Is the next Uber coming your way? — from ibm.com IBM’s Global C-suite Study

Excerpt:

This report is IBM’s second study of the entire C-suite and the eighteenth in the ongoing series of CxO studies developed by the IBM Institute for Business Value. We now have data from more than 28,000 interviews stretching back to 2003. Our latest study draws on input from:

Chief Executive Officers (CEOs): 818
Chief Finance Officers (CFOs): 643
Chief Human Resources Officers (CHROs): 601
Chief Information Officers (CIOs): 1,805
Chief Marketing Officers (CMOs): 723
Chief Operating Officers (COOs): 657

Innovations that harness new technologies or business models, or exploit old technologies in new ways, are emerging on an almost daily basis. And the most disruptive enterprises don’t gradually displace the incumbents; they reshape entire industries, swiftly obliterating whatever stands in their way. So how are C-suite executives (CxOs) tackling the threat of competition from companies in other sectors or with very different business models? Our latest study explores what they think the future holds, how they’re identifying new trends and how they’re positioning their organizations to prosper in the “age of disruption.”

 

NextUberComingYourWay-IBM-2015

 

From DSC:
Is looking out for the next Uber just something that corporations/businesses should be doing? Isn’t this true for us as individuals as well? That is, aren’t our jobs/positions vulnerable to disruption as well? As our organizations go, so we often go.  As such, should we leave the pulse checking to others or should we be developing these types of skills ourselves? That is, shouldn’t our own gazes be set on the horizons so that we aren’t broadsided as individuals? 

Given the pace of change and given that more of us are freelancing, this is why I think that we need more such training within K-12 and higher education — programs that focus on pulse checking a variety of landscapes. Futurism is not gazing into some magic ball; such skills can be useful today.

 

 

DanielChristian-MonitoringTrends

 

 

 

Automation potential and wages for US jobs — from McKinsey Global Institute
McKinsey analyzed the detailed work activities for 750+ occupations in the US to estimate the percentage of time that could be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technology.

 

AutomationPotential-McKinsey-Jan2016

 

 

Also see:

  • Four fundamentals of workplace automation — from mckinsey.com by Michael Chui, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi
    As the automation of physical and knowledge work advances, many jobs will be redefined rather than eliminated—at least in the short term.


 

 

2016 technology predictions for CIOs — from enterprisersproject.com

Excerpts:

  • Enterprises powered by machine learning
  • Predictions on the cloud, the road, and more
  • The connected home is integrated
  • IT grows up, grows the business
  • Future disruptors based on human behavior
  • Competition heats up in the cloud

 

 

From DSC:
Below are some further items that discuss the need for some frameworks, policies, institutes, research, etc. that deal with a variety of game-changing technologies that are quickly coming down the pike (if they aren’t already upon on).  We need such things to help us create a positive future.

Also see Part I of this thread of thinking entitled, “The need for ethics, morals, policies, & serious reflection about what kind of future we want has never been greater!  There have been so many other items that came out since that posting, I felt like I needed to add another one here.

What kind of future do we want? How are we going to insure that we get there?

As the saying goes…”Just because we can do something, doesn’t mean we should.” Or another saying comes to my mind…”What could possibly go wrong with this? It’s a done deal.”

While some of the items below should have very positive impacts on society, I do wonder how long it will take the hackers — the ones who are bent on wreaking havoc — to mess up some of these types of applications…with potentially deadly consequences? Security-related concerns must be dealt with here.


 

5 amazing and alarming things that may be done with your DNA — from washingtonpost.com by Matt McFarland

Excerpt (emphasis DSC):

Venter is leading efforts to use digital technology to analyze humans in ways we never have before, and the results will have huge implications for society. The latest findings he described are currently being written up for scientific publications. Venter didn’t want to usurp the publications, so he wouldn’t dive into extensive detail of how his team has made these breakthroughs. But what he did share offers an exciting and concerning overview of what lies ahead for humanity. There are social, legal and ethical implications to start considering. Here are five examples of how digitizing DNA will change the human experience:

 

 

These are the decisions the Pentagon wants to leave to robots — from defenseone.com by Patrick Tucker
The U.S. military believes its battlefield edge will increasingly depend on automation and artificial intelligence.

Excerpt:

Conducting cyber defensive operations, electronic warfare, and over-the-horizon targeting. “You cannot have a human operator operating at human speed fighting back at determined cyber tech,” Work said. “You are going to need have a learning machine that does that.” He did not say  whether the Pentagon is pursuing the autonomous or automatic deployment of offensive cyber capabilities, a controversial idea to be sure. He also highlighted a number of ways that artificial intelligence could help identify new waveforms to improve electronic warfare.

 

 

Britain should lead way on genetically engineered babies, says Chief Scientific Adviser — from.telegraph.co.uk by Sarah Knapton
Sir Mark Walport, who advises the government on scientific matters, said it could be acceptable to genetically edit human embryos

Excerpt:

Last week more than 150 scientists and campaigners called for a worldwide ban on the practice, claiming it could ‘irrevocably alter the human species’ and lead to a world where inequality and discrimination were ‘inscribed onto the human genome.’

But at a conference in London [on 12/8/15], Sir Mark Walport, who advises the government on scientific matters, said he believed there were ‘circumstances’ in which the genetic editing of human embyros could be ‘acceptable’.

 

 

Cyborg Future: Engineers Build a Chip That Is Part Biological and Part Synthetic — from futurism.com

Excerpt:

Engineers have succeeded in combining an integrated chip with an artificial lipid bilayer membrane containing ATP-powered ion pumps, paving the way for more such artificial systems that combine the biological with the mechanical down the road.

 

 

Robots expected to run half of Japan by 2035 — from engadget.com by Andrew Tarantola
Something-something ‘robot overlords’.

Excerpt:

Data analysts Nomura Research Institute (NRI), led by researcher Yumi Wakao, figure that within the next 20 years, nearly half of all jobs in Japan could be accomplished by robots. Working with Professor Michael Osborne from Oxford University, who had previously investigated the same matter in both the US and UK, the NRI team examined more than 600 jobs and found that “up to 49 percent of jobs could be replaced by computer systems,” according to Wakao.

 

 

 

Cambridge University is opening a £10 million centre to study the impact of AI on humanity — from businessinsider.com by Sam Shead

Excerpt:

Cambridge University announced on [12/3/15] that it is opening a new £10 million research centre to study the impact of artificial intelligence on humanity.

The 806-year-old university said the centre, being funded with a grant from non-profit foundation The Leverhulme Trust, will explore the opportunities and challenges facing humanity as a result of further developments in artificial intelligence.

 

Cambridge-Center-Dec2015

 

 

Tech leaders launch nonprofit to save the world from killer robots — from csmonitor.com by Jessica Mendoza
Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and other tech titans have invested $1 billion in a nonprofit that would help direct artificial intelligence technology toward positive human impact. 

 

 

 

 

2016 will be a pivotal year for social robots — from therobotreport.com by Frank Tobe
1,000 Peppers are selling each month from a big-dollar venture between SoftBank, Alibaba and Foxconn; Jibo just raised another $16 million as it prepares to deliver 7,500+ units in Mar/Apr of 2016; and Buddy, Rokid, Sota and many others are poised to deliver similar forms of social robots.

Excerpt:

These new robots, and the proliferation of mobile robot butlers, guides and kiosks, promise to recognize your voice and face and help you plan your calendar, provide reminders, take pictures of special moments, text, call and videoconference, order fast food, keep watch on your house or office, read recipes, play games, read emotions and interact accordingly, and the list goes on. They are attempting to be analogous to a sharp administrative assistant that knows your schedule, contacts and interests and engages with you about them, helping you stay informed, connected and active.

 

 

IBM opens its artificial mind to the world — from fastcompany.com by Sean Captain
IBM is letting companies plug into its Watson artificial intelligence engine to make sense of speech, text, photos, videos, and sensor data.

Excerpt:

Artificial intelligence is the big, oft-misconstrued catchphrase of the day, making headlines recently with the launch of the new OpenAI organization, backed by Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and other tech luminaries. AI is neither a synonym for killer robots nor a technology of the future, but one that is already finding new signals in the vast noise of collected data, ranging from weather reports to social media chatter to temperature sensor readings. Today IBM has opened up new access to its AI system, called Watson, with a set of application programming interfaces (APIs) that allow other companies and organizations to feed their data into IBM’s big brain for analysis.

 

 

GE wants to give industrial machines their own social network with Predix Cloud — from fastcompany.com by Sean Captain
GE is selling a new service that promises to predict when a machine will break down…so technicians can preemptively fix it.

 

 

Foresight 2020: The future is filled with 50 billion connected devices — from ibmbigdatahub.com by Erin Monday

Excerpt:

By 2020, there will be over 50 billion connected devices generating continuous data.

This figure is staggering, but is it really a surprise? The world has come a long way from 1992, when the number of computers was roughly equivalent to the population of San Jose. Today, in 2015, there are more connected devices out there than there are human beings. Ubiquitous connectivity is very nearly a reality. Every day, we get a little closer to a time where businesses, governments and consumers are connected by a fluid stream of data and analytics. But what’s driving all this growth?

 

 

Designing robots that learn as effortlessly as babies — from singularityhub.com by Shelly Fan

Excerpt:

A wide-eyed, rosy-cheeked, babbling human baby hardly looks like the ultimate learning machine.

But under the hood, an 18-month-old can outlearn any state-of-the-art artificial intelligence algorithm.

Their secret sauce?

They watch; they imitate; and they extrapolate.

Artificial intelligence researchers have begun to take notice. This week, two separate teams dipped their toes into cognitive psychology and developed new algorithms that teach machines to learn like babies. One instructs computers to imitate; the other, to extrapolate.

 

 

Researchers have found a new way to get machines to learn faster — from fortune.com by  Hilary Brueck

Excerpt:

An international team of data scientists is proud to announce the very latest in machine learning: they’ve built a program that learns… programs. That may not sound impressive at first blush, but making a machine that can learn based on a single example is something that’s been extremely hard to do in the world of artificial intelligence. Machines don’t learn like humans—not as fast, and not as well. And even with this research, they still can’t.

 

 

Team showcase how good Watson is at learning — from adigaskell.org

Excerpt:

Artificial intelligence has undoubtedly come a long way in the last few years, but there is still much to be done to make it intuitive to use.  IBM’s Watson has been one of the most well known exponents during this time, but despite it’s initial success, there are issues to overcome with it.

A team led by Georgia Tech are attempting to do just that.  They’re looking to train Watson to get better at returning answers to specific queries.

 

 

Why The Internet of Things will drive a Knowledge Revolution. — from linkedin.com by David Evans

Excerpt:

As these machines inevitably connect to the Internet, they will ultimately connect to each other so they can share, and collaborate on their own findings. In fact, in 2014 machines got their own ”World Wide Web” called RoboEarth, in which to share knowledge with one another. …
The implications of all of this are at minimum twofold:

  • The way we generate knowledge is going to change dramatically in the coming years.
  • Knowledge is about to increase at an exponential rate.

What we choose to do with this newfound knowledge is of course up to us. We are about to face some significant challenges at scales we have yet to experience.

 

 

Drone squad to be launched by Tokyo police — from bbc.com

Excerpt:

A drone squad, designed to locate and – if necessary – capture nuisance drones flown by members of the public, is to be launched by police in Tokyo.

 

 

An advance in artificial intelligence rivals human abilities — from todayonline.com by John Markoff

Excerpt:

NEW YORK — Computer researchers reported artificial-intelligence advances [on Dec 10] that surpassed human capabilities for a narrow set of vision-related tasks.

The improvements are noteworthy because so-called machine-vision systems are becoming commonplace in many aspects of life, including car-safety systems that detect pedestrians and bicyclists, as well as in video game controls, Internet search and factory robots.

 

 

Somewhat related:

Novo Nordisk, IBM Watson Health to create ‘virtual doctor’ — from wsj.com by Denise Roland
Software could dispense treatment advice for diabetes patients

Excerpt:

Novo Nordisk A/S is teaming up with IBM Watson Health, a division of International Business Machines Corp., to create a “virtual doctor” for diabetes patients that could dispense treatment advice such as insulin dosage.

The Danish diabetes specialist hopes to use IBM’s supercomputer platform, Watson, to analyze health data from diabetes patients to help them manage their disease.

 

 

Why Google’s new quantum computer could launch an artificial intelligence arms race — from washingtonpost.com

 

 

 

8 industries robots will completely transform by 2025 — from techinsider.io

 

 

 

Addendums on 12/17/15:

Russia and China are building highly autonomous killer robots — from businessinsider.com.au by Danielle Muoi

Excerpt:

Russia and China are creating highly autonomous weapons, more commonly referred to as killer robots, and it’s putting pressure on the Pentagon to keep up, according to US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work. During a national-security forum on Monday, Work said that China and Russia are heavily investing in a roboticized army, according to a report from Defense One.

Your Algorithmic Self Meets Super-Intelligent AI — from techcrunch.com by Jarno M. Koponen

Excerpt:

At the same time, your data and personalized experiences are used to develop and train the machine learning systems that are powering the Siris, Watsons, Ms and Cortanas. Be it a speech recognition solution or a recommendation algorithm, your actions and personal data affect how these sophisticated systems learn more about you and the world around you.

The less explicit fact is that your diverse interactions — your likes, photos, locations, tags, videos, comments, route selections, recommendations and ratings — feed learning systems that could someday transform into superintelligent AIs with unpredictable consequences.

As of today, you can’t directly affect how your personal data is used in these systems

 

Addendum on 12/20/15:

 

Addendum on 12/21/15:

  • Facewatch ‘thief recognition’ CCTV on trial in UK stores — from bbc.com
    Excerpts (emphasis DSC):
    Face-recognition camera systems should be used by police, he tells me. “The technology’s here, and we need to think about what is a proportionate response that respects people’s privacy,” he says.

    “The public need to ask themselves: do they want six million cameras painted red at head height looking at them?

 

Addendum on 1/13/16:

 

Ed Dept pilot opens aid to alternative credentialing — from educationdive.com

Excerpt:

  • The U.S. Department of Education on Wednesday [10/14/15] unveiled the Educational Quality Through Innovation Partnerships (EQUIP) program, an experimental pathway to Title IV funding for partnerships between higher ed institutions and nontraditional programs.
  • The program has been brewing for some time under the experimental sites initiative, though it will remain limited to about 10 applications from applicable partnerships.
  • Likely candidates for participation in the pilot include coding bootcamps, MOOC providers, and various short-term certificate and corporate training programs, and according to Inside Higher Ed, inclusion will also give institutions freedom from a federal aid ban on colleges that outsource over half of their content or instruction to an unaccredited third party.

 

Also see:

Alternatives-Funding-Gov-10-14-15

Excerpt:

Background: The landscape for learning in postsecondary education is undergoing tremendous development. Innovations in technology, pedagogy, and business models are driving rapid change. While much of this development has been led by traditional postsecondary institutions, there are also significant educational changes occurring outside of the traditional educational sector. Non-traditional providers have begun to offer educational opportunities to students in new ways, such as through intensive short-term programs, online or blended approaches, or personalized/adaptive learning. These opportunities have the potential to advance goals such as increased equity and access, more flexible and personalized learning, high-quality student outcomes, and reduced costs.

Although some of these educational opportunities show promise in advancing these priorities, they remain out of reach for many students, particularly those from low-income backgrounds, in part because they generally do not provide students with access to title IV aid. The unavailability of title IV aid could increase the potential for educational inequity, because only those students with significant financial resources are able to enroll in these innovative programs, and it may constrain the growth of promising new approaches to learning.

 

Reinventing the company — from economist.com
Entrepreneurs are redesigning the basic building block of capitalism

Excerpt:

NOW that Uber is muscling in on their trade, London’s cabbies have become even surlier than usual. Meanwhile, the world’s hoteliers are grappling with Airbnb, and hardware-makers with cloud computing. Across industries, disrupters are reinventing how the business works. Less obvious, and just as important, they are also reinventing what it is to be a company.

To many managers, corporate life continues to involve dealing with largely anonymous owners, most of them represented by fund managers who buy and sell shares listed on a stock exchange. In insurgent companies, by contrast, the coupling between ownership and responsibility is tight (see article). Founders, staff and backers exert control directly. It is still early days but, if this innovation spreads, it could transform the way companies work.

New companies also exploit new technology, which enables them to go global without being big themselves. Startups used to face difficult choices about when to invest in large and lumpy assets such as property and computer systems. Today they can expand very fast by buying in services as and when they need them. They can incorporate online for a few hundred dollars, raise money from crowdsourcing sites such as Kickstarter, hire programmers from Upwork, rent computer-processing power from Amazon, find manufacturers on Alibaba, arrange payments systems at Square, and immediately set about conquering the world. Vizio was the bestselling brand of television in America in 2010 with just 200 employees. WhatsApp persuaded Facebook to buy it for $19 billion despite having fewer than 60 employees and revenues of $20m.

 

tvOS: The days of developing for a “TV”-based OS are now upon us.

Apple puts out call for Apple TV apps — from bizjournals.com by Gina Hall

Excerpt:

The company put out the call for app submissions on Wednesday for tvOS. The Apple TV App Store will debut as Apple TV units are shipped out next week.

The main attraction of Apple TV is a remote with a glass touch surface and a Siri button that allows users to search by voice. Apple tvOS is capable of running apps ranging from Airbnb to Zillow and games like Crossy Road. Another major perk of Apple TV will be universal search, which allows users to scan for movies and television shows and see results from multiple sources, instead of having to conduct the same search within multiple apps.

Apple CEO Tim Cook hopes the device will simplify how viewers consume content.

 

 

 

From DSC:
The days of developing for a “TV”-based OS are now upon us:  tvOS is here.  I put “TV” in quotes because what we know of the television in the year 2015 may look entirely different 5-10 years from now.

Once developed, things like lifelong learning, web-based learner profiles, badges and/or certifications, communities of practice, learning hubs, smart classrooms, virtual tutoring, virtual field trips, AI-based digital learning playlists, and more will never be the same again.

 

 

The Living [Class] Room -- by Daniel Christian -- July 2012 -- a second device used in conjunction with a Smart/Connected TV

 

 

 

MoreChoiceMoreControl-DSC

 

 

Also see:

 

 

 

Addendum on 10/26/15:
The article below discusses one piece of the bundle of technologies that I’m trying to get at via my Learning from the Living [Class] Room Vision:

  • No More Pencils, No More Books — from by Will Oremus
    Artificially intelligent software is replacing the textbook—and reshaping American education.
    Excerpt:
    ALEKS starts everyone at the same point. But from the moment students begin to answer the practice questions that it automatically generates for them, ALEKS’ machine-learning algorithms are analyzing their responses to figure out which concepts they understand and which they don’t. A few wrong answers to a given type of question, and the program may prompt them to read some background materials, watch a short video lecture, or view some hints on what they might be doing wrong. But if they’re breezing through a set of questions on, say, linear inequalities, it may whisk them on to polynomials and factoring. Master that, and ALEKS will ask if they’re ready to take a test. Pass, and they’re on to exponents—unless they’d prefer to take a detour into a different topic, like data analysis and probability. So long as they’ve mastered the prerequisites, which topic comes next is up to them.
 

Imagine what learning could look like w/ the same concepts found in Skreens!


From DSC:
Imagine what learning could look like w/ the same concepts found in the
Skreens kickstarter campaign?  Where you can use your mobile device to direct what you are seeing and interacting with on the larger screen?  Hmmm… very interesting indeed! With applications not only in the home (and on the road), but also in the active classroom, the boardroom, and the training room.


See
Skreens.com
&
Learning from the Living [Class] Room


 

DanielChristian-AVariationOnTheSkreensTheme-9-29-15

 

 

Skreens-Sept2015Kickstarter

 

Skreens2-Sept2015Kickstarter

 

 

The Living [Class] Room -- by Daniel Christian -- July 2012 -- a second device used in conjunction with a Smart/Connected TV

From DSC:
Some of the phrases and concepts that come to my mind:

  • tvOS-based apps
  • Virtual field trips while chatting or videoconferencing with fellow learners about that experience
  • Virtual tutoring
  • Global learning for K-12, higher ed, the corporate world
  • Web-based collaborations and communications
  • Ubiquitous learning
  • Transmedia
  • Analytics / data mining / web-based learner profiles
  • Communities of practice
  • Lifelong learning
  • 24×7 access
  • Reinvent
  • Staying relevant
  • More choice. More control.
  • Participation.
  • MOOCs — or what they will continue to morph into
  • Second screens
  • Mobile learning — and the ability to quickly tie into your learning networks
  • Ability to contact teachers, professors, trainers, specialists, librarians, tutors and more
  • Language translation
  • Informal and formal learning, blended learning, active learning, self-directed learning
  • The continued convergence of the telephone, the television, and the computer
  • Cloud-based apps for learning
  • Flipping the classroom
  • Homeschooling
  • Streams of content
  • …and more!

 

 

 

 

Addendum:

Check out this picture from Meet the winners of #RobotLaunch2015

Packed house at WilmerHale for the Robot Launch 2015 judging – although 2/3rds of the participants were attending and pitching remotely via video and web conferencing.

 

Now we’re talking! One step closer! “The future of TV is apps.” — per Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook

OneStepCloser-DanielChristian-Sept2015

 

From DSC:
We’ll also be seeing the integration of the areas listed below with this type of “TV”-based OS/platform:

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Data mining and analytics
  • Learning recommendation engines
  • Digital learning playlists
  • New forms of Human Computer Interfaces (HCI)
  • Intelligent tutoring
  • Social learning / networks
  • Videoconferencing with numerous other learners from across the globe
  • Virtual tutoring, virtual field trips, and virtual schools
  • Online learning to the Nth degree
  • Web-based learner profiles
  • Multimedia (including animations, simulations, and more)
  • Advanced forms of digital storytelling
  • and, most assuredly, more choice & more control.

Competency-based education and much lower cost alternatives could also be possible with this type of learning environment. The key will be to watch — or better yet, to design and create — what becomes of what we’re currently calling the television, and what new affordances/services the “TV” begins to offer us.

 

MoreChoiceMoreControl-DSC

 

 

 

From Apple’s website:

Apple Brings Innovation Back to Television with The All-New Apple TV
The App Store, Siri Remote & tvOS are Coming to Your Living Room

Excerpt:

SAN FRANCISCO — September 9, 2015 — Apple® today announced the all-new Apple TV®, bringing a revolutionary experience to the living room based on apps built for the television. Apps on Apple TV let you choose what to watch and when you watch it. The new Apple TV’s remote features Siri®, so you can search with your voice for TV shows and movies across multiple content providers simultaneously.

The all-new Apple TV is built from the ground up with a new generation of high-performance hardware and introduces an intuitive and fun user interface using the Siri Remote™. Apple TV runs the all-new tvOS™ operating system, based on Apple’s iOS, enabling millions of iOS developers to create innovative new apps and games specifically for Apple TV and deliver them directly to users through the new Apple TV App Store™.

tvOS is the new operating system for Apple TV, and the tvOS SDK provides tools and APIs for developers to create amazing experiences for the living room the same way they created a global app phenomenon for iPhone® and iPad®. The new, more powerful Apple TV features the Apple-designed A8 chip for even better performance so developers can build engaging games and custom content apps for the TV. tvOS supports key iOS technologies including Metal™, for detailed graphics, complex visual effects and Game Center, to play and share games with friends.

 

Addendum on 9/11/15:

 

White House: Innovation in Higher Education — from elearnspace.org by George Siemens

Excerpt from George’s posting (emphasis DSC):

A few weeks ago, I received an invitation to the White House. The invitation was somewhat cryptic, but basically stated that the focus on the meeting was on quality and innovation.

2. Higher education generally has no clue about what’s brewing in the marketplace as a whole. The change pressures that exist now are not ones that the existing higher education model can ignore. The trends – competency-based learning, unbundling, startups & capital inflow, new pedagogical models, technology, etc – will change higher education dramatically.

3. No one knows what HE is becoming. Forget the think tanks and the consultants and the keynote speakers. No one knows how these trends will track or what the university will look like in the future. This unknowability stems from HE being a complex systems with many interacting elements. We can’t yet see how these will connect and inter-relate going forward. The best strategy in a time of uncertainty is not to seek or force the way forward, but to enter a cycle of experimentation. The Cynefin Framework provides the best guidance that I’ve seen on how to function in our current context.

7. Expect a future of far greater corporate involvement in HE. VC funds are flowing aggressively and these funders are also targeting policy change at local, state, and national levels. We aren’t used to this level of lobbying and faculty is unprepared to respond to this. Expect it. Your next faculty meeting will involve a new student success system, a personalized learning system, an analytics system, a new integrated bootcamp model, new competency software, new cloud-based computing systems, and so on. Expect it. It’s coming.

8. Expect M & A activities in higher education. I fully anticipate some combination of partnering with companies like General Assembly, creation of in-house bootcamps, or outright acquisitions by innovative universities.

 

Higher Education is moving from a 4 year relationship to students to a 40 year relationship.

 

From DSC:

[First of all, if you read this George, thanks for sharing your experiences, reflections, and recommendations from your recent trip to the White House. I/we appreciate it.]

I can’t agree with — and emphasize — George’s second point (above) strongly enough. Too often, I think we have our heads and eyes pointed downward, busy in our work; we fail to look up and see what’s happening all around us. We neglect to see the trends that are occurring and that will likely have an impact on us. If we were doing this, as we should be doing, several of our priorities would instantly change and there would be a much stronger sense of urgency in identifying some new directions/strategic initiatives/experiments within institutions of traditional higher education.

I don’t see our institutions competing with our typical/normal peer groups of the past. More and more, I think that we are competing with the new models, startups, and alternatives to traditional higher education. Yes, traditional institutions of higher education can respond and change — some have been doing so already. But how many of our institutions within the overall learning ecosystems are not experimenting? How many of our institutions have their heads buried in the sand, waiting for the good old days to return? Those days are not going to return. They’re gone. That ride is over. We need to wake up and adapt before the alternatives gain momentum (perhaps even borrowing some strategies from the alternatives, hmm?).

This is why I’m big on experimentation and the implementation of TrimTab Groups within higher education.

Finally, you may not like the word “disruption” and you may think it’s overused. But I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet.

As George warns in his posting, there are dramatic changes to higher education coming down the pike. George is not one to hype things up — he is a level-headed deep thinker. I’d suggest that we listen to what he’s saying to us via his experiences and reflections from participating in his recent meetings/conversations held at the White House.

 

RealEstate-HigherEd-DanielSChristian11-1-13

 

TheTrimtabInHigherEducation-DanielChristian

 

What might our learning ecosystems look like by 2025? [Christian]

This posting can also be seen out at evoLLLution.com (where LLL stands for lifelong learning):

DanielChristian-evoLLLutionDotComArticle-7-31-15

 

From DSC:
What might our learning ecosystems look like by 2025?

In the future, learning “channels” will offer more choice, more control.  They will be far more sophisticated than what we have today.

 

MoreChoiceMoreControl-DSC

 

That said, what the most important aspects of online course design end up being 10 years from now depends upon what types of “channels” I think there will be and what might be offered via those channels. By channels, I mean forms, methods, and avenues of learning that a person could pursue and use. In 2015, some example channels might be:

  • Attending a community college, a college or a university to obtain a degree
  • Obtaining informal learning during an internship
  • Using social media such as Twitter or LinkedIn
  • Reading blogs, books, periodicals, etc.

In 2025, there will likely be new and powerful channels for learning that will be enabled by innovative forms of communications along with new software, hardware, technologies, and other advancements. For examples, one could easily imagine:

  • That the trajectory of deep learning and artificial intelligence will continue, opening up new methods of how we might learn in the future
  • That augmented and virtual reality will allow for mobile learning to the Nth degree
  • That the trend of Competency Based Education (CBE) and microcredentials may be catapulted into the mainstream via the use of big data-related affordances

Due to time and space limitations, I’ll focus here on the more formal learning channels that will likely be available online in 2025. In that environment, I think we’ll continue to see different needs and demands – thus we’ll still need a menu of options. However, the learning menu of 2025 will be more personalized, powerful, responsive, sophisticated, flexible, granular, modularized, and mobile.

 


Highly responsive, career-focused track


One part of the menu of options will focus on addressing the demand for more career-focused information and learning that is available online (24×7). Even in 2015, with the U.S. government saying that 40% of today’s workers now have ‘contingent’ jobs and others saying that percentage will continue climbing to 50% or more, people will be forced to learn quickly in order to stay marketable.  Also, the 1/2 lives of information may not last very long, especially if we continue on our current trajectory of exponential change (vs. linear change).

However, keeping up with that pace of change is currently proving to be out of reach for most institutions of higher education, especially given the current state of accreditation and governance structures throughout higher education as well as how our current teaching and learning environment is set up (i.e., the use of credit hours, 4 year degrees, etc.).  By 2025, accreditation will have been forced to change to allow for alternative forms of learning and for methods of obtaining credentials. Organizations that offer channels with a more vocational bent to them will need to be extremely responsive, as they attempt to offer up-to-date, highly-relevant information that will immediately help people be more employable and marketable. Being nimble will be the name of the game in this arena. Streams of content will be especially important here. There may not be enough time to merit creating formal, sophisticated courses on many career-focused topics.

 

StreamsOfContent-DSC

 

With streams of content, the key value provided by institutions will be to curate the most relevant, effective, reliable, up-to-date content…so one doesn’t have to drink from the Internet’s firehose of information. Such streams of content will also offer constant potential, game-changing scenarios and will provide a pulse check on a variety of trends that could affect an industry. Social-based learning will be key here, as learners contribute to each other’s learning. Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) will need to be knowledgeable facilitators of learning; but given the pace of change, true experts will be rare indeed.

Microcredentials, nanodegrees, competency-based education, and learning from one’s living room will be standard channels in 2025.  Each person may have a web-based learner profile by then and the use of big data will keep that profile up-to-date regarding what any given individual has been learning about and what skills they have mastered.

For example, even currently in 2015, a company called StackUp creates their StackUp Report to add to one’s resume or grades, asserting that their services can give “employers and schools new metrics to evaluate your passion, interests, and intellectual curiosity.” Stackup captures, categorizes, and scores everything you read and study online. So they can track your engagement on a given website, for example, and then score the time spent doing so. This type of information can then provide insights into the time you spend learning.

Project teams and employers could create digital playlists that prospective employees or contractors will have to advance through; and such teams and employers will be watching to see how the learners perform in proving their competencies.

However, not all learning will be in the fast lane and many people won’t want all of their learning to be constantly in the high gears. In fact, the same learner could be pursuing avenues in multiple tracks, traveling through their learning-related journeys at multiple speeds.

 


The more traditional liberal arts track


To address these varied learning preferences, another part of the menu will focus on channels that don’t need to change as frequently.  The focus here won’t be on quickly-moving streams of content, but the course designers in this track can take a bit more time to offer far more sophisticated options and activities that people will enjoy going through.

Along these lines, some areas of the liberal arts* will fit in nicely here.

*Speaking of the liberal arts, a brief but important tangent needs to be addressed, for strategic purposes. While the following statement will likely be highly controversial, I’m going to say it anyway.  Online learning could be the very thing that saves the liberal arts.

Why do I say this? Because as the price of higher education continues to increase, the dynamics and expectations of learners continue to change. As the prices continue to increase, so do peoples’ expectations and perspectives. So it may turn out that people are willing to pay a dollar range that ends up being a fraction of today’s prices. But such greatly reduced prices won’t likely be available in face-to-face environments, as offering these types of learning environment is expensive. However, such discounted prices can and could be offered via online-based environments. So, much to the chagrin of many in academia, online learning could be the very thing that provides the type of learning, growth, and some of the experiences that liberal arts programs have been about for centuries. Online learning can offer a lifelong supply of the liberal arts.

But I digress…
By 2025, a Subject Matter Expert (SME) will be able to offer excellent, engaging courses chocked full of the use of:

  • Engaging story/narrative
  • Powerful collaboration and communication tools
  • Sophisticated tracking and reporting
  • Personalized learning, tech-enabled scaffolding, and digital learning playlists
  • Game elements or even, in some cases, multiplayer games
  • Highly interactive digital videos with built-in learning activities
  • Transmedia-based outlets and channels
  • Mobile-based learning using AR, VR, real-world assignments, objects, and events
  • …and more.

However, such courses won’t be able to be created by one person. Their sophistication will require a team of specialists – and likely a list of vendors, algorithms, and/or open source-based tools – to design and deliver this type of learning track.

 


Final reflections


The marketplaces involving education-related content and technologies will likely look different. There could be marketplaces for algorithms as well as for very granular learning modules. In fact, it could be that modularization will be huge by 2025, allowing digital learning playlists to be built by an SME, a Provost, and/or a Dean (in addition to the aforementioned employer or project team).  Any assistance that may be required by a learner will be provided either via technology (likely via an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled resource) and/or via a SME.

We will likely either have moved away from using Learning Management Systems (LMSs) or those LMSs will allow for access to far larger, integrated learning ecosystems.

Functionality wise, collaboration tools will still be important, but they might be mind-blowing to us living in 2015.  For example, holographic-based communications could easily be commonplace by 2025. Where tools like IBM’s Watson, Microsoft’s Cortana, Google’s Deepmind, and Apple’s Siri end up in our future learning ecosystems is hard to tell, but will likely be there. New forms of Human Computer Interaction (HCI) such as Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) will likely be mainstream by 2025.

While the exact menu of learning options is unclear, what is clear is that change is here today and will likely be here tomorrow. Those willing to experiment, to adapt, and to change have a far greater likelihood of surviving and thriving in our future learning ecosystems.

 

From DSC:
The phenomenon I’m thinking about are:

  1. We in higher education are so peer-oriented that we don’t lead.  That is, if our peers would do X, then we could do X.  But if they aren’t doing it, we can’t or shouldn’t do it either.  As Barnds says in his article below, “We continue to play a game of chicken as we wait for a so-called peer to do what we need to do.”

  2. We are so peer-oriented that we don’t see that if we don’t lead and care far less about what our peers are doing, we risk being in a situation where we’re simply shifting chairs around, and doing so aboard the Titanic.

  3. Why do I say Titanic? Because if we don’t address the growing chasm between what the corporate world wants/expects and what learners/families expect, we risk creating a void that WILL BE filled by another completely new system or systems. There WILL BE disruption if we don’t address the gaps. People will find other routes.

  4. Folks in leadership positions within higher education have no choice but to deal with risk.  If you don’t do anything, you are courting an enormous amount of risk. You are running a very dangerous experiment and your institution will likely be a shadow of what it once was (if it’s even able to remain open at all in the future). But if you change something — such as lowering the price of obtaining a degree — you also face risk. So risk comes with the job; there’s no escaping it.  But just don’t make the mistake of thinking there’s no risk in pursuing the status quo.

 


 

The Best Pricing Model: Transparency — from insidehighered.com by W. Kent Barnds

Excerpts:

The current funding model for higher education is broken and we can only blame ourselves for creating a norm of bargain basement pricing for those families in the know, opaque business models and unexplained annual increases based more on competitors’ current price tag rather than our actual campus needs. We continue to play a game of chicken as we wait for a so-called peer to do what we need to do.

There are significant risks involved in changing how we discuss pricing, cost and value. Private colleges, as tuition-dependent institutions, are hesitant to try something new, especially if all of our peers stick with the currently murky language and approaches to cost and price.

As an industry, we need to work at getting it right for our students, which includes lowering actual costs for students and maintaining sufficient revenue to deliver on our mission.

Further, colleges need to clearly describe their business model to their campus constituents, students and parents of current students and delineate how the annual operation is funded. Finally, leaders need to acknowledge that percentage increases in tuition costs cannot continue in perpetuity. At some point we will price ourselves out of the market and into bankruptcy.

Seldom is there a clear statement that all students will pay at least $XXXX less to attend the next year. I realize this is pretty tricky — saying that the education offered is less expensive than the previous year — but this is exactly what’s missing and why many of the efforts so far seem to miss the mark.

 

Don’t get Ubered: Be an instigator of digital disruption — from by Minda Zetlin

Excerpts (emphasis DSC):

It’s a common complaint from business leaders: IT takes too long to give us what we need. Not only is creating impatience in business leaders bad for a CIO’s reputation, it also leads to growth in “shadow” or “rogue” IT, as frustrated business leaders seek a more immediate solution. The answer is for IT to speed up its work, but that’s a tall order for many, who already feel they’re moving as fast as they can and then some.

In an interview with The Enterprisers Project, Emmet B. Keeffe, CEO of the software visualization company iRise, explains how technology leaders can and must speed up their projects.

Keeffe: Don’t settle for a seat at the table. Every CIO faces his or her own challenges, but one thing we’ve been hearing for something like a decade is business and IT alignment and getting a seat at the table. But at this stage of the game, when software and the Internet define most businesses to their users, being at the table isn’t enough. CIOs need to be calling the business to the table, and presenting innovative ways to thrive.

Rise recently held a CIO event in New York, and though it wasn’t explicitly on the agenda, the one thing every participant talked about was disruption and the potential for startups to Uber them with a new digital business model, or for established competitors to beat them to a new digitally driven punch. They were focused on what was going on in the competitive landscape, figuring out how to act immediately on opportunity, and how to make sure their business leaders were listening.

So if there are any CIOs left out there still calling alignment a job well-done, my advice would be to keep pushing to a higher level, instigating strategic change rather than only falling in line with it.

 

 

 

 
 

From DSC:
The article below relates well to this graphic from sparks & honey.

NOTE:
Higher education is included in this discussion. If we think that we’re not included — and the other forces continue that are putting the heat in higher ed’s kitchen — it’s highly likely that other forms and channels of learning will fill the voids and gaps in what people are looking for and are willing to pay for.

 

ExponentialNotLinearSparksNHoney-Spring2013

 

 

How the new economy is changing the workplace, part II  — from workdesign.com by Bob Fox; also see part I and part III

Excerpts:

Change is a constant, but when the speed of change increases it becomes a much different animal. Incremental business improvements are much easier to manage, and are a necessary part of all businesses. We tend to think linearly, so disruptive change is the real risk. The challenge with disruptive change is that it is often unpredictable and it generally conflicts with the core competency of a business. What’s more, it can come from other industries.

While disruptive change and innovation are likely the cause, it’s the inability of most businesses to deal with or react to those challenges over time that’s the death knell. We think tomorrow will be just like today, and we don’t have the workspaces to effectively share, question, and iterate ideas and leverage innovation to sustain our organizations through tough challenges.

 

There is a widespread human tendency, with which we are all of us familiar, that can be simply expressed as the “kink” in the curve where the past meets the future. The exponential line of human technological progress, long driven by information and for the past generation by the power of the chip, is kinked. It is kinked, inevitably, at the present. — Nigel Cameron

 

If I had told you 15 years ago that in the future you would have a device that you could carry in your pocket where you can get your mail, make a video call, carry thousands of your favorite songs, take pictures and videos and share them, check the stock market in real time, get the latest headlines immediately, get directions instantly to wherever you wanted to go, make a dinner or hotel reservation, invite your friends and that all of it would be essentially free, you would have thought I was some kind of nut. But look at us now.

 

From DSC:
For institutions of higher education, we need to be able to experiment…to fail…to succeed….to iterate until we find out what’s working and what’s not working. We need more innovative cultures. We need more Trimtab Groups.

For K-12 and higher education, we need to teach our kids how to run their own businesses…as it’s highly likely they will be a part of the contingent workforce at some point(s) in their lifetimes.

 

TheTrimtabInHigherEducation-DanielChristian

 

 

Also related/see:

  • The Digital Vortex, where disruption is constant and innovation rules — from blogs.cisco.com by Joseph Bradley
    Excerpt (emphasis DSC):
    Given the breakneck pace of technology change, business leaders can be forgiven for feeling as if they are living in a vortex. That’s because, in many ways, they are.In a real vortex, rotational forces draw everything to the center, where objects collide and combine in unpredictable ways. To me, that sounds like business as usual in the Internet of Everything (IoE) era.The Digital Vortex is the inevitable movement of industries toward a “digital center” in which business models, offerings, and value chains are digitized to the maximum extent possible. The result is “components” that can be readily combined to create new disruptions that blur the lines between industries.

 

Digital Disruption by Industry. Source: Global Center for Digital Business Transformation, 2015

 

The results help to clarify digital disruption and how business leaders view it. Here are some key findings:

  • Disruption Looms… Four of today’s top 10 incumbents (in terms of market share) in each industry will be displaced by digital disruption in the next five years. The threat extends not only to displacement of big companies, but also to the very existence of entire industries.
  • …As Executives “Wait and See.” Digital disruption has not received board-level attention in about 45 percent of companies (on average across industries). Moreover, 43 percent of companies either do not acknowledge the risk of digital disruption, or have not addressed it sufficiently. Nearly a third are taking a “wait and see” approach. Only 25 percent describe their response to digital disruption as proactive.
  • In the Digital Vortex, No Safe Haven. The industry that will experience the most digital disruption between now and 2020 is technology products and services. Pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, is likely to experience the least amount of digital disruption. However, all industries will see competitive upheavals as innovations become increasingly exponential.
  • Disrupt, or Be Disrupted. Based on their ranking and placement within the Digital Vortex, firms can evaluate the speed at which their industry will experience disruption. They then can choose to “disrupt themselves” or potentially be displaced by a new business model.
 
© 2025 | Daniel Christian