in Obama’s Farewell: Automation Can Divide Us — from nytimes.com by Claire Cain Miller

Excerpt:

Underneath the nostalgia and hope in President Obama’s farewell address Tuesday night was a darker theme: the struggle to help the people on the losing end of technological change.

“The next wave of economic dislocations won’t come from overseas,” Mr. Obama said. “It will come from the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of good, middle-class jobs obsolete.”

Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy — from whitehouse.gov by Kristin Lee

Summary:
[On 12/20/16], the White House released a new report on the ways that artificial intelligence will transform our economy over the coming years and decades.

Although it is difficult to predict these economic effects precisely, the report suggests that policymakers should prepare for five primary economic effects:

Positive contributions to aggregate productivity growth;
Changes in the skills demanded by the job market, including greater demand for higher-level technical skills;
Uneven distribution of impact, across sectors, wage levels, education levels, job types, and locations;
Churning of the job market as some jobs disappear while others are created; and
The loss of jobs for some workers in the short-run, and possibly longer depending on policy responses.

From DSC:
Hmmm…this is interesting! I ran into a company based out of Canada called Sightline Innovation — and they offer Machine Learning as a Service!

Here’s an excerpt from their site:

MLaaS: AI for everyone
Sightline’s Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) is the AI solution for Enterprise. With MLaaS, you provide the data and the desired outcome, and Sightline provides the Machine Learning capacity. By analyzing data sets, MLaaS generates strategic insights that allow companies to optimize their business processes and maximize efficiency. Discover new approaches to time management, teamwork and collaboration, client service and business forecasting.

Mine troves of inert customer data to reveal sales pipeline bottlenecks, build more in-depth personas and discover opportunities for upsales.
MLaaS empowers Enterprise to capitalize on opportunities that were previously undiscovered. MLaaS.net is the only system that brings together a full spectrum of AI algorithms including:

Convolutional Neural Networks
Deep Nets
Restricted Boltzman Machines
Probabilistic Graphical Models; and
Bayesian Networks

I wonder if Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) is the way that many businesses in the future will tap into the power of AI-based solutions – especially smaller and mid-size companies who can’t afford to build an internal team focused on AI…?

Equipping people to stay ahead of technological change. “The classic model of education…is breaking down.” [The Economist]

On 01/13/2017, in 21st century, accreditation, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, business, career development, change, changing business models, collaboration, colleges, community colleges, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, economics, education, education reform, Europe, global / globalization, heutagogy, higher education, IBM, ideas, learning ecosystem, lifelong learning, pace of change, professional development, real-world assignments, reinvent, robotics, society, sociology, staying relevant, student-related, surviving, technology (general), traditional / tradition, training / L&D, UK, United States, universities, workplace, by Daniel Christian

Equipping people to stay ahead of technological change — from economist.com by
It is easy to say that people need to keep learning throughout their careers. The practicalities are daunting.

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

WHEN education fails to keep pace with technology, the result is inequality. Without the skills to stay useful as innovations arrive, workers suffer—and if enough of them fall behind, society starts to fall apart. That fundamental insight seized reformers in the Industrial Revolution, heralding state-funded universal schooling. Later, automation in factories and offices called forth a surge in college graduates. The combination of education and innovation, spread over decades, led to a remarkable flowering of prosperity.

Today robotics and artificial intelligence call for another education revolution. This time, however, working lives are so lengthy and so fast-changing that simply cramming more schooling in at the start is not enough. People must also be able to acquire new skills throughout their careers.

Unfortunately, as our special report in this issue sets out, the lifelong learning that exists today mainly benefits high achievers—and is therefore more likely to exacerbate inequality than diminish it. If 21st-century economies are not to create a massive underclass, policymakers urgently need to work out how to help all their citizens learn while they earn. So far, their ambition has fallen pitifully short.
…
At the same time on-the-job training is shrinking. In America and Britain it has fallen by roughly half in the past two decades. Self-employment is spreading, leaving more people to take responsibility for their own skills. Taking time out later in life to pursue a formal qualification is an option, but it costs money and most colleges are geared towards youngsters.

The classic model of education—a burst at the start and top-ups through company training—is breaking down. One reason is the need for new, and constantly updated, skills.

Lifelong learning is becoming an economic imperative — from economist.com
Technological change demands stronger and more continuous connections between education and employment, says Andrew Palmer. The faint outlines of such a system are now emerging

Excerpt:

A college degree at the start of a working career does not answer the need for the continuous acquisition of new skills, especially as career spans are lengthening. Vocational training is good at giving people job-specific skills, but those, too, will need to be updated over and over again during a career lasting decades. “Germany is often lauded for its apprenticeships, but the economy has failed to adapt to the knowledge economy,” says Andreas Schleicher, head of the education directorate of the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries. “Vocational training has a role, but training someone early to do one thing all their lives is not the answer to lifelong learning.”
…
To remain competitive, and to give low- and high-skilled workers alike the best chance of success, economies need to offer training and career-focused education throughout people’s working lives. This special report will chart some of the efforts being made to connect education and employment in new ways, both by smoothing entry into the labour force and by enabling people to learn new skills throughout their careers. Many of these initiatives are still embryonic, but they offer a glimpse into the future and a guide to the problems raised by lifelong reskilling.

Individuals, too, increasingly seem to accept the need for continuous rebooting.

From DSC:
First, some items regarding the enormous emphasis being put towards the use of robotics and automation:

$18.867 billion paid to acquire 50 robotics companies in 2016 — from robohub.org by Frank Tobe
Excerpt:
2016 was a banner year for acquisitions of companies involved in robotics and automation: 50 sold; 11 for amounts over $500 million; five were over a billion. 30 of the 50 companies disclosed transaction amounts which totaled up to a colossal $18.867 billion!
.
2017: The year people are forced to learn new skills… or join the Lost Generation — from enterpriseirregulars.com by Phil Fersht
Excerpt (emphasis DSC):
Let’s cut to the chase – there have never been times as uncertain as these in the world of business. There is no written rule-book to follow when it comes to career survival. The “Future of Work” is about making ourselves employable in a workforce where the priority of business leaders is to invest in automation and digital technology, more than training and developing their own workforces. As our soon-to-be-released State of Operations and Outsourcing 2017 study, conducted in conjunction with KPMG across 454 major enterprise buyers globally, shows a dramatic shift in priorities from senior managers (SVPs and above), where 43% are earmarking significant investment in robotic automation of processes, compared with only 28% placing a similar emphasis on training and change management. In fact, the same number of senior managers are as focused on cognitive computing as their own people… yes, folks, this is the singularity of enterprise operations, where cognitive computing now equals employees’ brains when it comes to investment!
…
My deep-seated fear for today’s workforce is that we’re in danger of becoming this “Lost Generation” of workers if we persist in relying on what we already know, versus avoiding learning new skills that business leaders now need. We have to become students again, put our egos aside, and broaden our capabilities to avoid the quicksand of legacy executives no longer worth employing.

Below are some other resources along these lines:

Our Automated Future — from newyorker.com by Elizabeth Kolbert
How long will it be before you lose your job to a robot?
Artificial Intelligence: Silicon Valley’s Next Frontier – from toptechnews.com by Ethan Baron
The Great A.I. Awakening – from the nytimes.com by Gideon Lewis-Kraus
2017 will be big year for AI thanks to tech giants — from cio.com by Matt Kapko
The Robotic Grocery Store of the Future Is Here — from technologyreview.com by Jamie Condliffe
IBM & Rice University Partner to Build a Robot for the Elderly — from finance.yahoo.com
If a Robot is Going to Take My Job, Should it Pay My Taxes? – from datafloq.com
The White House is prepping for an AI-powered future — from wired.com by April Glaser
Artificial intelligence could cost millions of jobs. The White House says we need more of it. — from gazette.com by The Washington Post
Retail inventory robots could replace the need for store employees — from interestingengineering.com by Trevor English
Apple supplier Foxconn replaces 60,000 humans with robots in China — from marketwatch.com
There are now 260,000 robots working in U.S. factories — from marketwatch.com by Jennifer Booton
Robots expected to run half of Japan by 2035 — from engadget.com by Andrew Tarantola
and many, many more…

From DSC:
Given that these trends continue (i.e., to outsource work to software and to robots), what will the ramifications be for:

Society at large? Will enough people have enough income to purchase the products/services made by the robots and the software?
Will there be major civil unrest / instability? Will crime rates shoot through the roof as peoples’ desperation and frustration escalate?
How we should change our curricula within K-12?
How should we change our curricular within higher education?
How should corporate training & development departments/groups respond to these trends?
Is there some new criteria that we need to use (or increase the usage of) in selecting C-level executives?

People don’t want to hear about it. But if the only thing that the C-level suites out there care about is maximizing profits and minimizing costs — REGARDLESS of what happens to humankind — then we are likely going to be creating a very dangerous future. Capitalism will have gone awry. (By the way, the C-level suite is probably making their decisions based upon how their performance is judged by Wall Street and by shareholders. So I can’t really put all the blame on them. Perhaps the enemy is ourselves…?)

Bottom line: We need to be careful which technologies we implement — and how they are implemented. We need to create a dream in our futures, not a nightmare. We need people at the helms who care about their fellow humankind, and who use the power of these technologies responsibly.

Said of retail stores: “Too late to catch up; out of touch.” Could this scenario of the closing of the brick & mortar facilities also happen to higher education? [Christian]

On 01/09/2017, in 21st century, Amazon, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, blended learning, business, business side of he, change, changing business models, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, digital learning, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, online learning, organizational change, personalized/customized learning, platforms, reinvent, society, staying relevant, student-related, surviving, traditional / tradition, training / L&D, Uncategorized, workplace, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
When I turned on the TV the other day, our local news station was playing a piece re: the closing of several stores in Michigan, some within our area. Some of the national retail stores/chains mentioned were:

Macy’s
- Macy’s closing 100 stores, including 4 in Michigan
  Excerpt:
  Four Macy’s stores in Michigan are permanently closing in a series of company cuts expected to cost 6,200 jobs. Macy’s announced 68 of the 100 stores it plans to shutter Wednesday, according to CNBC. On the list is the Macy’s at Lakeview Square Mall in Battle Creek. CNBC reports the store opened in 1983 and employs 51 associates. Also on the chopping block is the Macy’s in Lansing, Westland and the Eastland Center in Harper Woods. All four Michigan stores are slated to close by the end of 2017.
- Sears and Kmart closing 150 stores — from money.cnn.com by Paul La Monica
  Sears is shutting down 150 more stores, yet another sign of how tough it is for former kings of the retail industry to compete in a world now dominated by Amazon.
  .
Sears
- Internet is the new anchor: Woodland Mall Sears closing
  Big box and anchor stores a vanishing species in West Michigan
  Excerpt:
  Despite the best economy in a decade and a nearly 4 percent increase in consumer spending this holiday, the kind of retailers that used to be the draws for shopping malls and plazas are feeling the continuing impact of the internet. The most notable recent victim of the trend is the Sears that has served as an anchor store at Woodland Mall for decades. “We hear rumors every week about what’s going on, but we don’t want to hear that — we’re working there, we don’t want to hear that kind of thing. We didn’t think that was going to happen to us. We were doing pretty good,” said 52-year-old Marty Kruizenga, who worked at the Sears Automotive at Woodland Mall. He was told Wednesday morning his store was closing.
  .
The Limited
- The Limited just shut all of its stores — from money.cnn.com by Jackie Wattles
  Excerpt (emphasis DSC):
  American malls just got emptier. The Limited, a once-popular women’s clothing brand that offers casual attire and workwear, no longer has any storefronts. On Saturday [1/7/17], a message on the store’s website read, “We’re sad to say that all The Limited stores nationwide have officially closed their doors. But this isn’t goodbye.” The website will still be up and running and will continue to ship nationwide, the company said.
  …
  The Limited is among a long list of brick-and-mortar retailers that once thrived in malls and strip shopping centers — but are now suffering at the hands of digital commerce giants like Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) and fast fashion stores such as H&M and Forever 21.
  .
And another chain that I don’t recall…

Here’s a snapshot I took of the television screen at the end of their piece:

The warnings were there but people didn’t want to address them:

Amazon is taking an increasing share of the US apparel market, according to Morgan Stanley.

Also regarding Amazon, see this interesting prediction from Jack Uldrich:

Below is a quote from a Forbes.com article entitled “Here’s What’s Wrong With Department Stores“

Are Department Stores Dead? Not yet. But they could kill themselves, under the weight of “we’ve always done it this way”. Tweaks in omni-channel strategy aren’t going to be enough to address the fundamental issues at department stores. Not with the way these trends are heading.

Along the lines of the above items, many of us can remember the Blockbuster stores closing in our areas not that long ago — having been blown out of the water by Netflix.

Although there are several lines of thought that could be pursued here (one of which might be to discuss the loss of jobs, especially to our students, as many of them work within retail)… some of the key questions that come to my mind are:

Could this closing of many brick and mortar-based facilities happen within higher education?
.
With the advent of artificial intelligence and cognitive computing, will the innovations that take place on the Internet blow away what’s happening in the face-to-face (F2F) classrooms? As Thomas Frey asserts, by 2030, will the largest company on the internet be an education-based company that we haven’t heard of yet?
(NOTE: “Frey doesn’t go so far as to argue education bots will replace traditional schooling outright. He sees them more as a supplement, perhaps as a kind of tutor.”)
.
Or, because people enjoy learning together in a F2F environment, will F2F classrooms augment what they are doing with what’s available online/digitally?
.
Will the discussion not revolve around online vs F2F, but rather will the topic at hand be more focused on how innovative/responsive one’s institution is?

Also relevant/see:

Attention University Presidents: A Press Release From the Near Future — from futurist Jack Uldrich
(Emphasis added below by DSC)

(Editor’s Note: Change is difficult. This is especially true in organizations that have heretofore been immune to the broader forces of disruption–such as institutions of higher learning. To shake presidents, administrators, and faculty out of their stupor I have drafted the following fictional press release. I encourage all university and college presidents and their boards to read it and then discuss how they can–and must–adapt in order to remain competitive in the future.)

PRESS RELEASE (Fictional Scenario: For Internal Discussion Only)

(Note: All links in the press release highlight real advances in the field of higher education).

State College to Close at End of 2021-2022 Academic Year
Washington, DC – December 16, 2021 — State College, one of the country’s leading public universities, has decided to cease academic operations at the end of the 2021-22 school year.

rest of fictional press release here –>

Last comment from DSC:
I don’t post this to be a fear monger. Rather, I post it to have those of us working with higher education take some time to reflect on this situation — because we need to be far more responsive to change than we are being. Given the increasingly rapid pace of change occurring in our world today, people will have to continue to reinvent themselves. But the difference in the near future will be in the number of times people have to reinvent themselves and how quickly they need to do it. They won’t be able to take 2-4 years off to do it.

Let’s not get blown out of the water by some alternative. Let’s respond while we still have the chance. Let’s be in touch with the changing landscapes and needs out there.

Addendums:

Amazon’s aggressive warehouse and shipping strategy is paying off — from marketwatch.com by Tonya Garcia
.
Department store sales fall 11th straight year amid online onslaught — from marketwatch.com by Jeffry Bartash
Traditional brick-and-mortar stores under siege, lose more ground
.
Ominous prediction says JCPenney could close 30% of its stores within 2 years — from businessinsider.com by Hayley Peterson
Excerpt:
JCPenney could close up to 30% of its stores, or roughly 300 of its more than 1,000 locations, within the next two years, according to a Cowen & Co. report. The department-store chain has largely avoided mass store closings in recent years, but the rise of e-commerce is now forcing the company to reassess its store base, Cowen & Co. analyst Oliver Chen told Business Insider following a meeting with JCPenney management.
.
An apt quote from “Obama’s Education Dept Issues Last Hurrah: A National Edtech Plan for Higher Education” — from edsurge.com by Jeff Young & Tony Wan

Colleges need to adapt to meet the changing demographics and needs of students, rather than expect them to conform to a tradition-loving system.

“Unless we become more nimble in our approach and more scalable in our solutions, we will miss out on an opportunity to embrace and serve the majority of students who will need higher education and postsecondary learning,” says the report. Later it underscores that “higher education has never mattered so much to those who seek it. It drives social mobility, energizes our economy, and underpins our democracy.”

Equipping people to stay ahead of technological change — from economist.com by
It is easy to say that people need to keep learning throughout their careers. The practicalities are daunting.

WHEN education fails to keep pace with technology, the result is inequality. Without the skills to stay useful as innovations arrive, workers suffer—and if enough of them fall behind, society starts to fall apart. That fundamental insight seized reformers in the Industrial Revolution, heralding state-funded universal schooling. Later, automation in factories and offices called forth a surge in college graduates. The combination of education and innovation, spread over decades, led to a remarkable flowering of prosperity.

Today robotics and artificial intelligence call for another education revolution. This time, however, working lives are so lengthy and so fast-changing that simply cramming more schooling in at the start is not enough. People must also be able to acquire new skills throughout their careers.

Amazon is going to kill more American jobs than China did — from marketwatch.com
Millions of retail jobs are threatened as Amazon’s share of online purchases keeps climbing

Don’t discount the game-changing power of the morphing “TV” when coupled with AI, NLP, and blockchain-based technologies! [Christian]

On 01/03/2017, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, A/V -- audio/visual, active learning, adult learning, Amazon, analytics, Apple, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, assessment, Blockchain, Bring your own device (BYOD), career development, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, CMS/LMS, communications, communities of practice, competency-based learning/education, computer science, convergence, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, digital learning, disruption, distance education, education technology, educational games / serious games, elearning, emerging technologies, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, global / globalization, heutagogy, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), ideas, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, internet, K-12 related, learner profiles, learning, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, learning hubs & pods & microschooling, lifelong learning, microlearning, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more voice more choice more control, multimedia, Natural Language Processing (NLP), online learning, online media, online tutoring, participation, passions, personalized/customized learning, platforms, play, professional development, reinvent, second screen apps, smart classrooms, staying relevant, streams of content, student-related, surviving, technologies for your home, technology (general), telepresence, television, tools, training / L&D, transmedia, trends, TVs, user experience (UX), using teams, vendors, videoconferencing, virtual field trips, Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, virtual tutoring, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:

Don’t discount the game-changing power of the morphing “TV” when coupled with artificial intelligence (AI), natural language processing (NLP), and blockchain-based technologies!

When I saw the article below, I couldn’t help but wonder what (we currently know of as) “TVs” will morph into and what functionalities they will be able to provide to us in the not-too-distant future…?

For example, the article mentions that Seiki, Westinghouse, and Element will be offering TVs that can not only access Alexa — a personal assistant from Amazon which uses artificial intelligence — but will also be able to provide access to over 7,000 apps and games via the Amazon Fire TV Store.

Some of the questions that come to my mind:

Why can’t there be more educationally-related games and apps available on this type of platform?
Why can’t the results of the assessments taken on these apps get fed into cloud-based learner profiles that capture one’s lifelong learning? (#blockchain)
When will potential employers start asking for access to such web-based learner profiles?
Will tvOS and similar operating systems expand to provide blockchain-based technologies as well as the types of functionality we get from our current set of CMSs/LMSs?
Will this type of setup become a major outlet for competency-based education as well as for corporate training-related programs?
Will augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and mixed reality (MR) capabilities come with our near future “TVs”?
Will virtual tutoring be one of the available apps/channels?
Will the microphone and the wide angle, HD camera on the “TV” be able to be disconnected from the Internet for security reasons? (i.e., to be sure no hacker is eavesdropping in on their private lives)

Forget a streaming stick: These 4K TVs come with Amazon Fire TV inside — from techradar.com by Nick Pino

Excerpt:

The TVs will not only have access to Alexa via a microphone-equipped remote but, more importantly, will have access to the over 7,000 apps and games available on the Amazon Fire TV Store – a huge boon considering that most of these Smart TVs usually include, at max, a few dozen apps.

The Living [Class] Room -- by Daniel Christian -- July 2012 -- a second device used in conjunction with a Smart/Connected TV

Addendums

A top futurist predicts the largest internet company of 2030 will be an online school — from businessinsider.com by Chris Weller

“I’ve been predicting that by 2030 the largest company on the internet is going to be an education-based company that we haven’t heard of yet,” Frey, the senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute think tank, tells Business Insider.

.

Once thought to be a fad, MOOCs showed staying power in 2016 — from educationdive.com
Dive Brief:
- EdSurge profiles the growth of massive online open courses in 2016, which attracted more than 58 million students in over 700 colleges and universities last year.
- The top three MOOC providers — Coursera, Udacity and EdX — collectively grossed more than $100 million last year, as much of the content provided on these platforms shifted from free to paywall guarded materials.
- Many MOOCs have moved to offering credentialing programs or nanodegree offerings to increase their value in industrial marketplaces.

Some reflections/resources on today’s announcements from Apple

On 10/27/2016, in 21st century, 24x7x365 access, A/V -- audio/visual, active learning, adult learning, analytics, Apple, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, Augmented Reality (AR), Blockchain, Bring your own device (BYOD), business side of he, career development, change, changing business models, cloud-based computing / apps / other cloud-related, collaboration, colleges, communications, communities of practice, community colleges, convergence, corporate universities / corporate training, cost of getting a degree, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, digital learning, distance education, education technology, elearning, emerging technologies, formal learning, future of higher education, game-changing environment, global / globalization, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), ideas, informal learning, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, internet, K-12 related, learner profiles, learning, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, learning hubs & pods & microschooling, learning preferences, lifelong learning, microlearning, mirroring and/or multiple devices, mobile learning, MOOCs -- Massive Open Online Courses, more voice more choice more control, multimedia, new business models, online learning, online tutoring, personalized/customized learning, platforms, professional development, reinvent, staying relevant, streams of content, student-related, surviving, tablets, technologies for your home, television, training / L&D, TVs, ubiquitous learning, universities, user experience (UX), vendors, videoconferencing, virtual field trips, virtual K-12 schools, Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, virtual tutoring, vision/possibilities, web-based collaboration, webinars, youth, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
How long before recommendation engines like this can be filtered/focused down to just display apps, channels, etc. that are educational and/or training related (i.e., a recommendation engine to suggest personalized/customized playlists for learning)?

That is, in the future, will we have personalized/customized playlists for learning on our Apple TVs — as well as on our mobile devices — with the assessment results of our taking the module(s) or course(s) being sent in to:

A credentials database on LinkedIn (via blockchain)
and/or
A credentials database at the college(s) or university(ies) that we’re signed up with for lifelong learning (via blockchain)
and/or
To update our cloud-based learning profiles — which can then feed a variety of HR-related systems used to find talent? (via blockchain)

Will participants in MOOCs, virtual K-12 schools, homeschoolers, and more take advantage of learning from home?

Will solid ROI’s from having thousands of participants paying a smaller amount (to take your course virtually) enable higher production values?

Will bots and/or human tutors be instantly accessible from our couches?

Will we be able to meet virtually via our TVs and share our computing devices?

The Living [Class] Room -- by Daniel Christian -- July 2012 -- a second device used in conjunction with a Smart/Connected TV

Other items on today’s announcements:

All the big announcements from Apple’s Mac event — from amp.imore.com by Joseph Keller

MacBook Pro
Final Cut Pro X
Apple TV > new “TV” app
Touch Bar

Apple is finally unifying the TV streaming experience with new app — from techradar.com by Nick Pino

How to migrate your old Mac’s data to your new Mac — from amp.imore.com by Lory Gil

MacBook Pro FAQ: Everything you need to know about Apple’s new laptops — from amp.imore.com by Serenity Caldwell

Accessibility FAQ: Everything you need to know about Apple’s new accessibility portal — from imore.com by Daniel Bader

Apple’s New MacBook Pro Has a ‘Touch Bar’ on the Keyboard — from wired.com by Brian Barrett

Apple’s New TV App Won’t Have Netflix or Amazon Video — from wired.com by Brian Barrett

Apple 5th Gen TV To Come With Major Software Updates; Release Date Likely In 2017 — from mobilenapps.com

Excellent reflection/idea from Nikos Andriotis: “Meta-machine learning – i.e., a self-learning LMS”

On 10/24/2016, in 21st century, accreditation, adult learning, analytics, Artificial Intelligence/Agents/LLMs/and Related, assessment, Augmented Reality (AR), blended learning, Blockchain, bots, career development, change, changing business models, CMS/LMS, colleges, community colleges, competency-based learning/education, content development, aggregation, repositories, corporate / business world, corporate universities / corporate training, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, data related items, digital learning, disruption, education technology, emerging technologies, experimentation, face-to-face, future, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, homeschooling/homeschoolers, human-computer interaction (HCI), IBM, ideas, innovation, intelligent systems, intelligent tutoring, K-12 related, learner profiles, learning agents, learning ecosystem, Learning from the Living [Class] Room, learning hubs & pods & microschooling, lifelong learning, metacognition / metacognitive skills, microlearning, Microsoft, more voice more choice more control, online learning, pace of change, pedagogy, personalized/customized learning, platforms, professional development, reinvent, RSS, staying relevant, streams of content, student-related, surviving, training / L&D, universities, user experience (UX), workplace, by Daniel Christian

From DSC:
The other day I had posted some ideas in regards to how artificial intelligence, machine learning, and augmented reality are coming together to offer some wonderful new possibilities for learning (see: “From DSC: Amazing possibilities coming together w/ augmented reality used in conjunction w/ machine learning! For example, consider these ideas.”) Here is one of the graphics from that posting:

These affordances are just now starting to be uncovered as machines are increasingly able to ascertain patterns, things, objects…even people (which calls for a separate posting at some point).

But mainly, for today, I wanted to highlight an excellent comment/reply from Nikos Andriotis @ Talent LMS who gave me permission to highlight his solid reflections and ideas:

https://www.talentlms.com/blog/author/nikos-andriotis

From DSC:
Excellent reflection/idea Nikos — that would represent some serious personalized, customized learning!

Nikos’ innovative reflections also made me think about his ideas in light of their interaction or impact with web-based learner profiles, credentialing, badging, and lifelong learning. What’s especially noteworthy here is that the innovations (that impact learning) continue to occur mainly in the online and blended learning spaces.

How might the ramifications of these innovations impact institutions who are pretty much doing face-to-face only (in terms of their course delivery mechanisms and pedagogies)?

Given:

That Microsoft purchased LinkedIn and can amass a database of skills and open jobs (playing a cloud-based matchmaker)
Everyday microlearning is key to staying relevant (RSS feeds and tapping into “streams of content” are important here, and so is the use of Twitter)
65% of today’s students will be doing jobs that don’t even exist yet (per Microsoft & The Future Laboratory in 2016)

The exponential pace of technological change
The increasing level of experimentation with blockchain (credentialing)
…and more

…what do the futures look like for those colleges and universities that operate only in the face-to-face space and who are not innovating enough?

The Few, The Proud, the Unusual — by Jack Uldrich

Excerpt:

An army of ants is an awe-inspiring and efficient force of nature. While each ant is individually small, collectively they accomplish amazing things—provided they have a sufficient source of food. The same is true of today’s modern corporation—if it has a profitable source of revenue. Alas, when the food or the money dries up, both the army and the corporation are endangered.

To protect themselves, ants rely on a unique sub-group of “pioneer ants.” Their sole job is to move out away from the main army in search of the next source of food. In this way, the pioneers act as a hedge against the possibility of being caught without a future source of food.

Every organization should also have at least a few “pioneers ants” whose single job is to identify future opportunities. To ensure these individuals have the best chance of success, I have outlined a series of unusual characteristics that I believe will bolster their odds of success–and, thus, your success…

Every organization should also have at least a few “pioneers ants” whose single job is to identify future opportunities.

Learning Ecosystems

DC: Hmmm…how true: “The digital age rewards change and punishes stasis.”

The case for digital reinvention [mckinsey.com]

With Uber Freight, it’s not just truck drivers whose jobs are at risk [McDermott]

Uldrich: Every organization should have at least a few “pioneers ants” whose single job is to identify future opportunities.

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