From DSC:
One more straw is not what higher education needs in 2013…or is it?
On 12/27/2012,
in budgets, business side of he, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, economics, legislatures / government / legal, United States,
by Daniel Christian
On 12/27/2012,
in 21st century, budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, education technology, elearning, future of higher education, game-changing environment, internet, legislatures / government / legal, New "Amazon.com" of Higher Education, new business models, online learning, reinvent, staying relevant, United States, Virtual Reality (VR) / worlds / learning, virtual tutoring, vision/possibilities,
by Daniel Christian
From the January/February 2013 issue of The American Interest:
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Excerpts (emphasis DSC):
The most important part of the college bubble story—the one we will soon be hearing much more about—concerns the impending financial collapse of numerous private colleges and universities and the likely shrinkage of many public ones. And when that bubble bursts, it will end a system of higher education that, for all of its history, has been steeped in a culture of exclusivity*. Then we’ll see the birth of something entirely new as we accept one central and unavoidable fact: The college classroom is about to go virtual.
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Because recent history shows us that the internet is a great destroyer of any traditional business that relies on the sale of information. The internet destroyed the livelihoods of traditional stock brokers and bonds salesmen by throwing open to everyone access to the proprietary information they used to sell. The same technology enabled bankers and financiers to develop new products and methods, but, as it turned out, the experience necessary to manage it all did not keep up. Prior to the Wall Street meltdown, it seemed absurd to think that storied financial institutions like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers could disappear seemingly overnight. Until it happened, almost no one believed such a thing was possible. Well, get ready to see the same thing happen to a university near you, and not for entirely dissimilar reasons.
The higher-ed business is in for a lot of pain as a new era of creative destruction produces a merciless shakeout of those institutions that adapt and prosper from those that stall and die.
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But what happens when a limited supply of a sought-after commodity suddenly becomes unlimited? Prices fall. Yet here, on the cusp of a new era of online education, that is a financial reality that few American universities are prepared to face.
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Anyone who can access the internet—at a public library, for instance—no matter how poor or disadvantaged or isolated or uneducated he or she may be, can access the teachings of some of the greatest scholars of our time through open course portals. Technology is a great equalizer.
Big changes are coming, and old attitudes and business models are set to collapse as new ones rise. Few who will be affected by the changes ahead are aware of what’s coming. Severe financial contraction in the higher-ed industry is on the way, and for many this will spell hard times both financially and personally. But if our goal is educating as many students as possible, as well as possible, as affordably as possible, then the end of the university as we know it is nothing to fear. Indeed, it’s something to celebrate.
* The old way:
Colleges rise as they reject — from online.wsj.com
Schools invite more applications, then use denials to boost coveted rankings
Also relevant/see:
- A graph on earnings with a college degree — from educationstormfront by Andrew Barras
- Learning new lessons — from the Economist.com
Online courses are transforming higher education, creating new opportunities for the best and huge problems for the rest
On 12/17/2012,
in budgets, business side of he, Daniel S. Christian, faith, future of higher education, hearts -- matters of the heart, higher education, United States,
by Daniel Christian
If you build it, debt will come — a solid article from quickanded.com by Jeff Selingo
Excerpt (emphasis DSC):
When we read or hear stories in the news media these days about debt in higher education, we typically assume they are about the trillion dollars in student loans held by college graduates and their families.
But last week The New York Times put the spotlight on an often ignored angle to questions of debt in higher education: the amount of money owed by colleges and universities themselves.
“The pile of debt — $205 billion outstanding in 2011 at the colleges rated by Moody’s — comes at a time of increasing uncertainty in academia,” Andrew Martin of The Times wrote in a front-page story.
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Yet judging from the college officials quoted in The Times story, it seems they still don’t get that the financial model in higher education is forever changing. They still seem to believe that the model that has carried them for decades will continue.
The history of the United States is littered with industries that had similar hubris in the years or decade before they underwent massive change. Higher education is following that well-worn path.
Also see:
- Building a showcase campus, using an I.O.U. — from nytimes.com by Andrew Martin
From DSC:
I must confess that I really appreciate the new or significantly enhanced buildings on our campus (which was done via a successful campaign). However, I created the graphic below to encourage our development group and other such departments across the country — as well as the donors of those institutions — to also:
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When I created that graphic, I had the words of Steve Jobs in mind. Jobs specifically wanted Apple’s campaign from years ago to say, “Think different” (not think differently…as that changes the meaning, he asserted); along those lines, I’m suggesting, “Think virtual.”
An additional note for folks who are interested in the Bible:
- After reading John 4 (the conversation between Jesus and the Samaritan woman at the well), I could just hear the LORD saying…hmmm…nope…ultimately, you need to think spiritual.
On 12/17/2012,
in budgets, business side of he, changing business models, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, economics, education reform, experimentation, future of higher education, game-changing environment, leadership, legislatures / government / legal, new business models, staying relevant, strategy, student-related, surviving, United States,
by Daniel Christian
Combine the trends listed in this graphic:
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— from The Economics of Higher Education, Dec 2012 (pg 2)
…with the next several graphics…
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From 5/21/09
…and you can see that the Perfect Storm in Higher Ed has been amassed. Massive change is in the air. People will find a way to achieve their goals/objectives — one way or another. College is still a good call — but what “college” and “university life” will look like in 5 years will likely be very different from what they look like today.
There is no returning to the “good ol’ days” — things are not going back to the way they were 5-10 years ago. It’s time for massive — but controlled/intentional — experimentation within higher ed, to find out how best to use the Internet in order to promote learning (and, hopefully, to still make a living!).
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Some examples that illustrate that change is in the air…and that the conversation continues to move outside traditional institutions of higher education (I mention these not to dog higher ed, but to get us to innovate, to reinvent ourselves, and to stay relevant!)
Big idea 2013: College becomes optional — from LinkedIn.com by Ben Smith
Jailbreaking the degree: The end of the 4 year diploma — from onlineuniversities.com by Justin Marquis
Excerpt:
What’s wrong with getting a college degree? According to the grassroots movement, “Jailbreaking the Degree,” being pushed by radical education startup Degreed.com, quite a bit. The organization has identified several fundamental flaws with the long standing college degree process. It aims to overcome them and dramatically change the nature of learning and credentialing in the process. In order to justify their initiative they present some dramatic numbers on their website…
Degreed wants to jailbreak the college degree — from techcrunch.com by Rip Empson
Saying no to college — NYT.com by Alex Williams
Do a Google search on uncollege.org and see what you get
The rise of college alternatives— from huffingtonpost.com by Dan Schawbel
educreations.com: Teach what you know. Learn what you don’t.
On 12/13/2012,
in budgets, business side of he, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, disruption, experimentation, game-changing environment, legislatures / government / legal, new business models, reinvent, staying relevant, surviving,
by Daniel Christian
Addendum on 12/14/12:
- Big construction costs, MOOC disruption mean ominous cocktail for higher ed — from educationdive.com by Davide Savenije
Dive Summary:- After years of aggressive expansion efforts, higher education is facing the consequences — according to Moody’s, overall debt levels for rated institutions more than doubled from 2000 to 2011 while donations and investments shrank by more than 40% relative to the debt.
- While debt has swiftly reached a tipping point for universities, they are not alone — the total amount of student debt currently exceeds $1 trillion and nearly one in every six borrowers’ student loan balance is in default.
- Experts and school officials are predicting an imminent reshaping of the field of higher education — Harvard’s annual fiscal report claims “the need for change is clear” as institutions face a decreased “ability to generate […] new resources”.
- As prospective students become aware of the decreasing value of the higher ed degree, the sudden emergence of MOOCs are becoming an increasingly viable and economically-friendly alternative.
From DSC:
We had better step up the pace of innovating/experimenting – and move to do so quickly. But the problem is, moving quickly is not in the cultures of most of the more traditional institutions of higher education.
Also relevant:
- As debt rises and job prospects dim, some say it’s time to put a warning label on graduate school — from The Chronicle by Stacey Patton
This isn’t just the year of the massive open online course; it’s also the year of two other hot topics in higher education—student debt and a barren job market for graduating students.
On 12/07/2012,
in budgets, consortiums, education technology, higher education, innovation, strategy, student-related, videoconferencing,
by Daniel Christian
From Boardroom to Classroom — from insidehighered.com by Alexandra Tilsley
Excerpt:
By joining forces, the three universities hope to leverage the languages they don’t all have, affording students more options, and to deepen existing programs by, for example, facilitating collaboration between instructors of the same language at different institutions.
From DSC:
Higher-level courses at smaller colleges might want to look at this as well. If an economically-feasible minimum threshold can’t be reached on one campus, open it up to a consortium of institutions (similar to Semester Online).
On 11/06/2012,
in budgets, business, colleges, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, economics, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, leadership, reinvent, society, staying relevant, strategy, United States, vision/possibilities,
by Daniel Christian
On 09/14/2012,
in budgets, cost of getting a degree, hearts -- matters of the heart, higher education, K-12 related, Michigan, society,
by Daniel Christian
Excerpt:
Back in November 2005, when this year’s graduates were in sixth grade, the superintendent of Kalamazoo’s public schools, Janice M. Brown, shocked the community by announcing that unnamed donors were pledging to pay the tuition at Michigan’s public colleges, universities and community colleges for every student who graduated from the district’s high schools. All of a sudden, students who had little hope of higher education saw college in their future. Called the Kalamazoo Promise, the program — blind to family income levels, to pupils’ grades and even to disciplinary and criminal records — would be the most inclusive, most generous scholarship program in America.
Also see:
From DSC:
- I would like to thank the anonymous donors who created and continue to sustain the Kalamazoo Promise; and to recognize their humility and service to society. They didn’t announce their gifts with trumpets; rather, they quietly gave without wanting to put their names to these enormous, life-changing gifts. What a great example for many of the nation’s top 1%-5% to follow! It’s amazing what generous hearts can do. The LORD knows who did it and continues to do it.
On 09/11/2012,
in budgets, business side of he, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, Daniel S. Christian, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, new business models, reinvent,
by Daniel Christian
Technology and the broken higher education cost model: Insights from the Delta Cost Project — from Educause by Rita Kirshstein and Jane Wellman
Excerpt:
Although U.S. higher education has faced numerous crises and dilemmas in its history, the situation in which colleges and universities find themselves at the moment is indeed different. Shrinking public subsidies coupled with historic rises in tuitions come at the same time that colleges and universities have been tasked to dramatically increase the number of individuals with postsecondary degrees. Additionally, many of these students need financial aid, putting further strains on the higher education system. The stratification between rich and poor institutions in their access to resources is also growing. These conditions make the current “cost model” under which higher education has typically operated no longer sustainable and have led to college and university leaders examining alternative ways to deliver both high-quality and affordable higher education. These alternatives incorporate technology and include access to distance-delivered education and services, a focus on learners’ outcomes rather than inputs, and technologically sophisticated buildings and classrooms.
The changes are welcome and largely overdue in much of higher education, but unless the use of technology, whether in instruction or in the operation of the institution, is guided by an understanding of higher education costs and cost structures, its use will not fix the problem of a broken higher education cost model. This problem is not confined to the way that instruction is funded and delivered; rather, it is much broader, including the costs of academic and administrative overhead and the largely unexamined “fixed costs” that drive so much of institutional spending. To implement technological innovations that can improve both efficiency and effectiveness, leaders must be guided in their efforts by a strong understanding of the impact of the innovations on both costs and revenues, as well as on learning outcomes. Without this understanding, leaders are likely to follow the usual model of innovation in higher education: implementing program add-ons, which are sometimes successful and sometimes not but which inevitably increase costs rather than replacing or reducing them and ultimately fail to take hold in ways that will leverage systemic improvements.
On 07/23/2012,
in budgets, business side of he, change, cost of getting a degree, dangers of the status quo, game-changing environment, higher education, legislatures / government / legal, United States,
by Daniel Christian
Also see:
- A State-by-State Report Card on Public Postsecondary Education — from icw.uschamber.com
Excerpt:
But to reap these benefits fully, the nation clearly has a long way to go. Producing the additional degrees the United States needs would be a challenge in flush economic times; doing so in the current fiscal environment will require significant and difficult modifications.
. - A Sobering Look at College Affordability — from The Chronicle by Beckie Supiano
On 07/23/2012,
in 21st century, budgets, business side of he, change, changing business models, colleges, future of higher education, game-changing environment, higher education, innovation, leadership, new business models, organizational change, pace of change, reinvent, staying relevant, strategy, universities,
by Daniel Christian
The financially sustainable university — from bain.com, a Bain Brief by Jeff Denneen and Tom Dretle
Excerpts (emphasis DSC):
Still, at the majority of institutions, the pace of change is slower than it needs to be. Plenty of hurdles exist, including the belief that things will return to the way they always were. (Note: They won’t.) But the biggest obstacle is more fundamental: While leaders might have a sense of what needs to be done, they may not know how to achieve the required degree of change that will allow their institution not just to survive, but also thrive with a focused strategy and a sustainable financial base.
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Too often, stakeholders believe that the current cash crunch and need for change is a temporary phenomenon that will subside as the economy continues to improve. But those who see things this way probably haven’t been exposed to the data presented here and in other reports that show convincingly that this time is different. Faculty and other key stakeholders must be shown clear and compelling facts to disprove the “return to the status quo” notion and to clarify the corresponding negative implications and consequences of inaction.
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Colleges and Universities Raise $30.30 Billion in 2011 — from Council for Aid to Education (CAE)
Excerpts:
Contributions to the Nation’s Colleges and Universities at $30.30 Billion
Charitable contributions to colleges and universities in the United States increased 8.2 percent in 2011, reaching $30.30 billion, according to results of the annual Voluntary Support of Education (VSE) survey. The findings were released today by the Council for Aid to Education (CAE). Adjusted for inflation, giving increased 4.8 percent. Giving for capital purposes, such as endowments and buildings, increased 13.6 percent (10.1 percent, adjusted for inflation).
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Charitable Gifts Concentrated at the Top
As is true of the nonprofit sector overall, most of the charitable dollars go to a small number of institutions. Twenty-five percent of the responding institutions raised 86.3 percent of the dollars reported on the VSE survey. The next 25 percent account for under 10 percent, and the next two quartiles of institutions together account for less than 5 percent of the total.
From DSC:
My encouragement to Development Offices/Departments:
- In addition to thinking about facilities/the physical plant, also:
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