RiseofTheReplicants-FTdotcomMarch2014

 

Excerpts:

If Daniel Nadler is right, a generation of college graduates with well-paid positions as junior researchers and analysts in the banking industry should be worried about their jobs. Very worried.

Mr Nadler’s start-up, staffed with ex-Google engineers and backed partly by money from Google’s venture capital arm, is trying to put them out of work.

The threat to jobs stretches beyond the white-collar world. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) also make possible more versatile robots capable of taking over many types of manual work. “It’s going to decimate jobs at the low end,” predicts Jerry Kaplan, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who teaches a class about AI at Stanford University. Like others working in the field, he says he is surprised by the speed at which the new technologies are moving out of the research labs.

 

From DSC:
After reading the above article — and seeing presentations about these trends (example) — I have some major questions to ask:

  • What changes do those of us working within higher education need to make due to these shifts? How should we modify our curricula? Which skills need to be reinforced/developed?
  • What changes do Learning & Development groups and Training Departments need to make within the corporate world?
  • How should we be developing our K-12 students to deal with such a volatile workplace?
  • What changes do adult learners need to make to stay marketable/employable? How can they reinvent themselves (and know what that reinvention should look like)?
  • How can each of us know if our job is next on the chopping block and if it is, what should we do about it?
  • What kind of future do we want?

These changes are for real. The work of Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee further addresses some of these trends and changes. See:

 

TheSecondMachineAge-2014

 

 

 

 

Addendum:

AICouldAutomateJobsChicagoTrib-March52014

 

 

 

Also see:

 

Bill Gates Interview Robots

 

Excerpt:

Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates isn’t going to sugarcoat things: The increasing power of automation technology is going to put a lot of people out of work. Business Insider reports that Gates gave a talk at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, DC this week and said that both governments and businesses need to start preparing for a future where lots of people will be put out of work by software and robots.

 

Also see:

 

 

Reinvent the future– an excellent presentation by Professor Steven Van Belleghem


From DSC:
Though this presentation is aimed at the corporate world, there are NUMEROUS lessons here for those of us working within the world of higher education.


 

AreYouReadyToRe-InventTheFuture-SVanBelleghamFeb2014

 

Sample slides:

 

ReinventYourFuture1-StephenVanBelleghem

 

ReinventYourFuture3-StephenVanBelleghem

 

ReinventYourFuture4-StephenVanBelleghem

 

 


From DSC:
This type of presentation prompts me to ask why there isn’t more coursework being offered involving futurism…?

And within our current business offerings, are we applying enough emphasis on freelancing, entrepreneurship, innovation, and in pulse-checking a variety of landscapes?

Along these lines, see:

Need a job? Invent it — from nytimes.com by Thomas Friedman

Excerpts:

Every middle-class job today is being pulled up, out or down faster than ever. That is, it either requires more skill or can be done by more people around the world or is being buried — made obsolete — faster than ever. Which is why the goal of education today, argues Wagner, should not be to make every child “college ready” but “innovation ready” — ready to add value to whatever they do.

So what should be the focus of education reform today?

We need to focus more on teaching the skill and will to learn and to make a difference and bring the three most powerful ingredients of intrinsic motivation into the classroom: play, passion and purpose.”

 


 

Free online university receives accreditation, in time for graduating class of 7  — from nytimes.com by Tamar Lewin

Excerpt:

Just in time for its first graduates, the University of the People, a tuition-free four-year-old online institution built to reach underserved students around the world, announced Thursday that it had received accreditation.

“This is every exciting, especially for the students who will graduate in April, with a degree from an accredited institution,” said Shai Reshef, the Israeli entrepreneur who invested millions of dollars to create the nonprofit university. “This has been the big question for anyone who thought about enrolling. We have 1.2 million supporters on Facebook, I think second only to Harvard, and every day, there is discussion about when we will be accredited.”

Now, with accreditation from the Distance Education and Training Council, a national accrediting group, Mr. Reshef said, the university will expand significantly. He expects to have 5,000 students by 2016.

 

Also see:

 

MassiveOpenOnlineForcesEconomist-Feb2014

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

Two big forces underpin a university’s costs. The first is the need for physical proximity. Adding students is expensive—they require more buildings and instructors—and so a university’s marginal cost of production is high. That means that even in a competitive market, where price converges towards marginal cost, modern education is dear.

MOOCs work completely differently. Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University and co-founder of an online-education site, Marginal Revolution University, reckons the most salient feature of the online course is its rock-bottom marginal cost: teaching additional students is virtually free.

 

The End of Higher Education’s Golden Age — from Clay Shirky

Excerpts:

Interest in using the internet to slash the price of higher education is being driven in part by hope for new methods of teaching, but also by frustration with the existing system. The biggest threat those of us working in colleges and universities face isn’t video lectures or online tests. It’s the fact that we live in institutions perfectly adapted to an environment that no longer exists.

Our current difficulties are not the result of current problems. They are the bill coming due for 40 years of trying to preserve a set of practices that have outlived the economics that made them possible.

Of the twenty million or so students in the US, only about one in ten lives on a campus. The remaining eighteen million—the ones who don’t have the grades for Swarthmore, or tens of thousands of dollars in free cash flow, or four years free of adult responsibility—are relying on education after high school not as a voyage of self-discovery but as a way to acquire training and a certificate of hireability.

It will also require us to abandon any hope of restoring the Golden Age. It was a nice time, but it wasn’t stable, and it didn’t last, and it’s not coming back. It’s been gone ten years more than it lasted, in fact, and in the time since it ended, we’ve done more damage to our institutions, and our students, and our junior colleagues, by trying to preserve it than we would have by trying to adapt. Arguing that we need to keep the current system going just long enough to get the subsidy the world owes us is really just a way of preserving an arrangement that works well for elites—tenured professors, rich students, endowed institutions—but increasingly badly for everyone else.

 

4 platforms that will disrupt higher education — from hastac.org by Kevin Browne

Excerpts:

  • Straighterline
  • Udemy
  • Mozilla’s Open Badges Project
  • Pearson
    The textbook publisher Pearson is now able to offer degrees of its own in the UK.  If their venture is a success it will certainly inspire others to petition to do this and it will certainly spread to other countries.

 

PearsonOfferingDegrees-Aug2012-inUK


 

The rise of alternatives to university continuing education (part 1) — from higheredmanagement.net by Keith Hampson

Excerpt:

Let’s be clear, we need these new learning providers. We are living through what appears to be a “jobless” economic recovery and people need a way range of options – at different price points – in order to quickly retrain themselves for a rapidly changing job market. A robust and diverse continuing education market is a priority for the 21st century and our government leaders and regulators should be crafting policy to make it happen.

 

Higher education technology predictions for 2014 — from masmithers.com by Mark Smithers

Excerpt:

In summary, we’ll have another contentious year. We’ll see big growth in higher education services from outside of the university sector, a continued gnashing of teeth from established providers. Some new services and platforms will emerge to cater for different forms of learning, MOOCs will evolve and improve and open badges will be hot. Look out for rhizomatic learning.

 

The New Normal isn’t what you think — from nextberlin.eu by Adam Tinworth (the quote below, though targeting at the corporate world, applies to higher ed as well)

Their yearning is doomed. There will be no return to business as usual. We have begun a process of continuous change that will last decades – perhaps for much of the rest of our lifetimes.

 

 

Related items:

Watson is coming for your (professional) jobs — from IEEE.org by John Niman
Excerpt:

Published on Jan 17, 2014 IEET Affiliate Scholar John Niman talks about IBM’s computer system, Watson and how AI may be able to take “Professional” Jobs.

 

Mass unemployment fears over Google artificial intelligence plans — from telegraph.co.uk by Miranda Prynne
The development of artificial intelligence – thrown into spotlight this week after Google spent hundreds of millions on new technology – could mean computers take over human jobs at a faster rate than new roles can be created, experts have warned

 

 

Addendum:

Excerpt:

Higher education is in the midst of a process of transformational change. For the department chair, leadership today must include breadth of vision and the skill to bring the single individuals who make up a department into a group that can think collaboratively about the questions facing their discipline, department, and institution. Chair leadership now depends heavily on the ability to create collaborative habits of thought and dialogue among a group of individuals, none of whom may have had experience in effective teamwork. Skill in this area will derive in large part from the chair’s ability to structure the department’s dialogue to be conscious of the connections among its members and the links between the department’s work and the institution’s goals. Ultimately, the habits of dialogue must also include consciousness of the transformational
currents in higher education as an enterprise. Subsequent articles will examine these issues as they pertain to faculty, students, pedagogy, and other key topics being remodeled in the transformational process.

Speeding up on curves — from educause.com by Bradley Wheeler

Excerpt:

Higher education faces a number of important curves, but I’ll focus first on just two:

1) The finance of higher education is increasingly moving from a public to a private good, leading to increasing cost and price pressures (particularly for state-supported institutions).
2) The increasing digitization of education and research favors greater scale while it also enables potential new substitutes for colleges and universities.

 

Coursera comes of age, announces Specializations — from inc.com by Issie Lapowsky
With a new feature that resembles the college major, Coursera gets a new revenue stream–and becomes an increasingly attractive education alternative.

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Coursera, the Mountain View, California-based provider of free, massively open online courses, or MOOCs, is launching a new feature called Specializations, the MOOC equivalent of majors. Rather than taking one isolated course for free, students can now select a sequence of courses, which they take in order, for a fee, albeit, a small one. Then, if they pass, students receive a certificate of completion.

“We heard from many students that they wanted help sequencing together courses in order to form more substantive programs of study than can be represented by a single course.  On the flip side, we also heard significant interest from our university partners in offering course sequences,” Coursera co-founder Andrew Ng told me by email. “After discussions with our partners and several student surveys, we decided to proceed with this program, which we believe is the next stage in the development of MOOCs.”

Meanwhile, Specializations solve an equally big pain point for Coursera, namely that revenue’s hard to come by when you’re giving a premium product away for free. This way, students will sign up to get their identities verified, a service for which Coursera charges for each class, meaning Specializations will run students about $200 to $500. It’s substantially cheaper than a degree from a traditional university, and for those who can’t afford it, true to its mission, Coursera is offering students financial aid.

 

Also see:

 

10NewSpecializations-Coursera-Jan2014

 


 

TheWalmartOfEducationIsHere-DSC

 

This vision is now reality.

 


Addendums on 1/22/14:

Georgia Tech MOOC-Based Degree Program Turns Away Nearly 2,000 Applicants — from campustechnology.com by Dian Schaffhauser

Excerpt:

A totally MOOC-based master’s degree in computer science announced last spring has opened for business with about 375 students. The new program, being delivered by Georgia Institute of Technology’s College of Computing, claims to be the “first and only” one from an accredited university that operates entirely through a massive open online course format.

The degree program received 2,360 applications during a three-week period in October, about 75 percent more applications than are typically received for the on-campus program during an entire year. Of those, 401 students were offered admission, and 94 percent enrolled for the Spring 2014 semester. According to Georgia Tech, a couple of differences distinguish MOOC enrollment from on-campus enrollment. Whereas 88 percent of the MOOC students are United States citizens or permanent residents, about 90 percent are international in the on-campus program. Also, the average age of the MOOC students is 34.8, about 11 years older than their on-campus counterparts.

 

More Competition for Online Certificate Students — from insidehighered.com by Carl Straumsheim

Excerpt:

An online course provider will this spring introduce bundles of courses created by top-tier universities that can be completed for certificates. That description fits both Academic Partnerships and Coursera, and both programs are called “Specializations.”

The similarities are more than mere coincidence, as the two companies have since last summer discussed a partnership proposed by Academic Partnerships for its platform to use Coursera’s university course offerings. Yet Coursera’s Specializations, announced Tuesday morning, took Academic Partnerships CEO Randy Best by surprise. When the parties spoke last week, Best said Coursera “expressed that they were going to defer for now the idea of Specializations.”

 

 
 

Education is holding Millennials back — from blog.clomedia.com, interview with Donna Harris

Excerpt:

If you ask employers whether millenials are prepared for the workforce, there is no shortage of concern.

Being able to take charge of one’s own career, question the status quo, initiate change, be creative, solve problems, operate independently and be entrepreneurial will become increasingly crucial for career success.

Today’s workers will have dozens of jobs in their lifetimes and need a vastly different toolkit to be successful — the ability to question the status quo, initiate change, be creative, solve problems, operate independently and be entrepreneurial become crucial.

This massive change from a transactional, hierarchical, closed economy to one that is global, networked, transparent and entrepreneurial is a major challenge to our overall education system. We have large institutions, degrees take years to complete, students invest tens (or hundreds) of thousands of dollars, and yet employers are still saying that graduates are not well-suited for their needs. We have to rethink what we’re teaching and how we’re teaching it, with a fundamental understanding of the global economic shift we’re in the midst of.

 
 

Higher education is now ground zero for disruption — from forbes.com by Todd Hixon

Excerpt:

Why? US Higher Ed has a product that does not work, ridiculous costs, and an antiquated business model. For many years we accepted this because we see extraordinary value in education. Now, most middle and upper-middle class parents find they cannot give their children the education they enjoyed. Technology has recently put a spark to this fuel: on-line education works and dramatically improves costs and access. This is a big opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors. Many new companies and programs will emerge in 2014.

 

Also see:

What the flattening industry means for higher education — from evoLLLution.com by Mark Greenfield

Excerpt:

Higher education is getting flattened. Flattening happens “when the impact of the Internet and globalization render an industry unrecognizable, and in many cases, obsolete.”[1] The term is taken from “The World Is Flat,” the seminal book written by Pulitzer Prize-winning author Thomas Friedman.

So, do I think higher education will become obsolete? No. But do I think higher education will become unrecognizable? Absolutely.

 

Why 6 colleges are cutting tuition — from educationdive.com by Daniel Shumski

Excerpt:

Amid news that the “sticker price” for college tuition is often a work of fiction — there are at least 200 colleges where no one pays full price for their education — some schools have been striking out in a different direction. They’re lowering their prices across the board in a practice sometimes called a “tuition reset.”

The idea is simple: Rather than tempting students with big discounts, administrators are hoping that applying a lower tuition more consistently will help them stand out. In most cases, the schools maintain that it’s not about taking in less money in the aggregate and that their programs will not suffer.

So what kinds of numbers are we talking about? Here are six schools that cut their tuition drastically, along with a look at the hard numbers and what the school had to say about the price drop.

 

The Amazon of higher education — from slate.com by Gabriel Kahn
How tiny, struggling Southern New Hampshire University has become a behemoth.

Excerpt:

Five years ago, Southern New Hampshire University was a 2,000-student private school struggling against declining enrollment, poor name recognition, and teetering finances.

Today, it’s the Amazon.com of higher education. The school’s burgeoning online division has 180 different programs with an enrollment of 34,000. Students are referred to as “customers.” It undercuts competitors on tuition. And it deploys data analytics for everything from anticipating future demand to figuring out which students are most likely to stumble.

“We are super-focused on customer service, which is a phrase that most universities can’t even use,” says Paul LeBlanc, SNHU’s president.

Addendum on 1/9/14:

MOOCs ain’t over — from christenseninstitute.org by Michelle Rhee-Weise

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Over the last month, journal headlines have been heralding the death of massive online open courses (MOOCs). You could almost hear the sigh of relief from the academy. With Sebastian Thrun himself acknowledging the “lousy” quality of the MOOC product, told-you-so skeptics have been giddily pointing out that Udacity, in its failure to disrupt higher education, is now moving on to vocational training.

Sadly, what audiences are missing is that Thrun’s shift to workforce training is precisely what has the potential to disrupt and severely impact traditional postsecondary education. We at the Christensen Institute have already written extensively about how MOOCs were not displaying the right markers for disruption (see here, here, here, and here), but we became more hopeful as they started to offer clusters of courses. Coursera announced Foundations of Business with Wharton, while edX and MITX introduced the Xseries in Computer Science as well as Supply Chain & Logistics. These moves appeared to map better to employer needs and what we describe as areas of nonconsumption. In their turn away from career-oriented training, colleges and universities have unwittingly left unattended a niche of nonconsumers—people over-served by traditional forms of higher education, underprepared for the workforce, and seeking lifelong learning pathways.

 

 

From DSC:
Can we THINK BIG?

 

ThinkBiggerYet-DanielChristian-August282013

 

 

Also see:

  • Moonshot Thinking
    Moonshots live in the gray area between audacious technology and pure science fiction. Instead of a mere 10% gain, a moonshot aims for a 10x improvement over what currently exists. The combination of a huge problem, a radical solution to that problem, and the breakthrough technology that just might make that solution possible, is the essence of a moonshot.
    .
  • SolveForX.com

 

SolveForX-Dec2013

 

 

 

Is it too late to reinvent our universities? — from forbes.com by Mike Maddock

Excerpt (most emphasis from DSC):

A new survey by Moody’s Investor Service reports that more than 40% of U.S. colleges and universities face stagnant or falling tuition revenue and enrollment.

That’s four in 10!

It isn’t a misprint. For you data heads, let me quote from the news release that accompanied the research report.

Moody’s key findings include net tuition revenue declines at a projected 28% of public and 19% of private universities, with net tuition revenue growth below inflation projected for 44% of public and 42% of private universities and total enrollment declines at nearly half of public and private universities. In our prior survey, 15% of public and 18% of private universities projected net tuition revenue declines.”

 

From DSC:
Back in February of 2009, I publicly asked whether there was a bubble in higher education (see 2/16/09 entry) — being pretty sure there was one developing even before 2009.

 

HigherEd-NextBubble-DanielChristian-Feb2009

 

A year or two later, there wasn’t any doubt in my mind that there was a bubble in higher ed.  Then for me, the question became…”Has it popped yet?” 

Fast forward to 2013 and it seems I have my answer.  It’s a definite one; there’s no mistaking it.  The bubble has popped.

For those of us working within higher education, time is no longer on our side. We have been too slow to adapt and not innovative enough with our experiments. If we keep this up, I can’t help but think that the answer to Maddock’s question is a “Yes.” 

But we can change. We need to be willing to experiment, innovate, fail, pivot, try things again.  It would be good to model this for our students — as most likely, many of them are going to be doing this sort of thing throughout their lifetimes.

 


Along these lines…this addendum concerns me:


 

StudentDebtClassof2012-AvailableDec2013

 


Average student debt for the Class of 2012: $29,400


 

Excerpt from overview (emphasis DSC):

Student Debt and the Class of 2012 is our eighth annual report on the cumulative student loan debt of recent graduates from four-year colleges. Our analysis finds that the debt levels of students who graduate with loans continue to rise, with considerable variation among states as well as among colleges.

Seven in 10 college seniors who graduated in 2012 had student loan debt, with an average of $29,400 for those with loans.  The national share of seniors graduating with loans rose in recent years, from 68 percent in 2008 to 71 percent in 2012, while their debt at graduation increased by an average of six percent per year. Even though the financial crisis caused a substantial decline in private education lending while these borrowers were in school, about one-fifth (20%) of their debt is comprised of private loans, which are typically more costly and provide fewer consumer protections and repayment options than safer federal loans.

 


 

From DSC:
I think this speaks for itself…so I won’t elaborate much.  I just wanted to use this new piece of data/evidence to say that:

1)  This illustrates why there is such intense interest in MOOCs and other means of obtaining a credential, a certification, and/or any other means to make a living without having to go into a massive amount of debt.

2)  There is danger in the status quo; I can’t help but wonder if the bubble has popped already at many colleges and universities — as seen by the increased amount of aid being given and the declining revenue per student that’s often the case these days.

 

 

 

 

 

Learning from the Living (Class) Room [Grush & Christian]

CampusTechnology-12-5-13-DSCLivingClassRoom

 

Learning in ‘the Living [Class] Room’
From campustechnology.com by Mary Grush and Daniel Christian
Convergent technologies have the ability to support streams of low-cost, personalized content, both at home and in college.

 

Seeing the toll, schools revise zero tolerance — from nytimes.com by Lizette Alvarez

Excerpt (emphasis):

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Faced with mounting evidence that get-tough policies in schools are leading to arrest records, low academic achievement and high dropout rates that especially affect minority students, cities and school districts around the country are rethinking their approach to minor offenses.

Rather than push children out of school, districts like Broward are now doing the opposite: choosing to keep lawbreaking students in school, away from trouble on the streets, and offering them counseling and other assistance aimed at changing behavior.

“We are not accepting that we need to have hundreds of students getting arrested and getting records that impact their lifelong chances to get a job, go into the military, get financial aid.”

 

From DSC:
Some thoughts immediately come to mind:

Hal Plotkin’s Keynote at the 19th Annual Sloan C conference addressed this same idea of being pushed out — we should get rid of the words/phrase “drop outs” he said.  Paraphrasing Hal:

We shouldn’t use the phrase “drop outs.”  Instead we should use the phrase “pushed outs.”   It’s like walking by someone drowning and yelling at them to get out of the water — but not throwing them a lifeline. If we used the phrase pushed outs instead of drop outs, people would better understand what’s going on.

Students are being pushed out.  They’re disengaged.

From society’s standpoint, what’s better? To have an engaged student being able to pursue his/her passions, while staying out of trouble and actually enjoying learning — or — have a youth walking the streets for a time before ending up with criminal records and being locked away?  This seems to be true for the individual’s standpoint as well.

Lastly, my hunch here is that the Common Core State Standards and the enormous push for standardized testing is hurting us here — not helping us.  In fact, I’ll bet we will see a direct relationship between the amount we press these initiatives and the number of youth we push out of the system.

Let’s try some new strategies and experiments — at least to a small degree; what have we got to lose?

 

From one of my early coaches:

Always change a losing game.
Never change a winning game.

 

 

 

Yale’s struggles signal broader challenges ahead for colleges — from christenseninstitute.org by Michael B. Horn

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

For some time, the business model that supports traditional colleges and universities has been breaking. The ability to continue to implement sustaining innovations—more research faculty, more extravagant facilities, more administrative positions—that add cost by using increased revenue from a mixture of tuition, government funding, endowment returns, and donations is in peril for many institutions.

As a result, we’ve written about how there are a number of traditional higher education institutions that will likely merge or even cease to exist in the coming years. Many have suggested that this could not happen—despite the fact that a state like Georgia is already consolidating its public institutions of higher learning; that the situation is not so dire; or that it is something for which there will be a fix at some point.

The article relates how even five years after the onset of the recession, revenue sources have not bounced back at Yale: “More and more students require financial aid, endowment investment returns are still down, government funding is declining and tuition and fundraising increases are limited by the weak economy.”

The bigger point for traditional institutions of higher education beyond Yale is that with the repeated annual tuition increases over the past few decades, the middle class is increasingly being priced out of much of higher education. 
 
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